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Media Create Sales: Week 1, 2013 (Dec 31 - Jan 06)

saichi

Member
Well my only reasoning for the 600k number is that --- MH4 is like Call of Duty Modern Warfare for Japan... It typically attracts an audience that does not play Nintendo products (as much) but more the PSP... It is the most anticipated game in Japan right now on Famitsu's Most Wanted... I think it will sell a million units the first week of release and will probably be Capcom's biggest game sales-wise ever (will probably easily eclipse Biohazard 2 on PSX)...I think a modified Monster Hunter 4 specific 3DSXL (perhaps with second stick?) and packed-in game could set records... Knowing Nintendo/Capcom I'm sure they are trying to do a limited edition bundle... if they go the second stick route, I can totally see people double-dipping for that

wtf are you talking about? MH4 sells 1 million first week but moves 600K hardware? Use Biohazard 2 as a bar for Capcom's biggest game? Don't be like heavy and just post random stuff without checking anything.
 

donny2112

Member
MH4 sells 1 million first week but moves 600K hardware?

Just as an historical reference, here are the PSP sales for Portable 2G and 3's release. It's reasonable to see the opportunity for 3DS to be higher, since it doesn't have as much of a Monster Hunter base existing as PSP did, but 600K is such an historically large figure, that it just does not seem reasonable. Thinking 400K on the high-end, and that's still a shocking figure to me only made considerable by what MHP3 did to PSP.

MHP2G - 823K software, 130k hardware
MHP3 - 2.1m software, 324k hardware
 
wtf are you talking about? MH4 sells 1 million first week but moves 600K hardware? Use Biohazard 2 as a bar for Capcom's biggest game? Don't be like heavy and just post random stuff without checking anything.

Did I a hit a nerve? No need to get upset

I am just speculating and it's based on facts, I could be totally wrong however.

I think MH4 will be more than a million, and I think hardware could hit 600k+ *IF* they introduce a new model 3DSXL with a built-in second stick and a limited edition bundle in the first week - but as others have pointed out a more realistic number is 400k-450k =)

It's based on the *fact* that most PSP owners haven't upgraded their hardware yet to the Vita, that the game sells extremely well in Japan, and the people who play the game generally haven't bought Nintendo consoles in the past. You can check those assertions yourself, or if you prefer, since writing opinions on the internet is so important after all, I can provide references for my assertions later tonight =)

I'm glad to be proven wrong and as always appreciate constructive feedback =)

In any case we will find out if my guesses are true or false soon enough


Edit: I did some checking and it seems like I was wrong about the best selling Capcom game in Japan (outside Monster Hunter) - Street Fighter II on the Super Famicom sold 2.9 million units - for some reason I thought that number included Turbo sales as well but just the original stand alone SKU - in more recent times, the best selling Japanese game is Biohazard 2 at 2.30 million for the original SKU - but I remember reading something about how re-releases of the same game (not an update like Turbo) made it higher selling than SF II - http://www.samurainintendo.com/japan/historyranking.html or here is a link with consolidated territories which shows SFII way out ahead - http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Best_selling_Capcom_games

2nd Edit: My rationale for why Capcom/Nintendo could do a special SKU with a refined control mechanism is based on Sony's similar collaboration with Capcom - http://www.ign.com/articles/2010/12/07/japan-psp-sales-explode-following-monster-hunter

If you are still angsty about my post, then I'm sorry - I was just speculating - shoot me
 

Road

Member
Congratulations to Road for winning by percentage and units!

