I'm thinking FFXVI isn't seen until 2020 or so, yeah. After all this XV business, the company very likely wishes to see how it fares before going forward, especially in the theater of budgetary concerns. They'll also want to see what, if anything, resonates especially strongly in the West.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yeah, I think it can possibly hit 1M LTD.
I see.
Well, I think it is best we agree to disagree. We have pretty different expectations.
That Persona question wasn't for you.
Even in this state, however, FF isn't most Japanese games. It will still blow most of them out of the water in sales. I think it is possible for FF to make it up in the rest of the world. This is assuming things turn out as poor in Japan as we are anticipating, of course. We shall see though.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Double'd.
I'd pick option 4. Bring back Kawazu!
Unfortunately it also cost dramatically more than 100% of Japanese third party games. I also think DQXI might outsell it worldwide, which would be a first for the series since FFVII.
800K-1 million in Japan is a >50% drop from XIII and with that collapse there I can't see them coming close to 5m for west.
Times have changed a lot when it's considered granted XV will see a huge drop from XIII when last year in these threads many doubted FF brand was in decline in Japan and we shouldn't consider XIII-2 and 3 sales as barometer for XV.
NeonZ
Member
IVF also was a budget sequel though. It fixed many gameplay issues from the original, but only has 4 new dungeons, 1 new Tokyo district area and in spite of using the same old 2d sprites for the demons, it has less new demons and less demons overall than SMTIV.
Yeah, I think it can possibly hit 1M LTD.
I see.
Well, I think it is best we agree to disagree. We have pretty different expectations.
That Persona question wasn't for you.
Even in this state, however, FF isn't most Japanese games. It will still blow most of them out of the water in sales. I think it is possible for FF to make it up in the rest of the world. This is assuming things turn out as poor in Japan as we are anticipating, of course. We shall see though.
Oh haha I just saw it when I quoted you.
I struggle to see FFXV substantially increasing over XIII in the west. It could happen if the game is amazing and reviews really well I guess.
DriftingSpirit
Member
No problem lol.
Yeah, that is reasonable. That boost from amazing reviews could prove very useful for FF. The problem is obviously whether it will get those reviews. I don't see it happening. It should score fine in general (maybe low 80 meta with 85 being max) but it probably won't be a big critical hit.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Doubt DQXI will outsell it.
Eolz
Member
Worldwide? I really can't see that happening. FF is way, way more popular than DQ in the west, even when it's a "failure".
I'm optimistic and I think FFXV will be received reasonably well (88 is my guess). The sale is decreasing for sure but it will pass 4.5 million in the first year. The Neo, Scorpio and Steam ports will carry it further but it won't reach FFXIII number (which is a very huge number by the way). I don't think we will hear anything substantial about FFXVI until 2020.
I think FFXIII benefits a lot from being basically the only AAA JRPG last gen. Despite all the issues, it's the only game that can tell you what an HD JRPG might look like. I think it can at least explain the Steam number. FFXV, good or bad, won't have this benefit since other AAA JRPGs are coming out.
Precisely. But nobody says Atlus is idiot right? Even when they ruined their second most important franchise (sales wise, I'm looking forward to the game itself).
I think FFXIII benefits a lot from being basically the only AAA JRPG last gen. Despite all the issues, it's the only game that can tell you what an HD JRPG might look like. I think it can at least explain the Steam number. FFXV, good or bad, won't have this benefit since other AAA JRPGs are coming out.
Precisely. But nobody says Atlus is idiot right? Even when they ruined their second most important franchise (sales wise, I'm looking forward to the game itself).
I don't know about not hearing anything substantial about FFXVI until 2020. My guess is 2018 for that but the game won't drop until 2020-21.
But then again, I really don't have any substantive rationale for that. Just a gut feeling. They're in a really interesting space right now; I maintain that XV's reception is going to dictate a fair bit about XVI. In this world, Final Fantasy simply can no longer afford to be a radical departure every iteration. Interest has declined; Square Enix is going to start really looking hard at what folks -- especially Westerners, I'd gauge -- think before making big decisions not only in design structure but expenses.
