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Media Create Sales: Sep 28 - Oct 4
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
vicissitudes
Banned
:lol :lol :loljett said:
I'm in tears.
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
Jett!!!!!!! Splain youself now!!!
:lol :lol :lol
m.i.s.
Banned
V_Arnold said:
Consider the scope and ambition of Yoshi's Island on the SNES as compared to its immediate predecessor, Super Mario World.
Has the [Nintendo] gaming industry sunk this low that we're now supposed to be impressed by a remake of a remake?
I know this is a sales age thread so I'll keep it brief. I played New Super Mario Bros DS and it feels like a tribute game, a cheap self-parody. Nintendo are much better than this: look at Super Mario Land, Super Mario Land 2, Wario Land, Wario Land 2 or Wario Land 3 - all games where Nintendo take a side-step and expand and enrich the themes of the mario universe without parodying it.
Seriously, I'm just not drinking the kool-aid.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
Blue Dragon. 
The only game I enjoyed on 360 and I really REALLY hoped the DS game would sell enough for a 360 sequel.
The only game I enjoyed on 360 and I really REALLY hoped the DS game would sell enough for a 360 sequel.JoshuaJSlone
Member
GBA to GBASP: 20 monthsMojojo said:
GBASP to GBM: 31 months
DS to DS Lite: 16 months.
DS Lite to DSi: 32 months
PSP to PSP-2000: 21 months
PSP-2000 to PSP-3000: 12 months
PSP-3000 to PSP Go: 14 months
DSi to June 2010: 19 months
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
duckroll said:
Perhaps, but I was kind of under the impression that the reason Microsoft let the game go to the DS, despite it being their highest selling Japanese 360 game, was because they knew the DS was the RPG system, and wanted to really establish the franchise before putting a 360 sequel proper. That way more people would be aware of and be fans of the series before jumping in.
But it seems everyone involved really fucked it up.
Cosmonaut X
Member
duckroll said:
Well, it is Mistwalker...
onken
Member
donny2112 said:
My estimate gives a best case scenario of 33% which wouldn't make it the worst legs ever but you go ahead and believe what you like. I would also argue that unlike the handhelds, the Wii has no way near the same amount of software competition, leading to more front-loaded numbers.
We'll see.
charlequin
Banned
onken said:
You do see that 26% first week number attached to SMG there, right?
Nirolak said:
BTW, these numbers don't quite work in the way you want them to, as they're not comparing things in the same way.
For ex: The numbers you're using for the Wii are 'as of now,' which suggests the Wii won't sell another unit between now and the time NSMB Wii reaches those predicted numbers. The numbers you're using for the DS, on the other hand, use current numbers. (For these comparisons to be the same, you'd have to use imaginary Wii HW numbers for whenever NMSB Wii reaches the 2-3 million mark.)
A better comparison might be to use first-week numbers (real for the DS, predicted for the Wii) for the titles and numbers at the time of the games' release for HW - if that makes any sense...
Also, isn't NSMB considered one of *the* games that took DS HW sales to the stratosphere?
Anyway, I still say between 2 and 3 million (when all is said and done) is a good number...
gkrykewy said:
It also would have to ignore the other console Marios. Sunshine is the only one close to the best case scenario using his numbers. Worst case would be 50%, which is the worst 1st week % for any game with Mario in the title since 1996 regardless of system (e.g. main games, spinoffs, whatever).
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Not measurably. DS was already putting up huge numbers and heavily in shortage mode in Japan, and the only reason there was a hardware bump the week of NSMB was because they held some back just before.d+pad said:
Week 19 some was held back, week 21 NSMB released.
I realize it's a flawed comparison on a few levels, but that's why I noted it in the original post.d+pad said:
I'm not sure how to generate a graph of the attach rate of NSMB versus the Wii installed base over time though without looking up each individual week.
I was just aiming for some approximations of what an attach rate would be assuming the Wii hardware itself didn't change much. If it goes up by a million over the next year though, 2.6 million will be about the exact same as the attach rate as the DS, which might actually be an interesting note about the similarities of the Wii and DS audiences, at least in terms of Mario.
slaughterking
Member
It is not necessarily selling beyond expectations. It's just selling very well in it's own right. The first week numbers should be close to what Persona 3 did - leaving everything else from ethelred's list behind.apujanata said:
And there really is no reason to expect a very traditional SMT to sell just as well as a Persona, which is pretty much the most popular SMT series right now.
grandjedi6
Master of the Google Search
Because:apujanata said:
1.) Your comparing First Day sales with First Week sales
2.) Persona is Atlus's biggest franchise nowadays and beats out the mainline SMT series.
3.) Its not 2003 anymore and the Japanese market is nowhere near as strong. Plus DS games tend to be not as front loaded as PS2 games.