Code:
BY UNITS                             BY PERCENTAGE

  1   622,766  Road                     1  153.7%  Road
  2   670,363  MasterSheen              2  186.3%  frankie_baby
  3   707,525  donny2112                3  208.9%  LayLa
  4   842,909  DrWong                   4  210.9%  MasterSheen
  5   859,523  frankie_baby             5  224.9%  DrWong
  6   860,757  LayLa                    6  251.2%  donny2112
  7   960,263  Gradivus                 7  269.0%  Gradivus
  8   992,699  ohlawd                   8  270.0%  hiska-kun
  9 1,029,125  Zornica                  9  270.2%  slaughterking
 10 1,030,357  schuelma                10  283.1%  Orgen
 11 1,043,853  Orgen                   11  285.1%  Kenka
 12 1,104,639  Yeshua                  12  290.3%  schuelma
 13 1,117,959  Nekki                   13  314.7%  Zornica
 14 1,135,263  Bruno MB                14  323.5%  Gianni Merryman
 15 1,136,409  Exterminieren           15  325.8%  Exterminieren
 16 1,139,719  hiska-kun               16  334.7%  ohlawd
 17 1,157,559  slaughterking           17  335.4%  Chris1964
 18 1,176,243  Kenka                   18  337.4%  Nekki
 19 1,246,453  Chris1964               19  340.0%  Yeshua
 20 1,306,301  lunchwithyuzo           20  357.8%  hongcha
 21 1,317,901  Gianni Merryman         21  374.7%  Bruno MB
 22 1,395,495  starship                22  381.7%  Pupi18
 23 1,461,073  XDDX                    23  402.7%  lunchwithyuzo
 24 1,482,651  Pupi18                  24  418.3%  starship
 25 1,583,259  The_lascar              25  436.7%  XDDX
 26 1,703,673  hongcha                 26  441.4%  The_lascar
 27 2,003,335  DCharlie                27  468.9%  DCharlie

                                        Famitsu     Orgen    Kenka    lunchwit slaughte Yeshua   Gianni M Extermin Chris196 schuelma XDDX     MasterSh DCharlie DrWong   donny211 Bruno MB Zornica  Nekki    ohlawd   starship Pupi18   Road     LayLa    frankie_ hongcha  The_lasc hiska-ku Gradivus
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf         1,012,051     697000   700000   890123   723455  1000000   900000   810000   987654   950000  1000000  1000000  1200000  1050000  1000000  1200000   950000   980000  1000000  1150000  1200000   999999   880000  1200000  1000000  1200000  1300000 1100000
[3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney   232,168     304000   260000   345678   436488   350000   230000   365000   321098   220000   400000   270000   280000   320000   400000   400000   380000   350000   450000   380000   340000   222222   320000   250000   150000   500000   350000  360000
[PS3] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Taisen OG      245,228     332000   285000   321012   305155   300000   312000   315000   234567   210000   300000   190000   300000   250000   250000   325000   220000   150000   200000   190000   175000   222222   260000   200000   150000   400000   299000  350000
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star           391,078     398000   315000   432101   289455   300000   385000   486000   456789   300000   400000   320000   130000   385000   400000   450000   440000   300000   300000   430000   375000   333333   280000   335000   250000   600000   400000  500000
[PS3] Yakuza 5                            521,856     445000   335000   456789   490478   500000   421000   423000   432109   390000   500000   420000   430000   400000   550000   500000   450000   400000   500000   400000   380000   444444   480000   400000   500000   630000   480000  500000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2                 314,390     241000   255000   234567   335456   300000   195000   310000   345678   290000   400000   350000   200000   230000   200000   300000   280000   250000   200000   330000   320000   222222   220000   360000   175000   350000   399000  200000
[PSP+PSV] AKB1/149: Love Election         196,778     199000   165000   210123   175456   270000   137000   195000   210987   180000   310000   200000    90000   110000   300000   325000   250000   250000   150000   140000   135000   222222   260000   165000   250000   200000   210000  250000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U             381,315     423000   390000   456789   380456   100000   516000   429000   678901   560000   610000   400000   200000   320000   350000   500000   450000   450000   400000   600000   560000   333333   450000   345000   250000   450000   599000  400000
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate           166,908     216000   205000   345678   169456   250000   219000   369000   345678   290000   300000   270000    88000   150000   100000   285000   105000   125000   320000   340000   420000   222222   180000   160000   150000   250000   220000  200000
[WIU] Nintendo Land                       214,374     490000   415000   432101   320125   300000   342000   312000   234567   320000   300000   300000   102000   280000   175000   300000   400000   400000   240000   340000   280000   222222   200000   145000   150000   350000   200000  230000
[WIU] Hardware                            638,339     652000   601000   789012   570125   800000   999000   679000   890123   780000  1000000   600000   280000   750000   600000   750000   750000   600000   550000   800000   850000   666666   700000   520000   300000   850000   777000  820000
[3DS] Hardware                          1,407,744    1377000  1250000  1234567  1155789  1300000  1232000  1264000  1234567  1300000  1220000  1300000  1000000  1250000  1500000  1450000  1250000  1200000  1250000  1550000  1590000  1222222  1250000  1530000   800000  1290000  1300000 1500000

