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[duckroll]

Wildlands is an improvement over The Division, but still falls short of 100k. Ubi is doing a good job building up the brand but it's not growing as fast as some expect I think.

On the other hand... Nier is doing amazingly well. It'll almost certainly clear 300k at this point which is an insane level of success. NiOh seems to have really dropped off in comparison. Switch still doing well, Zelda going to slay, etc.

BUT the funniest comparison every week continues to be this:
13./14. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 6.220 / 297.547 (-15%)
15./15. [PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard # <ADV> (Capcom) {2017.01.26} (¥7.990) - 5.523 / 297.189 (-23%)

Hey Capcom, stay LOSING. Keep making games NO ONE wants and you become a LOSER!

/salt

 

[casiopao]

Now that Yoshi 3DS outsold Yoshi Wii U, next battle is MK8 Switch vs. MK8 Wii U.

Is there even a chance for MK8 Wii U to be passed by MK8 Switch there.O_O

 

[Branduil]

Is there even a chance for MK8 Wii U to be passed by MK8 Switch there.O_O

Why wouldn't there be? MK7 outsold MK8, didn't it?

 

[duckroll]

Is there even a chance for MK8 Wii U to be passed by MK8 Switch there.O_O

Erm. More like, is there really a chance that the Switch is so unsuccessful that MK8 Switch doesn't pass the WiiU one by the holidays this year.

 

[Vinnk]

Just realised that Disgaea 5 disappeared from the charts, so less than 2.5k for week 2. NIS better not be too disappointed.

One of those less than 2.5k is me. Amazon still had it in stock.

The bad new is that it's poor sales aren't due to it being supply constrained.

The good news is that it has not price collapsed yet. In fact when I bought it last week that price was 6,200yen and the price has actually gone up a tiny bit to 6,473yen so retailers are not panicking about the title just yet.

And to Sales-GAF as a whole, I would like to apologize for my posts yesterday. I was getting pretty defensive about some of the comments made that I believed were misinformed. The thing I like most about Media Create threads is that we can analyze the data and separate it from emotion. I usually try to be very neutral in these threads but I had my "Someone is wrong on the internet!" moments last night and in trying to call out other posts, I am sure I contributed to the problem. I will be more careful going forward.

 

[Branduil]

Erm. More like, is there really a chance that the Switch is so unsuccessful that MK8 Switch doesn't pass the WiiU one by the holidays this year.

I think some people have the weird idea that MK8 Deluxe won't sell like a normal Mario Kart because it's "just" a port.

This seems unlikely to me... I think one reason Mario Kart sells so well is exactly because people already know what they're going to get from it, so it being the same game as one on a wildly unpopular console is hardly a damning flaw.

 

[duckroll]

I think some people have the weird idea that MK8 Deluxe won't sell like a normal Mario Kart because it's "just" a port.

This seems unlikely to me... I think one reason Mario Kart sells so well is exactly because people already know what they're going to get from it, so it being the same game as one on a wildly unpopular console is hardly a damning flaw.

Let's put it this way. Let's say we assume Mario Kart 7's total sales in Japan are the only people interested in a Mario Kart game at all. And let's say every single person who bought Mario Kart 8 on WiiU don't want to buy it again. There's still enough people left over from that for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe to outsell Mario Kart 8 if those people end up getting a Switch. LOL.

 

[SalvaPot]

Do we have a precedent for a Nintendo "Full version" game? Only I can think of is NSBU+NSLU and NSMB2 gold edition. Usually when Nintendo releases ports from the previous generation they just add a new control method (Like Pikmin and Metroid) or portability (Like Xeno3D and DKCR3D). The closest I can feel can be comparable are the Super Mario Advanced releases.

So for a multiplayer game that historically sells millions, do we have any idea how well could it sell or what would be considered a success? I am sure the game already sold enough to make a profit on the Wii U, so I guess any sales on the Switch would be considered great, but Nintendo IS setting Mario Kart 8D as the big game to hold the fort until Splatoon 2 and ARMS arrive and to push systems.

