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[LiquidMetal14]

PS3 VS Wii end of the year should be good. Wii has NSMBW, TOG, and Samurai Warriors 3. PS3 has FF13 and PES. I think the PS3 has a lot more wild cards though, like Bayonetta, 3DGH, and End of Eternity.

And have fighters really fallen from prominence in Japan? Everyone's discounting Tekken 6, isn't that franchise still pretty huge in Japan?

It does still have pull. Hard to say how much of an impact on HW it will have.

 

[EXGN]

I see the Dynasty Warriors Strikeforce in the list there. Is it the exact same game as the PSP version or have they made some enhancements? Seems like it would be pretty cool being internet playable on the PS3. Any idea when it's headed to the US? 2010 sometime I imagine?

Pretty much. It also has Ninja Gaiden characters, which I don't the the PSP one had, and yes, it does have online. It's out in the US in early 2010.

 

[markatisu]

Yeah I agree with you here.

It's more the budget that's the question since they have a 100+ person team making it.

I doubt Ubisoft cares at this point since they have already rebooted the game once thus taking a loss on everything from the 1st version oF RS2

But I expect them to push this as hard as they do things like Assassins Creed, Splinter Cell, and their other major IP's. With a M+ bundle for added value I think anyone who claims this game will lowball into the 150-400k ww area (or the combined sales that we know of for the two Sega IP's) at launch is high

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Bingo. Wii has the best year end release schedule since... ever? PS3 puts all hopes on FF XIII and maybe Winning Eleven 2010.

PS3 also has Tekken 6 and DBZ Raging Blast as decent sellers. The problem for Nintendo is that Sony have all the momentum and one huge, massive megaton of a game incoming.

As far as potential sales go, the two consoles would appear to be neck and neck (Roughly the same number of 200-300k games and roughly the same amount of 0-100k games) with NSMB Wii and FF13 on either side.

The key here is that Sony have momentum on their side and FF13 is sure to be much more front loaded than NSMB. I reckon that Sony is going to "win" this holiday season in Japan.

Nintendo should be worried.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

And have fighters really fallen from prominence in Japan? Everyone's discounting Tekken 6, isn't that franchise still pretty huge in Japan?

Tekken 4 and 5 did about 350K each counting their Best versions, but even 5 was nearly five years ago. PSP's Dark Resurrection did a bit over 200K.

 

[schuelma]

PS3 VS Wii end of the year should be good. Wii has NSMBW, TOG, and Samurai Warriors 3. PS3 has FF13 and PES. I think the PS3 has a lot more wild cards though, like Bayonetta, 3DGH, and End of Eternity.

And have fighters really fallen from prominence in Japan? Everyone's discounting Tekken 6, isn't that franchise still pretty huge in Japan?

Wii also has Crystal Bearers and Taiko Wii. The latter especially should be a big seller. It definitely should be interesting If I had to predict I would go with Wii as I always have because I think NSMB Wii combined with a 20,000 yen price could be really big during the holidays, as well as Nintendo just naturally doing better during the holidays- as an example, Wii sold over 400,000 units in December off of Animal Crossing Wii and Taiko.

 

[onipex]

So this is probably obvious and all, but if next January February Wii is dropping to early 2009 pace (20K and lower), can we say that Wii is in real trouble in Japan? I mean, Nintendo has certainly dropped the ball but they do have a very solid holiday lineup and a new lower price and there is certainly nothing announced that seems like a game changer for next year. (I'd add that the same holds true for PS3 if it goes back down to 10-15K next year).

Agree, disagree?

For Wii we will wait for __ Wii VS game.

For PS3 we will wait for.... GOW3? I;m not sure how well that game does in Japan.

 

[schuelma]

The key here is that Sony have momentum on their side and FF13 is sure to be much more front loaded than NSMB. I reckon that Sony is going to "win" this holiday season in Japan.

Nintendo should be worried.

I think NSMB Wii could be every bit the megaton as FF13 or more. It will also be available for the entire month of December, in contrast to FF13.