UNIT DIFF                                            1043853  1176243  1306301  1157559  1104639  1317901  1136409  1246453  1030357  1461073   670363  2003335   842909   707525  1135263  1029125  1117959   992699  1395495  1482651   622766   860757   859523  1703673  1583259  1139719  960263

STATISTICS
                                        Famitsu  GAF AVERAGE    MIN      MAX       OVER     UNDER   CLOSEST BY

[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf         1,012,051  1,002,527  697,000 1,300,000      33%      67% 1,000,000 Yeshua
[3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney   232,168    331,648  150,000   500,000      85%      15%   230,000 Gianni Merryman
[PS3] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Taisen OG      245,228    260,961  150,000   400,000      59%      41%   250,000 DrWong
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star           391,078    370,025  130,000   600,000      44%      56%   385,000 Gianni Merryman
[PS3] Yakuza 5                            521,856    453,993  335,000   630,000       7%      93%   500,000 Yeshua
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2                 314,390    277,516  175,000   400,000      33%      67%   310,000 Exterminieren
[PSP+PSV] AKB1/149: Love Election         196,778    205,918   90,000   325,000      59%      41%   195,000 Exterminieren
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U             381,315    429,684  100,000   678,901      70%      30%   380,456 slaughterking
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate           166,908    233,149   88,000   420,000      74%      26%   169,456 slaughterking
[WIU] Nintendo Land                       214,374    288,149  102,000   490,000      78%      22%   222,222 Road
[WIU] Hardware                            638,339    700,886  280,000 1,000,000      67%      33%   652,000 Orgen
[3DS] Hardware                          1,407,744  1,288,894  800,000 1,590,000      22%      78% 1,377,000 Orgen

- Pupi18 had 1,2000,000 for Animal Crossing, but I don't think the intent was 12 million, so I corrected it amnually to 1.2 million.
- DCharlie, you were warned. =P
 

blu

Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
Congratulations to Orgen for winning by percentage and to Road, by units!

Code:
STATISTICS
                                        Famitsu  GAF AVERAGE    MIN      MAX       OVER     UNDER   CLOSEST BY
[WIU] Hardware                            638,339    700,886  280,000 1,000,000      67%      33%   652,000 Orgen
[3DS] Hardware                          1,407,744  1,288,894  800,000 1,590,000      22%      78% 1,377,000 Orgen
So, 2/3 of the participants overestimated WiiU sales, while 3/4 underestimated 3ds? Color me surprised ; )
 

hiska-kun

Member
Congratulations to Orgen for winning by percentage and to Road, by units!

- Pupi18 had 1,2000,000 for Animal Crossing, but I don't think the intent was 12 million, so I corrected it amnually to 1.2 million.
- DCharlie, you were warned. =P

Wait, Super Robot Wars numbers are wrong.

