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[kswiston]

That's saying a lot, man. The last Zelda game to break 1 million in Japan was... OoT.

Well, it has the benefit of being a launch window title on a system hurting for software. Also, the last two portable Zelda's weren't that far away from 1 million. 900k and 725k respectively. There is a market for Zelda, and this is a remake of what is generally considered the best in the series.

If it doesn't hit 1M, I still think 500k is locked. The Super Mario 64DS port hit 1.1M compared to 1.6M for the original title. Ports/Remakes can sell big numbers. And compared to other games that are near release, I think OOT has the best chance of being a big seller.

 

[sphinx]

OOT will sell a lot better than Mercenaries and a Tales of the Abyss port. TotA will be a big success if it hits 300K. Not sure about mercenaries, but even if it is well done, I can't see it getting much higher. I think OOT is a lock for 500k, and 1M is not unthinkable.

This is a PORT/REMAKE of an existing game. A game everybody who cared about the series has played to death, a game that everybody who didn't care about the series won't buy or play at any point in time.

combined with the small userbase, the apparent lack of new content and a compelling reason to double/triple dip and OOT 3DS will be lucky to reach 200k.

 

[Effect]

In Japan handheld games outsell console titles all the time.

Handheld games sales > console games sales in Japan.

Gotcha. Thanks.

 

[Father_Brain]

This is a PORT/REMAKE of an existing game. A game everybody who cared about the series has played to death, a game that everybody who didn't care about the series won't buy or play at any point in time.

combined with the small userbase, the apparent lack of new content and a compelling reason to double/triple dip and OOT 3DS will be lucky to reach 200k.

You could say (mostly) the same things about Mario 64 DS, yet that sold over 1.1 million in Japan. Seriously, do you actually think OoT 3D would be "lucky" to sell just over a third of what Spirit Tracks did?

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

I just figured they wanted to give Rumble more space, but it has been awhile. Weren't there some European trademarks or something last year that hinted at localization? I just can't imagine NOA skipping out on a Pokemon release, haven't we gotten everything since TCG2?

Yes we have. I have trouble believing it myself, it's just simply baffling that they'd pass on PKMD3 considering that the series has outsold all other Pokemon spinoffs and they've been happy to localise everything else.

I do think it's been too long though. Typical, the one Wii Ware game I want the most and they skip it...

 

[Dedication Through Light]

How much exactly do people expect Star Fox and Kid Icarus to sell? Maybe I am wrong, but both strike me as the kind of titles that should be happy selling 200-300k LTD.

The Zelda:OOT remake could be a million seller though. Not enough to life the 3DS to peak DS levels, but definitely better than what we have now. As for third parties, I suspect many of the larger franchises will wait a year or two until the 3DS has a decent userbase. I know the Layton series has been on decline, but dropping from Layton 4's 650k to an eventual 350-400k for Layton 5 is pretty major.

OOT will sell a lot better than Mercenaries and a Tales of the Abyss port. TotA will be a big success if it hits 300K. Not sure about mercenaries, but even if it is well done, I can't see it getting much higher. I think OOT is a lock for 500k, and 1M is not unthinkable.

As much as people try to insinuate otherwise, I think it is clear that a large portion of people buy Nintendo systems primarily for Nintendo games. Right now there is no reason for that crowd to own a 3DS.

I do not think remakes (Star Fox, OoT, ToTA) nor a revival of an old franchise, Kid Icarus, would be the titles people should be looking at to move and spark hardware sales increases nor high software sales. I think I will side with the Mario Kart (even though on two systems, hardware sales were great, and on two systems hardware sells were lacking) and people mentioned Animal Crossing (but has been on hardware once again with mixed performance too).

Will the people who bought the DS for Nintendo games really all flock to those Nintendo titles and even buy a system for them...

 

[Effect]

Perhaps they might not move systems but they would get those that have them buying more. That's just as important I would think.

 

[Brazil]

I do not think remakes (Star Fox, OoT, ToTA) nor a revival of an old franchise, Kid Icarus, would be the titles people should be looking at to move and spark hardware sales increases nor high software sales. I think I will side with the Mario Kart (even though on two systems, hardware sales were great, and on two systems hardware sells were lacking) and people mentioned Animal Crossing (but has been on hardware once again with mixed performance too).

