Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2017 (Apr 03 - Apr 09)

jonno394 said:
MK8D will sell 1m before Splatoon 2 imo.
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That could be the case, but I think we still have a good 2 months before there are a million Switches in Japan.

Aostia said:
Isn't FFXV a million seller now? I agree that splatoon will likely be the first million seller on the console. Mk8 could ai at that milestone but probably later on the year
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XV is very very close, I don't know if it crossed just yet, I think it is still a few thousand off the mark, but it's hard to say.
 
KtSlime said:
That could be the case, but I think we still have a good 2 months before there are a million Switches in Japan.



XV is very very close, I don't know if it crossed just yet, I think it is still a few thousand off the mark, but it's hard to say.
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I agree
Mk8 can't sell 1 million copies for awhile while splatoon will probably benefit from a wider install Base and by a more front loaded number to win that internal "race"
 
Aostia said:
Isn't FFXV a million seller now? I agree that splatoon will likely be the first million seller on the console. Mk8 could ai at that milestone but probably later on the year
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25./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 2.490 / 968.457 <80-100%>

I know that it misses the digital sales but it's fine to talk about million-seller in the context of Famitsu/Media Create considering the thread we are in.
 
thestopsign said:
The difference is, predicting Minecraft to sell over 200k on Wii U is completely reasonable. I don't think anyone would have called you crazy for saying that.
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I don't think it's crazy that Minecraft might sell over a million on the Switch in 2017 in Japan. Lets be real conservative and say that there is 4 million Switch owners by the end of the year only 1/4 would have to buy Minecraft for it to reach 1 million. Minecraft is a big title for kids and was the major reason why someone would purchase a Vita and the secondary reason to buy a Wii U since it's release

Week 49, 2015 (Nov 30 - Dec 06)
Minecraft: 11.179
PSV: 22.506

Week 50, 2015 (Dec 07 - Dec 13)
Minecraft: 17.643
PSV: 35.909

Week 51, 2015 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)
Minecraft: 32.129
PSV: 53.123

Week 52, 2015 (Dec 21 - Dec 27)
Minecraft: 62.356
PSV: 74.330

Week 53, 2015 (Dec 28 - Jan 03)
Minecraft: 48.222
PSV: 57.170

Total for Dec 2015
Minecraft: 171.529
PSV: 243.038
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thestopsign said:
It was also all the Vita had software wise. That said, this may sound like I am contradicting what I just said, but I really don't agree with how you equate the sales of a game in a certain week directly with new buyers. There is some correlation, but it is certainly not 1:1 or even close to it. Then there is a second jump that the same thing is going to apply on a completely different system under different circumstances.
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I see the correlation between a franchise popular with a younger audience doing well during December or other vacation months. I can see this franchise doing even better on a platform that is more popular among young kids than either Vita or the Wii U. I still don't understand people who doubt Minecraft - especially when we've seen how well it has done on the Vita/Wii U despite a handful of big games(Splatoon/SMM on the Wii U or DQ:Builders on the Vita). We've already seen SMM on the 3DS sell more than the Wii U version in a couple of months, DQ: Builders is probably getting ported at some point. Switch is going to be a device that most kids in Japan will want these holidays and Splatoon 2, MK8D and Minecraft are three major games that will be ready for summer vacation.
 
noshten said:
I don't think it's crazy that Minecraft might sell over a million on the Switch in 2017 in Japan. Lets be real conservative and say that there is 4 million Switch owners by the end of the year only 1/4 would have to buy Minecraft for it to reach 1 million. Minecraft is a big title for kids and was the major reason why someone would purchase a Vita and the secondary reason to buy a Wii U since it's release
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It was also all the Vita had software wise. That said, this may sound like I am contradicting what I just said, but I really don't agree with how you equate the sales of a game in a certain week directly with new buyers. There is some correlation, but it is certainly not 1:1 or even close to it. Then there is a second jump that the same thing is going to apply on a completely different system under different circumstances.
 
I don't doubt any of the titles you have talked about ever. I think they will all do well, in some cases incredibly well. Just not quite at the magnitude you think they will, because honestly just about all of your predictions would be unprecedented.
 
Switch doesn't have an atractive price for kids.
People who is interested on Switch are mainly young japanese people, not kids.
And people interested in Splatoon 2 are again, mainly young japanese people.
 
noshten said:
I don't think it's crazy that Minecraft might sell over a million on the Switch in 2017 in Japan. Lets be real conservative and say that there is 4 million Switch owners by the end of the year only 1/4 would have to buy Minecraft for it to reach 1 million. Minecraft is a big title for kids and was the major reason why someone would purchase a Vita and the secondary reason to buy a Wii U since it's release
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I wouldn't say 4 million is conservative at the end of this year. That's a lot of consoles sold.
 
