Could you provide links for that because I always thought KH did best in Japan? I could be totally wrong though. I accept that there's a bigger audience in the US over Europe because of the Disney connection, though. The game hasn't crossed 1 million mark yet though, Square would be talking about it if it did, which isn't a great performance for a KH title on a platform that is currently on fire in Japan and doing ok in the NA and EU.
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Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2013 (Mar 18 - Mar 24)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
metalslimer
Member
True, but the videogame market is not a very stable one and it takes years to get a product to the market. It'll be interesting to see, but I think they will truck along. I interested in seeing Iwata's successor and the outline he sets out.
Edit: Inside info has generally been pretty shit the last few years with a few exceptions, so some random person making a random claim is not where i would place my trust
Oh, thank you. I can't search properly on mobile. From the way he worded it, he sounded like he knew something. Sorry for rumor-mongering if it counts
Will we start with predictions for next week?
Here is mine.
3DS: 75.000
PS Vita: 30.000
PS3: 25.000
WiiU: 15.000
PSP: 12.000
Wii: 1.500
X360: 500
I bet for a little bump to WiiU sales and a little down to Vita this week.
I hope Vita keep over 25.000 from here, that would be real good for the handheld.
Here is mine.
3DS: 75.000
PS Vita: 30.000
PS3: 25.000
WiiU: 15.000
PSP: 12.000
Wii: 1.500
X360: 500
I bet for a little bump to WiiU sales and a little down to Vita this week.
I hope Vita keep over 25.000 from here, that would be real good for the handheld.
It's funny how almost everyone probably felt this way for both the Vita and the WiiU. I feel that in general there is a great desire from consumers to have a strong portable gaming device which can also be a console connected to the TV at home. It's kinda baffling to me that both Sony and Nintendo dropped the ball so hard to providing such a solution which would benefit gamers both in Japan and the rest of the world, since it can adapt to the different lifestyles and cultures internationally.
ShockingAlberto
Member
The question is not "Does Nintendo really need (just throwing this out there) Saint's Row IV?" Probably not. If all systems were on equal footing and SRIV skipped Nintendo's console, it would be a "Well, that's weird" moment but it wouldn't be a big deal.
But SRIV being announced and, timeline-wise, absolutely being in a development time period where the option to be on Wii U was there, is another stone stacked on Nintendo's back. If that game were on Wii U as well, they would not have to fight the perception that it is completely stillborn.
But now that perception's there and every game that doesn't get announced for Wii U makes it exponentially harder to change the system's mindshare.
They need to write checks to even get treated like a warm body in the room. After that, they can consider how to start moving forward if at all possible, but they're not there yet.
But SRIV being announced and, timeline-wise, absolutely being in a development time period where the option to be on Wii U was there, is another stone stacked on Nintendo's back. If that game were on Wii U as well, they would not have to fight the perception that it is completely stillborn.
But now that perception's there and every game that doesn't get announced for Wii U makes it exponentially harder to change the system's mindshare.
They need to write checks to even get treated like a warm body in the room. After that, they can consider how to start moving forward if at all possible, but they're not there yet.
Unless Nintendo is going after more quasi-canceled games like Bayonetta I don't know what they could be getting other than ports.
Edit: Nirolak beat me pretty bad.
Gianni Merryman
Member
OK, I stand corrected, still I hold on to the point I was making: the turning point for 3DS was when the Trinity hit the shelves, and hopefully Nintendo must have a good line-up in the pipeline for Q3/Q4, including games that have been confirmed to be in the works(Mario3D, Mario kart, Bayonetta 2, Monolith game, Retro game), but of which we have seen just a few screenshots if any.
frankie_baby
Member
yeah ok
3DS: 64000
PS Vita: 19000
PS3: 20000
WiiU: 26000
PSP: 13000
Wii: 1600
X360: 450
Oh, thank you. I can't search properly on mobile. From the way he worded it, he sounded like he knew something. Sorry for rumor-mongering if it counts
No that's fine. We do have some people who drop hints on the forum, so it's worth investigating for accuracy/insider knowledge when it happens.