Will the people who bought the DS for Nintendo games really all flock to those Nintendo titles and even buy a system for them...

I think that if Nintendo is only betting on reused DS ideas to make a success out of the 3DS, they'll be very disappointed. They need new ideas, like the dozens they had with the DS.

Hell, even New Super Mario Bros. was a "new idea" in a way.

 

[gkryhewy]

Indeed I think that the impact of 3DS and Wii performance on the stock price will be seen only when they announce their fiscal results for the quarter and the forecast for the next fiscal year.

Maybe. To some extent it's already priced in via analyst price targets (i.e., analysts already expect forecasts to be missed, and have adjusted their price targets accordingly, which in turn has already impacted the share price).

 

[sphinx]

You could say (mostly) the same things about Mario 64 DS, yet that sold over 1.1 million in Japan. Seriously, do you actually think OoT 3D would be "lucky" to sell just over a third of what Spirit Tracks did?

apples to oranges.

Mario's biggest game in the series has sold like 5 or 6 millions and is pretty casual and user friendly. Zelda's is for most people just a nice but complicated adventure and the games in the series haven't sold anywhere near those in the Mario series.

besides, there are 3 reasons why I think Oot3ds will not get near spirit tracks in sales in Japan

.- the massive userbase the DS had when ST arrived.
.- ST was an all new adventure when it was released.
.- ST had a million selling prequel (PH) that people liked.

Oot has none of that so yeah, OOT3ds should sell much less than ST going by my logic.

 

[added_time]

I think that if Nintendo is only betting on reused DS ideas to make a success out of the 3DS, they'll be very disappointed. They need new ideas, like the dozens they had with the DS.

Hell, even New Super Mario Bros. was a "new idea" in a way.

Nintendo has lots of big ideas coming! Like "NEWER Super Mario Bros."

To be serious though, I remember being floored by Nintendo's originality when they announced the DS and then the Wii. As you mentioned, they also brought new types of games out of nowhere.

Seeing the coasting they are doing now and the way the 3DS looks so similar to a DS and has an announced library mostly consisting of remakes and sequels, I can't help but feel surprised and let down.
I hope they have big announcements soon (not only of established franchises.. but of the type of new and exciting game ideas that made them so successful in recent years)

 

[Lord_Byron28]

apples to oranges.

Mario's biggest game in the series has sold like 5 or 6 millions and is pretty casual and user friendly. Zelda's is for most people just a nice but complicated adventure and the games in the series haven't sold anywhere near those in the Mario series.

besides, there are 3 reasons why I think Oot3ds will not get near spirit tracks in sales in Japan

.- the massive userbase the DS had when ST arrived.
.- ST was an all new adventure when it was released.
.- ST had a million selling prequel (PH) that people liked.

Oot has none of that so yeah, OOT3ds should sell much less than ST going by my logic.

Super Mario 64 was a highly regarded game in Japan and is considered one of the best games. SM64DS was really the only core Nintendo game available for a couple months and sold 1.1 million outselling all other 3D Mario games except for the original version. Comparing 3D Mario to 2D Mario is an apples to oranges comparison as well. OoT is highly regarded and is the best selling Zelda title in Japan. It will be the first core Nintendo game and will likely remain that way for a few months. OoT is also one of the few Zelda titles to break a million. While I'm not expecting it to have 1 million sales, you're overlooking a lot of factors when you estimated lucky to break 200k.

 

[gkryhewy]

Super Mario 64 was a highly regarded game in Japan and is considered one of the best games. SM64DS was really the only core Nintendo game available for a couple months and sold 1.1 million outselling all other 3D Mario games except for the original version. Comparing 3D Mario to 2D Mario is an apples to oranges comparison as well. OoT is highly regarded and is the best selling Zelda title in Japan. It will be the first core Nintendo game and will likely remain that way for a few months. OoT is also one of the few Zelda titles to break a million. While I'm not expecting it to have 1 million sales, you're overlooking a lot of factors when you estimated lucky to break 200k.

