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Famitsu Sales Week: 20, 2023 (May 08 - May 14)

Nautilus

Banned
Nautilus Nautilus likes to ignore reality.

Everyone wants to compare against the PlayStation 2, except the PS2 was very much an exception because so many people bought it as a cheap DVD player. It sold about 5 million more than the PS1 which was excellent in its own right.

20 million is the real highwater mark for consoles (not 25 million of the PS2).

PS1 sold 19.4 million
NES sold 19.35 million
SNES sold 17.1 million


PS5 will ultimately land somewhere between 12-15 million units, which will be their 3rd best selling console of all time. Certainly not dire.

Software was always an interesting one in Japan. Outside of major titles. Only with a healthy install base will you see million sellers in Japan and that's largely limited to Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Onimusha, Monster Hunter, and to a degree Resident Evil.

Nautilus Nautilus also doesn't know how many people are buying digital. 1 out of every 7 PS5s sold are digital only and on top of that you're probably looking at least 50% of software sales going digital. In some reasons its as high as 70% digital on consoles. He knows that people are buying hardware, but he thinks they aren't playing any games and denies that they could be buying digital. He knows that the first major new title release of the year is going to be FF16, but he ignores this.
Never denied about PS5 users buying digital, but even if 50% of all software sales are digital, 50% of a number that doesn't even appear on a list whose lowest selling game at said list is at 4k, is still a negligible number.

Hence why the majority of people are extremely worried with the PS5 situation in Japan, as the hardware sales don't make sense considering the almost non existant software sales.
 

Nautilus

Banned
I'm explaining why you have mutiple people complaining about your posts every week, and its because you apply a negative filter to all the Sony results.
And I appreciate the explanation, I just don't agree with it.

But I do appreciate the reply nonetheless!
 

Nautilus

Banned
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/famitsu-week-14-2023-mar-27-apr-02.1655090/post-267801497

Here you thought it would drop below 30K a week now it's consistently above 40K but somehow this is dire?

The reality is that with the PS5 slim and a possible (though doubtful price drop) the PS5 could sell considerably more units this year. That combined with Street Fighter 6 and others... possibly even FF7RP2.
Never said it was dire lol.

Not too bad is not dire. And yes, I expected them to be lower at this point, which thankfully didn't happen yet. I still don't believe these numbers are sustainable, as the software numbers are abysmal to justify these hardware sales, hence why I still think it will go down/settle down eventually.But famitsu will tell us either way regardless.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Never said it was dire lol.

Not too bad is not dire. And yes, I expected them to be lower at this point, which thankfully didn't happen yet. I still don't believe these numbers are sustainable, as the software numbers are abysmal to justify these hardware sales, hence why I still think it will go down/settle down eventually.But famitsu will tell us either way regardless.

Dude you've been wrong for WEEKS and despite that have still been dismissive of the numbers... like you have no humility to just say you were wrong. You double triple and quadruple down...
 

RoboFu

One of the green rats
02./02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 9.794 / 5.293.478 (-54%)
08./07. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 5.061 / 5.190.681 (-54%)

I mean WOW are people buying these games 2 or 3 times? :messenger_astonished:
 

Nautilus

Banned
Dude you've been wrong for WEEKS and despite that have still been dismissive of the numbers... like you have no humility to just say you were wrong. You double triple and quadruple down...
I have somewhat wrong on the hardware numbers(And even then I said that I expected that they would go down as the months went by, not weeks. And the PS5 sales did go down from 90k to around 40k lol), but I have been right on the software side. PS5 software seem to be appearing less and less, in what is likely the best year for sales of a Sony console, even as the Switch gets older and older.

I do hope I'm wrong, mind you. But nothing seems to point that Sony's situation in Japan is healthy(quite the opposite, really) or that these hardware sales are sustainable in the long term.
 

