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[lunchwithyuzo]

If the game is actually budgeted high enough that it would need to sell 50 percent more than the most successful PSP release (Ys Seven) and over 2.5 times as much as the most directly comparable one (Oath in Felghana) just to turn a profit, that seems like a questionable decision regardless of platform.

I thought Ys VII did about 100k? Oath PSP was just an old port, so not really comparable.

 

[Shahed]

Future 100k sellers:

08.30.12 Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (Sega)
08.xx.12 Legend of Heroes: Zero no Kiseki Evolution (Kadokawa)
09.27.12 Little Battler eXperience W (Level-5)
09.27.12 Ys Celcita, Sea of Trees (Falcom)
Q4 2012 Soul Sacrifice (SCEI)
H1 2013 Phantasy Star Online 2 (Sega)
TBA Final Fantasy X HD (Square Enix)

What would be the 3DS equivalent?

 

[Father_Brain]

I thought Ys VII did about 100k? Oath PSP was just an old port, so not really comparable.

68.5K. Celceta will do better than Felghana by virtue of not being a port, but I'd expect it to sell worse than Seven by virtue of not being a mainline entry.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

In image form because Garaph is giving all sorts of errors (in the sqldirect and in the linecompare).

Well huh. Only thing I've changed in the last couple months was a fix in the Game Search; must be some version change in PHP/MySQL making things act up.

Yeah, a quick look shows my host just upgraded both of those, so I'll need to tinker with things.

 

[jonno394]

What would be the 3DS equivalent?

I'm sure someone else will come and answer this with all the potential 3rd party 100k titles, but there's Rune Factory 4 and Soul Hackers coming out over the next couple of months, the former will definitely smash 100k, the latter, who knows.

That's before the likes of NSMB2, Luigis Mansion and Paper Mario. I assume all 4 will reach 100k at some point.

edit - bolds are potentially could if sales environment is right, the unbolded imo probably will be 100k+

18/08/2012 New Super Mario Bros 2
Holiday 2012 Paper Mario Sticker Star
Holiday 2012 Luigis Mansion: Dark Moon
28/06/2012 Culdcept
05/07/2012 Etrian Odyssey IV
05/07/2012 Little Battlers Experience: Explosive Blast
30/08/2012 Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers
13/09/2012 Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd
13/09/2012 Medabots 7

 

[bigtroyjon]

PSP(2011 YTD)= 1,072,141
PSP+PSV(2012)=749,582(-30.1%)

Looking ahead to Week 25, PSP did 29,181 in 2011.

3DS+DS(2011 YTD)=1,607,151
3DS+DS(2012 YTD)=2,045,143(+27.3%)

Looking ahead to week 25, 3DS+DS did 37,445 in 2011.

All handhelds(2011 YTD)=2,679,292
All handhelds(2012 YTD)=2,794,725

 

[Cookie18]

Very nice for the Vita. I think people are forgetting that the Vita doesn't have to be beating the 3DS for it to be doing well. That's like saying the PS3 and 360 sold awfully this generation just because the Wii sold extremely well.

 

[timetokill]

Very nice for the Vita. I think people are forgetting that the Vita doesn't have to be beating the 3DS for it to be doing well. That's like saying the PS3 and 360 sold awfully this generation just because the Wii sold extremely well.

I think people are forgetting that the Vita is doing awfully by historical measures, not simply by comparison to the 3DS.

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

Very nice for the Vita. I think people are forgetting that the Vita doesn't have to be beating the 3DS for it to be doing well. That's like saying the PS3 and 360 sold awfully this generation just because the Wii sold extremely well.

It probably has to be beating the GameCube and Dreamcast.

Let's not get carried away here.