The Switches price is going to be what limits Minecraft. The audience for that game skew young and the Switch is still pretty expensive. I mean the WiiU is still expensive but point remains for the game to take off the Switch will probably need to be cheaper. But it is a slow burn series in the same notion so it will be successful. Its just a matter of how fast the adoption occurs.
 
hiska-kun said:
Switch doesn't have an atractive price for kids.
People who is interested on Switch are mainly young japanese people, not kids.
And people interested in Splatoon 2 are again, mainly young japanese people.
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While it is expensive, children are encouraged to save money, and they do get a considerable amount for graduations, birthdays, New Years, and other holidays.
 
cw_sasuke said:
You dont have to be a Top 10 game in Japan to already be performing quite well - there are a dozens of title that keep chugging along without or rarely hitting those high notes.

I mean you are right that the titles have been performing better compared to 2010 - but thats most likely because the games are based on more popular IPs nowadays (FF,DBZ etc.) and the fact that companies are even bothering with the Global market. I would put it in the same category as people saying 3rdParty games perform well on Nintendo consoles because of Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest.

Lets see how the market evolves outside of the titles that are tied to already proven/successful brands. Was quite disappointed to see how titles like PaD and MS have been managed outside of Japan. PaD still doesnt have a european Android version - what a joke, Not that anyone would care at this point...but yeah.

Edit:

What i wanna add though - Bamco has been killing it on the mobile market. They seem to be ready for the takeover and their gacha titles based on their licensed brands are usually quite solid efforts. This probably helped raising awareness over the years.
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So, there are actually some games that aren't branded that do well, but given what they are, along with the presence of all Chinese language games ranking well on the US App Store, I feel I can't genuinely assert that it's Americans playing them (and am actually very suspicious that a large portion are people from China and SEA who use the US app store).

That said, with my original statement, I was thinking more along the lines of all the branded titles that generally didn't get localized or didn't do well overseas, and that we're now seeing an uptick in localization for.
 
marc^o^ said:
Source?
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That's what retailers blogs said at launch, Switch main buyers are people around 20s, university students and young workers. I doubt the situation changed until now.

Anyway, Media Creare will release the White Book with the Switch buyers profile on May, for more information.
 
Y-Z said:
I wouldn't say 4 million is conservative at the end of this year. That's a lot of consoles sold.
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Yeah. Time to reach 4 million by Famitsu's count
DS: 54 weeks
Wii: 54 weeks
3DS: 44 weeks

EDIT: To be more fair, those all boil down to "After the first year-end holiday season post-launch." which helps explain why 3DS got there first. By the time they'd each reached the end of that holiday season, they were all well over 4m by at least hundreds of thousands.
 
Y-Z said:
I wouldn't say 4 million is conservative at the end of this year. That's a lot of consoles sold.
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Indeed, but unlike some other crazy predictions I see for Switch software that is a number not impossible to happen.

Still, it's at the high end of what Switch could sell this year in Japan and demands strong sales all the year.
 
gamesmaya

Every year there new titles in April. This year the lineup is weak and with this lineup PS4 body can not be pulled.

All depend on Switch. High school and college students, weak market until now with Nintendo, are on the rise. Splatoon 2 release date announcement was big.

Like Wii U, she sees the possibilitty for Splatoon 2 bundle, time will show if it happens later.
 
hiska-kun said:
That's what retailers blogs said at launch, Switch main buyers are people around 20s, university students and young workers. I doubt the situation changed until now.

Anyway, Media Creare will release the White Book with the Switch buyers profile on May, for more information.
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I think he means regarding Splatoon 2.
 
noshten said:
So there is no major Japanese 3rd party game release dates for the Switch yet - Minecraft looking likely to be the first million selling 3rd party game on the system(in Japan).
I'm thinking 3-4 million in is like the minimum for Minecraft on the Switch this year WW. It's funny that Microsoft is ahead Japanese 3rd parties in getting a major game like Minecraft ported to the system.
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This is pretty inline with all your other predictions.I admire your consistency.
 
hiska-kun said:
Splatoon 2 > DQXI PS4
on Comg already. It's catching the 3DS version too...
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RG0BS1U.gif
 
hiska-kun said:
Splatoon 2 > DQXI PS4
on Comg already. It's catching the 3DS version too...
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Yeah I know its a small sample size, etc., but the original finished with 147 points and Splatoon 2 is at 87 3 months out from release..
 
