I wonder if MH Tri is still in the back of their mind. 1 million initial shipment and "only" 580K sold first week. Struggled to sell the initial shipment.
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Media Create Sales: Week 36, 2013 (Sep 02 - Sep 08)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I wonder if MH Tri is still in the back of their mind. 1 million initial shipment and "only" 580K sold first week. Struggled to sell the initial shipment.
Immaculate
Banned
that poster said #4, lol
it's not going to overtake AC any time soon
blah i can't read my bad
FreedomFighter
Member
They had to know that wouldn't have been the case for a handheld numbered iteration - on 3DS at that. They're probably just pulling a Nintendo here (i.e. Fire Emblem US and New Leaf JP).
Wasn't the problem with animal crossing the fact that it needed a special cartridge?
Aquamarine
Member
Yes---NAND-based saving (which allowed Nintendo to save a massive amount of data very quickly) requires a specially-ordered chip made in advance to be present in the cartridge.
Nintendo had underestimated demand, and when they ran out of inventory, they couldn't just pump more cartridges out immediately. So, there was a retail shortage.
Nintendo are making enough cards to launch Pokemon worldwide. Capcom can get to the back of the queue.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Hey @Aquamarine, I know this has no relation to Media Create thread, but I'm a fellow Nintendo Investor as well and own a couple of shares. What do you think Nintendo's Q2 will look like? Do you think Nintendo will be able to post an operating profit as last quarter they were only able to do so with exchange gains?
airmangataosenai
Member
It didn't? When did the game end up going on PSN then?
airmangataosenai
Member
Wow. It's easy to forget how different things were back then.
If something is not on a chart, why would you count it at all?
It's because I wanted to give a picture as complete as possible, without excluding the Vita version.
Ironically, Comgnet just updated, and now that MH4 is gone from the Comgnet Top 20, guess what title appeared, at 24pt :lol
Don't worry, people, Wind Waker HD is still out of top 20, get ready
Aquamarine
Member
Net Sales:
Q1 2011 - 188,646
Q1 2012 - 93,928
Q1 2013 - 84,813
Q1 2014 - 81,458
1H 2011 - 363,160
1H 2012 - 215,738
1H 2013 - 200,994
1H 2014 - TBD
I predict no significant gain in net sales for the 1H period (Q1 + Q2) from the previous year, thanks to no major "breakout" Nintendo titles. The Q2 2014 period this year was responsible for Mario & Luigi: Dream Team, Pikmin 3, New Super Luigi U, The Wonderful 101, among others. All of these are respectable Nintendo successes, but none particularly stood out. Wind Waker HD has yet to be released in Japan, but I don't have particularly high hopes for that title.
In particular, while last quarter had Tomodachi Collection release in Japan and Animal Crossing: New Leaf release in the Americas, the success rate of the titles this quarter don't seem to be as strong. But Nintendo has a lot of residual sales from previously released 1st-party IP, so it's not "that" big of a loss.
Also, Nintendo is bound to make some good money from the blockbuster Monster Hunter 4, which could see two million units shipped by the end of Q2.
Operating Income (Loss):
Q1 2011 - 23,342
Q1 2012 - (37,712)
Q1 2013 - (10,331)
Q1 2014 - (4,924)
1H 2011 - 54,232
1H 2012 - (57,346)
1H 2013 - (29,159)
1H 2014 - TBD
Nintendo's selling, general, and administrative expenses continue to exceed gross profit, leading to consecutive, quarterly operating losses. Although Nintendo has done well in narrowing the gap with lowered cost of sales, growing FY-to-date operating losses is a fear I will continue to have in 1H, due to my prediction of flat-to-declining YOY net sales.
But when we're looking at the company as a whole, we should be more focused on Iwata's FY targets and the yearly progression of Nintendo's business. Thankfully, in terms of net income, Nintendo still has positive non-operating income (like foreign exchange gains) on their side.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
True, Q1 was accompanied with many first-party titles which is where the bulk of their money is generated, hence the lower loss and the cost-cutting measures from the 3DS. Q2 was a bit soft but should be able to collect sizable royalties from MH4 as you mentioned. Furthermore, I expect shipments of 400k and 1.8 million of Wii U and 3DS hardware respectively in Q2. Software sales should be at 10 million and 3 for 3DS and Wii U respectively.
What I am more interested of course is Q3 with the releases of Pokemon and the 2DS. Regardless of the initial response to the 2DS, it is one of the best ideas Nintendo had since 2011. Although at a lower price, I expect the 2DS to be more profitable compared to the 3DS family due to their cost-cutting measures.
