frankie_baby
Member
Looks like even 200k worldwide would be a struggle
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Looks like even 200k worldwide would be a struggle
Other than the sales figures from past marvel games mentioned. Capcom had low expectations for USF2 and it has outsold MvCi in the first week.
Capcom forecasted 2 million sales for MvCi, that's why things aren't looking so great with their debuts in UK and Japan.
Change to first person, story reboot, all new characters, no zombies, no action, no co-op, no online, no mercenaries, the list goes on and on.
It's hardly surprising that RE7 under performed compared to the previous entries, it doesn't have a lot of what the series has been known for years now. It basically didn't do a good job of appealing to the existing fan base and didn't catch enough of a new one.
MHW so far seems to be a legit new entry in the series, very much appealing to the core fans first while also adding various QOL features along the way.
mugurumakensei
Member
So far, we know USF2 has outsold MvC:I's first week in UK and Japan so it wouldn't be that surprising since we know USF2's sales are somewhere between 400k-500k from Capcom.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
RE7 is like 50% an action horror game.
The last few hours make it a straight up shooter.
It sold way below (already pretty low for a mainline entry) Capcom's expectations.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Marvel needs to greenlight wolverine and magneto yesterday, make them free updates.
MHW still has the challenge of being a home console game in Japan. Even if they double MH4U's western figures that might be enough for them and I think people underestimate how much of a challenge that will be.
Laplasakos
Member
Since we have been getting more PS4/Switch games lately and we are doing comparisons, here is another one.
Switch vs 3DS
PS4 vs PS3
MK8 DX vs MK8
Dragon Quest Comparison
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | Nintendo 3DS | Nintendo Switch | Difference |
| | (2011/02/26) | (2017/03/03) | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | NSW - 3DS |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 28| 54.744|1.727.529| 45.439|1.623.475| -104.054|
| 29| 49.076|1.776.605| 44.052|1.667.527| -109.078|
| 30| 58.837|1.835.442| 43.426|1.710.953| -124.489|
| 31| 70.159|1.905.601| | | |
| 32| 58.504|1.964.105| | | |
| 33| 53.540|2.017.645| | | |
| 34| 55.025|2.072.670| | | |
| 35| 73.933|2.146.603| | | |
| 36| 65.041|2.211.644| | | |
| 37| 145.271|2.356.915| | | |
| 38| 103.962|2.460.877| | | |
| 39| 96.219|2.557.096| | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|PS4 vs PS3
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | PlayStation 3 | PlayStation 4 | Difference |
| | (2006/11/11) | (2014/02/22) | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | PS4 - PS3 |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 186| 20.987|5.164.235| 29.482|5.306.335| 142.100|
| 187| 18.951|5.183.186| 24.660|5.330.995| 147.809|
| 188| 17.676|5.200.862| 23.814|5.354.809| 153.947|
| 189| 17.175|5.218.037| | | |
| 190| 19.578|5.237.615| | | |
| 191| 20.077|5.257.692| | | |
| 192| 18.345|5.276.037| | | |
| 193| 19.473|5.295.510| | | |
| 194| 19.420|5.314.930| | | |
| 195| 45.224|5.360.154| | | |
| 196| 28.630|5.388.784| | | |
| 197| 33.057|5.421.841| | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|MK8 DX vs MK8
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | Mario Kart 8 | Mario Kart 8 DX | Difference |
| | [WIU] (2014/05/29)| [NSW] (2017/04/28)| |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | MK8DX MK8 |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 20 | 3.996| 686.763| 10.526| 683.214| -3.549|