Nautilus

Banned
02./02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 9.794 / 5.293.478 (-54%)
08./07. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 5.061 / 5.190.681 (-54%)

I mean WOW are people buying these games 2 or 3 times? :messenger_astonished:
This is what is expected to happen when new systems are bought: The first type of games bought are the evergreens ones, and the reason why Splatoon, Zelda, Mario, Smash and Mario Kart keeps appearing on the charts.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
I have somewhat wrong on the hardware numbers(And even then I said that I expected that they would go down as the months went by, not weeks. And the PS5 sales did go down from 90k to around 40k lol), but I have been right on the software side. PS5 software seem to be appearing less and less, in what is likely the best year for sales of a Sony console, even as the Switch gets older and older.

I do hope I'm wrong, mind you. But nothing seems to point that Sony's situation in Japan is healthy(quite the opposite, really) or that these hardware sales are sustainable in the long term.

You said they'd drop below 30K...

There are a lot of games that people can buy and can buy digitally. Games not appearing on the famitsu list isn't necessarily indicative of people not buying software. It means that individual titles probably aren't reaching high thresholds, but given hardware sales, you should expect some software is moving along.

The Switch has cheaper consoles, cheaper games, larger userbase. Most of the sales are surrounding individual titles. Most of the PS5s heavy hitting japanese franchises have yet to hit.

You've BEEN wrong.

Go on record as to how many units FF16 will sell.
 
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Nautilus

Banned
You said they'd drop below 30K...

There are a lot of games that people can buy and can buy digitally. Games not appearing on the famitsu list isn't necessarily indicative of people not buying software. It means that individual titles probably aren't reaching high thresholds, but given hardware sales, you should expect some software is moving along.

The Switch has cheaper consoles, cheaper games, larger userbase. Most of the sales are surrounding individual titles. Most of the PS5s heavy hitting japanese franchises have yet to hit.

You've BEEN wrong.

Go on record as to how many units FF16 will sell.
Since when they are not indicative? So if Famitsu is not an indication of how well games, hardware and the industry as a whole is doing, what the hell are we doing here? If games appear here, its all fun and games.But when they don't, dont' even SELL 3k on ANY given week, are we to go "But you see, that's not the whole picture, there are more at play..."? That's just screams copium, to put it lightly.

And lol. Switch games costs as much or as less as any other games on other platform. That's just a weak ass argument.
 
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Baki

Member
50% digital ratio for Zelda. Not having the digital numbers makes these threads increasingly harder for discussion. Atleast, in the UK, they give us digital sales after a few days, which makes comparisons easier. Great job for Zelda, it's one of the largest debuts in Japanese history. Nintendo has done a great job of taking the franchise to the next level.

You said they'd drop below 30K...

There are a lot of games that people can buy and can buy digitally. Games not appearing on the famitsu list isn't necessarily indicative of people not buying software. It means that individual titles probably aren't reaching high thresholds, but given hardware sales, you should expect some software is moving along.

The Switch has cheaper consoles, cheaper games, larger userbase. Most of the sales are surrounding individual titles. Most of the PS5s heavy hitting japanese franchises have yet to hit.

You've BEEN wrong.

Go on record as to how many units FF16 will sell.

I think FF16 will have a lot of digital sales, so we will need to wait for Square PR release with numbers. I think we can expect 1M in the first week, with only 500K physical.
 
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Luigi Mario

Member
Switch 2023 is now head of Switch 2019, but it will be challenging for it to stay there. Needs some more software to be announced.
Didn't Nintendo forecast ambitious software sales for the fiscal year in their recent earnings report, I wonder what they have in store?

It's weird to say PS5 hardware "isn't that bad" when it's actually really good.
Isn't it doing better than what the PS4 did in the same timeframe (around early 2016)?
 
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John Wick

Member
In a way, but there is a noticeable drop with PS5. The PS4 and PS3 software sales were fairly robust and made sense with the amount of hardware sold.

If you comapre PS5 to PS4 its selling much more hardware but much less software.
More people will be buying digitally on PS5. Along with a subscription service which gives access to hundreds of games.
Also Sony have shifted to more of a western angle for games. They mainly make games for a more western audience. This was clearly demonstrated with the shuttering of Sony Japan studio. If Sony want success in Japan then their approach will have to change massively to japanese tastes.
Nintendo's gameplay over graphics mantra is the way to go.
 