I think it's pretty obvious Iwata will not be able to achieve the 1 Billion profit. I'm expecting operating income to be 250 million - Net Income 500 million. I don't think investors would react to positively to the news (for Iwata's case) but I don't expect Nintendo shares to drop either as it seems that the stock market has weighed that possibility.
On a side note, why has Nintendo not sold the Seattle Mariners? I mean they could easily sell it for 300 million lol I love Nintendo but sometimes I don't get them ahhaha
pieatorium
Member
I dont think you'll see 400k wiiu shipped in q2, sales haven't really gone anywhere compared to q1. EU is still extremely weak for the system, and still likely to not have sold through past initial launch numbers (obviously certain places will need some restock).
its still a bit early to be shipping in units for any holiday movement aswel.
its still a bit early to be shipping in units for any holiday movement aswel.
Nintendo should invest in a better baseball team, like the
cubs
Seriously though, they could use their ownership of the mariners to their advantage. I want a Nintendo all stars baseball game yo
BishopLamont
Banned
Why would they sell it? They're not strapped for cash.
The reason why Q1 shipments for both the 3DS and Wii U were so low was due to over shipment during Q3 and obvious slow sales during Q4. We do know that more 3DS's were sold in Q1 compared to what was shipped. So I expect a rebound in 3DS shipments. I think 400k in Q2 for the Wii U is a good guess aswell.
Did some quick checking:
Media Create Q2 3DS sales so far: 623k
Guesstimate of remaining Q2 sales: 500k (250+150+100)
Japan alone will account for ~1.2 million.
NPD has the 3DS at ~260k, excluding September. Same weekly trend as a minimum should add another 160k for a Q2 total ~420k. This excludes influences from the Pokemon bundle, and NPD doesn't represent the entire Americas.
Europe will be about the same as the Americas.
I would guess total shipments of 3DS during Q2 to exceed 2.2m. That might be low depending on how much Nintendo overships this quarter to make sure stock is available on the shelves. I wouldn't take the risk with low stock, because MH4 could be larger than they estimate (and it seems to be) in Japan, while Pokemon bundles and hype could increase weekly averages.
Did some quick checking:
Media Create Q2 3DS sales so far: 623k
Guesstimate of remaining Q2 sales: 500k (250+150+100)
Japan alone will account for ~1.2 million.
NPD has the 3DS at ~260k, excluding September. Same weekly trend as a minimum should add another 160k for a Q2 total ~420k. This excludes influences from the Pokemon bundle, and NPD doesn't represent the entire Americas.
Europe will be about the same as the Americas.
I would guess total shipments of 3DS during Q2 to exceed 2.2m. That might be low depending on how much Nintendo overships this quarter to make sure stock is available on the shelves. I wouldn't take the risk with low stock, because MH4 could be larger than they estimate (and it seems to be) in Japan, while Pokemon bundles and hype could increase weekly averages.
Not that it's relevant to anything other than quarterly numbers, but there's a good chance that the 2DS will be included in Nintendo's Q2 as well. The launch date is Oct 12, and cargo by boat from China can take 11-12 days, plus clearing customs, plus making sure the retailers have it a few days in advance for stocking and set-up. I'm guessing the launch date was specifically chosen to allow for the shipment to be included in Q2, since Q3 will already be big due to the holidays.
Anecdotal news time - stores in Hong Kong looked like they were selling a lot of new 3DS consoles today, a lot of people were buying the limited edition 3DS XLs with MH4. There was kind of a buzz.
In other news, some stores were blatantly playing the pirated version of GTA V on huge 40" screens to attract customers.
In other news, some stores were blatantly playing the pirated version of GTA V on huge 40" screens to attract customers.
Aquamarine
Member
It all depends on Nintendo's accounting procedures...whether the "consolidated sale" is recognized when the sale is promised, when payment has been received, or when the transaction has been completed (i.e. inventory has been delivered to its destination).
October 12th was chosen for the 2DS because it coincides exactly with Pokemon X / Y's launch.
Even if evidence of the 2DS isn't shown on Nintendo's Q2 report, it doesn't really matter at all. Investors are razor-focused on Q3 (and Q4 to a lesser extent) for Nintendo to own up to their promises. I don't think Nintendo really has a strong drive to bulk up the Q2 report for this reason.
Yeah, that's why I said there's a decent chance (instead of a certainty) that it will show up in Q2 - it depends on if they book it as shipping point or destination, and off-hand, I don't remember which method they use. And yeah, Oct 12 is because of Pokemon, but I could totally see the Pokemon date being set up to allow the North American revenue from Pokemon (along with the 2DS) to be booked in Q2. It would allow Pokemon (western sales) to be paired with Monster Hunter japanese sales for Q2 - and then Pokemon japanese sales plus worldwide holiday season for Q3. Are they thinking it that far through - I have no idea, but it wouldn't surprise me. Companies strategically (in terms of quarterly results) align their product launches all the time.
