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[Takao]

The original Ore no Shikabane did more than 400k. But that was on PSone... SCEJ hopes to make this a franchise, and the PSP remake looks quite good, so I hope the results are positive.

Some of the unsold copies of Xillia.

Haha, holy crap.

 

[lobdale]

I can't say for sure, but all those things say "sample copy" on them which means they're probably just empty boxes... looks like a Book-Off so they could very easily be used copies.

 

[Chris1964]

Boxes at shelves are always empty.

I don't think these are used copies with 4.980 price when amazon has it new for 5.400 and the exchange price at sofmap is 700 yen.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

My initial thought was "Were the retailers among those thinking it had a chance to hit a million!?", but I guess its legs are even blunter than Tales norm.

EDIT: This reminded me to add Xillia to the ">500K start, <1M finish" group. It does stick out from the rest.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Something like this would have more fun

total software
total hardware
and maybe 3DS hw and Vita hw too since these 2 will be the highlights of December

Is it much fun though? Total software figures would be like 12m thus making any other entry (nearly) pointless for the units ranking, and at the same time with such high on those the percentage ranking would be very biased to smaller numbers like Vita HW.

 

[Celine]

Holy shit

ahah indeed, those were epic days.

Only 8 systems (NES,SNES,PS1,PS2,Wii,GB/C,GBA,PSP) have LTD bigger than 8.4 million recorded by DS in that single year.

 

[Chris1964]

Is it much fun though? Total software figures would be like 12m thus making any other entry (nearly) pointless for the units ranking, and at the same time with such high on those the percentage ranking would be very biased to smaller numbers like Vita HW.

You post the lists, you decide.

 

[BurntPork]

ahah indeed, those were epic days.

Only 8 systems (NES,SNES,PS1,PS2,Wii,GB/C,GBA,PSP) have LTD bigger than 8.4 million recorded by DS in that single year.

That's an average of 161k per week.

lolWUT

Yeah, nothing's ever going to beat DS. It's not possible.

 

[Kenshin001]

I can't say for sure, but all those things say "sample copy" on them which means they're probably just empty boxes... looks like a Book-Off so they could very easily be used copies.

Do BookOff sell games new? The BookOff I go to only has used games.

 

[cvxfreak]

Boxes at shelves are always empty.

I don't think these are used copies with 4.980 price when amazon has it new for 5.400 and the exchange price at sofmap is 700 yen.

Wow -- that is definitely way too low for a game as recent and for as high a MSRP as Xillia.

I checked Trader's values as well -- the initial and regular Xillia copies go for ¥1200. Biohazard Revival Selection, meanwhile, buys back for ¥2000 even though it was released on the same day as Xillia.

That doesn't necessarily mean Xillia is a bomb or anything, but it indicates that used copies are accumulating at a rate that influences buyback prices negatively.

 

[LOCK]

3DS has the rest of the year plus 9 from next year until it hits the right side. It can miss any "2 million in November+December" predictions and still pass some of these, but GBA will be a biiit harder.

The 3DS should come very close to the GBA, hell maybe even pass it.

 

[BurntPork]

The 3DS should come very close to the GBA, hell maybe even pass it.

...

Uh-huh.



Yeah, no. Seriously, wat.

 

[test_account]

The 3DS has to sell about 170k - 175k each week in average for the next upcoming 15 weeks to be able to aproximately match the GBA's first year.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

...

Uh-huh.



Yeah, no. Seriously, wat.

It would take about 2.8 million in that time, which even in its heyday DS only passed once. Probably would have in 2005-2006 if not for the January/February hardware shortages, though.

 

[walking fiend]

It would take about 2.8 million in that time, which even in its heyday DSonly passed once. Probably would have in 2005-2006 if not for the January/February hardware shortages, though.

For all we know, 3DS has been performing better than DS so far, so, why not? I think at least for the next year, 3DS will continue to perform better than DS. All the doom and gloom seems to become less and less relevant as weeks have passed since price drop and esp. 3DS conference.

 

[m.i.s.]

The 3DS should come very close to the GBA, maybe even pass it.

HAHAHA. Good one.

For all we know, 3DS has been performing better than DS so far, so, why not? I think at least for the next year, 3DS will continue to perform better than DS. All the doom and gloom seems to become less and less relevant as weeks have passed since price drop and esp. 3DS conference.

So is 3DS performing better than DS or not? Make a verifiable assertion than make a comparison with DS.

 

[BurntPork]

For all we know, 3DS has been performing better than DS so far, so, why not? I think at least for the next year, 3DS will continue to perform better than DS. All the doom and gloom seems to become less and less relevant as weeks have passed since price drop and esp. 3DS conference.

It still doesn't seem likely. When I read that that post, the first thing that came to mind was that graph comic (you know the one I'm talking about). I just don't see it happening. The 3DS line-up is great, but it can't possibly cause the weekly average for the next 16 weeks to be more than triple the average it was at between the conference and the pink launch.

So is 3DS performing better than DS or not? Make a verifiable assertion than make a comparison with DS.

For the past month or so, it has been performing better than DS did in the corresponding week in 2005.