Baki

Member
Hence why the majority of people are extremely worried with the PS5 situation in Japan, as the hardware sales don't make sense considering the almost non existant PHYSICAL software sales.
fixed that for you.

Without numbers of F2P, Subs and digital, it's hard to make an assessment on the PS5 ecosystem in Japan.

EDIT: Found some data from Sony themselves:

Wanted to write my long comment about this thread but SIE already disclose some information about japan.


Some important point:
>Japan love F2P, they play more than any other region. (data from month of june 2022 only)
>Japan has the highest Physical Sales (PS4+PS5), 3rd for digital full games (digital sales still higher than physical sales).
>PS5 user spend more in PS Store than PS4 user.
>Overall PS Store spending: 1.US 2. Japan 3.EU 4.Asia.
>Overall spending for Add-On: 1.US 2. Japan 3.EU 4.Asia. Japan average Add-On spending per active device higher than any region.
>F2P spending: 1.Japan 2. US 3.EU 4.Asia
>Japan played the least average number of titles than any other region. US Played the most average number of titles.
>Average Playtime per title in japan is more than double than any other region (include F2P).
>most data gathered within the last 1 year period of time.

i'm not really good in translating japanese, if there's some mistake, feel free to correct it. Seems like PS User Japan spending just moved from buying physical games into buying more digital games and Add-On (DLC, Season Pass, F2P, etc).

Source

The important stats for Japan market
  • #1 F2P spending globally
  • #2 for DLC spending globally
  • Average player time per title is 2X other regions
  • Digital sales higher than physical sales
Nautilus Nautilus likes to ignore reality.

Everyone wants to compare against the PlayStation 2, except the PS2 was very much an exception because so many people bought it as a cheap DVD player. It sold about 5 million more than the PS1 which was excellent in its own right.

20 million is the real highwater mark for consoles (not 25 million of the PS2).

PS1 sold 19.4 million
NES sold 19.35 million
SNES sold 17.1 million


PS5 will ultimately land somewhere between 12-15 million units, which will be their 3rd best selling console of all time. Certainly not dire.

Software was always an interesting one in Japan. Outside of major titles. Only with a healthy install base will you see million sellers in Japan and that's largely limited to Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Onimusha, Monster Hunter, and to a degree Resident Evil.

Nautilus Nautilus also doesn't know how many people are buying digital. 1 out of every 7 PS5s sold are digital only and on top of that you're probably looking at least 50% of software sales going digital. In some reasons its as high as 70% digital on consoles. He knows that people are buying hardware, but he thinks they aren't playing any games and denies that they could be buying digital. He knows that the first major new title release of the year is going to be FF16, but he ignores this.

I agree. 20 million is a high landmark for a home console. It hasn't been done since the PS2. The only 20 million consoles have been portables in the last 20 years.
 
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Nautilus

Banned
fixed that for you.

Without numbers of F2P, Subs and digital, it's hard to make an assessment on the PS5 ecosystem in Japan. Global ARPU is up by 15% for PS5 vs PS4, a market as large as Japan, if it was significantly underperforming, that underperformance would be reflected in the global numbers. Considering global ARPU is up, I imagine spending has shift from physical to other parts of the PS5 ecosystem. Hardware numbers being ahead of PS4 and PS3 is a good sign for the platform's health in Japan.


I agree. 20 million is a high landmark for a home console. It hasn't been done since the PS2. The only 20 million consoles have been portables in the last 20 years.
Physical has always been used as a point of reference for digital sales. If there is almost zero physical sales, then there isn't that much digital sales. F2p and subscriptions is another story, I'll grant you that. But thats good for Sony(subs), not for japanese devs making games for PS5 in Japan, especially small to mid devs.

And you are wrong about no console passing 20 million mark. Swithc is almost at 30 million, and being a hybrid console, its also a home console.
 

lh032

I cry about Xbox and hate PlayStation.
Never denied about PS5 users buying digital, but even if 50% of all software sales are digital, 50% of a number that doesn't even appear on a list whose lowest selling game at said list is at 4k, is still a negligible number.