 

[michaelius]

First weeks of portable Persona:

[PSP] Persona (Atlus Co.) - 79,192 / NEW
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus Co.) - 94,287 / NEW
[PSP] Persona 2: Innocent Sin (Atlus Co.) - 62.721 / NEW
[PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment (Atlus Co. - 24.547 / NEW
[PSV] Persona 4: The Golden (Atlus Co.) - 137,076 / NEW

By far the highest debut in portable Persona history, though it will be the most front loaded due to the userbase size of Vita.

And probably much much higher than any PSP persona title digital sales.

 

[botty]

Very nice for the Vita. I think people are forgetting that the Vita doesn't have to be beating the 3DS for it to be doing well. That's like saying the PS3 and 360 sold awfully this generation just because the Wii sold extremely well.

Yeah, but I think there's a huge difference between being outsold by your competitor and selling really poorly. This Vita bump was expected months ago, considering how much Japan was craving P4. "What's next?" is the real question, though.

 

[Cookie18]

I think people are forgetting that the Vita is doing awfully by historical measures, not simply by comparison to the 3DS.

This week has proven that with new games it can sell pretty well. It isn't great by any means and I am sure it will drop off next week but we're only 6 months in and this is arguably the first big game for the Vita and even then it is still just a remake.

Edit:

Yeah, but I think there's a huge difference between being outsold by your competitor and selling really poorly. This Vita bump was expected months ago, considering how much Japan was craving P4. "What's next?" is the real question, though.

Perhaps the MGS HD collection will give it another similar bump in a couple of weeks. There are a few more games coming out for the Vita in Japan this summer but I honestly don't know enough about them to say whether they will do well or not.

The point is that with some decent games it can sell well.

 

[electroplankton]

This week has proven that with new games it can sell pretty well. It isn't great by any means and I am sure it will drop off next week but we're only 6 months in and this is arguably the first big game for the Vita and even then it is still just a remake.

Xbox 360 sold approximately 35k units the week Blue Dragon was released.

 

[Cookie18]

Xbox 360 sold approximately 35k units the week Blue Dragon was released.

And?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

What would be the 3DS equivalent?

Over 100k possible? I would say:

06.28.12 Culdcept (Nintendo)
07.05.12 Etrian Odyssey IV (Atlus)
07.05.12 Little Battler eXperience Baku Boost (Level-5)
07.12.12 Taiko no Tatsujin: Chibi Dragon to Fushigi na Orb (Namco)
07.19.12 Rune Factory 4 (Marvelous AQL)
08.30.12 Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (Atlus)
08.30.12 Senran Kagura Burst (Marvelous AQL)
08.xx.12 New Super Mario Bros. 2 (Nintendo)
09.06.12 Lost Heroes (Bandai)
09.13.12 Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd (Koei)
Q4 2012 Tobidase Animal Crossing (Nintendo)
2012 Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (Square Enix)
2012 E.X.Troopers (Capcom)
2012 Fantasy Life (Level-5)
2012 Inazuma Eleven 2: Chrono Stone (Level-5)
2012 Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon (Nintendo)
2012 Oni Training (Nintendo)
2012 Paper Mario: Sticker Star (Nintendo)
2012 Professor Layton Vs. Ace Attorney (Level-5)
2012 Project X Zone (Bandai)
2012 Shin Megami Tensei IV (Atlus)
2012 Style Savvy 2 (Nintendo)
TBA Monster Hunter 4 (Capcom)
TBA Super Smash Bros. 4 (Nintendo)
TBA Tomodachi Collection 2 (Nintendo)

Though a few of those are iffy.

 

[jj984jj]

The divide between modern Persona style Atlus games and oldschool Atlus games is so great that I think SMT4 sales are going to be very interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if SMT4 doesn't do much better than SJ or EO games, maybe even less than Catherine. Hashino's game design style and Soejima's art definitely appeals to modern Japanese gamers and audiences in general way more.

Just proves that Kaneko's art will never find a mainstream audience.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

68.5K. Celceta will do better than Felghana by virtue of not being a port, but I'd expect it to sell worse than Seven by virtue of not being a mainline entry.