I wonder where Splatoon 2 will fall on this ranking:
FF7R > MH5 >= DQ11 > FFXV > KH3 > Persona 5
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I mean, Splatoon 2 selling more than MH5? That's pretty weird.
 
Too bad for Sony that they couldn't have New Minna no Golf ready for April/May, not much going on right now for PS4.

2nd half should be good though.
 
Honest question, since this is by default the thread where discussions about Japanese development fit the best, but this is something I've been wondering the past few days: are we expecting a brand new Mario & Sonic to appear this year?

Next February is the Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics will take place, and usually this means that a M&S should make an appearance on shelves in the next few months. Given how the games are usually released a bit before the actual sport events, that would make a Fall / Holiday release a pretty good fit for the game. Also, if it's going to happen, I'm expecting it to be a Switch/Nintendo 3DS release, the classic dual release: the only exception to the rule was the last Winter Olympics game, M&S @ Sochi 2014, but I suppose they won't try that again (the game bombed horribly everywhere). But do we have any idea if the Nintendo/Sega/CIO partnership is still on? Or if there are specific details that would allow a Winter Olympics game to miss the schedule? I can see a scenario where the different parties decide to forfeit the Winter Olympics game to focus all their attentions to the next Olympics game, for Tokyo 2020, in order to create a game that can recapture at least part of the audience that made the first games big successes but that failed to show up enough for the latest iterations: M&S at Rio Olympics 2016 did fine in Japan, but Western numbers were quite low, I believe, and that's what could bring a decision to focus resources on Tokyo 2020. Your thoughts on the matter? Also, posting Famitsu numbers for a Japanese context (source: Gamedatalibrary).

WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 67.054 594.157 Nintendo 11/22/2007
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 90.793 383.558 Nintendo 1/17/2008
3DS Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 44.024 268.480 Nintendo 2/18/2016
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 25.663 254.341 Nintendo 11/19/2009
3DS Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 46.357 236.480 Nintendo 3/1/2012
WII Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 24.330 221.542 Nintendo 12/8/2011
WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 24.476 194.916 Nintendo 11/5/2009
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 21.041 124.784 Nintendo 6/23/2016
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games 5.149 51.341 Nintendo 12/5/2013
 
KtSlime said:
That ranking is way off base, no way will FF7R sell more than DQ11. Splatoon 2 will be more than FF7R
But less than DQ11.
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I think that ranking was specifically for PS4 skus. So Splatoon 2 should outsell everything in that ranking handily.

mpl, I think some version of Mario & Sonic is likely for this year. I don't see them skipping out on the 2018 games and the Switch is a good system match. They already have assets for both a Switch (from Wii U) and a 3DS version that they can reuse.
 
From Persona to Final Fantasy to Dragon Quest. Why does Splatoon keep getting compared to JRPGs? If Splatoon beats Dragon Quest it's already matching Pokemon, so the only thing up from there would be Animal Crossing I guess.
 
thestopsign said:
I think that ranking was specifically for PS4 skus. So Splatoon 2 should outsell everything in that ranking handily.
Click to expand...

It was also posted by someone who's currently in a mission from God (and FFVIIR > everything else highlights this fact), so we shouldn't treat it as a reference for anything, not even PS4 specific rankings :P
 
Mpl90 said:
Honest question, since this is by default the thread where discussions about Japanese development fit the best, but this is something I've been wondering the past few days: are we expecting a brand new Mario & Sonic to appear this year?

Next February is the Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics will take place, and usually this means that a M&S should make an appearance on shelves in the next few months. Given how the games are usually released a bit before the actual sport events, that would make a Fall / Holiday release a pretty good fit for the game. Also, if it's going to happen, I'm expecting it to be a Switch/Nintendo 3DS release, the classic dual release: the only exception to the rule was the last Winter Olympics game, M&S @ Sochi 2014, but I suppose they won't try that again (the game bombed horribly everywhere). But do we have any idea if the Nintendo/Sega/CIO partnership is still on? Or if there are specific details that would allow a Winter Olympics game to miss the schedule? I can see a scenario where the different parties decide to forfeit the Winter Olympics game to focus all their attentions to the next Olympics game, for Tokyo 2020, in order to create a game that can recapture at least part of the audience that made the first games big successes but that failed to show up enough for the latest iterations: M&S at Rio Olympics 2016 did fine in Japan, but Western numbers were quite low, I believe, and that's what could bring a decision to focus resources on Tokyo 2020. Your thoughts on the matter? Also, posting Famitsu numbers for a Japanese context (source: Gamedatalibrary).

WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 67.054 594.157 Nintendo 11/22/2007
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 90.793 383.558 Nintendo 1/17/2008
3DS Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 44.024 268.480 Nintendo 2/18/2016
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 25.663 254.341 Nintendo 11/19/2009
3DS Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 46.357 236.480 Nintendo 3/1/2012
WII Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 24.330 221.542 Nintendo 12/8/2011
WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 24.476 194.916 Nintendo 11/5/2009
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 21.041 124.784 Nintendo 6/23/2016
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games 5.149 51.341 Nintendo 12/5/2013
Click to expand...
I imagine Sega could just port assets from the Wii U Winter Olympics game over to Switch, reskin a few things for Pyeongchang and call it a day while spending the majority of the time on the Tokyo game. Wouldn't be worth bothering with a 3DS game.
 
Mpl90 said:
Honest question, since this is by default the thread where discussions about Japanese development fit the best, but this is something I've been wondering the past few days: are we expecting a brand new Mario & Sonic to appear this year?

Next February is the Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics will take place, and usually this means that a M&S should make an appearance on shelves in the next few months. Given how the games are usually released a bit before the actual sport events, that would make a Fall / Holiday release a pretty good fit for the game. Also, if it's going to happen, I'm expecting it to be a Switch/Nintendo 3DS release, the classic dual release: the only exception to the rule was the last Winter Olympics game, M&S @ Sochi 2014, but I suppose they won't try that again (the game bombed horribly everywhere). But do we have any idea if the Nintendo/Sega/CIO partnership is still on? Or if there are specific details that would allow a Winter Olympics game to miss the schedule? I can see a scenario where the different parties decide to forfeit the Winter Olympics game to focus all their attentions to the next Olympics game, for Tokyo 2020, in order to create a game that can recapture at least part of the audience that made the first games big successes but that failed to show up enough for the latest iterations: M&S at Rio Olympics 2016 did fine in Japan, but Western numbers were quite low, I believe, and that's what could bring a decision to focus resources on Tokyo 2020. Your thoughts on the matter? Also, posting Famitsu numbers for a Japanese context (source: Gamedatalibrary).

WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 67.054 594.157 Nintendo 11/22/2007
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 90.793 383.558 Nintendo 1/17/2008
3DS Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 44.024 268.480 Nintendo 2/18/2016
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 25.663 254.341 Nintendo 11/19/2009
3DS Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 46.357 236.480 Nintendo 3/1/2012
WII Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 24.330 221.542 Nintendo 12/8/2011
WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 24.476 194.916 Nintendo 11/5/2009
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 21.041 124.784 Nintendo 6/23/2016
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games 5.149 51.341 Nintendo 12/5/2013
Click to expand...

I'm thinking there'll be one, it'll fill a niche currently underserved by the announced line up though maybe nintendo have other ideas
 
thestopsign said:
I think that ranking was specifically for PS4 skus. So Splatoon 2 should outsell everything in that ranking handily.

mpl, I think some version of Mario & Sonic is likely for this year. I don't see them skipping out on the 2018 games and the Switch is a good system match. They already have assets for both a Switch (from Wii U) and a 3DS version that they can reuse.
Click to expand...

Ah, that makes sense. The inclusion of MH5 in that ranking threw me off.
 
Should VS DQXI, same month, 8 days apart.

Nightmare for poor poor souls that want to play both.




Ah oh FFXII HD /laugh
 
Eh. I think Splatoon 2 was always going to get bigger pre order numbers than DQXI. But I think DQXI (combined total across the 3 systems) will outsell it.

Splatoon 2 will still finish up around 3+ million LTD.
 
Mr. Pointy said:
Eh. I think Splatoon 2 was always going to get bigger pre order numbers than DQXI. But I think DQXI (combined total across the 3 systems) will outsell it.

Splatoon 2 will still finish up around 3+ million LTD.
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why?

- It has a tiny install base.
- It's known to be leggy unlike JRPGs which are front loaded.
- And people definitely didn't expect it to have bigger preorders than 3DS DQ11, which won't end up that way.
 
But how does Splatoon 2 compare to the sales of the most recent slow cookers?

We're thinking too small! We must look at all markets.
 
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