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Media Create Sales: Week 35, 2011 (Aug 29 - Sep 04)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
AdventureRacing
Member
Datschge said:
This seems like a big question to me. If the 3DS does explode in sales (which seems likely) will nintendo be able to cater for that?
FINALFANTASYDOG
Member
Truth101 said:
The majority of popular games top the chart right when their per-orders open(every is rushing in to get in the pre-order), watching over the few months and seeing if it maintains that top spot is far more important
thestopsign
Member
I think if Nintendo ends the holiday season north of 4,000 to 4,500k units sold for the 3DS LTD, they should be pretty happy and will probably have shortages through the first part of the winter at least, with continuing strong sales.
The strong software schedule continues into 2012 though with Resident Evil, Animal Crossing, Kid Icarus, Metal Gear Solid 3DS, and Luigi's Mansion all being early 2012 titles. They definitely set themselves up to be in a really strong position vs. PSV no matter what Sony throws out at them. Unfortunately at this point I'm not sure if Sony is Nintendo's main opponent as the investors certainly think it's the mobile sector that is the bigger threat to future profitability.
If a revision is coming, I think I see a release in time for Golden Week in early May or maybe a mid-June release next year along with a mid-to-high tier game. It definitely won't be announced until after the holiday season, and probably will be within a month or two of the actual release.
Edit: As for sales of the games during the holiday season. They might not all have the high opening weeks that we come to expect of each of those franchises, but they should have insane legs in the following weeks if the hardware reaches the 400-500k echelon that the NDS did in 2005.
My Predictions: (FW - YTD - LTD)
Monster Hunter 3G (700k - 1200k - 1900k)
Mario Kart 7 (400k - 1100k - 3000k) I guess the LTD in this case is WAY far down the line.
Mario Land 3DS (250k - 850k - 1400k) I'm not sure which way this will go, NSMB or SMG, so I'm throwing it in the middle.
Inazuma Eleven GO!: (150k - 325k - 500k)
Love Plus 3DS (175k - 300k - 350k) Growing franchise from what I can tell.
Slime Mori Mori 3 (80k - 330k - 350k)
Just pulling numbers out of my ass. These are really dependent on how well the system does HW-wise and could fluctuate greatly if the hardware booms or not. I'd like to see what other people think the software is gonna be (I love long range software predictions even if they are hard accurately judge).
The strong software schedule continues into 2012 though with Resident Evil, Animal Crossing, Kid Icarus, Metal Gear Solid 3DS, and Luigi's Mansion all being early 2012 titles. They definitely set themselves up to be in a really strong position vs. PSV no matter what Sony throws out at them. Unfortunately at this point I'm not sure if Sony is Nintendo's main opponent as the investors certainly think it's the mobile sector that is the bigger threat to future profitability.
If a revision is coming, I think I see a release in time for Golden Week in early May or maybe a mid-June release next year along with a mid-to-high tier game. It definitely won't be announced until after the holiday season, and probably will be within a month or two of the actual release.
Edit: As for sales of the games during the holiday season. They might not all have the high opening weeks that we come to expect of each of those franchises, but they should have insane legs in the following weeks if the hardware reaches the 400-500k echelon that the NDS did in 2005.
My Predictions: (FW - YTD - LTD)
Monster Hunter 3G (700k - 1200k - 1900k)
Mario Kart 7 (400k - 1100k - 3000k) I guess the LTD in this case is WAY far down the line.
Mario Land 3DS (250k - 850k - 1400k) I'm not sure which way this will go, NSMB or SMG, so I'm throwing it in the middle.
Inazuma Eleven GO!: (150k - 325k - 500k)
Love Plus 3DS (175k - 300k - 350k) Growing franchise from what I can tell.
Slime Mori Mori 3 (80k - 330k - 350k)
Just pulling numbers out of my ass. These are really dependent on how well the system does HW-wise and could fluctuate greatly if the hardware booms or not. I'd like to see what other people think the software is gonna be (I love long range software predictions even if they are hard accurately judge).
thestopsign said:
FW - YTD - 12 mos
P)Note: YTD would be to week ending December 25 (i.e. Famitsu's reckoning).
Monster Hunter 3G (600k - 1100k - 1900k)
Mario Kart 7 (220k - 650k - 1500k)
Mario Land 3DS (350k - 750k - 1700k)
Inazuma Eleven GO!: (300k - 450k - 800k)
Love Plus 3DS (150k - 250k - 350k)
Slime Mori Mori 3 (84k - 200k - 350k)
Surprised that the Vita is launching well into December. Being so close to the release of MH3G, and two weeks after Mario Kart 7 (as well as the same week as Inazuma Eleven) should make things real interesting, though.
