ShockingAlberto
Member
Capcom also made a big show of publicly cancelling one of their first generation 3DS titles.
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Media Create Sales: Week 13, 2013 (Mar 25 - Mar 31)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
ShockingAlberto
Member
Yeah.
It would have been one thing to just quietly let it die and stop work on it and people would have forgotten over the years. But they went out and announced work had stopped and they never even really greenlit it at a time where compelling 3DS software was few and far between and people were dying for that demo.
Was it a big show or did fans make it a big show? At any rate, while it's certainly a thing that happened, I don't think they expected a severe backlash to it. I wouldn't be surprised if Inafune was the only reason it was started in the first place and the rest of the senior management considered it a waste of money.
I'm guessing it was because of the community involvement is why they announced it. They had fans design that girl character. And Megaman in general was dying at around that point. That whole Megaman Universe thing got canned around that time too I believe.
Sammy Samusu
Member
If 3G failed to sell more than 3... lulz. Not a good comparison, dear Jonnyram.
And 2nd was the beginning of the MH explosion, when they released 2nd G people were ready to try it out (see legs and Best Price huge sales).
3G is a really poor expansion if you have already played MHP3, and most gamers in Japan did. Imagine 3G on PSP, do you think it would have sold 4/5M? 3G is basically the 3DS version of P3.
Here in the west 3G is a great game because it has MHP3 and MHP2G monsters, many of us started playing MH with MH3, so even Nargacuga, Plesioth and subspecies are considered new.
I think 3G was designed, in some ways, for the western market. We know the Target Camera feature was created to cater to gaijins' needs, we also know Capcom US have been working on 3G for a long time, and let's not forget Nintendo's evil schemes when it comes to betrayalton deals.
4 is a completely new game with new weapons, monsters, maps, missions etc. It's a fresh title so it should sell much more than 3G.
Phew, I hate writing essays. Especially when we are obviously going nowhere, lol.
BishopLamont
Banned
lol...MH3G alone did 2M and you expect MH4 - the full blown sequel only doing half a mil more? The game will do that first week alone. Your sony goggles are really dinted aren't they.
StreetsAhead
Member
I think Pokemon X&Y will have a combined LTD of 500K.
Am I doing it right?
Am I doing it right?
Well they lost a life long fan over that one. I only get their stuff if I know it won't give them money, and if it costs them money (somehow) all the better.
metalslimer
Member
You expect that after the abysmal Mystery Dungeon sales? 300k max
StreetsAhead
Member
Well, Rumble did well didn't it? I think 500K is possible. So many series have collapsed in popularity on 3DS. Hard to predict. 400K might be the safest guess.
Also, another incoming Bomba (maybe 50K), Tomodachi Collection's HP updated. You'll be able to send your kids 'on a trip' once they grow up and they'll be sent via Street Pass to different villages.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/3ds/ec6j/tabidachi/index.html
It's not just first-party series, either. Rune Factory, Etrian Odyssey, and Harvest Moon have all hit their personal series high. Still, I'd be shocked if it did more than the original.
If it were to do that, we'd be reaching 2005-6 DS levels of crazyness with four 4+ million sellers in one year (Animal Crossing, Tomadachi Collection, Pokemon, and Monster Hunter).
airmangataosenai
Member
MH3G did nowhere near 2 million on it's own. It did around or maybe a little over 1.5 million before it's budget re-release (To say nothing of discounted sales for the original version several months into 2012 to get it to even that number), and even getting that far was a long, slow crawl. Jonnyram therefore has MH4 expanding on MH3G's overall sales by a full million either before or after the budget release which is pretty reasonable/generous really.
It took over a month to reach over 1 million, the slowest entry in the series to reach that goal in something like 5 years. People have a million excuses for why 3G performed as middling as it did but it's hard not to see the results as disappointing.
But Senran Kagura is proof that these 3rd party games would all sell best on Vita :U
1 Vita owner = 3 3DS owners
Except that Capcom expected 1.2M for the FY, and ended up shipping 1M within the first 10 days, and 1.6M for the FY. I'm sure they were just crying in their soup that they beat their expectations by nearly half a million. Companies are always so disappointed when that happens.
metalslimer
Member
Except for the only expectations that matter. Oh a full million, I'm so glad Johnny decided to be so generous
airmangataosenai
Member
Yep, same way Tri for Wii was a huge success. So huge they never even bothered re-releasing the game after the initial shipment, but it hit that sales forecast!
Actually, IIRC, the Tri forecast was for 1.5M in Japan, and 500k overseas. They ended up with 1.1M in Japan, and 800k overseas. So they fell short in Japan, and overperformed in the west. Ended up pretty much spot on with their total worldwide forecast.
Want to try again?
metalslimer
Member
The revisionist history right here is a bit much. Tri took a long time and many price collapses to even come close to expectations and it never even did so drop that comparison, even DCCharlie will admit Tri G was a big success at this point.
I can't really find a correlation as to why these particular series are doing so well. Perhaps TC will say GTFO and dominate everything, but I'm unsure. Is a 6.5+ million userbase increase realistic for the 3DS this year?
Too bad we can't get DCharlie's prediction on MH4. His 3G stuff made for entertaining threads.
Sure, you can make the excuse that there were other games that sold better than Gotcha Force. But a reasonable person would completely ignore the context of other games existing, so it's actually the best selling game of all time!
airmangataosenai
Member
Revisionism, not so much. Go back to the threads from back when the game launched and look at the language used by people in Sales-Age to describe Tri at the time. It's very similar reasoning. I remember posters here clinging to some quote from a Capcom exec that the Wii game "Met expectations" for the longest time despite how dire 2009 was for Capcom as a company.
