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[kswiston]

They're still below the million copies, and not new IPs

1 million copies is a pretty unfair goal post. Since the PSP took off in 2007, the only third party games to pass 1 million copies on the DS were Dragon Quest titles (most of which probably would have passed 1 million on the PSP as well), Professor Layton (1 and 2?) and Izuma Eleven 2 and 3.

You make it seem like 1 million + in Japan for a third party title (outside of Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy) is typical.

 

[walking fiend]

1 million copies is a pretty unfair goal post. Since the PSP took off in 2007, the only third party games to pass 1 million copies on the DS were Dragon Quest titles (most of which probably would have passed 1 million on the PSP as well), Professor Layton (1 and 2?) and Izuma Eleven 2 and 3.

You make it seem like 1 million + in Japan for a third party title (outside of Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy) is typical.

The problem is that sony has no 1st party million seller either, while Nintendo has more than all the other titles combined.

 

[test_account]

I think that kswiston has a good point though. For a new IP to be successful, it doesnt have to sell close to a million copies, regardless if it is 1st party or 3rd party. If a new IPs sells like around 100k, that can still be a great success. So i wouldnt say that it is a problem that games doesnt reach 1 million copies sold, and 1 million copies sold is indeed not typical for new IPs.

 

[electroplankton]

Indeed.
But PSP is a 18 million installed base console in Japan, almost at PS1 levels. I just stated that software wise is not successful as it should be (so the GBA was). It has Monster Hunter which can pull multi-million sales, then some titles barely at a million copies (Square Enix titles mostly) and very few titles (again, compared to the installed base and the momentum the console is having) between 300k and 500k units sold, even if there are a lot of titles in the 100k-200k range, which is a very good thing.
Moreover, there's the lack of new successful IPs, that DS had, from both first and third parties and in every range (not necessary to sell a million copies but let's how many new IPs / series are born on PSP); I do think Nintendo should be included in the argument, since it's a software house as well, and nothing has prevented Sony to develop seriously on PSP, but it seems it had failed quite much given the poor results of Gran Turismo and the second Hot Shot Golf (compared to the first one).
But these are problems in avery positive situation.

 

[Yeshua]

[PS3] Hardware (SCE) - 45.000
[PS3] Tales of Xillia (Bandai Namco) - 450.000
[PS3] Resident Evil: Revival Selection (Capcom) - 50.000
[PS3] Resistance 3 (SCE) - 35.000

 

[Aru]

[PS3] Hardware (SCE) - 80k
[PS3] Tales of Xillia (Bandai Namco) - 235k
[PS3] Resident Evil: Revival Selection (Capcom) - 6k
[PS3] Resistance 3 (SCE) - 8.5k

 

[Lance Bone Path]

The problem is that sony has no 1st party million seller either, while Nintendo has more than all the other titles combined.

Nintendo can grow their platform but how they've done it in the past doesn't seem to make the platform more attractive in direct proportion to the growth of the base.

That makes the situation sound worse for third parties on Nintendo platforms. If you assume something like the Pareto distribution holds true for videogame sales, Nintendo is crowding out the top of its platform and making it harder for third parties to win the proverbial lottery. This is significant for major third parties that don't have a currently mega-popular franchise ready.

When you compare the sales tail end of one platform with the sales tail end of another platform (which is where the majority of third party game sales will reside) and if you can assume the user demographics for the bases are similar, the relative difference in the size of the base probably has to differ by something like at least 10x to be significant. This aspect is more important for smaller third parties.

 

[Dash Kappei]

[PS3] Hardware (SCE) - 54.321
[PS3] Tales of Xillia (Bandai Namco) - 401.234
[PS3] Resident Evil: Revival Selection (Capcom) - 42.345
[PS3] Resistance 3 (SCE) - 28.765

 

[Chris1964]

Nintendo can grow their platform but how they've done it in the past doesn't seem to make the platform more attractive in direct proportion to the growth of the base.

That makes the situation sound worse for third parties on Nintendo platforms. If you assume something like the Pareto distribution holds true for videogame sales, Nintendo is crowding out the top of its platform and making it harder for third parties to win the proverbial lottery. This is significant for major third parties that don't have a currently mega-popular franchise ready.