That... can't be right? That's pretty awful tbh, way lower than I thought. :/

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This week has proven that with new games it can sell pretty well. It isn't great by any means and I am sure it will drop off next week but we're only 6 months in and this is arguably the first big game for the Vita and even then it is still just a remake.

GameCube's Resident Evil remake comes to mind. Came almost exactly 6 months after launch, game sold 119K first week, hardware sold 34.5K up from 13K the week before.

 

[Father_Brain]

And?

The point is that any hardware, however normally unsuccessful, can get a decent short-term boost from sales of bigger exclusive software.

Vita's fundamental problem is the paucity of that bigger software; as lunchwithyuzo noted, there are only a handful of titles with a decent shot of selling above 100K, and only two of them (Hatsune Miku and FFX) really have a shot at selling over 300K. It's why the system desperately needs a lot of software announcements in the months leading up to, and at, TGS.

 

[NateDrake]

And?

Edit: Beaten by Father Brain.

 

[saichi]

And?

Answers below.

It probably has to be beating the GameCube and Dreamcast.

Let's not get carried away here.

Yeah, but I think there's a huge difference between being outsold by your competitor and selling really poorly. This Vita bump was expected months ago, considering how much Japan was craving P4. "What's next?" is the real question, though.

___

Perhaps the MGS HD collection will give it another similar bump in a couple of weeks. There are a few more games coming out for the Vita in Japan this summer but I honestly don't know enough about them to say whether they will do well or not.

MGSHD will not provide a "similar bump" and no VITA game is likely to sell 100K before Miku on 08/30 which means it's another two month drought.

The point is that with some decent games it can sell well.

As someone pointed out earlier, Gamecube or Dreamcast had similar bump when big games were released. Neither of them ended up selling well.

EDIT: Beaten badly

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

That... can't be right? That's pretty awful tbh, way lower than I thought. :/

Ys just isn't a very big deal. Among those on home/handheld game machines, that's the best of the last decade at least.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

fuck yeah at p4 golden sales!

also nice to see vita's bump and tokyo jungle with a strong second week.

 

[electroplankton]

And?

And one good week does not mean anything. Of course with a strong IP it can arrange a nice boost but that's all.

 

[test_account]

About Dreamcast and Gamecube bumps, then you have PSP and PS3 on the other side of the spectrum. So it pretty much comes down to which side you choose, optimistic or sceptic.

2012 E.X.Troopers (Capcom)

Just wondering, why do you think that this has a good chance of selling 100k+? Isnt it a shooter àla Lost Planet? Also being multiplatform with PS3.

 

[saichi]

About Dreamcast and Gamecube bumps, then you have PSP and PS3 on the other side of the spectrum. So it pretty much comes down to which side you choose, optimistic or sceptic.

To start, VITA is doing a lot worse than PSP or PS3 and closer to Gamecube or Dreamcast.

 

[SmokedMeat]

To start, VITA is doing a lot worse than PSP or PS3 and closer to Gamecube or Dreamcast.

Sony's no Sega. Comparing Vita to Dreamcast is ridiculous.

 

[Man God]

It's true, can't compare them.

Dreamcast had good first party support.

 

[electroplankton]

Sony's no Sega. Comparing Vita to Dreamcast is ridiculous.

Yeah, software on DC was selling much better at this point.

 

[wrowa]

Just wondering, why do you think that this has a good chance of selling 100k+? Isnt it a shooter àla Lost Planet? Also being multiplatform with PS3.

Well, both Lost Planets sold more than 100k in Japan and EX Troopers looks like a Lost Planet spin-off specially tailored to the Japanese market. Whether or not it's going to sell good is a big questionmark, but it might be possible to hit 100k. Maybe.

 

[Moor-Angol]

And?

and GC sold more than PS2 the week Smash Bros was released

 

[test_account]

To start, VITA is doing a lot worse than PSP or PS3 and closer to Gamecube or Dreamcast.

