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[legend166]

I think if there's one thing this generation has shown us all around the world, is that the market is now large enough and fluid enough that a platform's fortunes can change quite a lot over the years.

We've seen platforms recover from slow starts to achieve amazing sales (DS), platforms that had atrocious starts recover to a relatively respectable level (PS3), platforms that looked like they were on their deathbed get a huge kick start (PSP) and we've seen platforms that broke sales records seemingly die prematurely (Wii).

And to add to it, the old saying of 'sales = games = sales = games' doesn't ring true when a Nintendo platform leads, for varying reasons of stupidity.

I don't think it's like previous generations where the fortunes of a platform seemed to be set in stone after 6 months. It's way to early to know what the 3DS will do over the next 4-5 years. It might not make sales age predictions as fun, but it just seems to be the way it is.

 

[LOCK]

Very true legend 166, people are judging the system based on the short term rather than the long term.

 

[Captain Chaos]

Anyone tracking 3DS vs DS sales?

 

[gerg]

Anyone tracking 3DS vs DS sales?

I'm not sure, but I don't think the comparison is worthwhile, tbh. If, after all the DS' success, Nintendo can hope to only match that console's sales (rather than greatly surpass them) then I'd say that their standards are pretty low.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Very true legend 166, people are judging the system based on the short term rather than the long term.

It's not even fair at this point to even compare the systems,

All the other systems had commercials 2 weeks after their launch, 3DS didn't. 3ds had it's two biggest titles for march delayed by circumstances that had nothing to do with Nintendo. the other system didn't. Commercials are starting back up again, jokes are being traded around again, power stoppage is ending(till summer), life is returning to normal.

So let's wait for pilotwings to compare I say!

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Anyone tracking 3DS vs DS sales?

Assuming I'm working garaph correctly.

 

[cw_sasuke]

So let's wait for pilotwings to compare I say!

An IP that never was big in Japan wont change anything - same goes for Steel Diver, thats why Nintendo placed them as launch titles, they would have benefited the most if 3ds had launched as planned.

 

[DevilWillcry]

Too early for the doom and gloom talk guys. Now if the 3DS underwhelms during the holidays...then it's time to start worrying.

 

[Kyoufu]

I expect 3DS to start selling gangbusters when price is dropped and some killer apps are released. Pretty much like before.

E3 and TGS will be godlike.

 

[BowieZ]

Nintendo knows exactly what it's doing.

Letting 3DS word of mouth (the best advertising in this case) build gradually for 10 months (aided by various StreetPass features etc, and thanks to passionate early adopters) then BAM! holiday sales, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Kid Icarus and maybe a couple other big phat unannounced titles.

Maybe even a special holiday price (if not price drop).

And the masses go OHSHITWENEEDTHISNOW'STHERIGHTTIME

Meanwhile third parties are getting a long while to breathe easy as they are able to establish (new?) franchises for a new generation.

And, meanwhile, Nintendo has earnt a pretty delicious extra profit from the higher price.

 

[big_z]

if nintendo shows off and starts releasing compelling software for the 3DS things will pick up. im worried they'll be lazy and shit out more half assed stuff like nintendogs, pilotwings or old game ports. nintendo needs to learn you cant just repackage the same shit time and time again.

im sure mario karts will push sales into 100k pre week range. newsmb3Ds later in the year will do the same.

 

[hirokazu]

Very true legend 166, people are judging the system based on the short term rather than the long term.

Indeed, but this is sales-age, where we compare numbers and shit!

 

[tuffy]

I'll make the seemingly bold assertion that these early sales numbers are irrelevant for predicting the overall success or failure of the 3DS. Instead, these numbers are lagging indicators made in response to the quality and quantity of 3DS titles already on the market.

The leading indicators of its market success are the upcoming titles by 1st and 3rd parties. If the 3DS gets broad support from strong franchises by established developers, the market will follow and it will be a big success in the long term as people go where the games are.