When you compare the sales tail end of one platform with the sales tail end of another platform (which is where the majority of third party game sales will reside) and if you can assume the user demographics for the bases are similar, the relative difference in the size of the base probably has to differ by something like at least 10x to be significant. This aspect is more important for smaller third parties.

Umm no, DS golden ages weren't golden only for Nintendo.

 

[Lance Bone Path]

Umm no, DS golden ages weren't golden only for Nintendo.

Didn't say that. I'm saying Nintendo platforms are probably not going to be more attractive (for third parties) than a platform of "similar" (as in within a magnitude) size from practically any competitor.

 

[Chris1964]

Didn't say that. I'm saying Nintendo platforms are probably not going to be more attractive than a platform of "similar" (as in within a magnitude) size from practically any competitor.

Since DS sold more third party software the ratio first/third party doesn't really matter.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

[PS3] Hardware (SCE) - 38,000
[PS3] Tales of Xillia (Bandai Namco) - 412,000
[PS3] Resident Evil: Revival Selection (Capcom) - 57,000
[PS3] Resistance 3 (SCE) - 21,000

 

[Celine]

Didn't say that. I'm saying Nintendo platforms are probably not going to be more attractive (for third parties) than a platform of "similar" (as in within a magnitude) size from practically any competitor.

Agree , at parity of conditions ( more or less ) publishers will always prefer Sony or MS.

 

[electroplankton]

Agree , at parity of conditions ( more or less ) publishers will always prefer Sony or MS.

In Japan? No way

 

[walking fiend]

Didn't say that. I'm saying Nintendo platforms are probably not going to be more attractive (for third parties) than a platform of "similar" (as in within a magnitude) size from practically any competitor.

Not really, a lot of games wouldn't sell good at all on the demographics that other platforms represent. Nintendo systems build a demographic that is interested in titles such as Professor Layton, Just Dance, Epic Mickey, etc. While PS2 gave rise to series such as DMC and GTA, etc. It is not only a matter of installed based and the game, it is the harmony between the games and the interests of that demographic. That is why I don't expect many games that are traditionally on the DS, move to PSP, regardless of how good overall performance of PSP is; because, the demographic won't buy those games.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Agree , at parity of conditions ( more or less ) publishers will always prefer Sony or MS.

What parity of conditions are you including?

Ease of development, liason with first party publishers, ease of approval process, licensing fees, comarketing support, development cash, exclusivity cash, system capability, system audience demographics by age and gender, software ecosystem, and many other things are all conditions.

If all of those things were exactly equal, I don't think publishers would prefer anything. But they're not, even if a few of the public-facing conditions are.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Not really, a lot of games wouldn't sell good at all on the demographics that other platforms represent. Nintendo systems build a demographic that is interested in titles such as Professor Layton, Just Dance, Epic Mickey, etc. While PS2 gave rise to series such as DMC and GTA, etc. It is not only a matter of installed based and the game, it is the harmony between the games and the interests of that demographic. That is why I don't expect many games that are traditionally on the DS, move to PSP, regardless of how good overall performance of PSP is; because, the demographic won't buy those games.

Yeah, it's a difficult comparison because Nintendo with their blue ocean strategy is essentially targeting a different market much of the time.
Sony just can't reach through to the kids market.

Really would it ever be possible on psp for these titles to do more then a million(which they did on ds)

 

[electroplankton]

good memories!

Anyway, would it possible to have a 4,5 million copies Dragon Quest on PSP?

 

[Takao]

What is that SEGA game? I have never seen it before (obviously I know of Tamagotchi).

good memories!

Anyway, would it possible to have a 4,5 million copies Dragon Quest on PSP?

If it was a mainline entry, probably 3-4 million.

DQ is a game everyone plays, and PSP is cheap enough to allow those who don't own one to jump in.

 

[walking fiend]

Yeah, it's a difficult comparison because Nintendo with their blue ocean strategy is essential targeting a different market much of the time.
Sony just can't reach through to the kids market.