Well, Mario Kart 7 still sells, so having 8 on the go and with local multi is a huge plus, not to mention the battle mode that actually looks awesome. 8D for sure will sell a lot on the long run to people who already wanted or have the Switch, but I think its obvious it should also be able to sell consoles to the same people who got a 3DS for MK7 but skipped the Wii U because expensive/not portable/etc.

Would 8D sales be impacted by the people who already own it on the Wii U? I doubt it. People who want to keep playing online will have to upgrade eventually, either because all their friends are playing the new version or because the servers are taken down. People who got it on Wii U to play by themselves are most likely Nintendo enthusiasts who will get a Switch anyway, and some of them wouldn't see the need to upgrade, but some would anyway because of the improved performance and playable characters. Maybe. I can see far more peole double dipping in a multiplayer game like this with heavy use of online.

Yeah, Mario Kart 8D should sell to the crowd who skipped on the Wii U and to a good chunk of those who didn't, if anything it should sell better thant Mario Kart 8 Vanilla, maybe not immediatly but certainly in the long run, proving Swith is a success.

Oh, and one factor I forgot to mention was that the Wii U version had a free digital game with its purchase, I wonder how much that inflated the initial sales, but considering it sold just fine after the promotion ended I won't lose sleep over it.

 

[duckroll]

Do we have a precedent for a Nintendo "Full version" game? Only I can think of is NSBU+NSLU and NSMB2 gold edition. Usually when Nintendo releases ports from the previous generation they just add a new control method (Like Pikmin and Metroid) or portability (Like Xeno3D and DKCR3D). The closest I can feel can be comparable are the Super Mario Advanced releases.

Mario Kart 8 isn't portable. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is portable. What's your point?

 

[Ōkami]

The VR killer app coming to retail on May 25th.

This is a collection that includes all the expansions/DLC and whatever, hence the high price.

They're also making figurines of the main character, including a human size one that will sell for over 2 million yen.

 

[ULTROS!]

The VR killer app coming to retail on May 25th.

This is a collection that includes all the expansions/DLC and whatever, hence the high price.

They're also making figurines of the main character, including a human size one that will sell for over 2 million yen.

wtf

why is it so expensive

 

[SalvaPot]

Mario Kart 8 isn't portable. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is portable. What's your point?

The rest of the post...

Conclusion was that Mario Kart 8D should sell even better than 8 because its portable and it should reach a bigger audience since the Wii U flopped.

Actually, my post its just your post but longer and more boring. Kind of a waste of time, huh.

About that specific paragraph, I meant that its the first time, as far as I can remember, Nintendo releases a upgraded all-dlc included version of a multiplayer game on a portable device, so I was wondering if we had any point of comparison, sales-wise, of what to expect.

 

[Hero]

One of those less than 2.5k is me. Amazon still had it in stock.

The bad new is that it's poor sales aren't due to it being supply constrained.

The good news is that it has not price collapsed yet. In fact when I bought it last week that price was 6,200yen and the price has actually gone up a tiny bit to 6,473yen so retailers are not panicking about the title just yet.

And to Sales-GAF as a whole, I would like to apologize for my posts yesterday. I was getting pretty defensive about some of the comments made that I believed were misinformed. The thing I like most about Media Create threads is that we can analyze the data and separate it from emotion. I usually try to be very neutral in these threads but I had my "Someone is wrong on the internet!" moments last night and in trying to call out other posts, I am sure I contributed to the problem. I will be more careful going forward.

Vinnk no need to be so hard on yourself even though it shows to your character that you're apologizing. I think a lot of newer members don't realize how long you've been around for the GAF community and that you take time out of your day to give us some good insight into the Japanese market that we may not have otherwise.

 

[Branduil]

I don't feel like anyone will look at the 8 in Mario Kart and say "Well I'm not buying this shit, it's not even a new game." People buy Mario Kart not because it's "new," but because it's the Mario Kart for that system. Not too say additions are meaningless or that they could have just ported Super Mario Kart forever, but the changes in each Mario Kart have always been small and incremental.