OOT 3D did also have the longest queues by far (IIRC) at the 3DS preview events Nintendo held in Japan.

 

[wrowa]

You could say (mostly) the same things about Mario 64 DS, yet that sold over 1.1 million in Japan. Seriously, do you actually think OoT 3D would be "lucky" to sell just over a third of what Spirit Tracks did?

To be fair, Mario 64 didn't get a single port or remake until the DS version. OoT on the other hand was given away for free two times on the GameCube, and it was sold digitally on the Wii. OoT 3DS will be the fourth time they release the classic again and apparently without further additions in content.

I do believe that it will sell better than 200k, but considering the small userbase of the 3DS and the amount of times OoT was released already, it wouldn't surprise me at all if OoT3D sells far less than the DS predecessors.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Handheld games sales > console games sales in Japan.

Consoles still have higher attach rates overall though.

 

[Brazil]

Consoles still have higher attach rates overall though.

Well, I have 2 PS3s in my house and 6 DS family handhelds, and about the same number of PS3 and DS games. That's possibly an example of what happens in Japan.

 

[kswiston]

Tactics Ogre (PSP) sold about as well as previous new games in the series (Tactics Ogre GBA and Ogre Battle 64), despite having been ported to the Saturn/PS1 and having been available on Virtual Console for over a year. Granted that had a lot of reworked content/gameplay mechanics, but I think that the visual overhaul will go a long way towards enticing people to pick up OOT 3DS.

 

[jj984jj]

Consoles still have higher attach rates overall though.

Considering there is over a 5 million gap between Wii and PSP alone, what does that really tell us?

 

[kswiston]

Considering there is over a 5 million gap between Wii and PSP alone, what does that really tell us?

What are the attach rates for current gen consoles/handhelds in Japan? Anyone have even rough numbers?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Tactics Ogre (PSP) sold about as well as previous new games in the series (Tactics Ogre GBA and Ogre Battle 64), despite having been ported to the Saturn/PS1 and having been available on Virtual Console for over a year. Granted that had a lot of reworked content/gameplay mechanics, but I think that the visual overhaul will go a long way towards enticing people to pick up OOT 3DS.

It also sold about half what TO did on SFC, which would be pretty decent for OOT 3D, and very much inline with TP and ST.

 

[Brazil]

Considering there is over a 5 million gap between Wii and PSP alone, what does that really tell us?

Absolutely nothing. Attach rates are related to the proportion between hardware and software sold, not to hardware numbers alone. Saying "there are more PSPs sold than Wii, therefore the Wii has a higher attach rate" doesn't even make sense. There isn't a fixed software sales number for every platform.

If only a single Wii was sold in Japan and the attach rate was higher than the DS with millions sold, it still wouldn't tell us anything.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Considering there is over a 5 million gap between Wii and PSP alone, what does that really tell us?

Last I saw, Wii had sold about as much software overall as PSP in Japan, despite the hardware gap.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Tactics Ogre (PSP) sold about as well as previous new games in the series (Tactics Ogre GBA and Ogre Battle 64), despite having been ported to the Saturn/PS1 and having been available on Virtual Console for over a year. Granted that had a lot of reworked content/gameplay mechanics, but I think that the visual overhaul will go a long way towards enticing people to pick up OOT 3DS.

What visual overhaul. I thought it was a port, not a remake.

 

[BowieZ]

That is a laughably easy statement to disprove in this particular context, given how severely Nintendo is going to miss their quarterly targets on the system and how angry their shareholders are going to be about it.

Will happily eat crow in January.

 

[Stumpokapow]

That website posts scans and stuff, is it ok to link it? Or have they stopped?

- King Zell runs true-gaming or is a staff member

- It's okay to post links to sites that otherwise host scans, but not links to an article that contains scans. For reference, Joystiq (owned by AOL) has posted scans many times. We're smart enough to analyze intent. If someone is saying "hey guys there are scans out, by the way check out this website *wink wink*" that'd probably not be okay, but I have no problem with him linking to his site for this very useful feature he does every week, totally separate from anything else the site may or may not do.