Really would it ever be possible on psp for these titles to do more then a millon(which they did on ds)

Last demographic chart I remember, not only more kids owned DS, but more adults did so, and average demographic of DS was in early 20s, while for PSP it was late teens. Though now that the smartphones are kicking in, I believe Nintendo market is being eaten from both sides, specially the older side I suppose.

 

[Aru]

good memories!

Anyway, would it possible to have a 4,5 million copies Dragon Quest on PSP?

Could be. 3-3,5 millions would be more realistic for week one, but 4,5 M LTD is feasible.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Last demographic chart I remember, not only more kids owned DS, but more adults did so, and average demographic of DS was in early 20s, while for PSP it was late teens.

If you want I can find the charts, but it's what I was saying with blue ocean strategy, Nintendo has an unusually high amount of seniors with a ds(thanks to training boom) while psp has almost none, it skews the charts higher.

Psp has much less younger generation, aka thoese late teens are not going to be buying love and berry.

 

[Celine]

What is that SEGA game? I have never seen it before (obviously I know of Tamagotchi).

Love & Berry DS.

Those two were some of the first third-party million seller on DS.

good memories!

Anyway, would it possible to have a 4,5 million copies Dragon Quest on PSP?

It would have sold 3/4 million units anyway but I have doubts it could top the DS version that's the best selling in the series with 4,2 million.

EDIT:

What parity of conditions are you including?

Ease of development, liason with first party publishers, ease of approval process, licensing fees, comarketing support, development cash, exclusivity cash, system capability, system audience demographics by age and gender, software ecosystem, and many other things are all conditions.

If all of those things were exactly equal, I don't think publishers would prefer anything. But they're not, even if a few of the public-facing conditions are.

Eh eh I know I was generic.
For development/exclusivity cash almost every software house would develop something even if it was the game.com but we know that Nintendo is reluctant to do it with some exception ( always geared toward their japanese partners ).
Since how Nintendo operates , unless publishers on average gains more profits from Nintendo eco-system compared to MS and Sony ones combined ( NES/PS2 style ), third-party will favor more "open to third-party" manufacturers like Sony or MS if only because Nintendo ( a software house that owns an impressive list of king genres all with common traits and appeal ) is single-handedly the main driving force for Nintendo systems penetration.
I think publishers will always prefer to not compete seriously with such a cumbersome competitor unless they had to.

Nintendo DNA was forged in the course of many decades by this man:

Spoiler

Long live to the President

 

[electroplankton]

Could be. 3-3,5 millions would be more realistic for week one, but 4,5 M LTD is feasible.

?
more than 3 million the first two days? No way.
Anyway I don't think it'd be possible, Dragon Quest benefited a lot from wide userbases and at that time DS was doubling PSP; I see more likely VIII-levels (3,5 million) but 4,5 was truly out of scale.

 

[Spiegel]

Yeah, it's a difficult comparison because Nintendo with their blue ocean strategy is essential targeting a different market much of the time.
Sony just can't reach through to the kids market.

Really would it ever be possible on psp for these titles to do more then a millon(which they did on ds)

I don't think so but I don't think those would sell a million on any console. These games were released at the highest point of the whole expanded audience craze and it shows. Sequels and similar games didn't get anywhere near close to a million.


Tekken on PS or Dynasty Warriors on PS2 are other examples of million selling games released at the highest point of a certain trend

If you want I can find the charts, but it's what I was saying with blue ocean strategy, Nintendo has an unusually high amount of seniors with a ds(thanks to training boom) while psp has almost none, it skews the charts higher.

Psp has much less younger generation, aka thoese late teens are not going to be buying love and berry.

Most retailer blogs say that the younger generation is starting to be a main driving force on psp.

But there's no denying that the younger demographic buys more Nintendo consoles.

 

[Alrus]

Could be. 3-3,5 millions would be more realistic for week one, but 4,5 M LTD is feasible.

But the biggest first week ever is 2.6 million...

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Most retailer blog say that the younger generation is starting to be a main driving force on psp.

Yeah, I've read that too with the rise of little battlers etc... still for the majority of the life(even now) young children are not anywhere near a significant amount of psp users.