 

[Leona Lewis]

I'm sort of apprehensive that no matter how well Automata sells in Japan, it won't sell nearly as well relatively speaking in the West for S-E to forget it originally greenlit it as a mobile game. I just want another decent budget Yoko Taro game without the need for devious blackmail and absurdly fortuitous timing, and I don't think we'll get another this gen unless he and Taura/PlatinumGames get another stab with this engine while the iron is still hot (as in, not 7 years removed from the previous game).

Hopefully it blows the hell up on Steam.

 

[Vinnk]

Do we have a precedent for a Nintendo "Full version" game?

Maybe not "Full" versions but to recent examples are Yoshi and Mario Maker. In fact in the case of Mario Maker some of the content has been cut. But both of them outsold their console version mainly in the basis os adding portability. I really don't think too many people rebought Yoshi's Wooly World for Puchi but it was an addition that could separate the games.

I fully expect Mario Kart 8 DX to outsell the Wii U version in Japan. And I think it would even if it had zero additional content. Wi-fi multiplayer is going to sell it here.

 

[duckroll]

The rest of the post...

Conclusion was that Mario Kart 8D should sell even better than 8 because its portable and it should reach a bigger audience since the Wii U flopped.

Actually, my post its just your post but longer and more boring. Kind of a waste of time, huh.

About that specific paragraph, I meant that its the first time, as far as I can remember, Nintendo releases a upgraded all-dlc included version of a multiplayer game on a portable device, so I was wondering if we had any point of comparison, sales-wise, of what to expect.

Well what I mean is, why are we looking for a Nintendo "full version" re-release as defined when one doesn't really exist? I guess if we really want to keep looking at it, we'll find that if it ever comes to a straight port re-release without any enhancements or expanded features/controls, Nintendo calls them... VC releases? Maybe we'll see that with GC VC?

 

[thestopsign]

I have to go check what I put in for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe when we made our yearly predictions, but I would be surprised if it sold under a million this year. More surprised than if it sold over 2 million.

Edit: Oh shit. I only predicted 780k. Well, I'll probably be wrong on that.

I'm sort of apprehensive that no matter how well Automata sells in Japan, it won't sell nearly as well relatively speaking in the West for S-E to forget it originally greenlit it as a mobile game. I just want another decent budget Yoko Taro game without the need for devious blackmail and absurdly fortuitous timing, and I don't think we'll get another this gen unless he and Taura/PlatinumGames get another stab with this engine while the iron is still hot (as in, not 7 years removed from the previous game).

Hopefully it blows the hell up on Steam.

I think SE will appreciate the critical acclaim and the fact that the game most likely has exceeded expectations in Japan at least. I think it has a better chance of helping Yoko Taro than hurting him at this point.

 

[Maxinas]

I'm sort of apprehensive that no matter how well Automata sells in Japan, it won't sell nearly as well relatively speaking in the West for S-E to forget it originally greenlit it as a mobile game. I just want another decent budget Yoko Taro game without the need for devious blackmail and absurdly fortuitous timing, and I don't think we'll get another this gen unless he and Taura/PlatinumGames get another stab with this engine while the iron is still hot (as in, not 7 years removed from the previous game).

Hopefully it blows the hell up on Steam.

Are they expecting it to sell well in the West? I mean, regardless of the hype surrounding it, they must be aware that Nier isn't exactly a huge brand name.

 

[casiopao]

Erm. More like, is there really a chance that the Switch is so unsuccessful that MK8 Switch doesn't pass the WiiU one by the holidays this year.

Hmmm. I dunno here. I had quite a low expectation on MK8 Deluxe especially on the naming there. If they like just renamed it into like MK9, i can see it do much better. As Deluxe sometimes will push away those who had bought the game before on Wii U.

Thats my view though.