And anyone who is investing at this point because they expect Nintendo to meet their FY forecasts (particularly with respect to the WiiU - which will also affect revenues - although selling less WiiUs might not hurt short-term profitability much if they are still taking a significant loss on each unit) deserves to lose their money for not paying attention to what they are investing in.
Immaculate
Banned
gotta meet that 1 billion profit goal
Never fall asleep checking the eShop charts - I accidentally bought the Tingle app in my sleep:0
Anyways, no change for Monster Hunter 4 (#4), it's up amongst the big boys now
So whilst Pokémon X & Y will be counted as one SKU at retail, will the same be the case for the eShop or is it a case of wait and see?
Anyways, no change for Monster Hunter 4 (#4), it's up amongst the big boys now
So whilst Pokémon X & Y will be counted as one SKU at retail, will the same be the case for the eShop or is it a case of wait and see?
Apparently Nintendo printed many 3DS LL MH limited editions since they are widely available at so many stores.
You beat me
And great news. I really wish we knew the up-to-date Denpa numbers. I can only imagine that Monster Hunter is above six figures now in eShop sales.
Wow! That's quite a sight seeing the two versions being so close to each other! O_O Usually there is always a clear winner!
@Aquamarine and others:
Wow, I really like your conversation! Very interesting! (I'm deadly serious, you are making my day! I LOVE seeing these kind of numbers! I really don't know why...)
Should ask the first guy in the line. apparently his friends are getting the game on digital which is why he is the only one lining up.
I would think you are sarcastic most of the time... but this one I'm not sure
OK, so Nintendo, you gotta bring this over to the west so I can buy one. Kthxbai.
Aquamarine
Member
The promises extend beyond FY forecasts---people are looking at Q3 / Q4 because it has a lot of implications that extend far beyond Nintendo's immediate profitability, like long-term viability of their major IPs (Zelda, Pokemon, Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Wii Fit, Wii Party, etc.) in the 8th generation, the future of the Wii U, the success of the 2DS experiment, and a complete picture of the shareholder value of the company.
Q2, with relatively minor strategic moves executed by Nintendo, has much fewer expectations for the company to deliver. Yes, if they underwhelm YOY it will be a cause for concern as always, but it's not the kind of quarter that could significantly affect the share price. I assume that the going price for 7974 (¥‎10,820) factors in a lukewarm Q2.
I just don't see how strategically it would be in Nintendo's benefit to record their consolidated shipments in the quarter where no one is watching the company closely. It's clear that Nintendo's corporate strategy has been very heavily focused around October, November, and December, aside from the Wii U SKU re-shuffling / re-pricing on September 20th.
Doesn't Nintendo want to signify Q3 as the "rebirth" of the Wii U and a "return to Nintendo-like profits"? Why would Nintendo want to leave potential revenue (2DS + Pokemon X/Y shipments) out of that whirlwind? Why would they want to delegate those profits to a slow quarter when they could just add fire to the "rebirth" impression?
Glass Rebel
Member
I forgot how much stuff h.a.n.d. did for SE last gen. With Kingdom Hearts moving full-time to the Osaka team and (maybe) console only, I wonder if we'll ever see an SE published h.a.n.d. handheld game. Maybe another Chocobo title? Do we know who was working on Chocobo Racing 3D?
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
One would think Capcom would release a statement tonight before stock market opens no?
The_lascar
Member
I was expecting more for Tomodachi 3DS, but I think it wasn't a good idea to release it so close from Animal Crossing.
Looking at MHP3rd, Capcom gave the shipment on Monday (2 milliion) and Famitsu the sales on Tuesday (2.1 million - go Famitsu)
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Great! Thanks for the clear-up. I hope results are favorable as Capcom would need MH4 to exceed their intital forecast of 2.8 million in order to help sustain the loss attributed to LP3 (they are certainly not acheiving 1.2 million forecast - 300k if they are lucky).
What has been the response of retailers? Are their initial shipments sold out as well as MH4 3DSXL hardware?
IMHO, excluding downloads, their results for the next week or two will be limited by their capacity to ship enough copies... And 2.8M is pretty much a minimum I think. u_u
As far as I know, Nintendo has never given any Q3-specific forecasts - only the full year. So they want the revenues/profits for the full year, regardless of where it comes from. As far as actual comments, I think Iwata even mentioned something about momentum starting with Pikmin 3 and building from there with more regular releases following that.