Edit: Also seems like there's going to be a massive marketing buildup for 3G, if they're already doing ads. With Nintendo helping to pay for it, no doubt.
Edit: Also seems like there's going to be a massive marketing buildup for 3G, if they're already doing ads. With Nintendo helping to pay for it, no doubt.
electroplankton
Banned
A few notes:
-I understood why Nintendo has moved Kid Icarus to 2012 in Japan; with so many well-known IPs, it would be nonsense to launch it before the end of the year. It'll be out when 3DS will have a higher installed base without great names around. Good.
-PSVita will be launched in between Kart and Monster Hunter... Well, I do hope Japanese are waiting for it a lot, otherwise I can't see how it can sell during this holidays; moreover, its line-up is nothing special, quite expected, maybe Tales fans will have a reason to buy it because of Innocence remake? Otherwise they'll wait until some more games will be out.
-I can see New Love Plus sell well, since it introduces so many features and improvements that all fans will be forced to buy it! It can move some hardware, even if it'll be difficult to identify the effect, the same week of MH...
-I understood why Nintendo has moved Kid Icarus to 2012 in Japan; with so many well-known IPs, it would be nonsense to launch it before the end of the year. It'll be out when 3DS will have a higher installed base without great names around. Good.
-PSVita will be launched in between Kart and Monster Hunter... Well, I do hope Japanese are waiting for it a lot, otherwise I can't see how it can sell during this holidays; moreover, its line-up is nothing special, quite expected, maybe Tales fans will have a reason to buy it because of Innocence remake? Otherwise they'll wait until some more games will be out.
-I can see New Love Plus sell well, since it introduces so many features and improvements that all fans will be forced to buy it! It can move some hardware, even if it'll be difficult to identify the effect, the same week of MH...
pseudocaesar
Member
Did we ever get the Tales PS3 numbers?
So watching recent developments, how big of a moneyhat must Nintendo have paid to Capcom?
Because completely cutting out of the picture the sure bet (PSP) and seemingly going exclusive to another console, at least short/medium term, was not something expected.
I'm not saying that there's anything wrong with the decision or the moneyhat (if it did happen) btw. Just curious.
Or I don't know, maybe it's just that Capcom wants MH to be a big worldwide franchise and partnering with Nintendo is their best option?
Because completely cutting out of the picture the sure bet (PSP) and seemingly going exclusive to another console, at least short/medium term, was not something expected.
I'm not saying that there's anything wrong with the decision or the moneyhat (if it did happen) btw. Just curious.
Or I don't know, maybe it's just that Capcom wants MH to be a big worldwide franchise and partnering with Nintendo is their best option?
anyone else kinda get the feeling that monster hunter 3ds (3g and 4) won't do psp numbers regardless of a vita version? kinda reminds me of the tales of games selling like crazy on the ps3 versus the wii and ds. i'm not sure if the audience is going to transfer over. they might just stick with mhp3.
of course, on the flipside there's the ds dragon quest games, i guess. that series felt a lot less ingrained into sony systems though.
of course, on the flipside there's the ds dragon quest games, i guess. that series felt a lot less ingrained into sony systems though.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
cw_sasuke said:
That has to be a record. That has to be the fastest a game has ever gone from announcement to full on advertisement!
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Sadist said:
Yeah, Tri G will be limited by the small 3DS userbase at first, but it'll have very strong legs for sure and will be a huge hardware pusher!
600k-700k for the opening and 2-3 million for the LTD sounds about right.
see i don't even think hardware sales will be a big part of the issue. i'm thinking that even mh4 is going to have trouble reaching the 3-4m+ the later portable games hit.
i haven't kept up with the media create sales age in a long time though, so i'm not sure if the 3ds has what the psp mh fanbase wants or cares to have.
i haven't kept up with the media create sales age in a long time though, so i'm not sure if the 3ds has what the psp mh fanbase wants or cares to have.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Shiggy said:
The Monster Hunter Portable brand is probably dead now. No need for a redundant brand when the main console series has now come to handhelds (how could you portabalise a portable game anyway?)
AniHawk said:
It has 2nd stick/touchscreen camera controls. That is the number 1 issue with the portable games solved.
Never mind the fact that it offers the full fat Monster Hunter console experience, or that MH4 is the next mainline game either!
Shiggy said:
yeah, that's what i was wondering about (not stuff like a second stick). basically, will the desire for a new monster hunter be greater than the embarrassment of playing an uncool system? or maybe the new monster hunter will make the uncool system not uncool. or maybe they'll stick with the psp version, because hey, it's still newish and everyone has a copy.
