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[BriBri]

A simple question: if Puzzle & Dragons Z will be very successful (so far, Amazon + Comgnet charts are saying it'll certainly sell, but to seriously reach that 1 millions goal?

I always assumed GungHo included North America in that 1 million sales goal.

 

[cw_sasuke]

A simple question: if Puzzle & Dragons Z will be very successful (so far, Amazon + Comgnet charts are saying it'll certainly sell, but to seriously reach that 1 millions goal? We don't have enough infos for now), do you think we will see more Japanese smartphone franchises going to 3DS and/or Vita, with specific chapters for consoles, and not mere ports of the mobile titles?

If the titles can run on 3DS probably, but it would be easier if the 3DS had Vita-like capabilities. For puzzle-type games it might work but ambitious high end smart-phone titles are probably too much work to get on 3DS.

I always assumed GungHo included North America in that 1 million sales goal.

Doubt it - they havent revealed any release plans for outside of Japan.

 

[Hellraider]

I always assumed GungHo included North America in that 1 million sales goal.

Doubt it - they havent revealed any release plans for outside of Japan.

Also, correct me if I am wrong, but Pazudora is pretty much irrelevant outside Japan (and maybe Asia I really don't know).Even if the 1m goal included NA, most of that figure would have to come from Japan anyway.

 

[1st Course]

Is MH4 still #3 on eshop?

 

[BriBri]

Doubt it - they havent revealed any release plans for outside of Japan.

Well they have announced plans to release it in North America

Pazudora is pretty much irrelevant outside Japan (and maybe Asia I really don't know).

So you do know followed by you 'really don't know'.

Is MH4 still #3 on eshop?

Yes

 

[Chris1964]

What info? is that Azalyn thing your god or something?

Jokes aside, 0 preorders in a store doesn't mean nothing, 30% first-day sell-through of a -over shipped?- Nintendo game, yes.

Let's see

Yes, we'll see and since you don't want to follow it's not only azalyn.

2 predictions from you so far in check

WWHD > 100k week
Wii U 2013 YTD = 1m

Something tells me you'll be very off at both. At Wednesday I'll quote your or my estimate for laughs.

 

[squall23]

Also, correct me if I am wrong, but Pazudora is pretty much irrelevant outside Japan (and maybe Asia I really don't know).Even if the 1m goal included NA, most of that figure would have to come from Japan anyway.

PAD has a huge following in China and Korea. The only reason the English version isn't as widespread is because it was only recently that the game was downloadable outside of itunes US. Sure, you could have made a US account if you were desperate enough for a single game, other than that, I do think popularity is rising.

 

[Peff]

Yes, we'll see and since you don't want to follow it's not only azalyn.

2 predictions from you so far in check

WWHD > 100k week
Wii U 2013 YTD = 1m

Something tells me you'll be very off at both. At Wednesday I'll quote your or my estimate for laughs.

Man, you have the patience of a saint, haha.

 

[1st Course]

lol no way the Wii U will hit 1m YTD this year.

 

[Road]

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) -
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) -
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) -
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) -
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) -
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) -
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) -



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: October, 2nd 09:00 am (EST) (when Famitsu or Media Create first make their weekly sales public)

Attention:

• Remember for some games it's not only the 1st week.
• Multiplatform games are the combined available sales of each platform.

Rules:

• Do not edit your post after the deadline. If you do, you'll be disqualified.
• The official monthly hardware sales will be the sum of weekly numbers for all versions of the system available from Famitsu.
• The official monthly software sales will be the latest total or the sum of the weekly numbers if the title is release before the period available from the Famitsu Top 30.
• The official monthly sales for multi-platform releases will be the combined available sales of each platform shown in the title entry.
• The official monthly sales for games with multiple versions will be the combined available sales of each version shown in the title entry.
• Any game missing in the Famitsu top 30 will be taken out of the predictions.
• Any item missing in your prediction will be considered as if you had predicted zero for its sales.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

One question, is any new PSV model - that is new Vita and VitaTV - out this month?
If so may possibly have to adjust up my Vita hardware predictions.

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 3.100.000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 600.000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 300.000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 100.000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 30.000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 1.100.000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 52.000

 

[1st Course]

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 3m
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 420k
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 250k
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 100k
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 150k
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 750k
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 45k

 

[Spiegel]

One question, is any new PSV model - that is new Vita and VitaTV - out this month?
If so may possibly have to adjust up my Vita hardware predictions.

Vita2000 - October 10th (Danganropa week)
VitaTV - November 14th (God Eater 2 week)

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Vita2000 - October 10th (Danganropa week)
VitaTV - November 14th (God Eater 2 week)

Hmm, then a bump should be expected when compared to previous weeks somehow.

 

[Graphics Horse]

lol no way the Wii U will hit 1m YTD this year.

At least it will sneak past last years total sales, if things pick up a bit.