Hence why the majority of people are extremely worried with the PS5 situation in Japan, as the hardware sales don't make sense considering the almost non existant software sales.
The majority is you right? You seems pretty concern with PS5 software sales in Japan.

Trying Not To Laugh Rooster Teeth GIF by Achievement Hunter
 

Woopah

Member
And I appreciate the explanation, I just don't agree with it.

But I do appreciate the reply nonetheless!
Would you agree that, when commenting on Sony hardware in these threads, you focus more on the mediocre sales you predict in the distant future and not the fantastic sales included in the threads themselves.
50% digital ratio for Zelda. Not having the digital numbers makes these threads increasingly harder for discussion. Atleast, in the UK, they give us digital sales after a few days, which makes comparisons easier. Great job for Zelda, it's one of the largest debuts in Japanese history. Nintendo has done a great job of taking the franchise to the next level.



I think FF16 will have a lot of digital sales, so we will need to wait for Square PR release with numbers. I think we can expect 1M in the first week, with only 500K physical.
We do get digital splits for the UK, but unfortunately often don't get actual software numbers like we do in Japan.
Didn't Nintendo forecast ambitious software sales for the fiscal year in their recent earnings report, I wonder what they have in store?


Isn't it doing better than what the PS4 did in the same timeframe (around early 2016)?
Fairly ambitious yes, and Nintendo has consistently sold more software than their targets.

In the recent Q&A they said they are going to release a variety of software this year, starting with Zelda and Pikmin. We'll need their Summer Direct to find out what else they have in store.

Isn't it doing better than what the PS4 did in the same timeframe (around early 2016)?

Yes, its doing much better than the previous two Sony consoles and significantly better than most people's predictions (including mine and Nautilus').
More people will be buying digitally on PS5. Along with a subscription service which gives access to hundreds of games.
Also Sony have shifted to more of a western angle for games. They mainly make games for a more western audience. This was clearly demonstrated with the shuttering of Sony Japan studio. If Sony want success in Japan then their approach will have to change massively to japanese tastes.
Nintendo's gameplay over graphics mantra is the way to go.
I don't think it necessarily has to be one over the other. If you look at the most successful PlayStation games in Japan recently (Elden Ring, Ghosts of Tsushima, Monster Hunter World, FFVIIR), they aren’t really choosing to not focus on graphics
 

Oof85

Banned
You've spoken a lot about the true baseline for PS5 being 20k or 10k. Which month do you expect it to hit this baseline?
You didn't ask me but I'll volunteer.

If anything, I can see it dropping to a 20-30k baseline range after FF16.

10k is Gamecube tier and Sony has too much goodwill from 3P to ever be that neglected.

As it is, I'd guess that the build up is based around anticipated titles and once those are launched, if there's nothing on the docket in the near future to maintain any kind of excitement, yeah I see it going lower.

Same thing for Switch, I expect it to drop to a 40-50k baseline now that Zelda is out.
 

Woopah

Member
You didn't ask me but I'll volunteer.

If anything, I can see it dropping to a 20-30k baseline range after FF16.

10k is Gamecube tier and Sony has too much goodwill from 3P to ever be that neglected.

As it is, I'd guess that the build up is based around anticipated titles and once those are launched, if there's nothing on the docket in the near future to maintain any kind of excitement, yeah I see it going lower.

Same thing for Switch, I expect it to drop to a 40-50k baseline now that Zelda is out.
I think that's fairly reasonable, though I do think PS5 will stay above 30k mostly. It would be helpful if FFVIIR2 comes this year (though I'm a bit doubtful about that).

For Switch I expect Pikmin 4 to do fairly well and have some effect, but after that it's hard to predict since Nintendo's H2 lineup is so unknown.
 

Kerotan

Member
PS5 absolutely dominating the traditional home console space again this week. The next closest ps4 doesn't stand a chance and Xbox is on it's way to irrelevance.

The only way I ever see it having competition is if Nintendo have the balls to release another but after the Wii U debacle I wouldn't bet on it.
 

