Support NeoGAF

[Chris1964]

The Monday leak was fake? If those super early leaked numbers don't agree neither with Dengeki I'll start to believe that ioi had something to do with them, since his site was the first to find them at 2ch. Please don't tell me he managed to invade even Japan.

Don't mix trackers people.

--------------------------------------------------------
| tracker | week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 |
|------------------------------------------------------|
| famitsu | 150.832|  54.289|  55.145|  50.000|  37.000|
| m-create| 151.783|  55.344|  51.055|  39.960|       -|
--------------------------------------------------------

 

[guina]

There also doesn't seem to be any new games next week to sustain the sales, except for a re-release of WKC EX version.

Yea, and after that there are 2 weeks with only western games. And finally in 3 weeks the PS3 will see some software with bayonetta, tekken 6 and way of samurai 3.

PS3 has a clear path down, no doubt about it.

 

[cvxfreak]

Next Pokemon HGSS restock is set for October 10, btw.

I'll take a gamble and bet Pokemon HGSS will outsell DQIX. HGSS look poised for 5 Million, while DQIX doesn't.

 

[ilbambino]

Well, Nintendo did announce the price drop like 3 days before it was effective so I do think there might be some truth to that.

Well, next week we will have a better picture of the market after Wii's price drop. I think we all can agree with that

 

[gkryhewy]

Maybe Nintendo's strategy is to continually iterate the DS and Wii platforms on alternating 36 month cycles until the end of time. Each can pick the other up when it's down.

 

[chris0701]

NGS 2 Bomba. I am not surprised.

 

[schuelma]

Well, next week we will have a better picture of the market after Wii's price drop. I think we all can agree with that

Well I think we can say it wasn't a very successful start in Japan... though if its true that it wasn't really marketed then Nintendo is dumber than I thought.

 

[Somnid]

It's pretty easy to say PS3's limiting factor had been price while Wii's was software. Especially because Wii is much more saturated in the market new breakout games are important to attract new constomers. For PS3 people who would have bought it didn't and so a price drop is more effective.

I will say a long term trend shift won't be made without software. It never has. PS3's sales will diminish over time and I'm not sure Sony has the means to revive them again. If FFXIII can't spark new interest Sony will run out of steam. Nintendo on the other hand is putting a lot of NSMB Wii but they also seem to have a few more chances in early 2010.

 

[Opiate]

I still struggle to understand the general acceptance of the Wii number.

In the week of the Wii's first price drop ever -- and typically, the first price drop has the largest effect -- it is outsold by the PS3. Yes, the PS3 had a price drop a month ago (Very different than a week ago: look at the PS3's first week after its price drop!) Yes, the Wii drop was nearly unannounced and occured later in the week.

But even with mitigating factors, the Wii is supposed to be the market leader, and it is being outsold in the week of its first price drop ever. That is very poor.

 

[cvxfreak]

Maybe Nintendo's strategy is to continually iterate the DS and Wii platforms on alternating 36 month cycles until the end of time. Each can pick the other up when it's down.

Looking back, the DS looked somewhat gloomy back in 2008 relative to the year before. It had been losing to the PSP nearly the whole year, too, unlike the Wii and PS3.

But then again, what are the chances of a Wii redesign that launches in Japan in November? Nil?

 

[schuelma]

I still struggle to understand the general acceptance of the Wii number.
.

I don't see many people accepting it.

 

[schuelma]

But then again, what are the chances of a Wii redesign that launches in Japan in November? Nil?

I think a new bundle with a CC Pro, Motion +, and WSR would do wonders.

 

[duckroll]

I don't see many people accepting it.

I have always accepted Sony-sama in my heart. It is time for false pagan gods to fade away, and the savior to return to our embrace.

 

[Serenity]

Same meme, without the risk of being wrong. I can't see NSMB fail to be a massive system seller during Christmas, or a Nintendo software based on a Vitality Sensor peripheral not being huge in Japan.

Are you assuming Wii sales would of been bad during christmas without NSMB? Sales will go up during the holiday even if nintedo released no games.

Also the meme has shifted from holding back software for motion plus to WSR to MH3 to black Wii to price cut and now NSMB.

 

[gkryhewy]

I still struggle to understand the general acceptance of the Wii number.