 

[walking fiend]

If you want I can find the charts, but it's what I was saying with blue ocean strategy, Nintendo has an unusually high amount of seniors with a ds(thanks to training boom) while psp has almost none, it skews the charts higher.

Psp has much less younger generation, aka thoese late teens are not going to be buying love and berry.

I actually was building upon your point, that why blue strategy makes game sells on DS that wouldn't on PSP.

Also, I believe one of the main reasons Nintendo hasn't gone down yet, is that not only their games, but also their hardwares respond to a certain market within both developers and players that other systems simply don't. Namely, they are cheap, durable and simplistic, specilized in gaming, technically are not demanding, etc.

While at the same time I believe the reason Wii is going down sooner than others, is that they forgot the mid range of age span.

Most retailer blogs say that the younger generation is starting to be a main driving force on psp.

I believe it has got to do with the price of the system for buyers and also the development cost of the games on the other hand for developers.

 

[Takao]

Yeah, I've read that too with the rise of little battlers etc... still for the majority of the life(even now) young children are not anywhere near a significant amount of psp users.

Huh, this seems to be happening in Europe as well. Invizimals, which is aimed at kids crossed 1 million units sold. I don't think that could've happened if that was released in 2006.

This explains why SCEE has a bunch of kid oriented PSP games in development, and with third parties (for example there's a Cars 2 video game that's being developed in Spain for PSP that likely will not be released outside of EU).

I guess it's the hand me down syndrome that platforms get as they age.

 

[Datschge]

Regarding the Xillia first week sale predictions: Aren't most of you buying too much into the hype? Many predictions put the first week sale higher than the total sales of any Tales game this generation as well as higher than most Tales games' first week sales last gen. Famitsu has Destiny 2's first week at 498,142 which is the highest first week for a Tales game ever (we don't have numbers for Destiny PS1, but I doubt it was as big out of the gate), the next biggest first week of a Tales game we have Famitsu numbers for is Rebirth at 372,767...

 

[Road]

"Tales of" series by first week sales (Famitsu data)

{2002-11-28}[b] 498,142[/b] / 762,861- [PS2] Tales of Destiny 2
{1997-12-23}[b] 450,099[/b] / 829,618- [PS1] Tales of Destiny
{2000-11-30}[b] 384,790[/b] / 669,248- [PS1] Tales of Eternia
{2004-12-16}[b] 372,767[/b] / 596,493- [PS2] Tales of Rebirth
{2005-12-15}[b] 368,316[/b] / 556,465- [PS2] Tales of the Abyss
{2004-09-22}[b] 269,073[/b] / 394,312- [PS2] Tales of Symphonia
{1998-12-23}[b] 267,543[/b] / 550,394- [PS1] Tales of Phantasia
{2006-11-30}[b] 256,288[/b] / 367,998- [PS2] Tales of Destiny
{2005-08-25}[b] 242,003[/b] / 343,332- [PS2] Tales of Legendia
{2009-09-17}[b] 227,506[/b] / 390,523- [PS3] Tales of Vesperia
{2010-12-02}[b] 219,921[/b] / 330,524- [PS3] Tales of Graces F
{2011-02-10}[b] 212,649[/b] / 275,202- [PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 3
{2009-01-29}[b] 210,297[/b] / 317,730- [PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 2
{2003-08-29}[b] 183,527[/b] / 322,779- [GCN] Tales of Symphonia
{2009-08-06}[b] 153,366[/b] / 238,200- [PSP] Tales of Vs.
{2008-06-26}[b] 151,138[/b] / 212,408- [WII] Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World
{2009-12-10}[b] 143,309[/b] / 212,769- [WII] Tales of Graces
{2008-12-18}[b] 141,610[/b] / 261,751- [NDS] Tales of Hearts: Anime Movie / CG Movie Edition
{2010-08-05}[b] 114,199[/b] / 180,650- [PSP] Tales of Phantasia: Narikiri Dungeon X
{2007-12-06}[b] 106,733[/b] / 246,420- [NDS] Tales of Innocence
{2008-08-07}[b] 101,272[/b] / 204,305- [360] Tales of Vesperia
{2008-01-31}[b]  97,476[/b] / 142,301- [PS2] Tales of Destiny: Director's Cut
{2006-12-21}[b]  97,156[/b] / 214,128- [PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology
{2002-10-25}[b]  86,587[/b] / 186,413- [GBA] Tales of the World: Narikiri Dungeon 2
{1995-12-15}[b]  84,373[/b] / 228,738- [SFC] Tales of Phantasia***
{2006-10-26}[b]  83,298[/b] / 205,541- [NDS] Tales of the Tempest
{2005-03-03}[b]  74,630[/b] / 193,541- [PSP] Tales of Eternia
{2011-06-30}[b]  68,218[/b] /  97,822- [3DS] Tales of the Abyss
{2005-01-06}[b]  67,535[/b] / 113,414- [GBA] Tales of the World: Narikiri Dungeon 3
{2007-02-15}[b]  65,503[/b] / 114,757- [PSP] Tales of Destiny 2
{2006-09-07}[b]  65,417[/b] / 112,367- [PSP] Tales of Phantasia: Full Voice Edition
{2000-11-10}[b]  64,242[/b] / 154,602- [NGB] Tales of Phantasia: Narikiri Dungeon
{2003-08-01}[b]  55,970[/b] / 135,663- [GBA] Tales of Phantasia
{2002-01-31}[b]  51,611[/b] /  88,948- [PS1] Tales of Fandom Vol. 1
{2007-06-28}[b]  45,354[/b] /  86,337- [PS2] Tales of Fandom Vol. 2: Luke / Tia
{2008-03-19}[b]  44,888[/b] /  83,016- [PSP] Tales of Rebirth
{2003-03-07}[b]  14,828[/b] /  52,102- [GBA] Tales of the World: Summoner's Lineage

