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[Sammy Samusu]

26./22. [3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star <ADV> (Nintendo) {2012.12.06} (¥4.800) - 3.981 / 509.015 (+3%)

IF Persona 5 was announced for PSV, multiplat or otherwise. What would the implications be?

And waste the opportunity to release the same game one year later? Nope.

 

[electroplankton]

Wow! Great result for Vita and very good for Soul Sacrifice. Totally unexpected for me the former, expected the latter, but still really good.

Also surprising to see the 3DS so low. Are there any shortages?

 

[Alexios]

Vita beat everyone's predictions by a long shot this week

I'm pretty sure some people were predicting ~100k. And of course everyone predicted it would do better this week.

I suppose the ~100k people might have been right if the price cut wasn't phased in since the week before. But they knew.

 

[AranhaHunter]

If the Vita continued to sell at this pace, and the 3DS were to never sell a single unit ever again, it would take 149 weeks for the Vita to catch up. It's been over.

DS sold 32 million, PSP sold 20 million. If 3DS sells 20 million and PSV somehow gets to 10 million, I'm sure sony will be ecstatic with those numbers.

Aranha-Hunter: Nah, 25k.

No predictions from me this time

Given just how badly AC/COD failed to move Vita hardware last holiday despite everything they had going for them (the popularity of those IP, a major marketing push from Sony, reasonably priced bundles sold at further discounts for much of the holiday), I completely fail to understand your thinking here.

AC was garbage and COD is even worse. I do understand your point and the dedicated hh market is niche in the west, hence why he suggested an ecosystem and tablet/phone skus as well. COD would be a lot more attractive if it could be played anywhere over a 4G network and had a proper developer behind it. AC would be much better if it got properly polished and had a better story with ability to go into the animus.

I don't even think the 3DS will outsell the PSP LTD in the west, so maybe your expectations are a little unrealistic?

But you said in your very first sentence that you don't believe the system can be fixed without such games.

He's saying the whole thing. Not just the games and forgetting the ecosystem, not just the ecosystem and forgetting the games, not just those two and forgetting tablet/phone SKU, not just those 3 and still have a subpar browser. What he is saying is very ambitious and could give the vita life (lol), but it would be very difficult to pull off, risky as the market could reject like they did W8, and expensive. Basically a high risk/high reward proposition, but one that could make vita relevant, and I agree with that.

 

[Mr Swine]

Definitely not. If it can stay at 20K, that's already big achievement. Sony can use PS4/Vita combo to push the Vita by the end of the year.

Sure they can, if every ip that sells at least150k or more to have 30k vita bundles each week then it can sustain 60k a week for the rest of the year

Also I don't think Japanese people are keen to buy both a Vita and Ps4 just for the remote stuff

 

[Sammy Samusu]

As for Tales series for Vita Baba has already teased the next one to come (and also said it won't be ToT).

Link please?

 

[Hero of Legend]

Super Robot Wars UX is next week right? That should give the 3DS a decent boost correct? It's a decent-size release?

What are the odds of a localization? Atlus actually brought over the GBA games.

 

[Laguna]

Strange times we live in.

Vita beat everyone's predictions by a long shot this week, did anyone actually think that it would increases week over week? I mean, holy shit.

It didn´t, in fact I predicted both PSV hardware and SS correctly and some others as well.

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=49856799&postcount=1233

 

[Canis lupus]

SS + Vita price cut sells combo is nothing to write home about.
Will be back to sub-10k very soon except if there's good word of mouth for SS but it just doesn't have an attractive look.

You think Vitas baseline will not see an increase compared to pre-pricecut even in weeks with no releases?

 

[the androgyne]

Given just how badly AC/COD failed to move Vita hardware last holiday despite everything they had going for them (the popularity of those IP, a major marketing push from Sony, reasonably priced bundles sold at further discounts for much of the holiday), I completely fail to understand your thinking here.

I don't think you can base predictions off of how well AC & CoD moved hardware. Aside from CoD being panned across the board, the mere existence of these games wasn't doing anything for Vita's general public opinion, from game announce to launch (hell CoD was probably detrimental to opinion!).

