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[Orgen]

I am telling you, 3DS is gonna explode in December.

And to all Amazon naysayers:

Macross will be the top seller by a wide margin. Go vacation will continue to sell though. Dead Island will be dead next week.

You can't be that dense...

Do you understand that all I said to you was that Amazon wasn't a good argument to prove that MK7 could destroy all FW franchise records? or that 3DS will sell more than 600.000 in one week? Is that so hard? Really?

Not to mention that your prediction based on Amazon was utter and complete crap. Do you want more crap?

The Media Create Week (Nov 28 - Dec 4) MK7 will be top seller by a wide margin. Mario Land 3D will continue to sell though. Need for Speed will be dead the next week.

I have more!:

The Media Create Week (Dec 5 - Dec 11) MH3G will be top seller by a wide margin. Mario Kart 7 will continue to sell though. Sonic Generations will be dead the next week (or that same week).

And you know what's better? I've made all this predictions without the help of Amazon. True story, I swear.

Seeing how obtuse you are with Amazon I'll drop the topic before you think I have a vendetta against you or something like that. Good luck with your predictions and I hope we'll see some amazing numbers this December!

 

[Chris1964]

New releases

{2011.11.02}

[3DS] Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime 3 <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.090)

[PS3] Battlefield 3 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665)
[PS3] Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception # <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥5.980)
[PS3] Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception [Original Dual Shock 3 Package] <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥9.980)
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors Online: Souten Ranbu - 4-Year Anniversary Pack <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥8.800)
[PS3] Warriors Orochi Z (PlayStation 3 the Best) <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥3.990)

[360] Battlefield 3 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665)

{2011.11.03}

[3DS] 3DS Ice White <H-W> (Nintendo) (¥15.000)
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥4.800)
[3DS] Nicola Kanshuu: Model Oshare Audition 2 <SLG> (Alchemist) (¥5.980)
[3DS] Azito 3D <SLG> (Hamster) (¥5.229)
[3DS] Dog School: Lovely Puppy <ETC> (Starfish SD) (¥5.040)

[PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 <SPT> (Konami) (¥4.980)

[WII] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 <SPT> (Konami) (¥4.980)

[PS2] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 <SPT> (Konami) (¥4.980)

 

[Piercedveil]

Wow, 3DS going strong.

 

[walking fiend]

You can't be that dense...

Do you understand that all I said to you was that Amazon wasn't a good argument to prove that MK7 could destroy all FW franchise records? or that 3DS will sell more than 600.000 in one week? Is that so hard? Really?

Not to mention that your prediction based on Amazon was utter and complete crap. Do you want more crap?

The Media Create Week (Nov 28 - Dec 4) MK7 will be top seller by a wide margin. Mario Land 3D will continue to sell though. Need for Speed will be dead the next week.

I have more!:

The Media Create Week (Dec 5 - Dec 11) MH3G will be top seller by a wide margin. Mario Kart 7 will continue to sell though. Sonic Generations will be dead the next week (or that same week).

And you know what's better? I've made all this predictions without the help of Amazon. iTrue story, I swear.

Seeing how obtuse you are with Amazon I'll drop the topic before you think I have a vendetta against you or something like that. Good luck with your predictions and I hope we'll see some amazing numbers this December!

You didn't have to make it personal really, you know?

Anyhow, I insist that using these type of data for predictions pays well. I have participated in 3 predictions league since my joining to gaf and posted my predictions early as well, result:

September 2011 NPD Prediction Results

Units

1. walking fiend - 76,000
2. Elios83 - 110,000
3. siyrobbo - 160,000

Results By Units By Points
1 149398 FINALFANTASYDOG 131,09% FINALFANTASYDOG
2 191401 Kurosaki Ichigo 178,85% Kurosaki Ichigo
3 210989 walking fiend 188,92% walking fiend

Results By Units By Points
1 55501 walking fiend 75,09% FINALFANTASYDOG
2 130485 lunchwithyuzo 77,33% ULTROS!
3 153291 ULTROS! 79,57% walking fiend

I also predicted the top 5 software last December with very close numbers (EM 1.25m), early in the December. It's a daunting procedure to actually make good use of these kind of data along a lot of other data, and so I don't participate unless I have time, but it can actually pay off. As I said, you have to know how to interpret the raw data.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Why is 3DS Winning Eleven launching so much later than the rest? That's going to kill any sales it'd have gotten?

It's like WE Wii all over again. :/

 

[walking fiend]

Why is 3DS Winning Eleven launching so much later than the rest? That's going to kill any sales it'd have gotten?

It's like WE Wii all over again. :/

Probably to utilize increased installed based and holiday.

 

[Chris1964]

1*: [WII] Rhythm Heaven (Nintendo) {2011.07.21} - 118.173 / 517.691
2*: [WII] Just Dance Wii (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} - 90.039 / 135.619

 

[specialguy]

360 whoopin up on that PS2 yo.

