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[frankie_baby]

They announced back in late July 2012 that 3DS hardware was no longer losing money. The timing of the announcement (just a few days before the XL launched in Japan and Europe, but a good month before the XL launched in NA) makes it difficult to know if they were referring to each model individually breaking even, or if the profits from the XL that would have already been shipped by that announcement were already making up for whatever small losses were still left on the original model.

But either way, the 3DS hardware has been profitable for almost a year now, so I'm guessing that the margins have started moving into a pretty decent place by now. If they really want to give the 3DS a strong push in NA and Europe this fall heading into the holiday season, I wouldn't be surprised if the margins are strong enough to allow them to drop the price to 149/179 (or maybe just $169 for the XL, with the original model phased out completely if it would be a drag on profits at $149) somewhere around the launch of Pokemon, and still keep the hardware right around break-even at that pricepoint.

seriously why would they phase out the actually portable sized version of their portable? but i'd agree they almost certainly have room to now cut the price and remain profitable

 

[serplux]

This is what I call complete and utter delusion, where one person's myopic fanboy view of a person overwrites all business reality and likely what the individual actually wants:

I hope you at least understand my reasoning behind my myopic fanboy view.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Not really related, but I thought this was interesting. They made an Iwata Asks for Fantasy Life. Maybe its success caught Nintendo's attention?

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/3ds/interview/ec6j/vol1/index.html

That's for Tomodachi Collection: New Lifestyle.

 

[Nekki]

You mean you wouldnt want to be demoted, go back to doing something you haven't done in over a decade in a field that has rapidly advanced


This empathy some people seem to have with a person they've never met or spoken to is weird

That's kind of an essential quality in public speakers. Of course he is much more than that, but it applies.

I'm too tired to make any meaningful contribution to this thread this week (if I ever do anyway).

But I have to say Luigi is amazing.

 

[ElectricKaibutsu]

Vita is supply constrained? That's strange after being out for so long.

I'm on my way to Yodobashi right now. I'll let everyone know if it's true.

 

[DaBoss]

That's for Tomodachi Collection: New Lifestyle.

Well I'm an idiot lol.

 

[Dalthien]

seriously why would they phase out the actually portable sized version of their portable? but i'd agree they almost certainly have room to now cut the price and remain profitable

I wouldn't expect them to phase it out - I just don't know how the cost difference works out between the two models. If they were able to secure some new pricing contracts (parts) with the redesigned XL, then that model may have greater profitability built in (and more flexibility with respect to price cuts).

But my expectation would be for something like 149/179.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So I've asked before, but given the biggish drop this week: Is it plausible that Vita can eke out some sort of existence for itself as the handheld port-companion to the PS3 and home to other low-/mid-tier selling titles like Muramasa? Is a platform like that something publishers even want?

 

[metalslimer]

So I've asked before, but given the biggish drop this week: Is it plausible that Vita can eke out some sort of existence for itself as the handheld port-companion to the PS3 and home to other low-/mid-tier selling titles like Muramasa? Is a platform like that something publishers even want?

I think the question should be does Sony want to continue with rather than 3rd parties. Also the ps3 will probably be the same price as vita by fall

 

[Dalthien]

So I've asked before, but given the biggish drop this week: Is it plausible that Vita can eke out some sort of existence for itself as the handheld port-companion to the PS3 and home to other low-/mid-tier selling titles like Muramasa? Is a platform like that something publishers even want?

I guess the question becomes - are the Vita ports selling to new customers, or are the Vita sales just coming at the expense of the PS3 sales? The last data that we saw seemed to show (I could be remembering wrong) that a huge percentage of Vita owners also own a PS3. So if the people buying the Vita port would have bought the PS3 version anyway - I can't imagine that being anything that the publishers are interested in.

Right now, it appears as though Sony is offering incentives for 3rd-parties to release Vita versions as well. But if those incentives stopped, would the 3rd-parties stop porting the games?