I feel people are thinking about this the wrong way.Spiegel said:
Monster Hunter is a huge franchise. You can't just throw money at Capcom and get them to do whatever you want, they have to feel that it's a good business decision.
I think the most telling part of all of this is that it's actually Monster Hunter 4.
Judging by the concept trailer, Monster Hunter 4 wants to do things that the PSP can't handle. This means that they have to select what platform(s) to move to and then start building an audience for the game on it, in the same way that Dragon Quest spin offs come out on a platform to build an audience for a mainline title.
Monster Hunter is a game that gained its popularity through local co-op. This means that it's quite important for every person in the local co-op group to have the same platform, because if they don't, there isn't a huge amount of people on the internet ready to play with them instead. The more people that have the game on the same platform, the larger the player base is for that platform, and the easier it is for the game to rope in new players when they notice that their friends are playing the game. They don't have to worry that friend 1 owns the game on platform X and friend 2 owns the game on platform Y and then try to choose who they want to play with more, they just buy the game and know that they can play with anyone else who owns it.
Assuming Capcom wants this benefit, they have to choose which platform they want to support. In general, the top games on a platform want to have some of the best visuals on that platform. By choosing the Vita, this means that Capcom would have to heavily invest in building new art assets for the entire game, a timely and expensive process, whereas with the 3DS, they can just reuse the art assets from Monster Hunter Tri again.
Since they seem to have moved the mainline series off of consoles and on to handhelds, this also means that they will never have to recreate their art assets until Nintendo releases a new handheld, which is likely 6-8 years in the future.
Doing this allows Capcom to achieve two of their major corporate goals. The first is releasing entries in their franchises on a much more regular basis. By having every Monster Hunter game be a 3DS game based on the art assets of Monster Hunter Tri, Capcom can release mainline Monster Hunter one year, a G version the next year, and then another mainline game the year after that without having to worry about not being able to generate a large amount of content in time.
This also allows Capcom to free up a large amount of employees to work on projects for the Xbox 720/PlayStation 4 instead. Capcom has stated multiple times that they can only handle 2-3 major projects at once internally, and if their employees aren't busy making HD or near-HD quality art assets for Monster Hunter games, Capcom can use them to develop a different game instead.
Basically, putting Monster Hunter on the 3DS allows Capcom to keep making Monster Hunter games for another 6-8 years in a quick and efficient fashion without effecting any of their other projects, and since Japan - a handheld loving country - is their main target audience, putting the game on the 3DS is not going to have a negative effect on its sales in the region.
I don't think the idea of making the series bigger in the West had any notable effect on their decision at all. 3DS games are notably cheaper in the West, the Yen is way stronger than it used to be, and they've already tried to make the franchise bigger globally several times with little success. Their overwhelming focus is on how to best manage the franchise in Japan, and they feel this is the best way to do it.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Shiggy said:
The opposite is true here in the UK. I see plenty of 30-40 year old adult men and women playing DS games in public (though you do see kids as well), while PSP is played almost exclusively by male kids and teenagers (and 95% of the time, it's a football game being played)
Either way, this is useless anecdotal evidence. Nintendo's own official demographic evidence proves that DS is played by all age ranges and genders across the world. The 3DS demographic makeup is currently largely made up of 15-25 year old males (which is not surprising, considering that it has only just launched)
"That website" predicts 479k FW which is probably not too far off given the shipment numbers. What's the biggest debut for a Tales game yet?noobie said:Not yet..
you are talking about Tales of Xillia?
btw "that website" do have numbers in preview..
Will be interesting to see later today
While I think you could make a compelling argument that in many Western countries, after the aesthetic changes that came with smartphones and tablets, it will be harder to the 3DS to sell to demographics besides handheld enthusiasts and children, this isn't really an issue in Japan.Shiggy said:
The primary target audience for this device is 6-22 year olds who have been bringing their DS and/or PSP around with them for years, and still do so to this day.
Having a system that looks fairly similar to them shouldn't be a problem, since we haven't seen a movement away from dedicated handhelds in Japan.
MH is a done deal. It'll sell greatly on the 3DS. Sony better enjoy their PSP success in Japan while it lasts.
Sangokushi Touch Battle
Project N.O.E.L.S.
Little Deviants
Yuusha no Kiroku
Minna to Issho
Niconico ("launch title"...)
5 games that will never appear on these threads for being download only.
Sangokushi Touch Battle
Project N.O.E.L.S.
Little Deviants
Yuusha no Kiroku
Minna to Issho
Niconico ("launch title"...)
5 games that will never appear on these threads for being download only.
DaSorcerer7
Member
Nirolak said:
Forgot to the add Wii U, but the rest of your post sounds like the most plausible scenario to me.