So I'll hold off on any doom & gloom predictions until I see just what's coming out from who and on which systems during convention season.

 

[Kenka]

Where are all the news about the upcoming games such as Persona, FF and such ? Aside Slime Mori Mori, nothing ground-breaking seems to have received decent exposure yet.

 

[Chris1964]

I'm pretty sure we didn't get any figures.

I'm pretty sure you won't like them.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

Nintendo knows exactly what it's doing.

Letting 3DS word of mouth (the best advertising in this case) build gradually for 10 months (aided by various StreetPass features etc, and thanks to passionate early adopters) then BAM! holiday sales, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Kid Icarus and maybe a couple other big phat unannounced titles.

Maybe even a special holiday price (if not price drop).

And the masses go OHSHITWENEEDTHISNOW'STHERIGHTTIME

Meanwhile third parties are getting a long while to breathe easy as they are able to establish (new?) franchises for a new generation.

And, meanwhile, Nintendo has earnt a pretty delicious extra profit from the higher price.

Kid Icarus will be a driving force for the system? Lastly, I thought one system that had a Mario Kart game and an Animal Crossing game, didnt exactly light up console charts.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Kid Icarus will be a driving force for the system? Lastly, I thought one system that had a Mario Kart game and an Animal Crossing game, didnt exactly light up console charts.

Which are you talking about? N64 or Gamecube?

Spoiler

I know. It only proves the point doublely.

 

[m.i.s.]

Which are you talking about? N64 or Gamecube?

Spoiler

I know. It only proves the point doublely.

Just wait until this autumn won't you!!

Year of the 3DS! )

 

[Magicpaint]

Which are you talking about? N64 or Gamecube?

Spoiler

I know. It only proves the point doublely.

lol that's true but Animal Crossing and Mario Kart became much, much bigger when they hit the DS. They will sell big, but I am not sure they'll be system sellers like they were for the DS.

 

[Kinan]

Anyone tracking 3DS vs DS sales?

with this week (MC data):

 

[MidnightScott]

I wonder how 3DS is doing over here in North America?

 

[sillik]

Nintendo knows exactly what it's doing.

Letting 3DS word of mouth (the best advertising in this case) build gradually for 10 months (aided by various StreetPass features etc, and thanks to passionate early adopters) then BAM! holiday sales, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Kid Icarus and maybe a couple other big phat unannounced titles.

Maybe even a special holiday price (if not price drop).

And the masses go OHSHITWENEEDTHISNOW'STHERIGHTTIME

Meanwhile third parties are getting a long while to breathe easy as they are able to establish (new?) franchises for a new generation.

And, meanwhile, Nintendo has earnt a pretty delicious extra profit from the higher price.

[devil's advocate]
I'm sure Nintendo's calculations included the fact that the sequel to the single best selling DS franchise is doing nothing for the 3DS, the 3DS possibly battling 2 sony platforms in the near future, having its prime console suddenly taking a nosedive :rollseyes
[/devil's advocate]

i agree that a lot of doom-and-gloom stems from overreaction, but to simply wave it all off as if its Nintendo's masterplan is equally shortsighted, naive and, well dumb.

 

[Kinan]

I looks like its the first time? when Nintendo has done a new platform launch in February. Previously it has only launched redesignes, without huge immediate success:

 

[Clever Pun]

I looks like its the first time? when Nintendo has done a new platform launch in February. Previously it has only launched redesignes, without huge immediate success:

http://i53.tinypic.com/2qvz0c3.jpg

If I remember correctly, though, the DSL was subject to massive supply constraints when it launched. It would have sold much more per week if the supply had been there.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Assuming I'm working garaph correctly.

Spot on. Another that should be interesting to follow in coming months is the weekly numbers.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

An IP that never was big in Japan wont change anything - same goes for Steel Diver, thats why Nintendo placed them as launch titles, they would have benefited the most if 3ds had launched as planned.