 

[markatisu]

PS3 also has Tekken 6 and DBZ Raging Blast as decent sellers. The problem for Nintendo is that Sony have all the momentum and one huge, massive megaton of a game incoming.

As far as potential sales go, the two consoles would appear to be neck and neck (Roughly the same number of 200-300k games and roughly the same amount of 0-100k games) with NSMB Wii and FF13 on either side.

The key here is that Sony have momentum on their side and FF13 is sure to be much more front loaded than NSMB. I reckon that Sony is going to "win" this holiday season in Japan.

Nintendo should be worried.

The question though is how much hardware will FFXIII move? NSMB Wii has the potential to grab DS users who have not yet moved over, that could be the difference

 

[LiquidMetal14]

This lead the Wii has for YTD statistics may be too much for PS3 to overcome. Unless FF13 drives HW through the roof it will tip in Wii's favor.

 

[zero_suit]

I think NSMB Wii could be every bit the megaton as FF13 or more. It will also be available for the entire month of December, in contrast to FF13.

NSMB Wii will outsell FF13 easily.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

I still can't get over how well and truly Nintendo fucked the Wii over in Japan. If you had suggested the Wii would be lagging so badly two years from now you'd have been laughed right out of the thread.

I mean shit, Nintendo couldn't have PLANNED to have tanked this badly...

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

For PS3 we will wait for.... GOW3? I;m not sure how well that game does in Japan.

Including two rereleases, the first God of War is at about 60K. The others less.

 

[jman2050]

The console market is hilariously bad right now.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

I still can't get over how well and truly Nintendo fucked the Wii over in Japan. If you had suggested the Wii would be lagging so badly two years from now you'd have been laughed right out of the thread.

I mean shit, Nintendo couldn't have PLANNED to have tanked this badly...

That highly scientific graph of yours needs to be your avatar

 

[zero_suit]

Nintendo should be worried.

Not when their console sales are miles ahead of the PS3.

 

[markatisu]

I still can't get over how well and truly Nintendo fucked the Wii over in Japan. If you had suggested the Wii would be lagging so badly two years from now you'd have been laughed right out of the thread.

I mean shit, Nintendo couldn't have PLANNED to have tanked this badly...

Whats just as bad is that Sony has almost failed to capitalize on it, I mean all the gains they made earlier this Spring were virtually erased by the fall and now it looks as if it could be doing the same depending on how well FFXIII does against NSMB Wii

 

[Busaiku]

I still can't get over how well and truly Nintendo fucked the Wii over in Japan. If you had suggested the Wii would be lagging so badly two years from now you'd have been laughed right out of the thread.

I mean shit, Nintendo couldn't have PLANNED to have tanked this badly...

 

[DangerousDave]

For Wii we will wait for __ Wii VS game.

For PS3 we will wait for.... GOW3? I;m not sure how well that game does in Japan.

GT5, in March. I don't know what other relevant games for the japanese market launches in Q1 2010.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

The question though is how much hardware will FFXIII move? NSMB Wii has the potential to grab DS users who have not yet moved over, that could be the difference

I reckon that NSMB will ultimately sell much more than FF13 and have a greater effect on hardware in the long run but in the short term, just during this holiday period, I'm betting that FF13 will have the larger effect, due to the more front loaded nature of the genre and the series.

Thus it will give the PS3 an edge over the Wii in the short term, which will affect the image of the Wii in the eyes of developers and publishers (who may be tempted to see this "victory" as an excuse to not develop for the console)

 

[d+pad]

Wii also has Crystal Bearers and Taiko Wii. The latter especially should be a big seller. It definitely should be interesting If I had to predict I would go with Wii as I always have because I think NSMB Wii combined with a 20,000 yen price could be really big during the holidays, as well as Nintendo just naturally doing better during the holidays- as an example, Wii sold over 400,000 units in December off of Animal Crossing Wii and Taiko.

Don't forget Mario and Sonic at the Winter Olympics as well. Might not be a big release for the hardcore crowd, but the Summer version certainly sold quite a few copies.