 

[serplux]

But either way, the 3DS hardware has been profitable (or at least break-even) for almost a year now, so I'm guessing that the margins have started moving into a pretty decent place by now. If they really want to give the 3DS a strong push in NA and Europe this fall heading into the holiday season, I wouldn't be surprised if the margins are strong enough to allow them to drop the price to 149/179 (or maybe just $169 for the XL, with the original model phased out completely if it would be a drag on profits at $149) somewhere around the launch of Pokemon, and still keep the hardware right around break-even at that pricepoint.

Perhaps a new 3DS model that's the same size of the original is in order? It wouldn't surprise me.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Perhaps a new 3DS model that's the same size of the original is in order? It wouldn't surprise me.

With Miiverse/account functionality.

 

[LOCK]

The 3DS decline YoY is sort of worrying.

 

[metalslimer]

The 3DS decline YoY is sort of worrying.

In what way? The 3ds is not nor ever will be the DS even with no psp.

 

[AniHawk]

The 3DS decline YoY is sort of worrying.

true, but there's still some big games left for it, especially where japan is concerned.

at its current rate, the 3ds should easily outsell the ps2 at least.

 

[serplux]

With Miiverse/account functionality.

You're a cruel, cruel man.

The 3DS decline YoY is sort of worrying.

It's got Monster Hunter and Pokemon this year. It'll be more than fine.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I guess the question becomes - are the Vita ports selling to new customers, or are the Vita sales just coming at the expense of the PS3 sales? The last data that we saw seemed to show (I could be remembering wrong) that a huge percentage of Vita owners also own a PS3. So if the people buying the Vita port would have bought the PS3 version anyway - I can't imagine that being anything that the publishers are interested in.

Right now, it appears as though Sony is offering incentives for 3rd-parties to release Vita versions as well. But if those incentives stopped, would the 3rd-parties stop porting the games?

I'm not sure, would One Piece 2 have sold an additional 85K on the PS3 by now without a Vita version? Perhaps.

I tried looking at Pro Baseball Spirits, but its difficult to draw anything from them:

PS3 	Pro Baseball 2010 	212,871
PSP 	Pro Baseball 2010 	163,620

PS3 	Pro Baseball 2011 	219,811
PSP 	Pro Baseball 2011 	182,505

PS3 	Pro Baseball 2012 	134,431
PSP 	Pro Baseball 2012 	63,272
PSV 	Pro Baseball 2012 	14,669

And so far:

PS3 	Pro Baseball 2013 	149,773
PSP 	Pro Baseball 2013 	115,883
PSV 	Pro Baseball 2013 	21,703+

I'm not sure what happened to the series last year. I haven't included the "Definitive Version" re-releases though. Doesn't seem like it shows Vita taking PS3/PSP sales?

What other examples can we draw from?

 

[StreetsAhead]

What do you all think of the likelihood that Donkey Kong Returns 3D outsells the original?

 

[zroid]

The 3DS decline YoY is sort of worrying.

YTD 1.315.259
Last YTD 1.312.560

decline? might drop under next week, but it's relatively consistent

 

[LOCK]

With DQ7r, Luigi, and AC, I figured the console would do better in the same time span compared to last year. I know it will do better across the entire year especially with MH and Pokemon coming.

Nintendo, I'm guessing, is probably not pleased with these weekly averages for the system.

 

[metalslimer]

YTD 1.315.259
Last YTD 1.312.560

decline? might drop under next week, but it's relatively consistent

I think the worry is that the 3ds is in a much stronger position and should be selling better, but honestly the 3ds had a worse holiday 2012 so its no surprise. The trinity really was a huge deal

Nintendo, I'm guessing, is probably not pleased with these weekly averages for the system.

If they're expecting the 3ds to make up for the wiiu disaster than maybe.

 

[frankie_baby]

What do you all think of the likelihood that Donkey Kong Returns 3D outsells the original?

no chance, it'll do decent numbers but wont come close, had it been a new game then probably would have had a better shot but not a port

 

[AniHawk]

What do you all think of the likelihood that Donkey Kong Returns 3D outsells the original?

pretty good. luigi's mansion 2 has a chance of hitting 1m, so i don't see why dkr3d can't.

 

[NateDrake]

I think the worry is that the 3ds is in a much stronger position and should be selling better, but honestly the 3ds had a worse holiday 2012 so its no surprise. The trinity really was a huge deal

Pokemon will ignite sales along with MH4 later this year.