Prediction League April, 2013
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Apr 01 to Apr 28):
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 82.000
[3DS] Cardfight!! Vanguard Ride to Victory (18 days) - 70.000
[3DS] Tomodachi Collection Shin Seikatsu (11 days) - 480.000
[PS3+360] Naruto Shippuden Ultimate Ninja Storm 3 (11 days) - 150.000
[PSP] 7th Dragon 2020 II (11 days) - 95.000
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma Dark Arisen (4 days) - 101.000
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Apr 01 to Apr 28):
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 82.000
[3DS] Cardfight!! Vanguard Ride to Victory (18 days) - 70.000
[3DS] Tomodachi Collection Shin Seikatsu (11 days) - 480.000
[PS3+360] Naruto Shippuden Ultimate Ninja Storm 3 (11 days) - 150.000
[PSP] 7th Dragon 2020 II (11 days) - 95.000
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma Dark Arisen (4 days) - 101.000
metalslimer
Member
I think the top executives in Japan truly believe they don't need many of these games and they are the strongest publisher in the world so who cares. They've been walled up in their bubble of success for so long they've completely lost hold of the market they are in. Nintendo is going to go ahead and launch their big games this holiday and if it fails Iwata will be gone because he trul believes he can run the system without investing in 3rd party support. With vita, all they had to to kill it was to pull the MH card, but there is no one game on consoles
He is right, US is the biggest market for KH.
For example the best selling Square game during the PS2 era in US was Kingdom Hearts, not FFX.
The gba game sold more than 1M in US and the DS spinoff was close to 1M.
ShockingAlberto
Member
I genuinely doubt any answer is that simple.
I feel that this is a dead end strategy which will end with lots of wasted money with no benefit to Nintendo, consumers, or the industry in the long term though. It's not even a matter of mindshare anymore. If developers and publishers are actively not interested in making games for the WiiU or putting multiplatform titles on the WiiU, there is a reason for that. That reason is probably not "because they are waiting for Nintendo to write checks". So we're looking at a more complex problem here.
This is not a problem which can be solved by Nintendo throwing money at it, because the money they throw at this problem will disappear into a well and never be seen again. Right now, let's say Nintendo throws out 500 million dollars to attract every third party developer and publisher to ensure every single multiplatform PS3/360 game in the next 5 years will be on the WiiU. Okay... so what? Now the WiiU will compete with the PS3 and 360 for maybe 2-3 years at most before those platforms exit the market completely. It still won't have the appeal to developers as being the actual new generation. Their time and money are invested into how the best make use of much newer technology than what the WiiU has. That battle is already lost.
Consumers can see this, publishers can see this, developers can see this, even Nintendo investors can probably see this. Moneyhatting isn't a viable solution out of this problem.
metalslimer
Member
Probable there are a lot of other factors involved, but its the only way i can wrap my head around the wiiu having one of the worst lineups ive seen for a system.
I dont think its the solution to the problem just damage control to change their perception somewhat going forward because if they truly lose all support in the console space it will end up costing them a lot more than 500 million.
Nintendo couldn't be in much worse position thanks to the management over the last few years with decisions from a decade ago coming to bite them
I'm glad you don't run Nintendo, because that would be a horrible business decision.
Thanks guys.
I read it more like a guess-hope, the way it was worded, than a real info- rumor.
I'm more interested whether his statement of KH selling best in the NA territory as opposed to Japan is true. Also interested to see whether this was supported by the handheld KH titles, because as far as I know BBS did better in Japan than in NA.
ShockingAlberto
Member
It may not be a long term solution, but you don't really argue over which brand of defibrillators is your favorite when you need one. Until they can find a game or idea that hits the mass audience, all they can do is spend money hoping to stay alive.
2-3 years of competing with the PS3 and 360 is 2-3 years of competing with the PS3 and 360, a position that probably looks damn good in comparison to the current disaster area they're residing in. Right now their best bet is being an also-ran until they can get a handle on their own software.
Well I feel admitting that it was a fuck up and letting it die quietly while investing time and money into planning the next step would be more beneficial in the long term rather than spending substantial funds moneyhatting games for the WiiU at this point.
ShockingAlberto
Member
So what is Nintendo's solution, then? What solves the problem of every single game announcement explicitly not including the Wii U? Not "We'll consider it eventually" or "We're not talking about this right now," but "We won't do it."
Kill the WiiU.
ShockingAlberto
Member
If they're not trying to save the Wii U and are merely trying to move past it, that might be a better decision.
But killing a home console is the ball game. They won't just be able to come back in five years. Consumer trust will be pretty much done and a new handheld or a console/handheld hybrid will be hit with the Wii U's reputation for generations.