The potential "advantage" to booking the revenue in Q2 would depend upon when they want to lower their FY guidance. If they choose to lower their FY guidance with their half-year report, then they may want their Q2 results to be stronger to have some good news to point to in order to help offset the bad guidance moving forward. If they choose to wait until after Q3 to adjust guidance, then they'd rather have that revenue booked in Q3. But there's a downward revision coming.
But again - I'm not saying that it will happen. I was just pointing out that it might.
yankeeforever2
Member
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeoza...stimated-2-billion-network-deal-with-directv/
http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/
The mariners are doing fine for Nintendo's bottom line.
Bald Cleft
Banned
Comgnet:
Principate
Saint Titanfall
What does this mean!!!!
Aquamarine
Member
Code:
[B][U]Comgnet Software Sales Rankings: Week 37, 2013 (Sep 09 - Sep 15)[/U][/B]
[B]01. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 – 4358pt[/B]
[B]02. [PS3] AKB1/149: Love Election (First Press Limited Edition) – 146pt[/B]
03. [PS3] Splinter Cell: Blacklist – 30pt
[B]04. [PSP] Brothers Conflict: Brilliant Blue – 20pt[/B]
05. [3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life – 20pt
06. [3DS] Youkai Watch – 18pt
07. [PS3] Puppeteer – 17pt
08. [3DS] Friend Collection: New Life – 16pt
09. [3DS] Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon – 16pt
10. [PSV] Killzone: Mercenary – 12pt
11. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 12pt
[B]12. [PSP] Brothers Conflict: Brilliant Blue (Limited Edition) – 11pt[/B]
13. [PSP] God Eater: Burst (PSP the Best Reprint) – 11pt
14. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 - Dubbed (Bargain Edition) – 10pt
[B]15. [PS3] AKB1/149: Love Election – 10pt[/B]
16. [3DS] Brain Age: Concentration Training – 10pt
17. [PS3] Dead or Alive 5: Ultimate – 9pt
18. [3DS] Hoppechan: Tsukutte! Asonde! Punipuni Town!! – 9pt
19. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Dream Team – 8pt
20. [3DS] Art Academy: Lessons for Everyone – 8pt
[B]* New releases are in bold
* 1 pt = 1 sale
3DS - 10
PS3 - 6
PSP - 3
PSV - 1[/B]No Tsutaya yet, but I'll post it when it releases.
Also, sorry for the lateness. The Wifi on my plane cutout...just came back on.
Looks like Japanese are trading in this game in large numbers, judging by amazon.co.jp only offering 454 yen ($4.50) trade-in value for it today:
I have never seen such a low trade-in value for a game upon release. For reference, most games that are in demand are offered for trade-in value up to or even over their MSRP in the first week of release, unless there are mass trade-ins. Even today, popular Nintendo 3DS games command trade-in values upwards of 2000 yen, months or even years after their release.
Could this be a sign that the used market will be flooded this week, which might in turn affect sales of new copies?
I have never seen such a low trade-in value for a game upon release. For reference, most games that are in demand are offered for trade-in value up to or even over their MSRP in the first week of release, unless there are mass trade-ins. Even today, popular Nintendo 3DS games command trade-in values upwards of 2000 yen, months or even years after their release.
Could this be a sign that the used market will be flooded this week, which might in turn affect sales of new copies?
QuiteWhittle
Member
The trade in value was even lower yesterday at somewhere around 250 yen.
Glass Rebel
Member
Uhm, what's the deal with Yokai Watch anyway? It hasn't left the Top 10 since release and tripled its FW and as far as I am aware the anime isn't out yet. Was it overstocked? Aggressive price slashes? Post-release marketing? Good word of mouth?
Why?Looks like Japanese are trading in this game in large numbers, judging by amazon.co.jp only offering 454 yen ($4.50) trade-in value for it today:
I have never seen such a low trade-in value for a game upon release. For reference, most games that are in demand are offered for trade-in value up to or even over their MSRP in the first week of release, unless there are mass trade-ins. Even today, popular Nintendo 3DS games command trade-in values upwards of 2000 yen, months or even years after their release.
Could this be a sign that the used market will be flooded this week, which might in turn affect sales of new copies?
Is there a game breaking bug, or is there too many people buying it only to resell it, hoping it would be rare enough to make a profit?? If so, they are stupid, as the game is also available in digital form. So there is a good chance the reseller actually just flooded the market too much. LOL, good for them.
I would say the combination of slow weeks and the fact it's destined to be an evergreen title, also it's similarities with pokemon just before the release of the latest generation...