Woopah

Member
PS5 absolutely dominating the traditional home console space again this week. The next closest ps4 doesn't stand a chance and Xbox is on it's way to irrelevance.

The only way I ever see it having competition is if Nintendo have the balls to release another but after the Wii U debacle I wouldn't bet on it.
Switch is the competition in Japan and every other country. The hybrid console market is not distinct from the home console market.

It would be like saying that the GameCube dominated the market for traditional home consoles that don't play DVDs.
 

Kerotan

Member
Switch is the competition in Japan and every other country. The hybrid console market is not distinct from the home console market.

It would be like saying that the GameCube dominated the market for traditional home consoles that don't play DVDs.
The switch most certainly is a hybrid and currently dominates that market. Fair play to Nintendo, after Sony showed them up they reinvented themselves and found a new market for themselves where they don't bother anybody.
 

Woopah

Member
The switch most certainly is a hybrid and currently dominates that market. Fair play to Nintendo, after Sony showed them up they reinvented themselves and found a new market for themselves where they don't bother anybody.
But they didn't find a new market. The market the PS5 and Switch are in, is the same market the Wii U, PS4, Wii and PS3 was in.
 

Kerotan

Member
But they didn't find a new market. The market the PS5 and Switch are in, is the same market the Wii U, PS4, Wii and PS3 was in.
A different section of the market. Similar to how console gaming is a different section to PC gaming and mobile gaming.

Their attempts to challenge PlayStation with a dedicated home console just wasn't cutting it. The N64 was the last true attempt and the Wii U was a half hearted disaster.
 

Nautilus

Banned
A different section of the market. Similar to how console gaming is a different section to PC gaming and mobile gaming.

Their attempts to challenge PlayStation with a dedicated home console just wasn't cutting it. The N64 was the last true attempt and the Wii U was a half hearted disaster.
What?

That some twisted logic. Switch and PS5 are gaming consoles that plays games and competes for your time in the same industry. They obviously compete head to head, in Japan or elsewhere. That's like saying that companies that produce cola bevegerages aren't competing with Coca Cola, becasue they are.... different brands. So it doesn't mean they are competing lol

Thats just bs of the highest level.
 

TLZ

Banned
The Lite has been consistently the worst selling Switch SKU, showing that people are not really interested in a handheld console
Why limit yourself if there's another SKU that can connect to TV too? People are looking at the price as a 2-in-1 and thinking it does both and it's still cheaper than buying 2 separate devices, which I think Nintendo nailed, hence the name "Switch".
 

Nautilus

Banned
Why limit yourself if there's another SKU that can connect to TV too? People are looking at the price as a 2-in-1 and thinking it does both and it's still cheaper than buying 2 separate devices, which I think Nintendo nailed, hence the name "Switch".
Exactly. That's my point. If people are seeing value in the "real" Switch, its because they also value it as a home console. If japanese mostly cared about handheld consoles ONLY, then they would be only buying the Lite, given it is far cheaper and the home console mode wouldn't matter to them. Instead, almost 80% of the almost 30 million consoles sold in Japan are of the normal Switch, which can double down as a home console.
 

TLZ

Banned
What?

That some twisted logic. Switch and PS5 are gaming consoles that plays games and competes for your time in the same industry. They obviously compete head to head, in Japan or elsewhere. That's like saying that companies that produce cola bevegerages aren't competing with Coca Cola, becasue they are.... different brands. So it doesn't mean they are competing lol

Thats just bs of the highest level.
What Kerotan Kerotan is saying is that Nintendo exited that power play market and found themselves another lane, which we all know they did.

Tbh Nintendo's home consoles sales were decreasing with every gen since the NES, with the outlier being Wii as we all know (that was the beginning of that different lane they pursued but then stumbled with the Wii U). Their strongest market was always their portables. Numbers don't lie. So their decision making the Switch especially after the Wii U is a smart one IMO, even if I don't like it, because I always liked their dedicated home consoles and prefer them. But they're a business first and foremost and they can't keep losing money.

I'd be super delighted if they come back to dedicated home console territory, but I don't see it happening. (Have both their portable and home console play the same cartridge/digital games, not seperate versions/games like it used to be). I guess the market is too happy with this 2-in-1 value device.
 