Yeah, I think the ultimate question is "does Nintendo feel the WiiU is salvageable in any way". If they think it is, perhaps some moneyhatting mixed with creative deals with interested parties could save it. I just don't feel that's likely, so my position here is that Nintendo's best option is to look for the fastest and least painful way out of the deathpit they created, and move on.
I guess if I was Nintendo, what I would do at this point is focus on preparing for the next devices I'm making.
Whether it be a new handheld and a new home console or a new handheld-home-console, my focus would be on making games for audiences and genres I currently don't have, and trying to build up franchises for each of them.
It may lose money in the short term as the titles have ho-hum sales, but at least the next time I released a platform, I would have titles that could conceivably appeal to audiences who skipped out on the Wii U, and also help build audiences that third parties might want to sell to with their existing franchises/products instead of just ignoring the platform due to it being a poor match.
It would kind of be like what Microsoft attempted in the Xbox era and Sony attempted in the PS3 era.
Of course they shouldn't drop their existing line-up to do this, but I feel they should definitely work on the expansion even if these aren't hit products, and then bundle them in and/or sell them for very cheap six months after launch simply to get them in the hands of as many people as possible.
Whether it be a new handheld and a new home console or a new handheld-home-console, my focus would be on making games for audiences and genres I currently don't have, and trying to build up franchises for each of them.
It may lose money in the short term as the titles have ho-hum sales, but at least the next time I released a platform, I would have titles that could conceivably appeal to audiences who skipped out on the Wii U, and also help build audiences that third parties might want to sell to with their existing franchises/products instead of just ignoring the platform due to it being a poor match.
It would kind of be like what Microsoft attempted in the Xbox era and Sony attempted in the PS3 era.
Of course they shouldn't drop their existing line-up to do this, but I feel they should definitely work on the expansion even if these aren't hit products, and then bundle them in and/or sell them for very cheap six months after launch simply to get them in the hands of as many people as possible.
Well, probably it's going to be the future direction for Nintendo, especially considering how Nintendo is far more successful right now with handhelds not just saleswise, but perspection wise too, with Japanese third parties putting lots of their titles on it, which is basically the opposite situation Sony is in right now with Vita and PS3/4. Having just one console to support for Nintendo would mean no droughts anymore, having many third parties on board from Japan, and they could even bring some of their biggest "home" franchises since it's an home too.
Probably this is useless speculation, but I feel it's possible that they're waiting for when they can release an handheld powerful enough to not just output games on a TV, but games on a TV not looking bad (I mean, 3DS games can look pretty bad on a big screen due to resolution being far different XD) without it being priced too high. A portable device not pricey with something like Wii U graphics and PS4/720 effects could certainly be considered "acceptable" by Western audience too, with diminished returns and all. It's quite some time I think they should follow the "homeled" route, it would be by far the best thing to do.
metalslimer
Member
The problem here is a new console is at a minimum 2-3 years away. Even if they wanted to drop it, it would be financially crushing to do so. I agree with Nirolak that they should start preparing for a new system.
KH 1,2,CoM,whatever/2 sold more in US than in Japan.
By "dropping" the console, what I mean is that they should continue and finish whatever games they are currently making for it, forget about attracting any developers with any sort of bribes, tune down marketing on the system bit by bit, and once everything they are currently working on for the system is out in a year or two, that's it. Anything else would be tiny droplets of third party support.
It wouldn't be Nintendo making a press statement about how the WiiU is dead. They should never do that, but they should just stop investing much more into the system from this point on.
Nintendo should've developed the 3DS and Wii U in conjunction and make them work together.
Make the 3DS a tablet-like device with buttons, something akin to the U-pad but sleeker in design, with a closed environment like the eShop, and it could still have used carts or something. Without the 3D they could've focused on a better OS, a better digital store, interface and last but not least, better horsepower.
They could've used a lot of their game-friendly designs still like spotpass, streetpass, the friends list, home button to go to a browser without quitting the game, communities...
And at the same time, leave the Wii U with a normal controller, make it somewhat more capable and if they wanted to push asymmetric play that much, create a way to use the 3DS-tablet to control the game, where ONE bigger screen (at least as big as the GamePad's) with buttons would've worked.
Sure it's easier said than done, and even more now that we have a more clear picture of what's going on, but that's what I think they should've done.
This is all just whimsical of course since that's in the past and now all that's left is to focus on the future.. and I have to agree with ShockingAlberto.
They need to fill the void asap.