| 21 | 3.625| 690.387| 10.971| 694.185| 3.798|
| 22 | 2.821| 693.208| 11.457| 705.642| 12.434|
| 23 | 3.170| 696.378| | | |
| 24 | 3.210| 699.588| | | |
| 25 | 13.544| 713.132| | | |
| 26 | 8.752| 721.884| | | |
| 27 | 12.742| 734.626| | | |
| 28 | 19.244| 753.870| | | |
| 29 | 24.938| 778.808| | | |
| 30 | 34.331| 813.139| | | |
| 31 | 38.637| 851.776| | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|Dragon Quest Comparison
Code:
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | Dragon Quest VIII | Dragon Quest IX | Dragon Quest XI |
| | [PS2] 2004/11/27 | [NDS] 2009/07/11 |[3DSPS4] 2017/07/29|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| 1 |2.167.072|2.167.072|2.318.932|2.318.932|2.099.203|2.099.203|
| 2 | 476.281|2.643.353| 612.671|2.931.603| 508.512|2.607.714|
| 3 | 203.618|2.846.971| 270.305|3.201.908| 207.762|2.815.476|
| 4 | 152.295|2.999.266| 179.612|3.381.520| 117.248|2.932.725|
| 5 | 104.211|3.103.477| 135.649|3.517.169| 52.746|2.985.469|
| 6 | 71.019|3.174.496| 126.682|3.643.851| 36.899|3.022.368|
| 7 | 37.507|3.212.003| 79.103|3.722.954| 25.140|3.047.508|
| 8 | 23.858|3.235.861| 71.318|3.794.272| 16.402|3.063.910|
| 9 | ?| ?| 50.063|3.844.335| 11.586|3.075.496|
| 10 | ?| ?| 36.877|3.881.212| | |
| 11 | ?| ?| 32.603|3.913.815| | |
| 12 | ?| ?| 30.086|3.943.901| | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Year| YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Total -|3.319.607| -|4.143.999| -|3.075.496|
------------------------------------------------------------------mugurumakensei
Member
The core fans who made MH a monster are pretty much handheld gamers starting with the PSP then the 3DS. It's missing the one feature that made MH so big in Japan (local co-op).
That is misleading.
DQX is free for Wii owners on Switch. PS4 owners had to buy the new entry regardless of whether they owned the Wii version or not as it's a completely separate subscription from everything else.
LordRaptor
Member
So is it safe to make some assumptions about the Switches current production capacity?
Assuming there is no stockpiling for holiday sales (I don't believe this is true) would it be safe to estimate that their production capability is somewhere around 150k-200k weekly?
(Assuming stock to be distributed 30% JP, 40% US, 30% EMEA)
If we speculate they are distributing 50% of stock now, and stockpiling 50% for holiday sales, and have been since the start of september, then there will potentially be 2.4 - 3.6 million units available to the supply chain globally for holiday sales.
Assuming there is no stockpiling for holiday sales (I don't believe this is true) would it be safe to estimate that their production capability is somewhere around 150k-200k weekly?
(Assuming stock to be distributed 30% JP, 40% US, 30% EMEA)
If we speculate they are distributing 50% of stock now, and stockpiling 50% for holiday sales, and have been since the start of september, then there will potentially be 2.4 - 3.6 million units available to the supply chain globally for holiday sales.
TheLegendaryN
Member
There's a big overlap of DQX Wii players and Switch owners tho, and that group got DQX Switch for free. Like said multiple times in this thread.
Licencing is always super pricey, especially for a major franchise like Marvel.
Honestly not expecting much of an increase next week anymore. Maybe 50k, but even then...
****
Looks like the lack of Splatoon 2 bundle is benefitting MK8D. And congratz for 700k, looks like 1m this year is a possibility.
How is possible there is no stockpiling for holiday sales? Production won't explode suddenly in a month.
Were PS4 owners given the possibility to upgrade for free by owning another version of the game?
