Two sequels won't create that identity.
It's a 40% drop. It has to do something for the baseline. As noted, we're seeing a sudden drop in DS sales, so that alone must add another 3-6k, and the drop itself must add something too. Before that cut, it actually looked like the baseline was rising a bit. There's just no way it won't have a baseline higher than before. It's completely illogical. If there were 5-7 notable 3DS games coming out this holiday, maybe it could survive after this holiday. However, if the price cut has no effect on the baseline, that means that it probably won't affect holiday sales. If that's the case, Vita might eat it alive and it'll be over.