 

[kswiston]

What visual overhaul. I thought it was a port, not a remake.

It's not on the level of REmake, but the graphics have been touched up/redone.

http://www.zeldauniverse.net/zelda-news/ocarina-of-time-3dsn64-video-comparison/

 

[wrowa]

Tactics Ogre (PSP) sold about as well as previous new games in the series (Tactics Ogre GBA and Ogre Battle 64), despite having been ported to the Saturn/PS1 and having been available on Virtual Console for over a year. Granted that had a lot of reworked content/gameplay mechanics, but I think that the visual overhaul will go a long way towards enticing people to pick up OOT 3DS.

While the visual overhaul is definitely noticeable, people even argue on one of the nerdiest forums on the internet - aka NeoGAF - whether or not OoT3D looks much better than the original. Looking at the different OoT3D threads, statements like "it looks like an N64 game" aren't rare.

Yes, these statements are factually wrong. But if even some nerds don't notice the difference, can one expect the wider public to notice?

 

[charlequin]

Will happily eat crow in January.

What are you talking about? You are already wrong. This isn't a question of waiting for January. Yes, the 3DS may well be in anywhere from decent to fantastic shape in January; that's irrelevant to the question of whether they fucked up the lauch, a question that is no longer in debate.

A question that might be asked is did Nintendo make a mistake by leaving the software field open to 3rd parties in regard to the Nintendo 3DS's launch?

Absolutely. Leaving space is a poor idea of what it takes to get third-parties on board (they didn't do that with the DS until several years into the system's life) and it's worsened when you don't do the things that are actually important to third-parties, like give them early development kits and work with them to create desirable exclusive titles that you promise to heavily market during the early adoption window.

I do not think remakes (Star Fox, OoT, ToTA) nor a revival of an old franchise, Kid Icarus, would be the titles people should be looking at to move and spark hardware sales increases nor high software sales.

Well, at launch, people are much more accepting of things that, judged honestly in the cold light of day, aren't worth the money. As SM64DS shows us, a bare-bones port of a popular old game can do very well at launch and help prop up hardware a bit until "real" software shows up. I'd go out on a limb and say that OOT is a more beloved title than SM64, and that the port has a lot more value in this case; a launch with that and Kid Icarus bolted on would've done notably better, IMO.

 

[lwilliams3]

A question that might be asked is did Nintendo make a mistake by leaving the software field open to 3rd parties in regard to the Nintendo 3DS's launch? Would things have been better had they came out swinging at full power?

I think the situation in Japan would have caused them some trouble as that wasn't to be expected but I think things overall would be better for them. Is it wrong to assume that Zelda 64, Starfox 64, and Kid Icarus are all done and were done in time for launch?

I think it would have been better in the short-run, but I don't think it will effect them in the long run as long as Nintendo began to release their bigger titles soon. Due to the earthquake, Japan will be hindered for awhile either way, though.

 

[BowieZ]

What are you talking about? You are already wrong. This isn't a question of waiting for January. Yes, the 3DS may well be in anywhere from decent to fantastic shape in January; that's irrelevant to the question of whether they fucked up the lauch, a question that is no longer in debate.

Well, they could be in fantastic shape in January, or they could be in fantastic shape in January with third parties enthusiastically on board.

Everyone here is bitching how there wasn't a big Nintendo title at launch like that was a mistake...?

 

[kswiston]

Everyone here is bitching how there wasn't a big Nintendo title at launch like that was a mistake...?

How was it not a mistake? When you are a developer of over half of the top 10 best-selling game series in Japan, you should probably release an entry for at least one of those when launching a new system. Having something like Mario Kart 3DS available at launch wouldn't have crowded out third parties, but it would have sold systems beyond those first 2-3 weeks.

 

[FoneBone]

give them early development kits and work with them to create desirable exclusive titles that you promise to heavily market during the early adoption window.

To be fair, they do seem to have done this with Street Fighter. Other games, probably not so much.