In the week of the Wii's first price drop ever -- and typically, the first price drop has the largest effect -- it is outsold by the PS3. Yes, the PS3 had a price drop a month ago (Very different than a week ago: look at the PS3's first week after its price drop!) Yes, the Wii drop was nearly unannounced and occured later in the week.

But even with mitigating factors, the Wii is supposed to be the market leader, and it is being outsold in the week of its first price drop ever. That is very poor.

WTF are you looking for? Gnashing of teeth? Nintendo to go third party laments?

 

[TTP]

If FFXIII can't spark new interest Sony will run out of steam.

That's highly unlikely (for FFXIII not to spark new interest). I believe it's gonna be pretty huge, followed by "ZOMG" Sony press releases.

 

[Frillen]

Wow.

So Nintendo's entire year-end game plan rests on NSMB's shoulders?

Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles and Tales of Graces will help though. I also think some people on this board underestimates Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games.

 

[Opiate]

WTF are you looking for? Gnashing of teeth? Nintendo to go third party laments?

Something other than "about what I expected."

I was expecting things like this: "Nintendo is in real trouble," or "This a very poor result," or "Nintendo may need to significantly rethink their strategy," or even "Nintendo has virtually no chance of hitting their profit OR hardware shipment projections." Any of those.

 

[gofreak]

That's highly unlikely (for FFXIII not to spark new interest). I believe it's gonna be pretty huge, followed by "ZOMG" Sony press releases.

IMO what will be perhaps more significant is what if any stimulus it'll provide for development of 'japanese' games on the system, and thus for supply of 'sales maintaining' games over the longer run. One would think between slim/pricecut/ff that the publishing landscape in Japan on PS3 ought to be improving.

 

[Drkirby]

If FFXIII can't spark new interest Sony will run out of steam.

I really don't think that will do much for them worldwide, unless the 360 version of the game is delayed or just bad. The best FFXIII can do is maybe spark some more intrest in the RPG genra, but even that is unlikely.

 

[gkryhewy]

Looking back, the DS looked somewhat gloomy back in 2008 relative to the year before. It had been losing to the PSP nearly the whole year, too, unlike the Wii and PS3.

But then again, what are the chances of a Wii redesign that launches in Japan in November? Nil?

I was thinking more like 36 months from the DSi, but I see now that'd be too long a cycle to do the trick. Still, the notion of alternating platform iterations could have something to it.

And schuelma's bundle suggestion is possible for Nov/Dec as well.

"Nintendo is in real trouble,"

Real trouble? Really? What kind of trouble? No one expects them to hit their forecasts this year, and that fact is already priced into the shares.

 

[DangerousDave]

Are you assuming Wii sales would of been bad during christmas without NSMB? Sales will go up during the holiday even if nintedo released no games.

Also the meme has shifted from holding back software for motion plus to WSR to MH3 to black Wii to price cut and now NSMB.

All sells go up during the holiday season. The question is which will be the best-selling gift, Wii or PS3.

If PS3 sells more than Wii in the overall holiday season, Nintendo will need to react in any other way than a price drop, because we can enter in a situation where the PS3 will have a higher ground than Wii. Something completly unexpected.

 

[Loudninja]

All sells go up during the holiday season. The question is which will be the best-selling gift, Wii or PS3.

If PS3 sells more than Wii in the overall holiday season, Nintendo will need to react in any other way than a price drop, because we can enter in a situation where the PS3 will have a higher ground than Wii. Something completly unexpected.

Its going to be intersecting both systems have a major game for the holidays.

 

[Vinnk]

Nintendo is in real trouble
This a very poor result
Nintendo may need to significantly rethink their strategy
Nintendo has virtually no chance of hitting their profit OR hardware shipment projections

 

[Somnid]

That's highly unlikely (for FFXIII not to spark new interest). I believe it's gonna be pretty huge, followed by "ZOMG" Sony press releases.

Big is fine but also very likely to be front loaded. Will it keep people buying PS3s for months afterward or will it just spike sales again? Monster Hunter wasn't helpful for Wii in the long run.

 

[Opiate]

Real trouble? Really? What kind of trouble? No one expects them to hit their forecasts this year, and that fact is already priced into the shares.

Not that I disagree with this, but if that's the only response you have when I gave four separate possible responses off the top of my head, then I'd assume you largely agree with me.

And of course, as those four responses are off the top of my head, they aren't intended to be exhaustive. They are simply the first few things I thought of that might show what I believe to be appropriate alarm and concern for Nintendo's current situation.