I think I didn't state what I was trying to say clearly enough, pilotwings and steel diver are at least something, they have commercials, people might talk about them! Then it's fair to compare it to past launches

Seriously let's re-look at the situation, expecting the thing to sell in the past month would be more illogical, thus comparing it to past systems is kinda fruitless.

1. Nintendo stressed how important demo units were to selling the system - due to Power conservation demo units aren't running

2. Commercials are Nintendo's lifeblood - Due to self-restraint no commercials were run

3. Nintendo stressed importance of spacing out releases - the two games that had commercials planned for them(dead or alive and steel diver) both delayed.

4. To sell products you need trend theory - In this day and age you sell a product by creating a festival around it, Earthquake took over this. Not a festive mood. As I said before hearing about 10,000 of your dead countrymen is not the prime mood to be shooting virtual tennis balls at your friends face.

 

[charlequin]

People calling the 3DS a failure is jumping the gun.

Oh, sure, definitely. You'd have to be pretty dumb to call the 3DS a failure now, especially knowing how early it is and having seen last generation just how much effect the right software can have on a system's performance.

What is accurate, I think, is to say that the 3DS is currently underperforming in every territory, that it's had a very soft launch, and that its success is very dependent on some compelling software releasing soon.

The early launch in the year was a smart move, because it allows for them to have plentiful hardware at launch, more time to work on bigger titles for the fall, and use this time as a way to garner third party support.

I think it was a good idea in a vacuum, but it's worked out poorly in conjunction with both a dearth of strong first-party software and an excessive asking price.

This holiday will be very big for the 3DS.

Assuming some of the desirable Nintendo games come out in 2011, I can't imagine otherwise.

Nintendo knows exactly what it's doing.

That is a laughably easy statement to disprove in this particular context, given how severely Nintendo is going to miss their quarterly targets on the system and how angry their shareholders are going to be about it.

 

[donny2112]

Haven't read through the whole thread, yet, but glad I haven't seen any Heian-kyo-type excuses for 3DS pop up, yet.

"But in revenue, 3DS beats PSP hardware!"

 

[apana]

Oh, sure, definitely. You'd have to be pretty dumb to call the 3DS a failure now, especially knowing how early it is and having seen last generation just how much effect the right software can have on a system's performance.

What is accurate, I think, is to say that the 3DS is currently underperforming in every territory, that it's had a very soft launch, and that its success is very dependent on some compelling software releasing soon.



I think it was a good idea in a vacuum, but it's worked out poorly in conjunction with both a dearth of strong first-party software and an excessive asking price.



Assuming some of the desirable Nintendo games come out in 2011, I can't imagine otherwise.



That is a laughably easy statement to disprove in this particular context, given how severely Nintendo is going to miss their quarterly targets on the system and how angry their shareholders are going to be about it.

On top of the fact that when the fiscal year started they estimated Wii sales were going to be 18 million. They then dropped that to 17.5 million and now it has dropped to an expectation of 16 million.

 

[donny2112]

If I have Nintendogs already, is there really a compelling reason for me to get this new one?

All I've seen is videos, but you can't directly pet/brush/wash/etc. the dogs anymore. Since the dogs are in 3-D, they stay on the top screen, and you just see an outline on the bottom screen. That really stinks. They could've done like on DS and have the image shift from top to bottom for interaction, but I guess they didn't want to "undo" the 3-D for the transition. Cut down any enthusiasm (for me) for the game, at that point. :/

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

All I've seen is videos, but you can't directly pet/brush/wash/etc. the dogs anymore. Since the dogs are in 3-D, they stay on the top screen, and you just see an outline on the bottom screen. That really stinks. They could've done like on DS and have the image shift from top to bottom for interaction, but I guess they didn't want to "undo" the 3-D for the transition. Cut down any enthusiasm (for me) for the game, at that point. :/

It shows off a shortcoming in the system, but in practice this way doesn't really feel different than it did in the original. However, on the whole it doesn't really feel different than the original aside from cats, so to someone like Pureauthor I'd generally say it's not a compelling upgrade.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

On top of the fact that when the fiscal year started they estimated Wii sales were going to be 18 million. They then dropped that to 17.5 million and now it has dropped to an expectation of 16 million.