 

[onipex]

As I said, altho Nintendo operates on a global scale, Japan is very important to them. If Wii would tank in US AND Europe, it'll be whatever, but if things are looking bad in Japan, it's fucking go time!

I don't know about this. Nintendo could have done a lot more in Japan to try and keep Wii sales up. It seems to me that it just didn't matter much to them. Maybe they felt like since the DS was killing and PS3 was far behind there was not any need to go all out.

There could have been more console bundles. I think Monster Hunter only had a controller bundle. They could have kept the Mario bundle going longer. They are also taking way to long to get the dance out in Japan. I'm not sure those games will help sales at all , but at this point they can't hurt.

That's my beef as well. They gave the games too much credit when they probably shouldn't have. Just a semi-poorly conceived launch. I don't think it's as bad as some people seem to think but it's a lesson learned.

I think they figure that since the DS had a slow start due to no killer apps that the 3DS will be fine with just the third party software until later in the year. Nintendo will at least try to have more heavy hitters out in the first year. If they just try to rely on DS sequels I doubt the 3DS will have a huge take off like the DS did though. I'm not saying that sales will not pick up a lot when Mario Kart and the other Nintendo staples come out. I just think Nintendo needs a new brain age and Nintendogs type game instead of just releasing follow ups to those games.

 

[wrowa]

Well, they could be in fantastic shape in January, or they could be in fantastic shape in January with third parties enthusiastically on board.

Everyone here is bitching how there wasn't a big Nintendo title at launch like that was a mistake...?

The 3DS is selling below Nintendo's expectations. This is bad for 3rd parties, since it means that the amount of potential customers of 3DS games is smaller than anticipated. The logical consequence: lower sales.

Honestly, I can't understand why anyone would think the current situation is good for anyone. There aren't even many or any 3rd party games on the horizon that could profit from the lack of Nintendo big-sellers.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

To be fair, they do seem to have done this with Street Fighter. Other games, probably not so much.

They're also doing it for DOA, which is getting some 1st party IP lent for it. I suspect Nintendo will also being doing the honors for Pirate Slime in the west and probably more Capcom games in Euope. They might help out Level 5 in the west too.

Also, I thought 3rd parties started getting kits a full year before launch? How much earlier should they have gotten them? How early did devs get PSP, 360 or Ps3 kits before launch?

 

[sphinx]

The 3DS is selling below Nintendo's expectations. This is bad for 3rd parties, since it means that the amount of potential customers of 3DS games is smaller than anticipated. The logical consequence: lower sales.

Honestly, I can't understand why anyone would think the current situation is good for anyone. There aren't even many or any 3rd party games on the horizon that could profit from the lack of Nintendo big-sellers.

My guess is that some people think that the lack of nintendo first party games leaves the door open for 3rd parties to release the defining software for the platform, instead of having the hardware being bought solely for the 1st party games like it has always been with nintendo.

the logic here is, nintendo waits, 3rd parties release the awesome software, said 3rd party software is so good and constant that they build up on their own a never before seen sequence of system selling software that defines the hardware..

so instead of having a "Nintendogs - Brain Age - Animal Crossing - NSMB - Pokemon" combo, we have a "Resident evil - Metal Gear - Kingdom Hearts - Final Fantasy - Dragon Quest " combo that defines the hardware.

don't ask me if that's going to work, though!

 

[BowieZ]

The 3DS is selling below Nintendo's expectations. This is bad for 3rd parties, since it means that the amount of potential customers of 3DS games is smaller than anticipated. The logical consequence: lower sales.

Honestly, I can't understand why anyone would think the current situation is good for anyone. There aren't even many or any 3rd party games on the horizon that could profit from the lack of Nintendo big-sellers.

Everyone here has acknowledged that come Holiday Season, 3DS says will start to shoot through the roof.

So sales -- period -- aren't an issue. People seem to be concerned over a slow 10 month opening. Firstly, ignoring the first couple holiday months for the original DS, that system experienced comparable sales.

Obviously, as we already knew, Nintendo has gone to great lengths to secure lots of third party titles for their new system (before sales were worrying) and presumably told third parties that they would -- for the first time -- be a priority in the first 10 months of launch (possibly upon their request).