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201301/11027203.html

Famitsu December Top 10 (2012/11/26~2012/12/30/)

01 [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf (Nintendo) {2012-11-08} - 1,012,051 / 2,286,977
02 [PS3] Yakuza 5: Yume, Kanaeshi Mono (SEGA) {2012-12-06} - 521,856 / 521,856
03 [3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star (Nintendo) {2012-12-06} - 391,078 / 391,078
04 [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo) {2012-12-08} - 381,315 / 381,315
05 [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (Nintendo) {2012-07-28} - 368,524 / 1,780,493
06 [3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2: Chrono Stone Neppuu / Raimei (Level 5) {2012-12-13} - 314,390 / 314,390
07 [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii: Chougoukaban (Bandai Namco) {2012-11-29} - 308,684 / 308,684
08 [PS3] Super Robot Wars OG 2nd (Bandai Namco) {2012-11-29} - 257,741 / 257,741
09 [3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney (Level 5) {2012-11-29} - 232,168 / 232,168
10 [PSP] One Piece: Romance Dawn - Bouken no Yoake (Bandai Namco) {2012-12-20} - 217,482 / 217,482

Still, congratulations to the winners!
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Judgement day for Wii U tomorrow.

Well, not really since it's know it will be low but it's unknown how low it will go.
 
Judgement day for Wii U tomorrow.

Well, not really since it's know it will be low but it's unknown how low it will go.
Is time to ?
panic-button.jpg
 

Orgen

Member
Congratulations to Orgen for winning by percentage and to Road, by units!

Code:
BY UNITS                             BY PERCENTAGE

  1   622,766  Road                     1  137.3%  Orgen
  2   630,823  Orgen                    2  153.7%  Road
  3   670,363  MasterSheen              3  186.3%  frankie_baby
  4   707,525  donny2112                4  208.9%  LayLa
  5   842,909  DrWong                   5  210.9%  MasterSheen
  6   859,523  frankie_baby             6  224.9%  DrWong
  7   860,757  LayLa                    7  251.2%  donny2112
  8   960,263  Gradivus                 8  269.0%  Gradivus
  9   992,699  ohlawd                   9  270.0%  hiska-kun
 10 1,029,125  Zornica                 10  270.2%  slaughterking
 11 1,030,357  schuelma                11  285.1%  Kenka
 12 1,104,639  Yeshua                  12  290.3%  schuelma
 13 1,117,959  Nekki                   13  314.7%  Zornica
 14 1,135,263  Bruno MB                14  323.5%  Gianni Merryman
 15 1,136,409  Exterminieren           15  325.8%  Exterminieren
 16 1,139,719  hiska-kun               16  334.7%  ohlawd
 17 1,157,559  slaughterking           17  335.4%  Chris1964
 18 1,176,243  Kenka                   18  337.4%  Nekki
 19 1,246,453  Chris1964               19  340.0%  Yeshua
 20 1,306,301  lunchwithyuzo           20  357.8%  hongcha
 21 1,317,901  Gianni Merryman         21  374.7%  Bruno MB
 22 1,395,495  starship                22  381.7%  Pupi18
 23 1,461,073  XDDX                    23  402.7%  lunchwithyuzo
 24 1,482,651  Pupi18                  24  418.3%  starship
 25 1,583,259  The_lascar              25  436.7%  XDDX
 26 1,703,673  hongcha                 26  441.4%  The_lascar
 27 2,003,335  DCharlie                27  468.9%  DCharlie