***Famitsu used to publish points instead of sales in their ranks, and those figures are guesses of the units.

No "best" versions included.

 

[walking fiend]

Regarding the Xillia first week sale predictions: Aren't most of you buying too much into the hype? Many predictions put the first week sale higher than the total sales of any Tales game this generation as well as higher than most Tales games' first week sales last gen. Famitsu has Destiny 2's first week at 498,142 which is the highest first week for a Tales game ever (we don't have numbers for Destiny PS1, but I doubt it was as big out of the gate), the next biggest first week of a Tales game we have Famitsu numbers for is Rebirth at 372,767...

I am not doing based on that, I am basing it solely on Amazon ranking and how similarly ranked PS3 games have sold.

 

[Alrus]

I didn't know Graces barely passed Symphonia 2 in sales... that's depressing :/

 

[test_account]

Indeed.
But PSP is a 18 million installed base console in Japan, almost at PS1 levels. I just stated that software wise is not successful as it should be (so the GBA was). It has Monster Hunter which can pull multi-million sales, then some titles barely at a million copies (Square Enix titles mostly) and very few titles (again, compared to the installed base and the momentum the console is having) between 300k and 500k units sold, even if there are a lot of titles in the 100k-200k range, which is a very good thing.

I think that it can sometimes be a bit difficult to compare newer systems to older systems side by side in terms of how succesful they could be because the market changes over time. Back in the GBA days, the GBA was pretty much the only really serious handheld gaming system. Today you have more competition, especially with all the smartphones out there.

Moreover, there's the lack of new successful IPs, that DS had, from both first and third parties and in every range (not necessary to sell a million copies but let's how many new IPs / series are born on PSP); I do think Nintendo should be included in the argument, since it's a software house as well, and nothing has prevented Sony to develop seriously on PSP, but it seems it had failed quite much given the poor results of Gran Turismo and the second Hot Shot Golf (compared to the first one).
But these are problems in avery positive situation.

Do you mean IPs that are still relevant today? If so, which IPs that started on DS are still quite relevant today? I can think of Inazuma Eleven and Layton, but nothing more (i'm sure i forgot several). I wonder the same about PSP in comparison

EDIT: With "relevant" i'm mostly thinking about sequels that are still being made and still sell a decent amount of copies.