So yes, third party games would probably still 'sell' had Mario Kart 3DS been a launch game, but the disparity between the two would have been clear as day and bleak as all hell.

I would say Nintendo has carefully weighed which is the lesser of two evils: lack of shareholder confidence or lack of third party confidence.

But, hey, sure, Ninty done bad, total mistake.

My guess is that some people think that the lack of nintendo first party games leaves the door open for 3rd parties to release the defining software for the platform

Bingo.

Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition,Capcom Japan recently revealed that they have shipped 1 million copies of the game worldwide.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/sf4/3DS/index.html

Double-bingo.

Maybe I'm being biased here because I wouldn't have bought Street Fighter had a Mario game been launched.

 

[king zell]

Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition,Capcom Japan recently revealed that they have shipped 1 million copies of the game worldwide.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/sf4/3DS/index.html

 

[onipex]

Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition,Capcom Japan recently revealed that they have shipped 1 million copies of the game worldwide.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/sf4/3DS/index.html

Even for shipped numbers I didn't expect that much this soon.

edit:

My guess is that some people think that the lack of nintendo first party games leaves the door open for 3rd parties to release the defining software for the platform, instead of having the hardware being bought solely for the 1st party games like it has always been with nintendo.

the logic here is, nintendo waits, 3rd parties release the awesome software, said 3rd party software is so good and constant that they build up on their own a never before seen sequence of system selling software that defines the hardware..

so instead of having a "Nintendogs - Brain Age - Animal Crossing - NSMB - Pokemon" combo, we have a "Resident evil - Metal Gear - Kingdom Hearts - Final Fantasy - Dragon Quest " combo that defines the hardware.

don't ask me if that's going to work, though!

See I think the problem is no matter how those games sell Nintendo software will still define the console. If Resident Evil sales 5 million it will be pointed out in every single write up of software sales that NSMB 3DS sold 20 million , and the conclusion will still be that third parties can't compete with Nintendo.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Really? 1 million shipped WW sounds about Right for a SF game at launch, cOnsiderng it's the highest profile game available.

 

[apana]

Even for shipped numbers I didn't expect that much this soon.

edit:



See I think the problem is no matter how those games sell Nintendo software will still define the console. If Resident Evil sales 5 million it will be pointed out in every single write up of software sales that NSMB 3DS sold 20 million , and the conclusion will still be that third parties can't compete with Nintendo.

What is this "compete" bullshit about? If they are meeting their sales target then why would they care how much NSMB 3DS sells? Nintendo doesn't make games similar to the third party games so there isn't much competition.

 

[outunderthestars]

Holy crap! How long has the Wii been selling so poorly in Japan?

 

[Seda]

Lol at my fail thread. I've never stepped in here before.

Basically the 3DS's lack of momentum in Japan troubles me. Well, not personally, but you know what I mean.

 

[outunderthestars]

Lol at my fail thread. I've never stepped in here before.

Basically the 3DS's lack of momentum in Japan troubles me. Well, not personally, but you know what I mean.

The DS wasn't a huge success right of the gates as well. With quality software the system will take off.

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

Holy crap! How long has the Wii been selling so poorly in Japan?

Since games stopped getting released.

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition,Capcom Japan recently revealed that they have shipped 1 million copies of the game worldwide.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/sf4/3DS/index.html

Opened my appetite for more fighting games in the third dimension give me Dead or Alive already Tecmo

 

[king zell]

did capcom had any million shaped game for the DS?

 

[Freezie KO]

Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition,Capcom Japan recently revealed that they have shipped 1 million copies of the game worldwide.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/sf4/3DS/index.html

Ryu Hadouken rail-shooter incoming.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

did capcom had any million shaped game for the DS?

Nope and none for PSP besides MHP1-3. Their one GBA million shipper was Megaman Battle Network 4, and they never managed a million on GB/GBC.

 

[HaRyu]

The DS wasn't a huge success right of the gates as well. With quality software the system will take off.

Everyone keeps saying that. When exactly did the quality, "itprintzmoney" DS games kick in, and how long was the initial glut for the DS?