Let me put it this way: the argument against the Wii's declining sales has consistently been that Nintendo hasn't pulled any punches yet. They hadn't done any new colors, or a price drop, or a new form factor. Well, now they've done a price drop and new colors, there is no new form factor on the horizon, and they're still down vastly from where they were last year, let alone 2 years ago.

Nintendo has shown extreme resilience throughout their history, so I'm not worried about them long term. However, in regards to the near future (say, the next 1-2 years), it seems entirely plausible that Nintendo will rapidly run through all the "punches" they had held back on, and see very little result. In fact, that seems likely to me, as the punch which has historically been the most significant -- a price drop -- has done so little.

Nintendo is in real trouble
This a very poor result
Nintendo may need to significantly rethink their strategy
Nintendo has virtually no chance of hitting their profit OR hardware shipment projections

This guy has great ideas. Listen to him.

 

[Zoe]

I really don't think that will do much for them worldwide, unless the 360 version of the game is delayed or just bad. The best FFXIII can do is maybe spark some more intrest in the RPG genra, but even that is unlikely.

Worldwide has nothing to do with this. Sony has many other games to help them in the west, but FFXIII is the last substantially big game in Japan until GT5 hits.

 

[schuelma]

Thanks Vinnk. That should placate Opiate for maybe 5 minutes or so.

 

[Chris1964]

Nintendo has shown extreme resilience throughout their history, so I'm not worried about them long term. However, in regards to the near future (say, the next 1-2 years), it seems entirely plausible that Nintendo will rapidly run through all the "punches" they had held back on, and see very little result. In fact, that seems likely to me, as the punch which has historically been the most significant -- a price drop -- has done so little.

You are confusing Wii situation in Japan (mainly) with Nintendo situation worldwide.

 

[markatisu]

Something other than "about what I expected."

I was expecting things like this: "Nintendo is in real trouble," or "This a very poor result," or "Nintendo may need to significantly rethink their strategy," or even "Nintendo has virtually no chance of hitting their profit OR hardware shipment projections." Any of those.

Give it time, those posts will come. I mean Dragona has not even chimed in yet

 

[schuelma]

Opiate. I think you also have to criticize Nintendo for doing too little. I've repeated this a few times, but what the hell- in its weakest region, Wii is at its highest price. I think Nintendo could have done a lot more here than a 5000 yen price drop and a PR anouncement.

 

[gkryhewy]

Nintendo has shown extreme resilience throughout their history, so I'm not worried about them long term. However, in regards to the near future (say, the next 1-2 years)

Yes, hopefully their hard-won resilience will carry them through through these harsh next 1-2 years with the highest selling and most profitable portable and home consoles heading into the next console cycle. Will they have enough bread and molasses to keep them alive as they rake in the licensing fees? Do they have enough shoes, or will they be down to socks? Is Iwata Washington Enough to will them through this cold Valley Forge winter?

 

[KtSlime]

I really don't think that will do much for them worldwide, unless the 360 version of the game is delayed or just bad. The best FFXIII can do is maybe spark some more intrest in the RPG genre, but even that is unlikely.

That's fine, because we are talking about Japan, not the World after all.

PS: FFXIII doesn't come out on 360 in Japan.

 

[markatisu]

Opiate. I think you also have to criticize Nintendo for doing too little. I've repeated this a few times, but what the hell- in its weakest region, Wii is at its highest price. I think Nintendo could have done a lot more here than a 5000 yen price drop and a PR anouncement.

It is puzzling, I mean they are leading in the US by a healthy margin and last night I saw a bunch of commercials touting the new low price of the Wii and encouraging people to get Wii Fit + for $19

But in its worst region which needs the most help (at least the US has 3rd party support) they drop the price and do a press release?!?

 

[EXGN]

I will say a long term trend shift won't be made without software. It never has. PS3's sales will diminish over time and I'm not sure Sony has the means to revive them again. If FFXIII can't spark new interest Sony will run out of steam. Nintendo on the other hand is putting a lot of NSMB Wii but they also seem to have a few more chances in early 2010.

I don't know, PS3 seems to have a decent line up running into Spring 2010. FF13 and Resonance of Fate in December, Star Ocean 4, Yakuza 4, Gran Turismo 5 and God of War 3 all in the first few months of 2010. Not to mention the motion controls and games also hitting in March.