Wii U is selling similarly to the NDS two years ago, 3DS kills all.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Another question, what are the most successful dodgeball games in Japan?

 

[zroid]

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 3.200.000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 300.000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 250.000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 95.000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 95.000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 800.000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 70.000

 

[Vinnk]

Another question, what are the most successful dodgeball games in Japan?

The Kunio-Kun ones.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

The Kunio-Kun ones.

Thanks, now I think I may have been overestimating Battle for money

 

[zroid]

Wait what is Battle for Money? It's a successor to Run for Money, right?

 

[BriBri]

Wait what is Battle for Money? It's a successor to Run for Money, right?

Yes.

 

[Bald Cleft]

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 3,100,000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 350,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 200,000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 80,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 30,000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 850,000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 45,000

 

[frankie_baby]

i'll give this a go


Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,400,000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 280,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 220,000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 75,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 145,000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 690,000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 46,000

 

[zroid]

Yes.

hmm... I'm sure it will do well in the long term, but RFM was all legs. Then again RFM's long-term success could mean a higher initial buy-in for BFM. Tough call for me.

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,400,000

I'm going to assume you were thinking of launch week sales, 'cause that's really lowballing for 16 days :lol

 

[frankie_baby]

hmm... I'm sure it will do well in the long term, but RFM was all legs. Then again RFM's long-term success could mean a higher initial buy-in for BFM. Tough call for me.



I'm going to assume you were thinking of launch week sales, 'cause that's really lowballing for 16 days :lol

not really, I just expect it to sell more inline with diamond/pearl

i'd expect a more black/white style performance from the next mainline pokemon

some of the predictions so far seem slightly ridiculous

 

[Busaiku]

2.4 million isn't necessarily lowballing it.
Keep in mind that's what most Pokemon games do, Black just had a much higher debut.

Given that it's the 1st Pokemon game of the platform, and the total userbase being much smaller than when Black debuted, it's actually more likely.

 

[zroid]

for 3 weeks worth of MC threads? 2.4m would be worse than MH4!

that would be very shocking imo. I think 3m should be expected at least.

 

[Busaiku]

Ruby/Sapphire and Diamond/Pearl were at 2.4 million after 3 weeks.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Ruby/Sapphire and Diamond/Pearl were at 2.4 million after 3 weeks.

Good point, but personally I can see there are some chances this may be breaking previous records, besides seeing MH4 sales I am pretty confident this will fare good.

 

[frankie_baby]

for 3 weeks worth of MC threads? 2.4m would be worse than MH4!

that would be very shocking imo. I think 3m should be expected at least.

wouldn't be shocking at all, apart from black/white pokemon does not usually sell that much that fast, in the long run I expect x/y to outsell mh4 though as it will certainly have the bigger of the xmas bumps

 

[zroid]

Fair enough, I guess we will see! I think it will handily outsell Diamond/Pearl, but definitely will not beat Black/White. I may have been reaching a bit with 3.5m, getting caught up in the hype (lol). Still, if I edit, I can't see myself predicting less than 3m.

 

[SaviorX]

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 3.220.000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 242.000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 230.000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 83.000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 77.000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 724.000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 48.000

 

[MasterSheen]

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2.9m
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 375k
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 170k
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 60k
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 75k
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 760k
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 77k

I'm ready for failure.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 3.200.000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 333.000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 220.000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 99.000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 90.000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 700.000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 50.000

 

[L Thammy]

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,893,461
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 364,215
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 85,878
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 29,571
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 31,669
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 412,641
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 43,327

A simple question: if Puzzle & Dragons Z will be very successful (so far, Amazon + Comgnet charts are saying it'll certainly sell, but to seriously reach that 1 millions goal? We don't have enough infos for now), do you think we will see more Japanese smartphone franchises going to 3DS and/or Vita, with specific chapters for consoles, and not mere ports of the mobile titles?

Don't smartphone games make most of their money through microtransactions and other models that are uncommon on traditional gaming platforms? Puzzle and Dragons Z will be a nice side project, a way for the IP to hit users they usually do not. Something like Ragnarok Online's handheld spinoffs. But I don't think the smaller smartphone franchises will be able to profit as easily with different pricing models.

 

[shinra-bansho]

A simple question: if Puzzle & Dragons Z will be very successful (so far, Amazon + Comgnet charts are saying it'll certainly sell, but to seriously reach that 1 millions goal? We don't have enough infos for now), do you think we will see more Japanese smartphone franchises going to 3DS and/or Vita, with specific chapters for consoles, and not mere ports of the mobile titles?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=687503

 

[Bald Cleft]

Wait.. no predictions for Sonic Lost World??

 

[hongcha]

Prediction League October, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):

[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 3,500,000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 300,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 150,000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 100,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 25,000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 550,000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 100,000

 

[frankie_baby]

Wait.. no predictions for Sonic Lost World??

its a sonic game, if it brakes 25k first week it will be a miracle

 

[Busaiku]

If it breaks 10k, it'll be a miracle.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Yes, we'll see and since you don't want to follow it's not only azalyn.