 

[SalvaPot]

Hmmm. I dunno here. I had quite a low expectation on MK8 Deluxe especially on the naming there. If they like just renamed it into like MK9, i can see it do much better. As Deluxe sometimes will push away those who had bought the game before on Wii U.

Thats my view though.

Naming it Mario Kart 9 would be lying. Imagine the GAF threads about the outrage.

Then again, Splatoon 2 seems like the same game as 1 at a glance, the trailer actually made a good job on showing what was different.

 

[nordique]

Let's put it this way. Let's say we assume Mario Kart 7's total sales in Japan are the only people interested in a Mario Kart game at all. And let's say every single person who bought Mario Kart 8 on WiiU don't want to buy it again. There's still enough people left over from that for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe to outsell Mario Kart 8 if those people end up getting a Switch. LOL.

Whoa....Really??

That's pretty cool!

I hope it does well. I'd like to see the switch succeed very much in Japan

 

[noobie]

PS3 VS PS4

------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   PlayStation 3   |   PlayStation 4   |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/11/11)   |    (2014/02/22)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   PS4 - PS3  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
| 158|   38.498|3.825.217|   43.489|4.444.931|       619.714|
| 159|   34.752|3.859.969|   37.807|4.482.738|       622.769|
| 160|   46.558|3.906.527|   35.300|4.518.038|       611.511| 
| 161|   57.782|3.964.309|         |         |              | 
| 162|   75.086|4.039.395|         |         |              |  
| 163|  237.086|4.276.481|         |         |              |  
| 164|  110.519|4.387.000|         |         |              |  
| 165|  114.367|4.501.367|         |         |              |  
| 166|   61.591|4.562.958|         |         |              | 
| 167|   35.156|4.598.114|         |         |              | 
| 168|   26.966|4.625.080|         |         |              | 
| 169|   34.431|4.659.511|         |         |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Thank you for the very interesting graph.. It will be interesting to see how much lead PS4 forfeit by the week 166.. I will be quite impressed if the lead stays above 200k.

 

[casiopao]

Naming it Mario Kart 9 would be lying. Imagine the GAF threads about the outrage.

Then again, Splatoon 2 seems like the same game as 1 at a glance, the trailer actually made a good job on showing what was different.

Well, i mean, we are talking on ways to maximize sales right?^^ I am just saying MK9 as the title is going to be a better way to maximize sales there.^^

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Are they expecting it to sell well in the West? I mean, regardless of the hype surrounding it, they must be aware that Nier isn't exactly a huge brand name.

It's fairly obvious Automata didn't have that big of a budget. I imagine Square / Yoko Taro would be ecstatic if it beat 1.5 million WW from PS4 and PC. PC could crack 1 million from Steam sales alone. DLC will happen too.

I also think whatever follow-up non-mobile game we get from Yoko Taro, is most likely to be Automata 2. Mainly because of the critical acclaim, but also that SE are tight and they could reuse a bunch of art assets. I know he tends not to do the same game twice, but Automata is the first game of his that has somewhat wide appeal. And it would be good to strike while the iron is hot.

Though I'd prefer Drakengard 4.

 

[ZSaberLink]

With Minecraft selling as well as it has on the Vita, PS4 & Wii U, I assume that means Minecraft is getting younger kids to play these consoles right? As such, what secondary software is being made to cater to these kids? Close to 10% of PS4 owners seemingly bought Minecraft. The Wii U had typical Nintendo software, but given the 400K or so sales of Minecraft on PS4 (including digital), are there any kid oriented titles being made by JP devs that are also releasing on PS4? It's just interesting to see the 2 evergreen titles of the PS4 be GTAV Best-price Edition and Minecraft of all things (now the 3rd and 4th best selling titles on PS4).

 

[Branduil]

Minecraft sells well on everything. The Switch version will sell gangbusters too.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

I wonder if Monster Hunter 5 is next year.