EDIT: I gave it another moment's thought, and, heck, I could see us not hearing anything until 2019. FFVII-R is going to be treated like the next big Final Fantasy... and rightly so, all things considered.
But then again, I really don't have any substantive rationale for that. Just a gut feeling. They're in a really interesting space right now; I maintain that XV's reception is going to dictate a fair bit about XVI. In this world, Final Fantasy simply can no longer afford to be a radical departure every iteration. Interest has declined; Square Enix is going to start really looking hard at what folks -- especially Westerners, I'd gauge -- think before making big decisions not only in design structure but expenses.
EDIT: I gave it another moment's thought, and, heck, I could see us not hearing anything until 2019. FFVII-R is going to be treated like the next big Final Fantasy... and rightly so, all things considered.
Apocalypse isn't even a numbered sequel so I don't get how you can say they ruined the franchise. Bravely Second on the other hand is almost assuredly not getting a sequel despite the first game being a hit the company could've built up.
You can view Bravely Default, Bravely Second and Bravely 3rd in the same way too. Just like FFXIII, FFXIII-2, LRFFXIII. Story wise they are direct sequels, but in the same time they are more like spin-offs. I'd say Bravely Second is a better than FFXIII-2 or FFX-2 as a sequel.
There's going to be a Bravely Third?
Eolz
Member
We can only hope. At least Nintendo has shown an interest in the series.
I don't know. They did tease it in Second so at least they considered it. I hope there is a Third because I like Second a lot, probably more than Default.
NeonZ
Member
The issue is that people don't expect Atlus will hold IVF's lower sales against the SMT brand, while it seems like Bravely Second's lower sales might kill the franchise.
IV:A is a post-game add-on that could rather easily be called glorified DLC on a cart.
Bravely Second was a sequel to a much heralded series that surprised everyone when it (it being Bravely Default) did very, very well in the west. The sequel that BD got was a very literal "more of the same" to the point where much of the game... was exactly the same. I believe Nirolak even noted this months back when the game initially released in Japan: it wasn't a product that could or would expand the brand or do much to inspire an audience beyond fans, it was safe and cheap (and this has been a large part of the problem with many series in Japan now and a common point of discussion).
I mean, its actually sort of funny/ironic that for all of the "the west will save it", Bravely Default was actually one of the few Japanese titles to actually make it west and do very, very well in foreign markets. Most titles awaiting saving/saving *pending* are struggling to get haflway to triples and are sharing a bed with #FE (or below it, depending how you ballpark Aqua's numbers on it)...
DQIX did 4.5m in Japan and 1.1m in the west. If DQXI matches that it could outsell FFXV if the game does as badly as some seem to think it will. And really DQXI might even sell more than DQIX overall given it's now multiplatform.
Jon Carter
Member
I think Stories 3DS will sell over 500k, well over that if the game is very good. But I don't see it selling a million on 3DS alone.
I just don't see a world where a core oriented RPG is going to be huge in both Japan and the West in 2016+. The taste has just diverged so much and consoles are in heavy decline in Japan while handhelds are the same overseas.
I agree, and that's the whole problem. You don't become a major success in the West without appealing to people who also like GTA, sports games, and FPSes like CoD/Battlefield.
There's a reason major WRPGs look suspiciously like shooters and open world action-adventure games.
I would consider one selling 2x the units to be "easily outselling"
FFXV-II, FFXV-III, FFVIIr episodes... we will see as much FFXVI in 2020 as we see KH3 now.
***
All these talks about BD makes me think about TWEWY2.
I still expect ~5 million worldwide for Final Fantasy XV.
That list is a bit weird.
First, some numbers Are Sold in, while others Are Sold through.
Second, some Are very old numbers, like Bloodborne ( sep 2015), it is surely well Over 2 Million now after The New Version + usual Holidays sales, while others numbers Are seriusly just a guess...
That list is a bit weird.
First, some numbers Are Sold in, while others Are Sold through.