At least that's what I'd argue
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I have run some blind tests. People are unable to tell which half of each image represents the DS version.Dragona Akehi said:
FWIW I'm looking forward to NSMB Wii, but I'm also in the "It doesn't seem to do anything Wii-specific" camp. I'm sure somewhere in my post history you'd find me saying I doubted any 2D console Mario because anything they'd want to do in a 2D console Mario game could be done as well in a 2D portable Mario game. I, of course, have added that to my list of successful predictions alongside "No machine called Game Boy will lose the ability to play original Game Boy games." and "No DS will remove the GBA slot."
I've been gone for the weekend, and really don't feel like wading back into the New Super Mario Bros. Wii sales debate. I'll just let my prior posts on the subject (along with the actual sales predictions I made) speak for themselves, and I guess we'll all see how things play out two months from now.
I can tell which is which, but I agree with your overall point here. If there are several magnitudes of difference between the visuals in the two games, I'm certainly not seeing them. I think the Wii game looks nice, but I thought the DS game looked nice, too. And while I think the Wii game has a clear improvement in the graphics department, it's not a particularly big one.
Well, two other individuals have mostly addressed this, and their comments were fairly accurate. But just to elaborate, my perspective is this:
First, while the Etrian Odyssey games performed very well and Devil Survivor performed well relative to the other games made by that particular team, there was no proven guarantee that the Atlus fanbase would transfer over to the DS for a true Shin Megami Tensei. My belief has typically been that the fanbase is dedicated enough that such a move was likely (take the EO fans and mix in the SMT fans, and you've got success), but it was by no means guaranteed. Second, there was also no firm guarantee that an old school SMT title would perform well these days, given Persona's current importance to the company.
Third, well... you say it yourself: comparisons to Atlus's DS games versus comparisons to their larger PS2 games. Who is to say for sure whether it would have performed like a big PS2 title or like their other DS games? Fourth, as Ducky noted previously, while the game would certainly make a profit for Atlus at even 100k or so, I think they're clearly expecting more of the game than that -- noting that it's the first legitimate SMT game in five years, notwithstanding the fact that this appears to be a game Atlus intends to build upon in the future (designing and animating hundreds of demon sprites for the DS, also known as the Nocturne approach, is mainly worth it if that gives you a framework to use in later games), and that would've been for naught if this game hadn't taken off.
You say that the game performed "as expected" compared to Persona 3 or 4, but I don't think that's entirely correct. It performed as I would have hoped, but I don't think it's fair to say that the game just performed "as expected," given that it easily could have performed worse. We'll have to wait a few days more, obviously, to see how the first day sales shifted into first week sales, and whether expectations continue to be met. I'm looking forward to that, natch, but I'm pretty pleased just based on the first day sales. As to your question of why people like D or myself are happy about this, it's pretty simple. Happy that Kaneko's team is clearly going to have a big success here (this game's first day sales virtually beating Raidou 2's first week sales presages good things) which means he'll get to keep making new games; happy that an old school SMT is faring well, which means we won't just continue to get nothing but Persona; happy that Atlus's attempt to create a framework for future DS games is proving successful, which suggests more good games from them in the future.
Is this sufficient clarification?
JoshuaJSlone said:
I can tell which is which, but I agree with your overall point here. If there are several magnitudes of difference between the visuals in the two games, I'm certainly not seeing them. I think the Wii game looks nice, but I thought the DS game looked nice, too. And while I think the Wii game has a clear improvement in the graphics department, it's not a particularly big one.
apujanata said:
Well, two other individuals have mostly addressed this, and their comments were fairly accurate. But just to elaborate, my perspective is this:
First, while the Etrian Odyssey games performed very well and Devil Survivor performed well relative to the other games made by that particular team, there was no proven guarantee that the Atlus fanbase would transfer over to the DS for a true Shin Megami Tensei. My belief has typically been that the fanbase is dedicated enough that such a move was likely (take the EO fans and mix in the SMT fans, and you've got success), but it was by no means guaranteed. Second, there was also no firm guarantee that an old school SMT title would perform well these days, given Persona's current importance to the company.
Third, well... you say it yourself: comparisons to Atlus's DS games versus comparisons to their larger PS2 games. Who is to say for sure whether it would have performed like a big PS2 title or like their other DS games? Fourth, as Ducky noted previously, while the game would certainly make a profit for Atlus at even 100k or so, I think they're clearly expecting more of the game than that -- noting that it's the first legitimate SMT game in five years, notwithstanding the fact that this appears to be a game Atlus intends to build upon in the future (designing and animating hundreds of demon sprites for the DS, also known as the Nocturne approach, is mainly worth it if that gives you a framework to use in later games), and that would've been for naught if this game hadn't taken off.