 

[metalslimer]

The interesting thing will be what happens when Mario Kart 9 releases on a system. We've really yet to see what happens when one of these titles releases twice on the same system.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Decided to list out the titles that released this year that have sold over 50K thus far. Famitsu data includes digital and was retrieved from gamedatalibrary.

2017 PS4 titles with sales >= 50K
- Resident Evil 7: biohazard - 231.188 / 333.258
- NieR: Automata - 182.762 / 235.096
- Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue - 133.442 / 193.143
- Nioh - 89.903 / 150.027
- Horizon: Zero Dawn - 109.739 / 141.807
- Super Robot Wars V - 95.222 / 113.653
- Gravity Rush 2 - 69.092 / 122.905
- Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands - 94.017 / NEW
- Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony - 47.509 / 66.581
- Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX - 65.214 / NEW
- Valkyria Revolution - 40.470 / 61.963
- For Honor - 41.987 / 59.408

2017 Switch titles with sales >= 50K
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 193.060 / 240.992
- 1 2 Switch - 82.392 / 104.847
- Super Bomberman R - 39.609 / 49.290 (basically there)

2017 3DS titles with sales >= 50K
- Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional - 115.673 / 163.110
- Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World - 52.758 / 117.634

2017 Vita titles with sales >= 50K
- Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony - 85.043 / 117.597
- Super Robot Wars V - 84.933 / 100.738

2017 Wii U titles with sales >= 50K
- Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 45.052 / 62.734 (for some reason this has the totally wrong release date and some Taiko title is listed as 3/3/2017 on gamedatalibrary)

 

[Branduil]

The interesting thing will be what happens when Mario Kart 9 releases on a system. We've really yet to see what happens when one of these titles releases twice on the same system.

Seems presumptuous to think the Switch will have Mario Kart 9, rather than them just making more DLC for 8.

 

[Chris1964]

PSP, PS3, and Wii?

PS2, PSP and Wii faced supply problems at first weeks since they launched with huge hype behind them (PSP had lower shipments but still), for PS3 I'm not sure but it had a super limited initial shipment so maybe it's there too.

For untracked consoles Super Famicom is likely in that list.

And that's it with consoles that initial sales are limited from supply.

 

[duckroll]

Seems presumptuous to think the Switch will have Mario Kart 9, rather than them just making more DLC for 8.

Isn't the MK team making Arms now?

 

[Mario007]

Mario Kart 8 isn't portable. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is portable. What's your point?

But I thought the Switch wasn't a portable due to its high price?

 

[madstarr12]

But I thought the Switch wasn't a portable due to its high price?

It's a portable when it's convenient for the argument.

 

[Branduil]

Isn't the MK team making Arms now?

I'm pretty sure they are. And I'd love to see them given the freedom after finishing that to work on something else that's new, rather than another Mario Kart for a system that already has a great one.

 

[Mario007]

It's a portable when it's convenient for the argument.

The true power of the hybrid

 

[duckroll]

But I thought the Switch wasn't a portable due to its high price?

Why don't you go back to making threads about your insecurities while the adults are talking here?

 

[samar11]

With what we've been hearing about the stock situation I bet the vast majority of those Switches were sold on March 6th.

The Switch likely would have sold better this week if they had units to actually sell.

Any proof it would it would if sold better ?

 

[Nirolak]

Erm. More like, is there really a chance that the Switch is so unsuccessful that MK8 Switch doesn't pass the WiiU one by the holidays this year.

Let's put it this way. Let's say we assume Mario Kart 7's total sales in Japan are the only people interested in a Mario Kart game at all. And let's say every single person who bought Mario Kart 8 on WiiU don't want to buy it again. There's still enough people left over from that for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe to outsell Mario Kart 8 if those people end up getting a Switch. LOL.

How much are you expecting the Switch to move by the holiday season on this note, especially among people who didn't buy a Wii U?

 

[duckroll]

How much are you expecting the Switch to move by the holiday season on this note, especially among people who didn't buy a Wii U?