Make the 3DS a tablet-like device with buttons, something akin to the U-pad but sleeker in design, with a closed environment like the eShop, and it could still have used carts or something. Without the 3D they could've focused on a better OS, a better digital store, interface and last but not least, better horsepower.
They could've used a lot of their game-friendly designs still like spotpass, streetpass, the friends list, home button to go to a browser without quitting the game, communities...
And at the same time, leave the Wii U with a normal controller, make it somewhat more capable and if they wanted to push asymmetric play that much, create a way to use the 3DS-tablet to control the game, where ONE bigger screen (at least as big as the GamePad's) with buttons would've worked.
Sure it's easier said than done, and even more now that we have a more clear picture of what's going on, but that's what I think they should've done.
This is all just whimsical of course since that's in the past and now all that's left is to focus on the future.. and I have to agree with ShockingAlberto.
They need to fill the void asap.
metalslimer
Member
Agreed then, even under the most optimistic realities Wiiu doesn't end up selling that well at this point. I guess i wonder should they even drop the price if they decide to shift focus.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
It's likely on the cusp of 1m worldwide given the inital western shipment (650k) and known Japanese sellthrough (300-350k). Maybe we'll get an update for SE's annual report.
Shipment info is pretty easy to find for the last gen games. This is all on their Wikipedia pages:
Kingdom Hearts (as of Dec 06)
NA: 3m
JP: 1.5m
PAL: 1.1m
Kingdom Hearts II (as of Dec 06)
NA: 1.7m
JP: 1.1m
PAL: 700k
Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories (as of Aug 09)
NA: 940k
JP: 410k
PAL: 200k
Official data for 358 is a bit more out of date as it had pretty amazing US legs (over 800k sold through from a debut month of around 200k going by NPD iirc). The US is by a huge margin the most important market for KH, BBS is the only game I believe that did the most in Japan, for obvious reasons.
lol
Nintendo have yet to push strongly the WiiU (software isn't there).
Really? Even Days? Would you have a link for that? (I'm genuinely interested here, not trying to discredit what you're saying).
EDIT: never mind, already posted!
the solution is to publish more 3rd party games (B2, W101, LEGO, Rayman), create more partnerships (SMTxFE), create new dev teams, and any other method that involves Nintendo having their hand in the pie. If there's a game Nintendo deems important to have on their platform ideally they would provide incentives, perhaps in the form of insurance. To simply pay for multiplats is an extremely short sighted move that would only result in more competition, cutting into the sales of Nintendo published games. They'd be losing money on both ends, and there'd never be an end to it. Like putting a band aid on a bullet wound.
I think this is generally a given though. R&D on new tech basically starts the moment the old is out of the way, and Iwata said they're looking at a potential handheld/home hybrid.
I think the only conceivable way that the Wii U will be out of the picture come 2015 is if Iwata fails to turn it around and is fired, and frankly I don't think Nintendo wants to be in the position to have the Wii U declared as a massive blemish on their console history. That's only going to hurt the prospects going into the next console, especially since Wii U can generally be seen as Nintendo's attempt at striking a compromise between new experiences and hardcore audiences.
At the very least I'm optimistic in believing that Nintendo has a plan for the console, because else we wouldn't even have it out by now and it's only been a couple of months since it's release. It's just aggravating that they're keeping quiet on their policies and releases, and I'm not particularly sure how in comparison the drought looked like on other consoles. On one hand it might mean larger megatons but on the other hand it can also lead to the greatest backfires.
Coolio, cheers.
Mindshare wise the system is beyond fucked in the West. Beyond fucked. I am still half expecting AC4 and Watch Dogs to get shuttered- those 2 are the glaring exception to what we've been seeing.
Nintendo's only hope is in Japan, and I *assumed* Nintendo and Iwata were working extremely hard behind the scenes to at the very least position Wii U as a viable mutli platform option. Of course, barring some sort of blowout at E3 or something, it doesn't look like they actually were doing that and/or were not at all successful.
Say Nintendo does kill the Wii U, where do they go from there? They can't realistically release a PS4/720 competitor midway through those platform's life-cycles as they'll fall into the same level of third party support as they currently have. Dev teams will be too busy, and strained for resources to add an additional SKU to the pipeline. They could try another gimmick, but there's only so many you can pull off before they no longer make sense with video games. 3D, and asymmetrical gameplay have obviously not been the selling points Nintendo hoped for them to be. Do they just continue onwards with the 3DS, ignoring home consoles until the PS4/720 are at the end of their days, and launch a hybrid?