Switch vs 3DS
Dragon Quest Comparison
Code:------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Dragon Quest VIII | Dragon Quest IX | Dragon Quest XI | | | [PS2] 2004/11/27 | [NDS] 2009/07/11 |[3DSPS4] 2017/07/29| |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| |Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 1 |2.167.072|2.167.072|2.318.932|2.318.932|2.099.203|2.099.203| | 2 | 476.281|2.643.353| 612.671|2.931.603| 508.512|2.607.714| | 3 | 203.618|2.846.971| 270.305|3.201.908| 207.762|2.815.476| | 4 | 152.295|2.999.266| 179.612|3.381.520| 117.248|2.932.725| | 5 | 104.211|3.103.477| 135.649|3.517.169| 52.746|2.985.469| | 6 | 71.019|3.174.496| 126.682|3.643.851| 36.899|3.022.368| | 7 | 37.507|3.212.003| 79.103|3.722.954| 25.140|3.047.508| | 8 | 23.858|3.235.861| 71.318|3.794.272| 16.402|3.063.910| | 9 | ?| ?| 50.063|3.844.335| 11.586|3.075.496| | 10 | ?| ?| 36.877|3.881.212| | | | 11 | ?| ?| 32.603|3.913.815| | | | 12 | ?| ?| 30.086|3.943.901| | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| |Year| YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| |Total -|3.319.607| -|4.143.999| -|3.075.496| ------------------------------------------------------------------
Dragon Quest IX was such a beast. I wonder whether we will see something like ever again.
Graphics Horse
Member
It was never sold to people as an action-shooter game.
Production capacity will have always been forecasted with an increase during the holidays. They won't need to stockpile to increase availability.
ohyouagain
Member
Dragon Quest Comparison
Code:------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Dragon Quest VIII | Dragon Quest IX | Dragon Quest XI | | | [PS2] 2004/11/27 | [NDS] 2009/07/11 |[3DSPS4] 2017/07/29| |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| |Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 1 |2.167.072|2.167.072|2.318.932|2.318.932|2.099.203|2.099.203| | 2 | 476.281|2.643.353| 612.671|2.931.603| 508.512|2.607.714| | 3 | 203.618|2.846.971| 270.305|3.201.908| 207.762|2.815.476| | 4 | 152.295|2.999.266| 179.612|3.381.520| 117.248|2.932.725| | 5 | 104.211|3.103.477| 135.649|3.517.169| 52.746|2.985.469| | 6 | 71.019|3.174.496| 126.682|3.643.851| 36.899|3.022.368| | 7 | 37.507|3.212.003| 79.103|3.722.954| 25.140|3.047.508| | 8 | 23.858|3.235.861| 71.318|3.794.272| 16.402|3.063.910| | 9 | ?| ?| 50.063|3.844.335| 11.586|3.075.496| | 10 | ?| ?| 36.877|3.881.212| | | | 11 | ?| ?| 32.603|3.913.815| | | | 12 | ?| ?| 30.086|3.943.901| | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| |Year| YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| |Total -|3.319.607| -|4.143.999| -|3.075.496| ------------------------------------------------------------------
So we can assume that the Dragon Quest XI for Switch will be come out to compensate the sales gap with the previous entries ?
TheLegendaryN
Member
Not as far as I know.
I gladly paid 50$ cnd for USF2 and canceled my 47$ cnd preorder of Infinite. I guess customers do punish you when you disrespect them.
(Yes to have a very good portable SF2 game I was willing to fork out the cash
still Capcom should have included SF2, SF2', SF2T, SSF2 and SSF2X in the package ala anniverssary)
(Yes to have a very good portable SF2 game I was willing to fork out the cash
still Capcom should have included SF2, SF2', SF2T, SSF2 and SSF2X in the package ala anniverssary)It's not far below a price dropped 3DS in-fact it will be very close or above 3DS launch aligned after SMO launches. The real test it the holidays where 3DS sold over 2 million in November & December. Anything below 1.5 million for the Switch during it's first holiday will be insufficient. Finishing 250-750K below 3DS launch aligned for it's first year would be a great result, considering the supply problems and higher price. I'm sure that if they are able to do supply enough stock they could finish equal or above 3DS's launch aligned.
It's all a matter of what Nintendo has prepared for the holidays. To me the current baseline of 40-50K and likely a big bump for SMO launch is signalling that 3.5 million this year will be the minimum unless stock craters during the biggest period of the year for Nintendo. Something I find unlikely, to me it definitely looks like they might be able to ship around 1.5 million at minimum for Nov/Dec.