Second, some Are very old numbers, like Bloodborne ( sep 2015), it is surely well Over 2 Million now after The New Version + usual Holidays sales, while others numbers Are seriusly just a guess...
Well thats just what the market looks like - they messed up a lot of good will with the FF main series last gen and Versus/XV has been a production mess so far. Even a perfect FF game would have a hard time selling more than 1.5m right now.
SE has been in damage control mode for the last 2 years for that game - throwing everything they have (demos, animes, mobilegames, shortmovies etc.) so somehow change the fact that will underperform.
Versus as a spin-off last gen would have worked better - i just dont feel like FFXV is the right response for the IP after they messed it up so bad last gen. XV sounds like a game you drop when the IP is already quite popular to begin with, not when people are already doubting its relevance.
Thanks...so anyone knows how this compares to the YW2 height of the anime ?
YW3 will crawl his way to 1.3M, FFXV will barely to sell above 1m and Persona 5 will get to 800k-ish when it all said and done.
In it's prime when YW2 came out the anime was hitting 6-7%
Thanks, End of an era indeed - well at least the mobile apps should generate solid income for the next couple months.
wait, you expect 1.3 million for YW3 lifetime?
I even had trouble picturing YW 3 reaching 1.3million LTD here
In 2 weeks' time.
There's a hidden "00" beside the first item, and its price is 930yen, so 93,000?
DriftingSpirit
Member
I figured the gap would be much bigger with the way you worded that lol.
So you're one of those thinking FFXV will do ~500K LTD and YW3 will do ~1M LTD?
I don't disagree but if FFXV faces a massive decline in Japan, western sales won't stay flat from XIII.
As I said earlier, I'm not personally expecting it to do well. I just think there's a theoretical product you could make that succeeds in the burgeoning overseas RPG market while not making a huge impact in Japan.
We actually have a good example of that with Dark Souls and even Fire Emblem is pretty stacked toward the overseas market.
Looking at FFXV though, I see a product that really wants to succeed everywhere, but has awkward clashes with consumer taste in each market instead. I'm assuming they're hoping to power through that on brand power, but I don't think that's really there anymore.
It's a last publicly stated number list that lets us see what the bottom is for reported RPG numbers and get a sense for where a game might want to hit in a broad sense for the type of numbers Square Enix would ever consider sharing.
I guess I could wave a magic wand around instead and magically hack all their databases to figure out an exact sales number for them, or I could ballpark what a multiplatform RPG's trajectory looks like and then look at the most similar case using extra details if/when Square Enix actually does share some data. The general trend here though is huge, growing success with an eventual floor of around 5 million for major $60 console RPGs. There's a huge gap once we start getting to stuff like Risen, but those are games with very different economics.
I had Bloodborne in there so we can see an exclusive RPG near launch for future potential Horizon questions.
I made this before The Division though so we could add yet another game in the 5-10 bucket and it had over 4 million in the launch day shipment.
Edit:
Oh I think I get what people keep freaking out about.
I don't care about the stack ranking here. That's totally whatever. It's the sales trend and the health of the genre.
GhostTrick
Banned
The main problem this game is facing is unfocused developpement and budget. Movie, OVA, smaller downloadable titles. It's going to have a lot of troubles to break even.
If their goal is to break even instead of to restore the Final Fantasy brand to prominence then they've already thrown in the towel and will presumably be making the next game with a 150 person team and a 3 year development cycle while hoping to ship 2-3 million units as it fades into obscurity.
Tabata has stated the team's aspiration as making the best selling Final Fantasy ever though, so I'm guessing their goal is prominence.
Media Create:
New3DS LL 24,123
PS4 16,469
Vita 10,005
New3DS 6,403
Wii U 4,435
PS3 1,120
3DS 804
3DS LL 219
Xbox One 45
Etrian Odyssey V: 92k
Dragon Ball Fusions: 77k
New3DS LL 24,123
PS4 16,469
Vita 10,005
New3DS 6,403
Wii U 4,435
PS3 1,120
3DS 804
3DS LL 219
Xbox One 45
Etrian Odyssey V: 92k
Dragon Ball Fusions: 77k