Go ahead and look at the 2009-era sales threads here, it's pretty eye opening.
A lower price many months after release? Unheard of.
Not "on its own" ? - what is that even supposed to mean ?
Discounted sales months after release? So not like any other third party game then. 2 million including a budget release on a platform barely a year old at the time of launch is more than Capcom (or the majority of posters here) expected, so I'm not sure where 'disappointment' comes in.
I'm also not really sure that either user base or it being the first release on a new platform limiting sales compared to an established and nurtured fanbase on PSP is an 'excuse' rather than a fact. You really have to try hard to see 2m sales after switching exclusively to a brand new platform as disappointing.
Naw, there's no need. When you're ultimately wrong, the thrashing will prove to have been self-afflicted.
BishopLamont
Banned
Jokes aside, of all games to lowball, its gonna be MH? Seriously.
About the whole budget thing, thats so unlike previous MHs/games right?
First of all Capcom expected 1.2, its gonna end up doin nearly 2M. It was a slow crawl? Of course it was, the 3DS install base wasn't that big and its the first time its appeared on a Nintendo handheld, I'm not sure exactly what you expected but its unrealistic whatever it is.
About the whole budget thing, thats so unlike previous MHs/games right?
You mean first week, right?
voluntary perma
Yeah, it's too bad. I thought he was a good addition to the threads. No system bias - the guy loved games from every system - he gave lots of first-hand impressions from his area. Even with his crazy "MH3G" is gonna flop hard prediction, he answered people's questions about it and explained his flawed reasoning for it - and then laughed about it afterwards when it was clear he was wrong.
BishopLamont
Banned
I love games from every console too, that doesn't mean I don't have a bias, it was clear he did too. He was just stubborn about it, I'll give him that.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I am going to predict 3 million minimum and 4 million maximum.
Get your facts right. They predicted 1.2M by March 31 2012, the end of FY2011. Actual sales were 1.3M.
When Monster Hunter 4 was originally planned for release March this year, they had predicted 2M sales by March 31 2013, the end of FY2012.
Well, I shouldn't speak with any certainty on the issue, because I didn't know him personally. But I never got the impression that he had any bias. He seemed awfully gung-ho about Vita games, 3DS games, what have you.
We went through this with you before back in December (maybe early Janurary) - so I'm not sure why you're still misunderstanding this (unless it's deliberate, which I hope its not). Their expectations that they give in financial reports are for shipped units - not sell-through. They actually shipped 1.6M units as of Mar 31. They expected to ship 1.2M as of that date.
Furthering the data - they shipped 1M within 10 days of release. They reached their goal of 1.2M shipped three months early on Dec 31. And they finished the FY with 1.6M shipped on Mar 31.
BishopLamont
Banned
You mean they revised their prediction after it over performed?
BishopLamont
Banned
Good IMO, we've had many big games sell well in the same year on the same console, there's no reason why one would eat the other.
Yes, graphics aren't the only reason but they're one of the reasons. The other reasons are also somewhat connected as they benefit from good graphics. It is also still part of the brand strength of FF even if its positive effect is only apparent when you compare the time frame where you have other examples, i.e. FF with ordinary graphics. Saying it is 'just' the brand strength doesn't refute the fact that graphics play a role in the success of that game. Graphics cannot be divorced from its brand strength, only their importance be relativated.
My starting point was graphics aren't everything but they're not unimportant either. High selling games on PS3 also being graphical showcases indicates the importance publishers put on graphics. The success of these games also somewhat validates this approach even though it doesn't in any way prove that graphics really sell a game. I'd say market research would be more suited to speak on that matter.
You pointed out a technicality (nothing coming close to FF's brand strength on PS3). In elaborating on the circumstance of that technicality, we find that all the other high selling games on PS3 also follow this pattern. I mentioned two: best selling old IP, best selling new IP. We can add best selling old Capcom IP, best selling old Namco IP, best selling old Konami IP, best selling old Sega IP. They all fit the pattern. The technicality you pointed out does nothing to weaken my argument. And you should have known it without me adding more examples to an obvious list.
I don't know what argument I'm trying to weaken that's related to any of what you just wrote. As I've mentioned several times now, my argument was that FFXIII would have still been the best-selling game on PS3 even if they had put less focus on graphics and more focus on other elements of the game (FFXIII). If you believe that such a version of FFXIII would have sold less than 1M and not been the best-selling game on PS3 - then we disagree. But that point really has nothing at all to do with everything that you just wrote (agreement or disagreement).
AdventureRacing
Member
2-2.5 million for MH4 seems crazy to me and would be a huge bomba. Personally i think it will go past 4 million but even if it doesn't i feel extremely confident that it will comfortably outsell 2.5 million.
I'd imagine the HW sales they will be getting from having 2 titles of that scale in one year should be good for both games.
I'd imagine the HW sales they will be getting from having 2 titles of that scale in one year should be good for both games.
ULTROS!
People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
I'd like to see your line of thinking behind this.
Having realistic expectations of course! I have a feeling MHP3rd was a lightning strike for reaching more than 4m.
Other franchises have maintained multimillion sales and MH as a franchise steadily built its sales. I see 4 million for MH4 and slight gains for the remaining MH clones on PSP/Vita. I.e. MH will retain most of its audience but lose some of the more Sony oriented MH players.
There could always be a Tekken to MH's VF of course but it is hardly guaranteed.
That is likely true but hardly a fact. It is also unimportant to my post. And we will never know.
Of course it's not a fact - it never happend! That's why I said that it was my argument (or my opinion, if you will). I just find it funny that you agree that my argument is likely true, and yet we've been going back and forth about that opinion of mine for far too long now, ha ha...