 

[Truth101]

So next week, the 3DS gets-

-A New color
-Mario: 3D Land
-Slime Mori Mori
-other software

It will be interesting to see how high the sales rises, whether we will see some old titles brought back into the charts and how well the new titles that aren't Mario/DQ sell.

It is a good time to be participating in a Sales-Age thread.

 

[walking fiend]

So next week, the 3DS gets-

-A New color
-Mario: 3D Land
-Slime Mori Mori
-other software

It will be interesting to see how high the sales rises, whether we will see some old titles brought back into the charts and how well the new titles that aren't Mario/DQ sell.

It is a good time to be participating in a Sales-Age thread.

what new color?! I thought White was for December, not November? not sure though!

 

[watershed]

Will be interesting to see how the 3ds matches up with the ds numbers through the rest of the year. I predict it will easily beat the ds numbers for the next couple weeks because of the new colors and big games dropping. But I don't think it will match the high point of the ds sales for those 3 weeks in december.

 

[cw_sasuke]

what new color?! I thought White was for December, not November? not sure though!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=32166211&postcount=102

Erm....

 

[AlexMeloche]

Damn @ 3DS.

I'm happy.

 

[walking fiend]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=32166211&postcount=102

Erm....

thx! seems I was busy replying

So, we will have really high numbers for the week after the next one.

btw, does any one have any idea why they are releasing the bundles only in Europe?

 

[Kenka]

Good graph Chris. May we see holidays surge for both titles ? I definitely hope so, I can't wait to witness Massive meltdowns.

 

[Chris1964]

btw, does any one have any idea why they are releasing the bundles only in Europe?

This isn't a known yet. NoE announced them early, maybe NoA will have something too.

Just Dance is described as the dark horse for the holidays from some retailers.

 

[Sadist]

Things will be very interesting next week.

 

[walking fiend]

This isn't a known yet. NoE announced them early, maybe NoA will have something too.

I see, thx.

what about Japan?

I am totally clueless when it comes to stuff like these. I believe there are some not so obvious factors when they decide to put a color somewhere first, while not somewhere else, like delivering certain messages or because of psychological effects or cultural differences, things like these.

---
dark horse is a bad thing, right? means that Just Dance won't be a hit? Was it expected to be a hit?

 

[Chris1964]

ha, thx.

what about Japan then?

Japan doesn't need them. They aren't limited but regular editions, NoE will keep publishing for a long time in an attempt to differentiate 3DS from DS.

 

[Thoraxes]

Christmas is going to be a very interesting season, that's or sure. I wonder how much power MH has in it for this season?

I'm scared and excited at the same time. Fernando would be having a good time in he wasn't still banned (I think).

 

[Mpl90]

Good graph Chris. May we see holidays surge for both titles ? I definitely hope so, I can't wait to witness Massive meltdowns.

Rhythm Heaven will have a new advertising campaign... and I think JD will have too...it's Nintendo after all.
And this Holiday, we can expect Nintendogs and Zelda rises as well.

 

[Michan]

Does anybody have the latest LTD figures for NSMB Wii/DS? I'll be needing them for the thread after next!

 

[Chris1964]

Does anybody have the latest LTD figures for NSMB Wii/DS? I'll be needing them for the thread after next!

Media Create: 4.345.127 through 2 October

 

[Saiyar]

Does anybody have the latest LTD figures for NSMB Wii/DS? I'll be needing them for the thread after next!

Edit: getting the sales threads confused.

 

[donny2112]

Just strange to see all year round the PSP and PS3 boasting pretty good software sales but the Hardware never exactly matched up. Good thing the both of them are boasting good software sales unlike when Wii hit market saturation.

Multiple "no"s. Wii has consistently sold software much better than PS3 and usually more than PSP. Regardless, it's nowhere near a "market saturation." It's been dying since 2008 in Japan due to lack of frontline support from third-parties and Nintendo not doing enough to counteract that. This is just a continuation of the last three years. It's not some kind of "saturation" point on the hardware. To be that, it'd have to have had continual good support and sales just taper off despite continuing great software sales. That just hasn't been the case. It was starved of support and this is a result.

Graphical illustration of Wii's software sales compared to PSP/PS3 over the years (Jan-Sept.)

Media Create August 8-14 2005

Hardware:
NDS - 103,095
...
That week was the first to record insane sales on the DS hardware front.

That was the launch of the Red DS. New color effect.

 

[boingball]

wow at those 3DS HW numbers compared to the SW numbers. Has the 3DS already been hacked?

 

[Truth101]

Does anybody have the latest LTD figures for NSMB Wii/DS? I'll be needing them for the thread after next!