Skittzo0413
Member
The production schedule increases around the holidays too I would imagine. I would imagine this schedule has been in place since before the March launch, so essentially they'd have extra units built into these months.
Of course they could also be stockpiling, and probably are, but I think it's possible to see huge boosts in production without stockpiling.
Sammy Samusu gave another of his predictions.
If Switch is really as big as "early" sales indicate, maybe. But since PS4 and Switch versions of a possible DQXII would be pretty close (unlike DXI on PS4 and 3DS which are basically two different games), doubt they'd be many double-dippers to "boost" sales this time around.
LordOcidax
Member
The release schedule of games on Switch has been amazing.. The real winner. Can't wait to see what they have prepared for the 2018...
What is it about Monster Hunter World that makes people say stupid shit?
BrokenJohnCena
Member
I'm surprised that BOTW actually managed to outsell DQXI ps4 version
LordRaptor
Member
I don't believe it is, but as thats an unknown I'm speculating a minimum possible baseline.
I believe they are because holiday sales are time sensitive and historically nintendo benefit particularly well there.
They would do better to slow the supply chain now and increase it for the holidays, because people buying switches on a random day in september will buy on a random day in january. People buying for holiday gifts might wait another year.
Arms could go up in sales this week (which is possible) and still miss top 20.
mugurumakensei
Member
It won't bomb like MvC:I, but it's likely to be a failure in terms of how much Capcom wants to grow the fanbase in the west ( enough to at least break even with the loss of sales in Japan ).
As far as why people say this:
1) Console Wars
2) Capcom's failures are almost laughable at this point. It's one success this year was a remixed port of XBLA game.
3) Some people mad at horror RE7. Another failure makes Capcom reversing course to safe seas more likely.
It's not on a Nintendo platform.
This fact alone is a lot divisive, especially on GAF, it seems.
But yeah: without a MHW Switch port, Capcom will lose Japan forever, I think.
I hope to be wrong, of course.
You probably know. ;p
TheLegendaryN
Member
Nintendo is definitely stockpiling for Super Mario Odyssey and the holidays.
I don't think they'll come even close to the 3DS' first holiday. 3DS install base was 4.3 million units on January 1, 2012.
I don't think they'll come even close to the 3DS' first holiday. 3DS install base was 4.3 million units on January 1, 2012.
More like the baseline for the top 20 somehow rose significantly, to over 4k.
goldenpp72
Member
Which is very low for that series these days.
Well, Animal Crossing 3DS did outsell DQIX by a wide margin (it should be close to 5m by now, if it's not already? Can't remember if we had confirmation of that yet or not). I believe that AC Switch could easily match DQIX sales, if reception is good and Switch doesn't mysteriously crater in Year 3 or so.
***
Looks like it's finally showing decent legs. NotYo-kai legs, but still pretty decent. Holiday sales will be critical for this one.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I know that you know the answer to this
Especially in regards to this thread in particular
3DS was a monster in 2011, but remember that those numbers were reached thanks to a pretty painful price cut. Switch can sold less than that but still be more profitable overall.
Yep. My comment was more related to how DQIX sold during the first weeks. AC is a slow burner (well, it also sells well during the launch period) and would probably sell a lot more than any DQ game, but DQIX short-term performance was quite impressive at the time.
Can you elaborate on what I said is stupid? Because so far this generation Capcom has managed to fail on their own internal expectations for Dead Rising 3/4, REVII, SFV, and now MvC:I. Devil May Cry is dead, Mega Man is dead, Breath of Fire got a mobile game that failed and is about to die. They're taking a huge gamble on Monster Hunter World by making it a console only game.
encephalon
Member
Something something lol capcom
Something something mhw
Something something i bet they port mhw
I hope
Capcom plz
Something something mhw
Something something i bet they port mhw
I hope
Capcom plz
ArkhamFantasy
Member
I agree.....but mvci puts things into a new perspective lol