Yeah, at the moment Wii U is not in a different situation than 3DS a couple years ago, before MHH3G, 3DMario land and Mario kart 7 were announced; from then on things have changed and Nintendo may use a similar strategy for Wii U.
Only thing, aside from few big IPs(FF, Yakuza, Metal gear) there are not many huge Japanese third-party home-console games, as the big guns are all on handhelds already (DQ, MH).
Or, to put it down straight, no way I can see Wii U selling nearly as much as 3DS in Japan.