 

[Chris1964]

Black Rock Shooter shipments exceeded 200k.

http://twitter.com/#!/nihonfalcom/status/110220842344005632

 

[Grimmy]

Black Rock Shooter shipments exceeded 200k.

http://twitter.com/#!/nihonfalcom/status/110220842344005632

very nice They sure recovered from their last game, which was a critical bomb.

 

[Spiegel]

Chris got confused.
The game is Legend of Heroes: Ao No Kiseki, not BRS.

 

[Grimmy]

Chris got confused.
The game is Legend of Heroes: Ao No Kiseki, not BRS.

Haha you're right. It's Nihon Falcom's twitter!

 

[saichi]

Could be. 3-3,5 millions would be more realistic for week one, but 4,5 M LTD is feasible.

couldn't be further from the truth.

 

[hosannainexcelsis]

very nice They sure recovered from their last game, which was a critical bomb.

Disregarding the mistake, Black Rock Shooter appears to have been a critical bomb as well judging by user reviews on amazon.co.jp and elsewhere. Perhaps not quite as much as Final Promise Story, but still worse than Imageepoch needed. I doubt they'll last another year as a publisher.

 

[Alrus]

Disregarding the mistake, Black Rock Shooter appears to have been a critical bomb as well judging by user reviews on amazon.co.jp and elsewhere. Perhaps not quite as much as Final Promise Story, but still worse than Imageepoch needed. I doubt they'll last another year as a publisher.

I think they'll be fine, other publishers seems to be doing okay with the same kind of sales or even lower. As long as they don't get too big, they can live as a semi-niche publisher. I don't think they'll ever grow much further though.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Disregarding the mistake, Black Rock Shooter appears to have been a critical bomb as well judging by user reviews on amazon.co.jp and elsewhere. Perhaps not quite as much as Final Promise Story, but still worse than Imageepoch needed. I doubt they'll last another year as a publisher.

We'll see, They admit that final promise story was plagued with problems and wanted to delay it, but had no money. BRS has sold well enough for them to last for another few games.

Also Seventh Dragon was actually delayed, so let's see how that does critically.

 

[Alrus]

Oh by the way, when talking about new franchises that did relatively big numbers on the PSP, didn't God Eater sell really well? (like 600k+ copies sold, not couting Burst?)

 

[Brazil]

Oh by the way, when talking about new franchises that did relatively big numbers on the PSP, didn't God Eater sell really well? (like 600k+ copies sold, not couting Burst?)

Yes, and, combined with Burst, it broke 1 million.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

I didn't know Graces barely passed Symphonia 2 in sales... that's depressing :/

ps3 version is over 100k more.

 

[Road]

Software Sales

     Total      Units     Titles       Avg.    Tie Ratio
NDS              168.2       1129        149          5.1
PSP               59.3        771         77          3.4


 1st Party      Units     Titles       Avg.    Tie Ratio
NDS               89.6        122        734          2.7
PSP                5.8         77         76          0.3


 3rd Party      Units     Titles       Avg.    Tie Ratio
NDS               78.6       1007       78.0          2.4
PSP               53.4        694       77.0          3.0


3rd Party**     Units     Titles       Avg.    Tie Ratio
NDS               66.8        999       66.9          2.0
PSP               41.2        688       59.9          2.3






- "Best" and first releases were counted as one title.
- "Units" in million.
- "Avg." in thousands.
- "3rd Party**" = NDS without "Dragon Quest" (~11.8 million) and PSP without "Monster Hunter" (~12.2 million)
- All data from Famitsu sales figures I have.

 

[donny2112]

- "3rd Party**" = NDS without "Dragon Quest" (~11.8 million) and PSP without "Monster Hunter" (~12.2 million)

Interesting choice. Seems pretty fair.

 

[kswiston]

Looks like DQX is Wii and Wii U. Curious to see what that will mean for hardware sales.

 

[AniHawk]

Looks like DQX is Wii and Wii U. Curious to see what that will mean for hardware sales.

unless there's a major single player component, not much. if this is very heavily a mmo, then it'll probably not sell a whole lot on the software front either (compared to what people have come to expect from the series).

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Is this pretty much the riskiest move Square could have done in this entire generation other than like making DQX 360 exclusive?