lunchwithyuzo said:
Lost revenue can be offset by 1st party subsidies. And it seems pretty obvious that Nintendo sunk a lot of cash into MH previously, I think they'd be willing to again.
1st party subsidies wouldn't offset Monster Hunter dropping from 5M to 2M. That would be a loss of over $100M. Nintendo is not going to pay Capcom anywhere near that much for 3DS exclusivity. IF Capcom is dead set on moving the Monster Hunter series to 3DS exclusively, they should wait at least 2 years to do so. Release 3G on PSP within the next year. Then follow up with MHP4 in late 2012 or early 2013. By then the 3DS userbase might be big enough. If sales pick up.
lunchwithyuzo said:
MH about as big as it can get in Japan, there's no more growth opportunity there. It might be worth it to "only" sell 2m in Japan if they can grow outside Japan, where there's a lot more room for it. Especially during a generational transition, even if the first 3DS MH only sells 2m in Japan, maybe the next grows to 3m or 4m? That on top of growth outside Japan, what if there's the possibility that MH may grow from a 5m series to 10m? That's not going to happen by only considering Japan exclusively.
PSP's not going to be around forever, and it's so dead outside Japan Capcom hasn't bothered releasing anything on the system since mid 2009. It's getting time to think about the future.
Monster Hunter will never sell 5M copies outside of Japan. Unless it is radically reworked into something that is not Monster Hunter. I have played Freedom 2, Freedom Unite, and Tri. All of them are too slow paced, and too complicated to be popular with the average western gamer. Monster Hunter games require a lot of patience and practice.
If you look at the big sellers in the west, they are all games you can pick up and play almost instantly. It takes 5 minutes to figure out how to play Call of Duty or New Super Mario Bros. You have to invest an hour or two into Monster Hunter just to get a grasp on the basics.
If Monster Hunter was going to break out in the west, it would have with Tri. It had a decent push from Nintendo, was released on a console with a gigantic userbase, and had a newly-released pack-in controller. Based on the numbers on Capcom's platinum sellers web page, it looks like the game shipped 600-700k outside Japan. Not bad at all, but nothing amazing.
People mention that Monster Hunter's true appeal is local co-op, but teenagers and adults in the west don't really play handhelds in public. Well over 90% of the adults I see playing games in public are playing them on an iPhone, Android or similar mobile device. If these people own PSPs and DSs (and some of them surely do), they are playing them at home. Online multiplayer is the better option for Monster Hunter in the west and Tri already had that.