If you were in Media Create threads around 2007 you know that the situation have changed a lot for the PSP and PS3. Not just about sales, but also people's viewpoint/comments on these platforms. The thing is that the situation can bo both ways. It is 6 months into the Vita cycle, so people can choose to be optimistic or sceptic

Well, both Lost Planets sold more than 100k in Japan and EX Troopers looks like a Lost Planet spin-off specially tailored to the Japanese market. Whether or not it's going to sell good is a big questionmark, but it might be possible to hit 100k. Maybe.

True, but there is a PS3 version. I cant really see why the 3DS version would sell 100k+.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I doubt MGSHD will bump the Vita to even 20k. 15k if they're lucky.

Edit: NVM, yep 15k it is.

Judging the performance of the game on the PS3, I doubt it'll even be a blip on the radar.

Agreed that the game alone would not have a big effect, but the White Pack probably yes.

 

[Mr Swine]

Isn't higher development costs a big problem for developers if they make games for vita? Won't developers make games for the 3DS if it costs a lot less to make and sell the same amount as it would do on the Vita?

 

[Anth0ny]

Woah Vita got a pretty nice bump

Too bad it won't last.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

To complete next gen, Wii U 100k Club:

Q4 2012 New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo)
Q4 2012 Nintendo Land (Nintendo)
Q4 2012 Pikmin 3 (Nintendo)
Q4 2012 Wii Fit U (Nintendo)
TBA Dragon Quest X Online (Square Enix)
TBA Super Smash Bros. 4 (Nintendo)

Just wondering, why do you think that this has a good chance of selling 100k+? Isnt it a shooter àla Lost Planet? Also being multiplatform with PS3.

It's Lost Planet for Japan and LP1-2 each did over 100k iirc. Capcom's also done really well on 3DS in general, though maybe PS3 eats most of the sales.

 

[Kasumi1970]

What the PSV did better than the PS3????
PSV | 34,459 | 13,383 | 325,528 | 765,513 | PS3 | 14,673 | 15,593 | 603,597 | 8,239,983 |
Why is it selling like this?

 

[patsu]

Xbox 360 sold approximately 35k units the week Blue Dragon was released.

But it averages 1,000 usually.

 

[Alrus]

What the PSV did better than the PS3????
PSV | 34,459 | 13,383 | 325,528 | 765,513 | PS3 | 14,673 | 15,593 | 603,597 | 8,239,983 |
Why is it selling like this?

Huh? The Vita had its biggest game since launch this week, that's why it's selling okay this week.

 

[test_account]

Isn't higher development costs a big problem for developers if they make games for vita? Won't developers make games for the 3DS if it costs a lot less to make and sell the same amount as it would do on the Vita?

Yeah, if the publisher is very confident about making more money somewhere else, then they will most likely go that route. But the platforms arent 100% identical, so publishers will try both platforms out. Developement costs is also up to the publishers, you dont have to pour tons of money into something (take a look at Ciel No Surge for Vita just to take one example).

It's Lost Planet for Japan and LP1-2 each did over 100k iirc. Capcom's also done really well on 3DS in general, though maybe PS3 eats most of the sales.

Yep, it is the PS3 version being released at the same time that made me ask that question

 

[Truth101]

What the PSV did better than the PS3????
PSV | 34,459 | 13,383 | 325,528 | 765,513 | PS3 | 14,673 | 15,593 | 603,597 | 8,239,983 |
Why is it selling like this?

Because the Vita had a moderately big IP release last week.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

True, but there is a PS3 version. I cant really see why the 3DS version would sell 100k+.

3DS being orders of magnitude more popular/successful might help. None of those lists ate sure things, only possibilities.

 

[Thoraxes]

Well, looks like my prediction was right in the ballpark.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

But it averages 1,000 usually.

Now it does, what about 2006?

