Sony getting that 3rd party support
I'm curious how long Vita lasts. It doesn't really make sense for a retailer to stock it in the US and Europe doesn't seem that much better. How long can Vita stay afloat with middle of the road Japanese sales?
Well Sony appears to have next to zero internal software development for the Vita left with maybe a couple of exceptions from SCEJ.
The Vita is basically done already in the West. It could be sold solely through Amazon and their own web storefront and likely sell about the same.
As for Japan, the PSP sat for quite a few years past its demise globally, so I'd guess that Sony will basically just let it keep going until third party support stops, since they don't really have to invest much at this point anymore to support what is there.
At this point the system is essentially serving as a stop gap to try and keep Japanese customers engaged while they attempt to shift support on to the PS4.
If I had to guess, if we assume Fall 2016 for the 4DS, I suspect everyone who is still only on the Vita will quickly move on to either that, iOS/Android, and/or the PS4 and faze out the Vita depending on how fast the 4DS rises, how well mobile accepts their games, and/or how alive the PS4 is.
Some of the blockade here is technology related so there's not a huge incentive to move until there's a new system to go to unless the Vita just completely implodes.