 

[serplux]

What do you all think of the likelihood that Donkey Kong Returns 3D outsells the original?

*shrugs* The original needed the holidays in order to get to a million (crazy legs), but DKCR 3D won't have that luxury. So I doubt it's likely, but who knows?

 

[DaBoss]

What do you all think of the likelihood that Donkey Kong Returns 3D outsells the original?

Is there anything we can compare it to to determine whether the chance is high? Only thing I can think of right now is Muramasa, which the Vita version outsold the Wii version (not including the BEST release).

I'm not sure what its chances are.

 

[ohlawd]

*shrugs* The original needed the holidays in order to get to a million (crazy legs), but DKCR 3D won't have that luxury. So I doubt it's likely, but who knows?

okay so 2 million then.

 

[metalslimer]

What do you all think of the likelihood that Donkey Kong Returns 3D outsells the original?

0% It would be a miracle if it sells half the original, a new DKC on 3ds could have sold a lot more though.

 

[Mystic_Wanderer]

true, but there's still some big games left for it, especially where japan is concerned.

at its current rate, the 3ds should easily outsell the ps2 at least.

Easily outsell eh? Only 120 mil to go to tie it! But easily! WOW!

 

[DaBoss]

Easily outsell eh? Only 120 mil to go to tie it! But easily! WOW!

You're in a Japanese sales thread quoting someone talking about Japanese sales...

 

[ohlawd]

Easily outsell eh? Only 120 mil to go to tie it! But easily! WOW!

WOW We're in a Japanese sales thread.

WOWOW

Wooooooooooosh

and that post says "Japan" in it too. Oh mah lawd.

edit: beaten bad but hey, at least I can add more "woooooosh" to this post.

 

[metalslimer]

Easily outsell eh? Only 120 mil to go to tie it! But easily! WOW!

This is a japanese sales topic.

and that post says "Japan" in it too. Oh mah lawd.

Yeesh..

 

[Mystic_Wanderer]

I am drunk. I am ashamed. I am leaving now.

 

[DaBoss]

I am drunk. I am ashamed. I am leaving now.

:lol

No harm done.

 

[zroid]

With DQ7r, Luigi, and AC, I figured the console would do better in the same time span compared to last year. I know it will do better across the entire year especially with MH and Pokemon coming.

Nintendo, I'm guessing, is probably not pleased with these weekly averages for the system.

Maybe. Well, I don't think they expected Luigi to be huge. Big, but not at the level of, say, the trinity. Don't forget, early 2012 came hot off the heels of MH3G and MK7. SM3DL was released around the same time as AC, I believe. Those three gave 3DS a ton of footing in Q1.

Once Tomodachi comes out, we're probably going to see another big bump above 2012 numbers.

 

[ohlawd]

I am drunk. I am ashamed. I am leaving now.

dat damage control

:lol

No harm done.

You are too compassionate. It'll be the end of you.

 

[DaBoss]

dat damage control

You are too compassionate. It'll be the end of you.

That was poetry.

3-4-5

 

[Jonnyram]

So I wonder if the sizable Vita drop is due to low stock everywhere.
Nearly all models are sold out in a lot of stores, and restock is not expected until May
Even Sony's own online store is "waiting for stock".

There are a lot of games scheduled for release on 25 April, as well as a lot of budget re-releases. Rumours are suggesting something might be planned.

 

[ElectricKaibutsu]

So I wonder if the sizable Vita drop is due to low stock everywhere.
Nearly all models are sold out in a lot of stores, and restock is not expected until May
Even Sony's own online store is "waiting for stock".

There are a lot of games scheduled for release on 25 April, as well as a lot of budget re-releases. Rumours are suggesting something might be planned.

Anecdotally, I just checked the Yodobashi Camera in Shinjuku. There's one used and nine new 3G Vitas. NO Wifi models at all. Sold out signs everywhere.

 

[darkside31337]

Anecdotally, I just checked the Yodobashi Camera in Shinjuku. There's one used and nine new 3G Vitas. NO Wifi models at all. Sold out signs everywhere.