I'm really curious to see how games like Uncharted and InFamous will do, especially in light of Uncharted's phenom Famitsu score.

 

[Durante]

I've repeated this a few times, but what the hell- in its weakest region, Wii is at its highest price.

It's worth repeating since it's a good point. I believe Wii is doing well in here in Europe, but it's also just slightly above half the price of PS3 and includes a pack-in.

 

[cvxfreak]

So there's a new Taiko game coming to Wii on November 19? Didn't know that.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/10/07/taiko_drum_master_wii/

 

[Parl]

I still struggle to understand the general acceptance of the Wii number.

In the week of the Wii's first price drop ever -- and typically, the first price drop has the largest effect -- it is outsold by the PS3. Yes, the PS3 had a price drop a month ago (Very different than a week ago: look at the PS3's first week after its price drop!) Yes, the Wii drop was nearly unannounced and occured later in the week.

But even with mitigating factors, the Wii is supposed to be the market leader, and it is being outsold in the week of its first price drop ever. That is very poor.

I've been of the opinion that it wasn't definitely a good idea for Wii to drop in price. I argued the case for it possible to be a mistake based on lossed revenues not being made up by extra revenue/profit from more systems sold and more software sold.

I discussion with, I think, charlequin, moved me less from believing it fairly likely a price drop would be a mistake, to about 50/50. I'm still about 50/50 because one of my reasons for thinking it'd be a mistake was my belief that a price drop wouldn't cause more than a fairly minor increase in long-term sales for the system.

What's important is to see the increases in short-term and long-term sales for Wii in NA and Europe first, as these days, Japan is about on par with UK (though that is because the UK market is the largest video game market in the world per capita, by far).

On saying that, I think the affect in Nother American and Europe will be bigger than this meager increase we've seen for Wii in Japan. NSMBWii may make a minor difference though.

 

[Opiate]

I hope I've shown by now that I'm a reasonable person.

Gkr, I'm not suggesting that Nintendo is in danger of dropping in to losses or going third party or anything hysterical like that.

But the shape of the curve is nearly as important as its size. Consider, as an example, a company that is making 4 billion dollars in profit a year. That's very good, right? It's hard to argue against it, as it would put this company in the top .0001% of companies in the world. That's the size of the curve.

However, what if this company was, just two years ago, making 10 billion in profit? Followed by a year of 6 billion, and now down to 4. This is important to note, as it suggests the company is struggling to maintain performance. That's the shape.

 

[test_account]

It is puzzling, I mean they are leading in the US by a healthy margin and last night I saw a bunch of commercials touting the new low price of the Wii and encouraging people to get Wii Fit + for $19

But in its worst region which needs the most help (at least the US has 3rd party support) they drop the price and do a press release?!?

Hasnt there been any TV ads/commercials in Japan regarding the pricedrop? I think that there has been in-store ads for the Wii pricedrop though, but what about TV ads?

 

[Pureauthor]

Something other than "about what I expected."

I was expecting things like this: "Nintendo is in real trouble," or "This a very poor result," or "Nintendo may need to significantly rethink their strategy," or even "Nintendo has virtually no chance of hitting their profit OR hardware shipment projections." Any of those.

What if all the below statements are indeed 'about what I expected'?

 

[Chris1964]

So there's a new Taiko game coming to Wii on November 19? Didn't know that.

No one knew that. And that it leaks just one day before the retailer meeting gives some hopes for more announcements tomorrow.

 

[Opiate]

What if all the below statements are indeed 'about what I expected'?

Then you, sir, are a reasonable man. Although it would probably be worth saying "About what I expected, which is very poor."

As stated earlier, I did predict that the Wii price drop would have a noticably smaller impact than the PS3 or 360 price drops have had. However, did I think it would be less than 1/5th the impact, judging by the first week sales on absolute terms? Less than 1/10, in terms of relative growth?

I hadn't expected that.

 

[onipex]

I don't know what to think about the Wii numbers. I don't believe that the cost was keeping people from buying system, but I still think the numbers should be higher.

The PS3 had a higher bump , but price was more of a factor for it. The PS3 also had the slim model released and history shows that slim models raise sales.


It will be interesting to see who comes out on top for YTD sales. Although I don't think it will matter much.

 

[obonicus]

I have always accepted Sony-sama in my heart. It is time for false pagan gods to fade away, and the savior to return to our embrace.