I wonder if it's going to drop even more , unless DQ X comes out this year Wii look really bad in Japan right now.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I wonder if it's going to drop even more

The fiscal year ended March 31, so the forecasting is over. Safe to say the prediction for the April 2011 - March 2012 year will be lower, though.

 

[Chris1964]

Assuming some of the desirable Nintendo games come out in 2011, I can't imagine otherwise.

I think 2011 3DS will mirror 2005 DS for Nintendo.

DS/3DS Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
Animal Crossing 3D
Mario Kart 3D
Maybe there is also Brain Training 3 but no one will care for it. (with who I was arguing for the impact of this game?)

 

[Dedication Through Light]

I think 2011 3DS will mirror 2005 DS for Nintendo.

DS/3DS Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
Animal Crossing 3D
Mario Kart 3D
Maybe there is also Brain Training 3 but no one will care for it. (with who I was arguing for the impact of this game?)

Okay, so that excites me, I hope you are right!

 

[Chris1964]

Okay, so that excites me, I hope you are right!

It's coming out every 2 years. 2011 is its year again.

[GBA] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Red Rescue Team (Pokemon Co.) {2005.11.17}
[NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Blue Rescue Team (Pokemon Co.) {2005.11.17}

[NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time / Darkness (Pokemon Co.) {2007.09.13}

[NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Sky (Pokemon Co.) {2009.04.18}

2012 will have Pokemon Ranger and main Pokemon.

 

[legend166]

Oh yeah, I definitely don't think Nintendo expected this, or are happy about it.

 

[Orgen]

I think 2011 3DS will mirror 2005 DS for Nintendo.

DS/3DS Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
Animal Crossing 3D
Mario Kart 3D
Maybe there is also Brain Training 3 but no one will care for it. (with who I was arguing for the impact of this game?)

I wasn't the one who argued with you about BT3, but I'm curious about your "no one will care for it". Care to explain why please?

Personally I don't think it could match the BT & BT2 sales (4 & 5 million right?) but it could be a million/2 million seller.

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

What's the excuse for Rune Factory: Oceans? Oceans is the very first Rune Factory game to be on a PlayStation platform and it outsold the Wii version despite the Wii version already having an audience for that series.

No game released for PS3/Wii will sell better on Wii. People who have both consoles will get the PS3 version, and people who have Wii only will not want the "inferior" version.

 

[nextgeneration]

Oh yeah, I definitely don't think Nintendo expected this, or are happy about it.

Nope, definitely not and the stockholders as well, as they're dumping the stock. In a little over a month and a half, the stock has lost 25% of its value and in Japan right now, it's down again. Investors are definitely concerned about the sales. Yes, while it's still too early to gauge its long term success, it's not looking good if you're a stockholder like I am.

 

[TheUnknownForce]

Nope, definitely not and the stockholders as well, as they're dumping the stock. In a little over a month and a half, the stock has lost 25% of its value and in Japan right now, it's down again. Investors are definitely concerned about the sales. Yes, while it's still too early to gauge its long term success, it's not looking good if you're a stockholder like I am.

Well, I would expect a large stock drop after the disaster forced Nintendo to ultimately suspend marketing for a few weeks and delay a number of releases in the process. Never mind that The Last Story didn't exceed expectations and the PSP has become very popular.

They are in a downturn cycle right now, for sure. The stock should rebound a bit by next year, considering what they are releasing for 3DS in the next fiscal year.

 

[nextgeneration]

Well, I would expect a large stock drop after the disaster forced Nintendo to ultimately suspend marketing for a few weeks and delay a number of releases in the process. Never mind that The Last Story didn't exceed expectations and the PSP has become very popular.

They are in a downturn cycle right now, for sure. The stock should rebound a bit by next year, considering what they are releasing for 3DS in the next fiscal year.