Depends on how it's positioned by the end of the year. Right now without any changes with the current release line up, Splatoon 2 is really the only thing that could "take off" so to speak. I think the current audience for the system through 2017 will still be either people moving on from the WiiU, or people who are sold on a new Nintendo home console but passed no the WiiU. I'm not expecting the majority of 3DS owners to jump on just yet.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Isn't the MK team making Arms now?

Was that ever confirmed, or are we just going off of Yabuki producing(?) it.

 

[Vinnk]

Any proof it would it would if sold better ?

Units are being sold for about $90 over the retail price at Suruga and a lot of other online retailers are sold out. That shows that there is more demand than supply. Anecdotally, I know of 3 people currently looking for Switch systems that can't get them.

Hard proof is hard to come by, but standard economics would indicate that if supply has not met demand, then it would have sold more if there were more units.

 

[Mario007]

Why don't you go back to making threads about your insecurities while the adults are talking here?

Why don't you take a joke when you're dishing one out on the very same page of this thread?

 

[duckroll]

Why don't you take a joke when you're dishing one out on the very same page of this thread?

90% of what I post is a joke, even if it is mean spirited. Unless we are talking about Michael Bay movies or Zelda games, I assure you that I hardly actually get upset about anything or mean to hurt anyone. I have clearly failed if you did not see it as me ribbing you back for ribbing me about something, so I apologize.

 

[Kazuo Hirai]

Asia PS+ add Disgaea5 today, would JP follow?

 

[Mario007]

90% of what I post is a joke, even if it is mean spirited. Unless we are talking about Michael Bay movies or Zelda games, I assure you that I hardly actually get upset about anything or mean to hurt anyone. I have clearly failed if you did not see it as me ribbing you back for ribbing me about something, so I apologize.

Sorry as well comes from me in that case as I thought you were going full out and did not recognise the joke! Will take more care next time I'm reading your comments! Sorry again.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Asia PS+ add Disgaea5 today, would JP follow?

NA and EU PS+ is so miserable compared to Asia PS+ recently. If only the games available there supported English language.

I'm sort of apprehensive that no matter how well Automata sells in Japan, it won't sell nearly as well relatively speaking in the West for S-E to forget it originally greenlit it as a mobile game. I just want another decent budget Yoko Taro game without the need for devious blackmail and absurdly fortuitous timing, and I don't think we'll get another this gen unless he and Taura/PlatinumGames get another stab with this engine while the iron is still hot (as in, not 7 years removed from the previous game).

Hopefully it blows the hell up on Steam.

Steam is not a magical marketplace where a game 'blows up'. There is a limit to the audience on Steam who can buy niche Japanese game and this limit has yet to pass a huge number like 1 million sales. Yearly discounts keep the sales going on but the week 1 sales for niche games aren't exactly lighting charts on fire either.

NieR: Automata on Steam should be able to open at 100k and above on Steam. The baseline at which it can sell at full price isn't really higher based on historical data. We have Dragon's Dogma and Metal Gear Rising, both of which were critically acclaimed, and although late ports, they sold well. But even these games have yet to hit a number like 1 million.

I think with good word of mouth, NieR: Automata should be able to pass 500k after an year and more. It will be interesting to see its sales in launch week and how much it can sell at full price.

*In before someone starts commenting on how digital sales have higher revenue hence discounts don't matter.

Speaking of Asia PSN... Wtf? https://asia.playstation.com/sg/en/newsdetail?id=4830

Wow, I thought they tightened up their security after the last major hack?

 

[duckroll]

Speaking of Asia PSN... Wtf? https://asia.playstation.com/sg/en/newsdetail?id=4830

 

[Exquisik]

Thank you for the very interesting graph.. It will be interesting to see how much lead PS4 forfeit by the week 166.. I will be quite impressed if the lead stays above 200k.

Is there any big release coming out in the next 4 weeks for the PS4 in JPN? If not then the average at the highest would be about 35K a week. And at that rate, the PS4 leads will most likely be cut down to below 200K (4.72 million PS4 vs 4.56 million PS3) by week 166.