Whats the price difference between a 3G Vita and a regular Vita over there? I assume theres a significant difference like there is in the states?

I remember seeing the splits of the 3G vs wifi Vita sales from 2012 in one of the weekly threads before and the 3G number was surprisingly high since I figured it would be real close to 0 but I don't remember what the exact splits were.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Whats the price difference between a 3G Vita and a regular Vita over there? I assume theres a significant difference like there is in the states?

I remember seeing the splits of the 3G vs wifi Vita sales from 2012 in one of the weekly threads before and the 3G number was surprisingly high since I figured it would be real close to 0 but I don't remember what the exact splits were.

Since the price drop, they're the same.

no chance, it'll do decent numbers but wont come close, had it been a new game then probably would have had a better shot but not a port

*shrugs* The original needed the holidays in order to get to a million (crazy legs), but DKCR 3D won't have that luxury. So I doubt it's likely, but who knows?

Is there anything we can compare it to to determine whether the chance is high? Only thing I can think of right now is Muramasa, which the Vita version outsold the Wii version (not including the BEST release).

I'm not sure what its chances are.

0% It would be a miracle if it sells half the original, a new DKC on 3ds could have sold a lot more though.

So, a mixed bag. Will be interesting to see how it does, then.

 

[Father_Brain]

So I've asked before, but given the biggish drop this week: Is it plausible that Vita can eke out some sort of existence for itself as the handheld port-companion to the PS3 and home to other low-/mid-tier selling titles like Muramasa? Is a platform like that something publishers even want?

It's at least not impossible, which is more than can be said for any scenario in which Vita becomes a mass-market-relevant competitor to 3DS; I just doubt that retailers, investors, and Sony's BOD would all be willing to accept that as the status quo indefinitely, especially when the platform's prospects outside Japan are considerably worse.

 

[saichi]

Anecdotally, I just checked the Yodobashi Camera in Shinjuku. There's one used and nine new 3G Vitas. NO Wifi models at all. Sold out signs everywhere.

Aren't Wifi and 3G model the same price?

 

[ElectricKaibutsu]

Aren't Wifi and 3G model the same price?

Yes... hm, maybe the wifi has a smaller form factor?

 

[StreetsAhead]

Seriously, the Vita is not that 'supply constrained'. It's at Aeon, it's at Geo, it's at Yamada. You can find one if you really want, and after DS it was the system with the most second hand units at 2/3 Book Offs I checked.

If people wanted one last week, they could have got it.

 

[metalslimer]

Seriously, the Vita is not supply constrained. It's at Aeon, it's at Geo, it's at Yamada. You can find one if you really want, and after DS it was the system with the most second hand units at 2/3 Book Offs I checked.

If people wanted one last week, they could have got it.

Maybe it contributed somewhat to the drop but everything had a nice drop last week. Does someone have a link to the sold out report from Famitsu?

 

[UberTag]

I find it interesting that Japanese gamers will flock towards a Western-developed title IF it employs Japanese assets (ala Luigi's Mansion 2).
There's a lesson to be learned there but I'm not quite sure what it is yet.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Maybe it contributed somewhat to the drop but everything had a nice drop last week. Does someone have a link to the sold out report from Famitsu?

http://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

ハード市場では、3DS（3DS LL含む）が5.5万台を販売し、首位を維持。PS Vitaは、一部で品薄となる店舗もある中で2.0万台を販売し、2番手を守った。

Looking at the hardware market, the 3DS (Including the 3DS XL) sold 55,000 units, and held top spot. The PS Vita, while some stores are experiencing shortages, managed to sell 20,000 units and maintain the second ranking.

 

[serplux]

So, has the Mario & Luigi sales potential grown from last gen? Is it feasible for Dream Team to surpass Bowser's Inside Story?

 

[metalslimer]

I find it interesting that Japanese gamers will flock towards a Western-developed title IF it employs Japanese assets (ala Luigi's Mansion 2).
There's a lesson to be learned there but I'm not quite sure what it is yet.

Who says they even know its from the west. No one outside of gaming forums knows someone beside nintendo made it. Same for DKCR