You say that the game performed "as expected" compared to Persona 3 or 4, but I don't think that's entirely correct. It performed as I would have hoped, but I don't think it's fair to say that the game just performed "as expected," given that it easily could have performed worse. We'll have to wait a few days more, obviously, to see how the first day sales shifted into first week sales, and whether expectations continue to be met. I'm looking forward to that, natch, but I'm pretty pleased just based on the first day sales. As to your question of why people like D or myself are happy about this, it's pretty simple. Happy that Kaneko's team is clearly going to have a big success here (this game's first day sales virtually beating Raidou 2's first week sales presages good things) which means he'll get to keep making new games; happy that an old school SMT is faring well, which means we won't just continue to get nothing but Persona; happy that Atlus's attempt to create a framework for future DS games is proving successful, which suggests more good games from them in the future.
Is this sufficient clarification?
Dragona Akehi
Retired
ethelred said:
I'm going to have to disagree here. The pictures Josh has posted are not fair in any sense of the word. The DS ones are resized with a filter to soften their look. The actual DS game has jaggy polygons everywhere, and Mario is absolutely filled to the brim with seams (which had for the most part disappeared in early 3D modelling during the N64/PSX era). It was pretty bad.
Here, they look more similar thanks to the resizing and filtering process, also making NSMBWii look worse, due to the resizing.
That timeline would have PSP GO out one year ago in Japan. PSP1k -> 2k was ~33months. Though that still agrees with the rest of the list anyway.JoshuaJSlone said:
I'd argue NDS version is not helped by blowing it up either - it doesn't look like a blurry mess the way I remember it.Dragona said:
Angelus Errare
Banned
_dementia said:
It should be ahead of NG2 next report. NG2 is at 48,945 (well as of 12-22-2008 Famitsu report)
grandjedi6 said:Because:
1.) Your comparing First Day sales with First Week sales
2.) Persona is Atlus's biggest franchise nowadays and beats out the mainline SMT series.
3.) Its not 2003 anymore and the Japanese market is nowhere near as strong. Plus DS games tend to be not as front loaded as PS2 games.
At least that's what I'd argue
I'd also argue the general premise of the two series are different and SJ is a corridor crawler as opposed to Persona 3/4 and Nocturne, which are relatively standard third person rpgs.
HK-47 said:
We're getting pretty far afield here, but I can't let this pass.
From what we know of Strange Journey, it's no more a "corridor crawler" than Shin Megami Tensei 1 and 2. And I'd dispute the idea that Nocturne is that far removed from that, so as to be classified as just a standard third person RPG. I don't think there's much different about Nocturne's structure compared to the earlier SMT games outside of its first-person vs. third-person nature, and frankly, if you play Nocturne in the first-person mode built into the game, it's pretty clear that even so far as that one difference goes, the game was still primarily designed around the ideals of first-person dungeon crawling.
HK-47 said:
Right, but it makes it pretty clear that even though the dungeons are all naturally played in third person, they were still designed the same as first person dungeons. It's no less a corridor crawler than the other Shin Megami Tensei games -- you're still spending 90% of your game time in dungeons, and almost all of those dungeons primarily consist of corridors or opened-up block areas connected by corridors because, as mentioned, it was designed to work in first person.
Warren Ellis
Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
..what ?
Allan Holdsworth
Member
My prediction for NSMBWii
FW: 800k
LTD: 3.6m
Can't see it selling less than 2.5m, worst case scenario.
FW: 800k
LTD: 3.6m
Can't see it selling less than 2.5m, worst case scenario.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
You are correct, sir.Fafalada said:
Main reason I did that was because doing a non-blurry resize that isn't multiplying height and width by integer values tends to be even worse. In retrospect choosing an in-between size so I could straight up double the DS portions might've been better.
I was being facetious. The games definitely share a similar look, but putting them side by side the Wii version's advantages in resolution, detail, and even play area are more apparent than comparing Wii images with memories of the DS version.Warren Ellis said:
That looks great. Fuck the haters.JoshuaJSlone said:I have run some blind tests. People are unable to tell which half of each image represents the DS version.
FWIW I'm looking forward to NSMB Wii, but I'm also in the "It doesn't seem to do anything Wii-specific" camp. I'm sure somewhere in my post history you'd find me saying I doubted any 2D console Mario because anything they'd want to do in a 2D console Mario game could be done as well in a 2D portable Mario game. I, of course, have added that to my list of successful predictions alongside "No machine called Game Boy will lose the ability to play original Game Boy games." and "No DS will remove the GBA slot."
The only issue I have with it are the 3P 4P Toads. Who would want to play as generic Toads? So lame.
HK-47 said:
There's nothing really standard about SMT3. We're talking about a game with no towns, random encounters everywhere in the game, and all the story development in the game is found by progressing in dungeons and talking to NPCs within dungeons. Aside from being third person, what does the game share in common with Persona 3/4? Pray tell.
vicissitudes
Banned
How well do people think Uncharted 2 will sell? It got a 9/9/9/10 in Famitsu and it's pretty high on Amazon JP (take it for what it's worth). More than Halo 3 ODST?
Warren Ellis
Banned
Jonnyram said:
way too much.. 140k lifetime at most.