                                        Famitsu     Orgen    Kenka    lunchwit slaughte Yeshua   Gianni M Extermin Chris196 schuelma XDDX     MasterSh DCharlie DrWong   donny211 Bruno MB Zornica  Nekki    ohlawd   starship Pupi18   Road     LayLa    frankie_ hongcha  The_lasc hiska-ku Gradivus
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf         1,012,051     697000   700000   890123   723455  1000000   900000   810000   987654   950000  1000000  1000000  1200000  1050000  1000000  1200000   950000   980000  1000000  1150000  1200000   999999   880000  1200000  1000000  1200000  1300000 1100000
[3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney   232,168     304000   260000   345678   436488   350000   230000   365000   321098   220000   400000   270000   280000   320000   400000   400000   380000   350000   450000   380000   340000   222222   320000   250000   150000   500000   350000  360000
[PS3] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Taisen OG      245,228     332000   285000   321012   305155   300000   312000   315000   234567   210000   300000   190000   300000   250000   250000   325000   220000   150000   200000   190000   175000   222222   260000   200000   150000   400000   299000  350000
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star           391,078     398000   315000   432101   289455   300000   385000   486000   456789   300000   400000   320000   130000   385000   400000   450000   440000   300000   300000   430000   375000   333333   280000   335000   250000   600000   400000  500000
[PS3] Yakuza 5                            521,856     445000   335000   456789   490478   500000   421000   423000   432109   390000   500000   420000   430000   400000   550000   500000   450000   400000   500000   400000   380000   444444   480000   400000   500000   630000   480000  500000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2                 314,390     241000   255000   234567   335456   300000   195000   310000   345678   290000   400000   350000   200000   230000   200000   300000   280000   250000   200000   330000   320000   222222   220000   360000   175000   350000   399000  200000
[PSP+PSV] AKB1/149: Love Election         196,778     199000   165000   210123   175456   270000   137000   195000   210987   180000   310000   200000    90000   110000   300000   325000   250000   250000   150000   140000   135000   222222   260000   165000   250000   200000   210000  250000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U             381,315     423000   390000   456789   380456   100000   516000   429000   678901   560000   610000   400000   200000   320000   350000   500000   450000   450000   400000   600000   560000   333333   450000   345000   250000   450000   599000  400000
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate           166,908     216000   205000   345678   169456   250000   219000   369000   345678   290000   300000   270000    88000   150000   100000   285000   105000   125000   320000   340000   420000   222222   180000   160000   150000   250000   220000  200000
[WIU] Nintendo Land                       214,374     490000   415000   432101   320125   300000   342000   312000   234567   320000   300000   300000   102000   280000   175000   300000   400000   400000   240000   340000   280000   222222   200000   145000   150000   350000   200000  230000
[WIU] Hardware                            638,339     652000   601000   789012   570125   800000   999000   679000   890123   780000  1000000   600000   280000   750000   600000   750000   750000   600000   550000   800000   850000   666666   700000   520000   300000   850000   777000  820000
[3DS] Hardware                          1,407,744    1377000  1250000  1234567  1155789  1300000  1232000  1264000  1234567  1300000  1220000  1300000  1000000  1250000  1500000  1450000  1250000  1200000  1250000  1550000  1590000  1222222  1250000  1530000   800000  1290000  1300000 1500000

UNIT DIFF                                             630823  1176243  1306301  1157559  1104639  1317901  1136409  1246453  1030357  1461073   670363  2003335   842909   707525  1135263  1029125  1117959   992699  1395495  1482651   622766   860757   859523  1703673  1583259  1139719  960263

STATISTICS
                                        Famitsu  GAF AVERAGE    MIN      MAX       OVER     UNDER   CLOSEST BY

[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf         1,012,051  1,002,527  697,000 1,300,000      33%      67% 1,000,000 Yeshua
[3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney   232,168    331,648  150,000   500,000      85%      15%   230,000 Gianni Merryman
[PS3] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Taisen OG      245,228    260,961  150,000   400,000      59%      41%   250,000 DrWong
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star           391,078    370,025  130,000   600,000      44%      56%   385,000 Gianni Merryman
[PS3] Yakuza 5                            521,856    453,993  335,000   630,000       7%      93%   500,000 Yeshua
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2                 314,390    277,516  175,000   400,000      33%      67%   310,000 Exterminieren
[PSP+PSV] AKB1/149: Love Election         196,778    205,918   90,000   325,000      59%      41%   195,000 Exterminieren
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U             381,315    429,684  100,000   678,901      70%      30%   380,456 slaughterking
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate           166,908    233,149   88,000   420,000      74%      26%   169,456 slaughterking
[WIU] Nintendo Land                       214,374    288,149  102,000   490,000      78%      22%   222,222 Road
[WIU] Hardware                            638,339    700,886  280,000 1,000,000      67%      33%   652,000 Orgen
[3DS] Hardware                          1,407,744  1,288,894  800,000 1,590,000      22%      78% 1,377,000 Orgen

- Pupi18 had 1,2000,000 for Animal Crossing, but I don't think the intent was 12 million, so I corrected it amnually to 1.2 million.
- DCharlie, you were warned. =P

Wow, some games/HW were almost nailed! Congrats Road and thanks as always for the effort :)

Judgement day for Wii U tomorrow.