Tretton spoke the truth and had stones cast at him, but we all know it's time to turn our back on the apostates and false prophets. Sony's infinite love extends even to us prodigal children.

 

[Kenka]

Why the hell didn't we get Joysound 2 and Taiko 2 a lot earlier ? The first ones were virtually the only third-partiy successes between last holiday and MH3...

 

[gkryhewy]

However, what if this company was, just two years ago, making 10 billion in profit? Followed by a year of 6 billion, and now down to 4. This is important to note, as it suggests the company is struggling to maintain performance. That's the shape.

I'm not sure whether you're using Nintendo's actual revenue figures or approximations. My point is simply that there's no need for crazy alarmism. Even as Wii has "struggled" (still likely to settle out as the highest-selling home console on a monthly basis in all territories over the next two years), DS has once again found another gear. As has been rightly pointed out, Wii may have missed an opportunity in Japan to really change the game. To, say, double the size of the console market. It's now simply relegated to being a run-of-the-mill market leader. But it's still an enormously profitable device, and an enormously valuable brand that did not exist 3 years ago.

The market has already crunched the numbers. Did you know that Nintendo shares are presently worth less than they were *before* the Wii launched?

However, did I think it would be less than 1/5th the impact, judging by the first week sales on absolute terms? Less than 1/10, in terms of relative growth?

This is more than a little disingenuous given the relative positions of the Wii and PS3 prior to their respective price drops, as well as the absence of a hardware re-launch in the case of the Wii. A better point of comparison would with price drops of comparable scale from prior console cycles.

Regarding your initial salvo about being outsold in its price drop week, let's wait for the MC numbers.

 

[test_account]

What's the LTD of Inazuma 1?

Garaph.info has Inazuma 1 LTD at 365,674 (Famitsu numbers). Inazuma 2 selling relatively close to Inazuma 1's LTD in just 1 week is a pretty good preformance i must say! Maybe Inazuma would have had a higher LTD if it had 2 versions like Inazuma 2 does though, but still, i must say that Inazuma 2 has sold really great so far, and especially compared to how Inazuma 1 sold (which also sold pretty good i think)

 

[schuelma]

This is not an excuse, but I think one difference is the timing. Nintendo announced the drop like 3 days before it happened, which no doubt minimized the sales it would have lost out on between the anniuncement and the drop. If Nintendo had announced the drop two weeks before it hit like Sony did, I imagine the first number would probably have been closer to 50-55k. Still not good and in reality no different than what we have, but it looks like a bigger impact.

Then you, sir, are a reasonable man. Although it would probably be worth saying "About what I expected, which is very poor."

As stated earlier, I did predict that the Wii price drop would have a noticably smaller impact than the PS3 or 360 price drops have had. However, did I think it would be less than 1/5th the impact, judging by the first week sales on absolute terms? Less than 1/10, in terms of relative growth?

I hadn't expected that.

 

[wrowa]

Well I think we can say it wasn't a very successful start in Japan... though if its true that it wasn't really marketed then Nintendo is dumber than I thought.

Well, has Nintendo marketed the price cut anywhere in the world? Don't know about America, but in Europe Nintendo hasn't advertised it at all. I was actually a little surprised to see the price cut already happened, since I haven't heard anything about it, except for that tiny PR.

But even with mitigating factors, the Wii is supposed to be the market leader, and it is being outsold in the week of its first price drop ever. That is very poor.

Maybe the Wii is supposed to be the market leader, but in fact it's (by now) only the console that struggles not as much as its competitors. It's the market leader of the struggling consoles. That's not worth that much.


I'm really curious to see how NSMB Wii will do later this year. It is Mario game, so good sales should be granted. But will it sell as good as Nintendo hopes? The situation kinda reminds me of Animal Crossing last year. Nintendo is "porting" one of the most successful DS games to the Wii and hopes that it will be as huge a hit as on the DS.

Last year it didn't work out. Will it work out this year? For sure, even taking the enormous success of AC:WW into account, the Mario franchise is still far bigger than AC. But AC Wii and NSMB Wii have another thing in common: while AC Wii was a lazy effort, NSMB at least looks like a lazy effort, too. I wonder if people might end up not buying it, because it reminds them too much of the disappointment that AC Wii was. And anyway, we don't even know if people actually want a 2D Mario on consoles or if the success of a 2D Mario platformer is limited to a handheld. Again: just as the huge success of AC seems to be limited to handhelds.