In 2012 KH3D sold more than 300K in US, it's very likely in the end US sales will easiily surpass the japanese one since there it did quite badly.
This is an important question too I feel. Nintendo has put themselves into a bubble that is getting increasingly hard to get out of. At this stage, I'd say that the Gamecube, their worst performing console (not counting Virtual Boy), was arguably the least of their entire problems.
Honestly, at this point all I can see Nintendo do is bite the bullet and let the Wii U run its course the upcoming gen. I think this generation having gone to the extents of desensitizing people is making the Wii U's prospects just look worse, and a flat-out admission on Nintendo's part that they fucked up by giving up on it this early in it's lifetime is not going to help anyone's case. Virtual Boy could afford being euthanized because of the abysmal numbers and other Nintendo hardware being at a high, but at this point Wii U is just stuck in the half-assed department.
You reap what you sow. Nintendo's only reasonable option is just give it all this generation, hope it can be salvaged like the 3DS eventually was and focus on using that massive warchest to mend relationships and come out with games. By the time this gen ends, if they're still in the business, they can hopefully recuperate from it by putting out something better, but lord knows what that'll be.
slaughterking
Member
I honestly feel like Nintendo should consider not making their own platforms anymore. After the tremendous success of the NDS and Wii it was inevitable and absolutely reasonable for them to continue their hardware business, but with the eventual WiiU disaster and the questionable success of the 3DS you really have to wonder if the risks and the longterm consequences of a struggling platform are worth the potential reward.
Of course I understand that giving up the hardware business is an admission of defeat that Nintendo would like to avoid and every fan would be rightfully concerned since we've all seen what happened to SEGA, but I do believe that it would be incredibly liberating for Nintendo not having to worry about designing and selling hardware to build a userbase they can sell their games to.
I do think Nintendo has their heart at the right place when they are designing their consoles, but if the best they can do these days is build expensive, underpowered hardware with lacking OS functionality which they have to sell below cost and that neither the consumer nor 3rd party developers nor (seemingly) Nintendo themselves adequately support you have to wonder if they are still doing what is best for them.
If Nintendo would handle the transition to a software-only company as smart as I think they would I have no doubt that we could enjoy quality Nintendo software for years and years and years to come.
I'm not sure if that would also be the case with their current strategy.
Of course I understand that giving up the hardware business is an admission of defeat that Nintendo would like to avoid and every fan would be rightfully concerned since we've all seen what happened to SEGA, but I do believe that it would be incredibly liberating for Nintendo not having to worry about designing and selling hardware to build a userbase they can sell their games to.
I do think Nintendo has their heart at the right place when they are designing their consoles, but if the best they can do these days is build expensive, underpowered hardware with lacking OS functionality which they have to sell below cost and that neither the consumer nor 3rd party developers nor (seemingly) Nintendo themselves adequately support you have to wonder if they are still doing what is best for them.
If Nintendo would handle the transition to a software-only company as smart as I think they would I have no doubt that we could enjoy quality Nintendo software for years and years and years to come.
I'm not sure if that would also be the case with their current strategy.
I dunno..I'm pretty damn pessimistic about the Wii U right now, and I absolutely think the thing is dead as a viable platform in the West for 3rd parties, but this talk still sounds really premature to me given the relatively recent history of consoles making pretty impressive turnarounds.
If Nintendo's big plan, which I assume is Mario Kart+3D Mario+ price drop fails to do much then ok, but talking of killing the Wii before then sounds very unrealistic.
If Nintendo's big plan, which I assume is Mario Kart+3D Mario+ price drop fails to do much then ok, but talking of killing the Wii before then sounds very unrealistic.
I was not on or lurking GAF during the early days of generation 8, but was this place always this pessimistic about faltering devices? Was the same thing not said for the 3ds and PS3? You would think after the turnaround both systems made that there would be a little bit more optimism.
No Nintendo home console has done a turnaround from bad to good.
If good to bad is possible (Wii) then why not bad to good? Talking of killing a machine before a 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Retro and Smash Bros. is extremely premature, even given the grim present status and immediate future.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Both turn around were due in -large- part to third party support.
The question is whether the Wii U ever gets it. Everything points to no. Can Nintendo alone turn the fortunes of the system around?
Mmh, I'm seeing a future hybrid from Nintendo being discussed a lot right now. What if we discuss about it in a separate thread? I could make it in a few hours, and there we could discuss about pros and cons, our possible ideas for it, etc.etc. Tell me what you think.