What they need in the west, are a few games that flat out establish Vita as receiving quality, exclusive games and that developers are taking it seriously. Change the general opinion from "system with a few ports & barely any dev interest"

That's not what AC & CoD were - they were testing the market and token name dropping moneyhat. Killzone seems to be a developer taking it seriously, Tearaway too but that probably has little market appeal (mass and current vita). They best be hoping there's a few very strong 3rd party titles in the works for year end, or the few games they do have will just be seen as the slim pickings for Vita fans.

 

[erpg]

Soul Sacrifice impressions in the import thread are positive, so I'm hoping the game gets good word of mouth and doesn't drop more than 50 percent next week. That's just my prediction mixed in with all the drool I'm spewing in anticipation for its release.

Just for comparison, Animal Crossing 3DS sold more than 600k in two days... with a lot more competition.

Soul Sacrifice sold 100k with no competition at all.

Hahaha. Brilliant comparison, junior.

 

[Nibel]

Vita beat everyone's predictions by a long shot this week

Actually many people were pretty accurate with their predictions in the old MC thread

 

[Father_Brain]

Maybe not a massive vindication but at least a promising indicator? I honestly don't remember but what was the install base for the PSP like when those games released? How many months had the PSP been on the market? I feel like both of those factors count when deciding on bomb status. In other words, I'm not sure where the goalposts lie for a title like that.

Ubi said they were pleased with the results and because it's an Assassin's Creed title with an (mostly) open world I'm assuming that the budget was larger than average for a Vita title. I guess my logical progression here is that you have a major third party exclusive that probably had a decently large budget with a publisher that went on record and said they were pleased with the sales (which in marketing speak means "we made money").

Now does that automatically mean that another 3rd party exclusive with a large budget is automatically going to make money? Does it guarantee success for a GTA title? Of course not. But it is a positive indicator that the Vita can be profitable for this sort of venture.

As I said, "potentially profitable niche market." The problem is, Sony's Western strategy for Vita is almost entirely predicated on the notion that such titles can be major system-sellers, not profitable niche titles.

 

[Thoraxes]

I wouldn't call that stabilising, for now it just looks like a two week spike. We'll still need a few more weeks of data before we can see the real effects the price drop and new releases.

Yeah stabilization is a trend. However this is a good start, but with a direct correlation of software and hw cuts.

 

[Maedhros]

Now that I see better... I didn't actually get the prediction wrong.

SS: 120~150k
Vita: 40~60k

I'll wait 'till sunday to make my predictions this week.

 

[Anth0ny]

Oh.my.GOD.

IT IS ALIVE

 

[MechaX]

Super Robot Wars UX is next week right? That should give the 3DS a decent boost correct? It's a decent-size release?

What are the odds of a localization? Atlus actually brought over the GBA games.

Since it has licensed titles, pretty much exactly zero. The only SRW title that would even have a shot (and not much of one at that) of being localized is if it had all series from a single company (like Tatsunoko v. Capcom).

 

[wrowa]

IF Persona 5 was announced for PSV, multiplat or otherwise. What would the implications be?

Also IF marketed a lot. What is the sales potential of Tearaway?

Persona 5 will be on Vita in some form or another, I think that's a given. Atlus, like many other Japanese developers, makes technically competent but not impressive games -- a PS360 Persona 5 in the veins of Catherine should easily be portable to the Vita. Considering that P4 Golden was very successful, I don't see a reason why they wouldn't release it on Vita.

However, the question is whether they are going to release it alongside the PS360 versions or wait a year to release it as a Portable or Golden special edition.

 

[test_account]

Until next week.

The Vita had, in the last two weeks:

• First Week: A price cut (close to 3DS price)
• Second Week (today's numbers): Soul Sacrifice release

So, the third week (next numbers) is going to be decisive.

Until next week. Then we'll see how big the decline will be.

I think there we be more talk about the Vita sales after next week as well. I think there will be talk about it every week until it has done aproximiately the same numbers for about 4-6 weeks in a row.

 

[EloquentM]

Look at that people games actually sell systems. Who would've thunk it.

 

[grimshawish]

Barely Default Vita would not shock me after this. Unless BD2 has begun production already.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Since it has licensed titles, pretty much exactly zero. The only SRW title that would even have a shot (and not much of one at that) of being localized is if it had all series from a single company (like Tatsunoko v. Capcom).

I know, but as I said, Atlus brought over the GBA games:

 

[Magicpaint]

However, the question is whether they are going to release it alongside the PS360 versions or wait a year to release it as a Portable or Golden special edition.