IMO, it's a pretty sure bet that both Nintendo and Sony are going to see big HW and SW sales this holiday - Nintendo because of the price drop and NSMB Wii and the other titles listed and PS3 because of the redesign, price drop and FF XIII.

What isn't a sure bet: The numbers either of them will be pulling in after the holidays. I have a feeling that the numbers related to FF XIII will taper off very quickly, and if Sony doesn't have much to follow it up with (other than GT5 in March), HW numbers are going to drop quickly, too. Nintendo will see a similar plummet if NSMB Wii doesn't have both legs and HW-selling power, but we aren't going to know that until NSMB Wii is on the shelves...

 

[LiquidMetal14]

That is one bad ass son of the bitching record player that ain't broke

 

[schuelma]

I reckon that NSMB will ultimately sell much more than FF13 and have a greater effect on hardware in the long run but in the short term, just during this holiday period, I'm betting that FF13 will have the larger effect, due to the more front loaded nature of the genre and the series.

Thus it will give the PS3 an edge over the Wii in the short term, which will affect the image of the Wii in the eyes of developers and publishers (who may be tempted to see this "victory" as an excuse to not develop for the console)

I know I'm just repeating myself here, but you have to take into account Nintendo's historic strength during holiday's. Like I said, Wii did over 400K last holiday with a piss poor holiday lineup and a higher price.

 

[markatisu]

(who may be tempted to see this "victory" as an excuse to not develop for the console)

They need FFXIII selling hardware as an excuse not to develop for the Wii? :lol

 

[schuelma]

What isn't a sure bet: The numbers either of them will be pulling in after the holidays. I have a feeling that the numbers related to FF XIII will taper off very quickly, and if Sony doesn't have much to follow it up with (other than GT5 in March), HW numbers are going to drop quickly, too. Nintendo will see a similar plummet if NSMB Wii doesn't have both legs and HW-selling power, but we aren't going to know that until NSMB Wii is on the shelves...

Exactly- that is the key. I think we can all agree that both consoles should do well this holiday. The question is whether momentum is carried into 2010. Last year Nintendo had a decent holiday and immediately started tanking, leading to the position the Wii occupies.

 

[onipex]

It will definitely be interesting, but I think NSMB Wii could be every bit the megaton as FF13 or more. It will also be available for the entire month of December, in contrast to FF13.

Nintendo is also doing two more console and CC bundles this year too with TOG and SW3. It seems like they are trying to slow Sony down.

 

[ilbambino]

NSMB Wii will outsell FF13 easily.

I'm sure it won't.

 

[markatisu]

Nintendo is also doing two more console and CC bundles this year too with TOG and SW3. It seems like they are trying to slow Sony down.

Well this time maybe they should ship a higher number of SW3 black CC bundles, learn from both the MHG and MH3 fuck ups

 

[schuelma]

I'm sure it won't.

I'll bet ya it does.

 

[zero_suit]

I'm sure it won't.

FF13 will be lucky to sell 2 million copies, so I think it will.

 

[ilbambino]

I'll bet ya it does.

Easily as "Zero_suit" says? I'm open for a bet if that's the case.

 

[Grimmy]

GT5, in March. I don't know what other relevant games for the japanese market launches in Q1 2010.

Yakuza 4 most likely.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

I'm sure it won't.

People are estimating that FFXIII doesn't even hit two million LTD. Some are saying only one and a half million. If it does the latter it's going to be the biggest bomba since MH3.

 

[d+pad]

... which will affect the image of the Wii in the eyes of developers and publishers (who may be tempted to see this "victory" as an excuse to not develop for the console)

Is this even possible? Third-party developers already look at the Wii like it's an unwanted stepchild - I don't think FF XIII helping PS3 "beat" the Wii this holiday season (which I actually don't think will happen, BTW) is going to change that opinion or change how many third-party titles show up on the Wii.