 

[Road]

If you were in Media Create threads around 2007 you know that the situation have changed a lot for the PSP and PS3. Not just about sales, but also people's viewpoint/comments on these platforms. The thing is that the situation can bo both ways. It is 6 months into the Vita cycle, so people can choose to be optimistic or sceptic



True, but there is a PS3 version. I cant really see why the 3DS version would sell 100k+.

I like to think of them as realistic and delusional.

Give me a call when the Vita has announced for it Resident Evil 6, Final Fantasy XV, Metal Gear Solid 5, Yakuza 6, Dynasty Warriors 8, Monster Hunter 4 and Kingdom Hearts 3.

 

[Takao]

68.5K. Celceta will do better than Felghana by virtue of not being a port, but I'd expect it to sell worse than Seven by virtue of not being a mainline entry.

Ys Celceta is a mainline entry. It's the first time Falcom itself is making Ys 4. This will be the real version of Ys 4. I think it'll do well because it's important enough to grab the Ys fanbase, and some hungry Vita owners, but not 100k well.

 

[Bruno MB]

Grasshopper Manufacture titles:

[PS1] The Silver Case - 7,941 / 7,941
[PS2] Flower, Sun, and Rain - 5,841 / 5,841
[PS2] Michigan: Report from Hell - 15,150 / 31,667
[PS2] Killer 7 - 13,715 / 28,586 (GCN - 4,512 / 4,512)
[NDS] Contact - 8,102 / 25,413
[Wii] No More Heroes - ? / 20,320
[PS3] No More Heroes: Heroes' Paradise - 15,763 / 26,339 (360 - 15,153 / 20,073)
[Wii] No More Heroes 2: Desperate Struggle - 11,373 / 15,403
[PS3] No More Heroes Red Zone Edition - 40,313 / 64,318
[PS3] Shadows of the Damned - 9,145 / 18,420
[PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw - 53,347 / NEW (360 - 14,422 / NEW)

Dragon Quest Monsters (third week sales)

[NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker - 55,180 / 916,000 (supply constrained)
[NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 - 126,096 / 1,002,601
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry no Wonderland 3D - 66,434 / 662,946

 

[saichi]

I like to think of them as realistic and delusional.

Give me a call when the Vita has announced for it Resident Evil 6, Final Fantasy XV, Metal Gear Solid 5, Yakuza 6, Dynasty Warriors 8, Monster Hunter 4 and Kingdom Hearts 3.

A lot of people buy lotteries. Every single one of them is optimistic that they will win it.

 

[test_account]

3DS being orders of magnitude more popular/successful might help. None of those lists ate sure things, only possibilities.

I think that most people will prefer this game on a TV if it is identical between the PS3 and 3DS. I'm sure that someone will prefer the portable aspect too, but i dont know about 100k+. But only time will tell.

I like think of it as realistic and delusional.

Give me a call when the Vita has announced for it Resident Evil 6, Final Fantasy XV, Metal Gear Solid 5, Yakuza 6, Dynasty Warriors 8, Monster Hunter 4 and Kingdom Hearts 3.

It depends on what scope people are talking about. If it is about gaining sales to PSP level or the Vita being a system that will be supported for years. I'm thinking of the latter, but from what i gather, many people seems to think about the former (and therefor only discuss around this how unlikely it is).

 

[electroplankton]

But it averages 1,000 usually.

Well, it was selling 5k on average, but the point was: strong IPs and games with some potential (as Blue Dragon) boost hardware sales even in cases where the situation is quite desperate.

Vita at 35k does not necessarily mean that the market is actually accepting the console, just that Persona is a quite big deal on Sony hardware and it has a strong fanbase.

I think that most people will prefer this game on a TV if it is identical between the PS3 and 3DS. I'm sure that someone will prefer the portable aspect too, but i dont know about 100k+. But only time will tell.

Maybe they're not so great examples, but Monster Hunter and Ni no Kuni sold way better on handheld than on home console.
We don't know much about EX Troopers but to me it looks like a game tailored on the handheld experience in the vein of Monster hunter.