The latter I think. It has worked so well for them that I can't see them changing that.

 

[Maedhros]

Barely Default Vita would not shock me after this. Unless BD2 has begun production already.

I don't think Square-Enix have nothing more than FFX HD for Vita at all. =/

 

[serplux]

Super Robot Wars UX is next week right? That should give the 3DS a decent boost correct? It's a decent-size release?

What are the odds of a localization? Atlus actually brought over the GBA games.

Probably a 200k+ seller, going by the DS releases. Ehh, I don't really know if we'll ever see it unless someone like XSEED picks it up. Or Nintendo is really trying to bring over as many Japanese games as they can.

 

[tolkir]

Oh.my.GOD.

IT IS ALIVE

It's Alive!

 

[Soriku]

Barely Default Vita would not shock me after this. Unless BD2 has begun production already.

I don't see what this has to do with SE? BD2 has already begun development anyway.

 

[TheSeks]

Murmurs are pathologic heart sounds that are produced as a result of turbulent blood flow that is sufficient to produce audible noise.

So what you're saying is: The patient is still dead, but it's technically a brain death?

That said 1,000 more than last week is a good thing. Maybe the price-drop (and some interesting games) is helping, eh, Sony? Maybe you should do that for other regions?

 

[InsaneZero]

I know, but as I said, Atlus brought over the GBA games

The reason why this game could be brought over is right there on the title.

 

[serplux]

Barely Default Vita would not shock me after this. Unless BD2 has begun production already.

Umm...why? The series has done excellently on the 3DS and already has a pretty big JRPG fanbase on it. Plus, Square Enix hasn't released a game on the Vita since launch (lol FFX HD).

 

[noobasuar]

Numbers are decent but it will be back to selling like normal next week and then what....5 months before the next release?

I guess vita fans can have a week of imagining that big things are about to happen for it.

 

[Hero of Legend]

The reason why this game could be brought over is right there on the title.

I guess it only has Gundams where as UX has loads other right? Doesn't UX also feature Robot Miku and Virtual On characters?

Spoiler

Project X Zone is coming too though...

 

[airmangataosenai]

I'm pretty sure some people were predicting ~100k. And of course everyone predicted it would do better this week.

This is another case of people resetting their expectations the day or two before the results hit. Go back into last week's thread and see what the discussion was like. No one thought that over 50k was possible.

 

[Fabrik]

You think Vitas baseline will not see an increase compared to pre-pricecut even in weeks with no releases?

No because there's no other worthwhile releases anytime soon. Soul Sacrifice was the biggest game in 2013 for Vita. I don't think I ever saw a copycat becoming a phenomenon.

 

[Zoe]

How long did it take for the SS supply issues to get resolved?

 

[MechaX]

I know, but as I said, Atlus brought over the GBA games:

None of the Original Generation games have licensed mechs in them (a few of the mechs look remarkably similar to Gundams, but they are not). The OG series is essentially a mash-up of all of the original storylines that Banpresto has included in every SRW game since 2. It would not be much of a hurdle to localize that because there are no inter-company licensing issues to speak of.

Although, the fact that every SRW game has such massive amounts of text + voice acting is an ancillary hurdle to localization, further confounded by the GBA titles' low sales (which is possibly why Atlus decided to pass up on the next three OG titles).

 

[AranhaHunter]

So, you want Sony to openly compete with Android and Apple? I'm sorry, I can't see how that's a good idea. At all. Sony doesn't have the means to establish a new tablet/phone OS alongside the already established ones. Building up a new ecosystem is only going to cost them a lot of money, while failure is more than likely. If they want to establish the PlayStation brand on mobile and tablets, they are better off abandoning the Vita in order to concentrate full-force on PlayStation mobile with PlayStation branded Androd tablets aimed towards gamers.

Sony is a huge company. Top 6 in movies/tvs (number 1 last year), Top 2 in music, number 1 in music publishing. Already own an ebook store, would just need to integrate that with the rest of sen. Already own an exclusive mp3/music store in Australia, would have to expand that WW and integrate it with sen. The general apps is the hardest one, as MS found with W8. They could fail miserably, sure, but they could also establish a good, closed ecosystem that's a viable alternative to the other options. Furthermore, no gaming system in this day and age offers such an ecosystem (though, I believe that will change with Durango and maybe PS4 if Sony goes this route).