Also, it's a bit laughable to think that third-parties would look at good/great sales of FF XIII as an indication that the PS3 is the place for them. After all, SE could put FF XIII on the now-defunct GBA and it would still sell >1.5 million copies. That said, most Japanese third-parties have shown themselves to be quite idiotic this generation, so who knows?

 

[LiquidMetal14]

So shall the bet be for free Burger King lunch or the bigger prize of dinner at Red Lobster?

 

[Acosta]

I'll bet ya it does.

What are you going to bet exactly?

 

[zero_suit]

If it does the latter it's going to be the biggest bomba since MH3.

I assume you're joking, but if not that statement is laughable.

 

[schuelma]

Easily as "Zero_suit" says? I'm open for a bet if that's the case.

If I was put on the spot I would probably say "easily", as in a final difference of 500K or greater. FF13 has a ceiling. NSMB Wii really doesn't..it could be as low as 1-1.5M, but it could go much much higher. We'll see!

 

[Taurus]

Nintendo should be worried.

I'm not sure about that. Home console market in Japan isn't the same as it used to be. They just had their first price drop, one of the biggest games is coming (NSMBWii), they are about 5 million ahead PS3 and about 7 million ahead X360 and they make money from every console they sell.

Of course there could and should have been more key 1st party releases since 3rd parties haven't stepped up like they did with the DS.

 

[schuelma]

Is this even possible? Third-party developers already look at the Wii like it's an unwanted stepchild - I don't think FF XIII helping PS3 "beat" the Wii this holiday season (which I actually don't think will happen, BTW) is going to change that opinion or change how many third-party titles show up on the Wii.

I think how 3rd parties do this holiday season on Wii will be a much bigger factor than FF13 on the PS3. People have been complaining for (relatively) high profile games to come out on Wii- this holiday we have some.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

People are estimating that FFXIII doesn't even hit two million LTD. Some are saying only one and a half million. If it does the latter it's going to be the biggest bomba since MH3.

Are you making a play for the Club Anihawk Sarcasm Badge?

 

[schuelma]

I assume you're joking, but if not that statement is laughable.

When Tri hits a million, that will show Dragona!

 

[Acosta]

And here we go with another discussion about Wii being fucked or not. Hell guys, you are predictable.

 

[donny2112]

So this is probably obvious and all, but if next January February Wii is dropping to early 2009 pace (20K and lower), can we say that Wii is in real trouble in Japan?

IF (date > '11/15/2007') then
echo "Wii is in trouble in Japan."
ELSE IF (date > '8/15/2007') then
echo "Wii will turn it around with Super Mario Galaxy in Japan."
ELSE
echo "Wii is doing great in Japan."
END IF

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I know we can't expect NSMB Wii or FF XIII to sell like their immediate predecessors, but given we all accept Final Fantasy is more frontloaded I was curious how long that put the last FF in the lead of the last NSMB. Sooo NSMB vs FF XII.

Looks like NSMB takes over on week 9.

 

[Regulus Tera]

I'm sure it won't.

Maybe not right out of the gate, but over time, it surely will.

 

[wrowa]

Not when their console sales are miles ahead of the PS3.

Because they're ahead of a console whose sales are (were) a catastrophe, they don't have to worry? That doesn't make the bad sales of the Wii any better. Business shouldn't be about being first, but about making money, anyway. So a struggling console is a reason to worry even if the competition struggles even more.

 

[WinFonda]

People have been complaining for (relatively) high profile games to come out on Wii- this holiday we have some.

Is this Iwata-san's GAF account!?

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

I know we can't expect NSMB Wii or FF XIII to sell like their immediate predecessors, but given we all accept Final Fantasy is more frontloaded I was curious how long that put the last FF in the lead of the last NSMB. Sooo NSMB vs FF XII.

Looks like NSMB takes over on week 9.

Exactly, which is AFTER the holiday season ends. Meaning that FF13 MUST have a larger impact on hardware sales over the christmas period (Assuming that both games follow a similar pattern)

 

[schuelma]

Is this Iwata-san's GAF account!?

Damn it the ruse is up.