Kerotan

Member
What?

That some twisted logic. Switch and PS5 are gaming consoles that plays games and competes for your time in the same industry. They obviously compete head to head, in Japan or elsewhere. That's like saying that companies that produce cola bevegerages aren't competing with Coca Cola, becasue they are.... different brands. So it doesn't mean they are competing lol

Thats just bs of the highest level.
1154.jpg

This meme was brought to you by the power of a traditional home console.
 
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Nautilus

Banned
What Kerotan Kerotan is saying is that Nintendo exited that power play market and found themselves another lane, which we all know they did.

Tbh Nintendo's home consoles sales were decreasing with every gen since the NES, with the outlier being Wii as we all know (that was the beginning of that different lane they pursued but then stumbled with the Wii U). Their strongest market was always their portables. Numbers don't lie. So their decision making the Switch especially after the Wii U is a smart one IMO, even if I don't like it, because I always liked their dedicated home consoles and prefer them. But they're a business first and foremost and they can't keep losing money.

I'd be super delighted if they come back to dedicated home console territory, but I don't see it happening. (Have both their portable and home console play the same cartridge/digital games, not seperate versions/games like it used to be). I guess the market is too happy with this 2-in-1 value device.
But Nintendo never left the dedicated home console market. That's why Kerotan argument holds no water.

From Wii U Nintendo went directly to the Switch, that can be used exclusively as a home console. That's the beauty of its hybrid nature. You don't need to chase the high end graphics to be a home console. as the Switch and the Wii pretty much proved it.

The videogame industry is in constant evolution, and the past concepts that we have, that a home console needs to chase high end graphics, and that console need to have "Four legs instead of three always, unless its not the console with which I grew up for the last 30 years" is outdated.

Switch is both a home console and a portable console. That's why its a hybrid console.

And regardless o9f what they were, even if the PS5 was exclusively a VR machine, it would still compete directly against Nintendo, as both of them are videogame products, that demand people to choose one or the other(If they don't have enough money to afford both). Any argument that preaches that Sony or MS doesn't compete directly with Nintendo is bollocks. Even Phil admited as much in that interview for Kinda Funny.
 
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Woopah

Member
A different section of the market. Similar to how console gaming is a different section to PC gaming and mobile gaming.

Their attempts to challenge PlayStation with a dedicated home console just wasn't cutting it. The N64 was the last true attempt and the Wii U was a half hearted disaster.
There's the PC market, mobile market and dedicated video game console market. Wii U, PS4, Switch and PS5 are all part of the latter, which is what Famitsu tracks.

The PS2 and GameCube were both part of the dedicated console market even though one plays DVDs and the other doesn't. A platform having additional functionality to a competitor doesnt prevent it competing.

Nintendo had a true attempt to challenge Playstation with the Wii U, but got the strategy wrong and completely failed. Then they had a another true attempt with the Switch and did a lot better.

The N64, GameCube and Wii were all true attempts as well.

What Kerotan Kerotan is saying is that Nintendo exited that power play market and found themselves another lane, which we all know they did.

Tbh Nintendo's home consoles sales were decreasing with every gen since the NES, with the outlier being Wii as we all know (that was the beginning of that different lane they pursued but then stumbled with the Wii U). Their strongest market was always their portables. Numbers don't lie. So their decision making the Switch especially after the Wii U is a smart one IMO, even if I don't like it, because I always liked their dedicated home consoles and prefer them. But they're a business first and foremost and they can't keep losing money.

I'd be super delighted if they come back to dedicated home console territory, but I don't see it happening. (Have both their portable and home console play the same cartridge/digital games, not seperate versions/games like it used to be). I guess the market is too happy with this 2-in-1 value device.
They use different strategies sure, but that doesn't mean they don't compete.

The Wii and PS3 had different power levels and strategies, but still competed. Same with the PS2 and GameCube or PS1 and Sega Saturn.

As you said, the market sees value in the Switch's flexibility and functionality. That functionality does not prevent Switch from being a dedicated video game console.
 
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