2 predictions from you so far in check

WWHD > 100k week
Wii U 2013 YTD = 1m

Something tells me you'll be very off at both. At Wednesday I'll quote your or my estimate for laughs.

Lmao at WiiU 1m YTD.

Wait.. no predictions for Sonic Lost World??

Its going to bomb, whats the point?

 

[Hellraider]

So you do know followed by you 'really don't know'.

I know about North America and West in general, I know about Japan, wasn't so sure about Asia.Thought that was clear.What do you want to say?
No matter how big the game even is in Asia I stand by what I said.Most of its sales will come from Japan.

 

[Road]

3rd week sales from Famitsu:

1996-03-11 [NGB] Pokémon Red / Green - 5,756 / 136,216
1999-11-29 [NGB] Pokémon Gold / Silver - 453,500 / 2,317,549
2002-12-02 [GBA] Pokémon Ruby / Sapphire - 321,408 / 2,037,949
2006-10-09 [NDS] Pokémon Diamond / Pearl - 291,178 / 2,311,331
2010-09-27 [NDS] Pokémon Black / White - 372,619 / 3,782,076

• Red /Green was probably sold-out that week. Weekly sales are: 109,207 -> 21,253 -> 5,756 -> 22,053 -> 28,551. Clearly an odd low. Also, overall numbers might have been adjusted by Famitsu.
• Gold / Silver numbers might also have been adjusted by Famitsu.
• Ruby / Sapphire was launched when GBA LTD was 6.5m. While I think people like to throw the installed base excuse too lightly, I think it was a factor for the initially slower sales, along with stock (see blow).
• Diamond / Pearl, DS LTD was 11.3m, but the game sold-out at launch. I don't know what the stock situation was in the following weeks.
• Black / White. Plenty of stock and DSes around.

The truth is up until B2W2, the launches had a very high sell-through close to 90% or higher:

2002-11-18 [GBA] Pokémon Ruby Version - 543,962 / 543,962 <89.79%>
2002-11-18 [GBA] Pokémon Sapphire Version - 549,337 / 549,337 <90.11%>
2004-01-26 [GBA] Pokémon FireRed Version - 517,874 / 517,874 <96.01%>
2004-01-26 [GBA] Pokémon LeafGreen Version - 495,245 / 495,245 <92.4%>
2004-09-13 [GBA] Pokémon Emerald Version - 790,527 / 790,527 <91.37%>
2006-09-25 [NDS] Pokémon Diamond Version - 820,047 / 820,047 <97.12%>
2006-09-25 [NDS] Pokémon Pearl Version - 768,687 / 768,687 <96.16%>
2008-09-08 [NDS] Pokémon Platinum Version - 963,273 / 963,273 <90.72%>
2009-09-07 [NDS] Pokémon HeartGold Version - 720,086 / 720,086 <91.16%>
2009-09-07 [NDS] Pokémon SoulSilver Version - 722,904 / 722,904 <91.48%>
2010-09-13 [NDS] Pokémon Black Version - 1,323,423 / 1,323,423 <89.21%>
2010-09-13 [NDS] Pokémon White Version - 1,234,356 / 1,234,356 <86.09%>
2012-06-18 [NDS] Pokémon Black Version 2 - 816,576 / 816,576 <82.91%>
2012-06-18 [NDS] Pokémon White Version 2 - 745,162 / 745,162 <77.43%>


With enough stock, I think X/Y could perform close to BW. So what we have to guess for X/Y is the same we for MH4: How many copies will be shipped.

Going by pre-orders (for instance, Amazon doesn't have any right now, only 3rd parties), I don't think the stock available will be similar to what was there for BW

 

[frankie_baby]

If it breaks 10k, it'll be a miracle.

quite possibly

who's publishing in japan, Nintendo or sega?

 

[DaBoss]

1996-03-11 [NGB] Pokémon Red / Green - 5,756 / 136,216

Holy shit, these games must have had monstrous legs.

And yea, I don't think they will be able to have as much carts available as BW.

 

[Lexxism]

And yea, I don't think they will be able to have as much carts available as BW.

Yeah because they want them to buy at eshop.

 

[DaBoss]

Yeah because they want them to buy at eshop.

I would blame the international launch. Also, we don't know if Pokémon uses a special cartridge like AC:NL.

 

[Sandfox]

Holy shit, these games must have had monstrous legs.

That more than likely had more to do with Nintendo not expecting Pokemon to be as big as it was and when it blew up sales probably got to the usual numbers pretty fast.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

http://www.yodobashi.com/ec/product/stock/100000001001772491/index.html

MH4 sold out at every Yodobashi store.

 

[zroid]

SAMMY!!!