Well, not really since it's know it will be low but it's unknown how low it will go.

32.000
 

urfe

Member
Yeah, I'm also expecting that much for WiiU [edit: 35k].

More curious how much of a dive Animal Crossing and Fantasy Life take. It would be amazing if Animal Crossing still went fairly strong.
 

Road

Member
Wait, Super Robot Wars numbers are wrong.

It was established the valid numbers are from the Famitsu Top 30. Usually the results are posted one or two weeks before the monthly top 10 is even made available, I was just lazier this month.

Road, I get 1,043,853 total difference for Orgen. That makes a lot more sense given how close our predictions were.

g6aa0.png

Oh, wow. There was a mistake on with Orgen: Only half of his predictions were being compared. Not exactly sure how that happened (other then I surely messed up something). Thanks for keeping an eye on me.

Sorry, Orgen,
you don't have to pay me anymore since we were caught.
 

Kenka

Member
It was established the valid numbers are from the Famitsu Top 30. Usually the results are posted one or two weeks before the monthly top 10 is even made available, I was just lazier this month.



Oh, wow. There was a mistake on with Orgen: Only half of his predictions were being compared. Not exactly sure how that happened (other then I surely messed up something). Thanks for keeping an eye on me.
I wish my motives are worth a thank, he he :D no worries, it happens.
 

Orgen

Member
It was established the valid numbers are from the Famitsu Top 30. Usually the results are posted one or two weeks before the monthly top 10 is even made available, I was just lazier this month.



Oh, wow. There was a mistake on with Orgen: Only half of his predictions were being compared. Not exactly sure how that happened (other then I surely messed up something). Thanks for keeping an eye on me.

Sorry, Orgen,
you don't have to pay me anymore since we were caught.

Hahaha :(
we'll have to find a better way to do this.

I wish my motives are worth a thank, he he :D no worries, it happens.

I'll keep an eye on you now ò_ó
 
Yeah, I'm also expecting that much for WiiU [edit: 35k].

More curious how much of a dive Animal Crossing and Fantasy Life take. It would be amazing if Animal Crossing still went fairly strong.
Animal Crossing is going to sell more as the true legend it is.
 

Road

Member
Yeah, I'm also expecting that much for WiiU [edit: 35k].

More curious how much of a dive Animal Crossing and Fantasy Life take. It would be amazing if Animal Crossing still went fairly strong.

I'm curious if ACNL will be above 100k. It has 9 weeks, the record is by NSMB with 13 weeks. (Probably not, but who knows.)

In fact, the games have similar sales after 9 weeks:
ibq3J47eXVYhYz.png
 
I'm curious if ACNL will be above 100k. It has 9 weeks, the record is by NSMB with 13 weeks. (Probably not, but who knows.)
I've been wondering for a while how long NSMB stayed at over 100k per week in Japan, thanks for clearing up. I just remember that it seemed like forever.

P.S. I hope Curly the pig lives in my town when I get NL. I think he left my DS town to 'represent' at a push-up tournament.
 

guek

Banned
32k for Wii U

Iwata getting ready for a "special" Nintendo Direct

I'm torn. Part of me wants it to post good numbers for the sake of the platform...on the other hand, we need some goddamn announcements as soon as yesterday.
 

AOC83

Banned
I'm torn. Part of me wants it to post good numbers for the sake of the platform...on the other hand, we need some goddamn announcements as soon as yesterday.

I think the only thing that can make Nintendo pull their head out of their ass are really bad sales.
 
Back in December, I thought that Nintendo would sell on par or slightly worst than Wii throughout January.

The huge downward trend the last two weeks just proves how wrong I was and how badly Nintendo messed up this launch.

I'm predicting 31,587 units sold for Wii U
 
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