PSM is a bust because of Sony's incompetence, so not sure what they will do with that. That also needs a huge turn around to make it viable.

House also said we'll see Vita OS in our living rooms this year, suggesting tablets, tvs, roku like devices, maybe phones. For those things they would need to offer more than just videos and games on SEN.

This is getting way off topic however lol

They wouldn't be abandoning android, simply carving their own ecosystem, so if that initiative fails, they can go back to android 100%. IIRC Samsung was also rumored to be working on a closed ecosystem for their

IF Persona 5 was announced for PSV, multiplat or otherwise. What would the implications be?

Also IF marketed a lot. What is the sales potential of Tearaway?

P5 exclusive would be huge. System seller. Multiplat, it would join GE2, FFX, Jump, One Piece, good to have, will boost the lineup, and possibly get a higher baseline, but it's not going to make a huge difference as it'll be available on more popular platforms.

Tearway is going to be lucky to break 100K. Western games don't really sell much in the west. GTA on PS2 only sold 500k, COD and GTA on PS3 about 300K

 

[ArtHands]

Until next week. Then we'll see how big the decline will be.

I wouldn't say so. Probably a month will be a fair gauge to see what is the base sales as it might be a gradual drop.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

You think Vitas baseline will not see an increase compared to pre-pricecut even in weeks with no releases?

Price cut didn't help that much. It's been a combination of price cut, software and bundles for the past two weeks.

 

[test_account]

I don't think I ever saw a copycat becoming a phenomenon.

Being in the same genre does not mean that it is a copy cat though. Soul Sacrifice and Monster Hunter are both in the same genre, but they are not identical games. They both have different elements to them, just like Call of Duty are not identical to all the other First Person Shooter games out there.

 

[GhostOfLawlight]

Is 114k for Soul Sacrifice good? I don't know what the expectations were.

It's pretty good. Keep in mind that you need to add 10 to 20% for the digital sales.

 

[Father_Brain]

I don't think you can base predictions off of how well AC & CoD moved hardware. Aside from CoD being panned across the board, the mere existence of these games wasn't doing anything for Vita's general public opinion, from game announce to launch (hell CoD was probably detrimental to opinion!).

U:GA, RE:R, and R:BS weren't huge hits, either, and two of those were pretty well-regarded critically.

There's a fundamental issue of demographics here, is what I'm saying.

 

[Canis lupus]

No because there's no other worthwhile releases anytime soon. Soul Sacrifice was the biggest game in 2013 for Vita. I don't think I ever saw a copycat becoming a phenomenon.

It will not go sub 10k anytime soon.

 

[Maedhros]

No because there's no other worthwhile releases anytime soon. Soul Sacrifice was the biggest game in 2013 for Vita. I don't think I ever saw a copycat becoming a phenomenon.

Copycat who isn't nothing like the one "copied".

 

[Father_Brain]

It will not go sub 10k anytime soon.

Yeah, we'll see.

The current release schedule for the remainder of 2013 is so dire that even a 15K baseline would be quite the feat.

 

[FonkyByNature]

Vita saved ? Hell yeah !

 

[InsaneZero]

This thread is going to be worth coming back to during the end of the year.

Also, I don't see the Vita sustaining whatever momentum they've got from these last two weeks based upon the current lineup.

 

[Anth0ny]

I predicted Vita sales would stay in the 60k range this week. Real happy to see that come true.

What I would have never predicted in a million years was for 3DS sales to plummet like that and the Vita to OUTSELL the 3DS. Unbelievable.

Now the real test is to see if these numbers can hold. Not even 60k... 40k? 30k?


Also, lol Wii U. Also expected sub 10k. HE DEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAADDDDDDDDDD

 

[grimshawish]

Umm...why? The series has done excellently on the 3DS and already has a pretty big JRPG fanbase on it. Plus, Square Enix hasn't released a game on the Vita since launch (lol FFX HD).

New IP doing well on Vita was my only thought. Whether third parties see this as more just a first party doing well might change things. But its not like this doesn't suggest a possible means to extend the brands followers.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Copycat who isn't nothing like the one "copied".

"I took the good parts from Monster Hunter." - Inafune, Ex-Capcom Employee