DS 2006-05-25 New Super Mario Bros. Nintendo 6,160,958
Wii 2009-12-03 New Super Mario Bros. Wii Nintendo 4,264,980

Going by Garaph

 

[Aizu_Itsuko]

360 whoopin up on that PS2 yo.

I told you last week, the 360 is on fire in Japan!

 

[Michan]

Media Create: 4.345.127 through 2 October

Thanks, Chris.

DS 2006-05-25 New Super Mario Bros. Nintendo 6,160,958

And thanks, Truth101!

 

[Chris1964]

December prediction will be something like that

Total software
Total hardware
3DS hardware
Vita hardware

No individual games

 

[Michan]

December rediction will be something like that

Total software
Total hardware
3DS hardware
Vita hardware

No individual games

Hardware is a blind guess. Nobody is going to know how many hardware units Nintendo and Sony are preparing for the season, although the PSP/PS3 launches could give clues to Vita.

 

[Erethian]

dark horse is a bad thing, right? means that Just Dance won't be a hit? Was it expected to be a hit?

Dark horse means that retailers think Just Dance could be an unexpected hit.

 

[Rated-Rsuperstar]

Top 2 3DS games combined are 15k. People are really only buying a system for Monster Hunter. Japan you crazy.

 

[Orgen]

You didn't have to make it personal really, you know?

Anyhow, I insist that using these type of data for predictions pays well. I have participated in 3 predictions league since my joining to gaf and posted my predictions early as well, result:

I also predicted the top 5 software last December with very close numbers (EM 1.25m), early in the December. It's a daunting procedure to actually make good use of these kind of data along a lot of other data, and so I don't participate unless I have time, but it can actually pay off. As I said, you have to know how to interpret the raw data.

Maybe crap was a little harsh, but your prediction was meaningless as I've proved to you. Apologies if it made you feel bad, I don't have anything against you believe me

Hard predictions Chris but I like it! I hope Kurosaki keeps running the Prediction League in December to get our Software dose ;D

 

[Berksy]

Garaph 1st week numbers for other Tetris games this gen...

[360] Tetris: the Grand Master Ace (AQ interactive) 1,531
[NDS] Tetris DS (Nintendo) 365,097
[NDS] Tetris Party Premium (Hudson) 18,076
[WII] Tetris Party Deluxe (Hudson) n/a

Thanks all for replies. I was asking about Nintendo Tetris.

Just wow. I knew Nintendo did some PR but then still...

And new Hudson game looks good too.

 

[Takao]

This isn't a known yet. NoE announced them early, maybe NoA will have something too.

Just Dance is described as the dark horse for the holidays from some retailers.

Road to 500k!

 

[Izayoi]

wow at those 3DS HW numbers compared to the SW numbers. Has the 3DS already been hacked?

Not for 3DS games it hasn't.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

wow at those 3DS HW numbers compared to the SW numbers. Has the 3DS already been hacked?

>implying there are games to pirate

 

[mclem]

Guys, calm down. Remember: the 3DS is dead already. Gaf decided that months ago with the power of nerd foresight.

The most encouraging thing for the Wii U is that GAF's uncertain about it.

 

[Izayoi]

>implying there are games to pirate

Dohohoho.

Spoiler

You're right, though.

 

[king zell]

1-19-2012

nice boxart

 

[cw_sasuke]

Not that big of an IP but it seems that 3DS is getting his first Yugi-Oh title next february

http://www.konamiworldchampionship....012-beginning-the-legendary-number-announced-

 

[Mpl90]

...Ah, it's the continuation of the Tournament Series on DS.
This time branded with the last Yu-Gi-Oh! series.

 

[Mpl90]

http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=zg_bs_unv_vg_1_2225588051_1#2

29th position is nice.

 

[Exterminieren]

New releases

{2011.11.02}

[3DS] Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime 3 <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.090)


{2011.11.03}

[3DS] 3DS Ice White <H-W> (Nintendo) (¥15.000)
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥4.800)

andherewego.gif

 

[GCX]

Media Create threads are getting really interesting again. It's been a while.

 

[GDGF]

...Ah, it's the continuation of the Tournament Series on DS.
This time branded with the last Yu-Gi-Oh! series.

Really wonder how they're going to do this, what with the AR and all.

First time I'm interested in hearing about a Yugioh game

 

[Cygnus X-1]

3DS outselling all other consoles combined and then some. That's worrying.

This could be the only good sign for Nintendo in recent times.

 

[squall23]

Anybody got Tales of Xillia life time sales?

Also. RHYTHM HEAVEN SHALL NOT DIE.

 

[Kenka]

Regarding the Amazon link posted by Mpl90, I find it rather surprising that Super Mario 3D Land is only 20th on the list. No word from the retailers about pre-orders ?

Anybody got Tales of Xillia life time sales?

Also. RHYTHM HEAVEN SHALL NOT DIE.

Given the sales drop after W1, I'd say <700k with much certainty.