True, but during the same time, Nikkei has performed much better, so Nintendo is underperforming the Nikkei right now.

 

[antonz]

True, but during the same time, Nikkei has performed much better, so Nintendo is underperforming the Nikkei right now.

Most Electronics companies are currently down heavily too since the Earthquake and subsequent issues. Sonys stock follows almost the exact same downcurve that Nintendos has for instance.

 

[gkryhewy]

Nope, definitely not and the stockholders as well, as they're dumping the stock. In a little over a month and a half, the stock has lost 25% of its value and in Japan right now, it's down again. Investors are definitely concerned about the sales. Yes, while it's still too early to gauge its long term success, it's not looking good if you're a stockholder like I am.

Given the minimum investment for Nintendo stock ownership in Japan (I think it's about $6,000 USD), I'm always surprised by the volatility in the share price and the degree to which investors are willing to flee from a company with so much cash in the bank. It's odd.

 

[nextgeneration]

Most Electronics companies are currently down heavily too since the Earthquake and subsequent issues. Sonys stock follows almost the exact same downcurve that Nintendos has for instance.

Yeah, true. I'm just a little over-sensitive right now, as I have a lot riding on Nintendo stock. Too much, in fact. In retrospect, I never should have put so much into one stock. Oh well, live and learn.

 

[TheUnknownForce]

Most Electronics companies are currently down heavily too since the Earthquake and subsequent issues. Sonys stock follows almost the exact same downcurve that Nintendos has for instance.

Exactly. Yes, Nintendo has flubbed a bit with the 3DS launch in Japan with no major release, but the most recent downturn of stock is most certainly the result of the Earthquake.

Now, the drop in stock that will happen in the next couple weeks will most likely be the result of their lowered Wii sales worldwide and 3DS stumbling at launch, at least in Japan anyways. Thankfully, Nintendo has big games coming for the 3DS in the next few months, so that should help, but until more software keeps coming from developers, it is better to get a PSP or DS right now.

Yeah, true. I'm just a little over-sensitive right now, as I have a lot riding on Nintendo stock. Too much, in fact. In retrospect, I never should have put so much into one stock. Oh well, live and learn.

Your oversensitivity is probably why people are selling their stock, too. People are concerned that they have been hit financially by it, particularly in sales. I definitely say stick with the stock, as the stock will go up as bigger games come out. It is just a matter of when.

 

[nextgeneration]

Given the minimum investment for Nintendo stock ownership in Japan (I think it's about $6,000 USD), I'm always surprised by the volatility in the share price and the degree to which investors are willing to flee from a company with so much cash in the bank. It's odd.

Yeah, this is one thing I've never understood. Nintendo is one of the most financially sound companies in the world, but yet, I don't get why there is so much volatility in its stock. Oh well, I'm sort of straying off topic, so let's see what happens to 3ds sales next week. For my sanity, I hope there's some sort of uptick in sales sometime soon. *crosses fingers*

 

[TheUnknownForce]

Yeah, this is one thing I've never understood. Nintendo is one of the most financially sound companies in the world, but yet, I don't get why there is so much volatility in it. Oh well, I'm sort of straying off topic, so let's see what happens to 3ds sales next week. For my sanity, I hope there's some sort of uptick in sales sometime soon. *crosses fingers*

I don't expect 3DS to increase much until a big game comes out. Stabilize? Yes. Increase? Not for a few more weeks at least.

 

[nextgeneration]

I don't expect 3DS to increase much until a big game comes out. Stabilize? Yes. Increase? Not for a few more weeks at least.

Yeah, probably not going to happen, I agree. I just hope it stabilizes soon. Seeing it drop week after week is not good.

 

[TheUnknownForce]

Yeah, probably not going to happen, I agree. I just hope it stabilizes soon. Seeing it drop week after week is not good.

I personally feel that it will get better once Zelda comes out. The 3DS just needs one well-known Nintendo franchise to start getting people back to spending.

Maybe the price was just too high...how will Nintendo fix that without looking bad?