 

[walking fiend]

So is 3DS performing better than DS or not? Make a verifiable assertion than make a comparison with DS.

what part of 'it has been performing better so far' is not verifiable?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=32363003&postcount=163

if Joshua believes that if it wasn't for shortages, DS could sell 2.8m in 2005, it is totally expectable for 3DS to do so unless for shortages; but since it seems even SM3DL didn't sell out as Chris mentioned, there's good chance that there won't be shortages this time around

It still doesn't seem likely. When I read that that post, the first thing that came to mind was that graph comic (you know the one I'm talking about). I just don't see it happening. The 3DS line-up is great, but it can't possibly cause the weekly average for the next 16 weeks to be more than triple the average it was at between the conference and the pink launch.

[IWATA MODE] BP, please understand [/IWATA MODE] that the in the graph I showed above, DS sales exploded in November and December despite this strong of software disparity between post November and pre November; that is this time around not only holiday effect will play its part, but software will play a great part.

What people are forgetting, is that 3DS was supposed to storm out of the gate, it didn't happen mostly because lack of software and a high priced hardware, now that those too issues aren't around, we should expect it to storm

 

[test_account]

what part of 'it has been performing better so far' is not verifiable?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=32363003&postcount=163

if Joshua believes that if it wasn't for shortages, DS could sell 2.8m in 2005, it is totally expectable for 3DS to do so unless for shortages; but since it seems even SM3DL didn't sell out as Chris mentioned, there's good chance that there won't be shortages this time around

It wasnt for whole 2005, but selling 2.8 million in 15-16 weeks between November 2005 and February 2006. The DS managed to do this one time in 2006-2007, where it sold over 3.2 million units in that 15-16 weeks period.

Launch alligned, the 3DS is about 500k behind the DS after 36 weeks has passed. The 3DS has been preforming better than the DS lately, but it still have some catching up to do because of the slower start.

 

[walking fiend]

It wasnt for whole 2005, but selling 2.8 million in 15-16 weeks between November 2005 and February 2006. The DS managed to do this one time in 2006-2007, where it sold over 3 million units in that 15-16 weeks period.

refer to the graph please, in 4 ending weeks of 2005 alone, it did 1.7m; We have 5 weeks before reaching week 49th.

Launch alligned, the 3DS is about 500k behind the DS after 36 weeks has passed. The 3DS has been preforming better than the DS lately, but it still have some catching up to do because of the slower start.

it's not a fair comparison; DS launch included a holiday season. I am comparing a year to year period, and 3DS is performing better when you time align them which is what you need to see how it will continue to perform in the next two months compared to a similar year of DS.

 

[test_account]

refer to the graph please, in 4 ending weeks of 2005 alone, it did 1.7m;

Yeah, if you expect the 3DS to match that, and still contunie to do very strong in January and Februrary, then it has a chance It has to do about 170k - 175k in average each week for the upcoming 15-16 weeks.

 

[BurntPork]

what part of 'it has been performing better so far' is not verifiable?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=32363003&postcount=163

if Joshua believes that if it wasn't for shortages, DS could sell 2.8m in 2005, it is totally expectable for 3DS to do so unless for shortages; but since it seems even SM3DL didn't sell out as Chris mentioned, there's good chance that there won't be shortages this time around



[IWATA MODE] BP, please understand [/IWATA MODE] that the in the graph I showed above, DS sales exploded in November and December despite this strong of software disparity between post November and pre November; that is this time around not only holiday effect will play its part, but software will play a great part.

What people are forgetting, is that 3DS was supposed to storm out of the gate, it didn't happen mostly because lack of software and a high priced hardware, now that those too issues aren't around, we should expect it to storm

I think it lacks the casual software needed for that storm, though. Its line-up looks more like a PSP line-up with Nintendo games. I don't think we'll see it hit 600k in a week this year, especially since it competes directly with Vita while DS was off on a whole different tangent and PSP was not strong back then.

 

[walking fiend]

Yeah, if you expect the 3DS to match that, and still contunie to do very strong in January and Februrary, then it has a chance It has to do about 170k - 175k in average each week for the upcoming 15-16 weeks.

No, I do not. I expect 3DS to sell better than DS did in both November and December. DS sold well over 2m, I expect better software line-up and distribution to help it reach 2.8m.

I think it lacks the casual software needed for that storm, though. Its line-up looks more like a PSP line-up with Nintendo games. I don't think we'll see it hit 600k in a week this year, especially since it competes directly with Vita while DS was off on a whole different tangent and PSP was not strong back then.

3DS already has a very strong casual line-up, including MK and SM3DL; and believe it or not, core gamers that play MH are more in number than those who won't buy a Nintendo console because they already play Angry Birds on their smartphones, or whatever Japanese people might want to play. Also, notice that casual line-ups have a more gradual effect in sales of software than a system being bumped by core fans; that is it may sell less in the end, but it will be more front-loaded.

 

[test_account]

No, I do not. I expect 3DS to sell better than DS did in both November and December. DS sold well over 2m, I expect better software line-up and distribution to help it reach 2.8m.

Technically, if it surpasses it, it has also matched it But sure, if you expect it to do even better, then it has a chance yes.

 

[Orgen]

Predictions

[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Extend (Sega) - 178.000
[PSP] Ore no Shikabane o Koete Yuke (SCE) - 34.000
[WII] Sengoku Basara 3: Utage (Capcom) - 37.000
[PS3] Sengoku Basara 3: Utage (Capcom) - 119.000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker HD Edition (Konami) - 51.000
[WII] PokePark 2: Beyond the World (Pokemon Co.) - 43.000

 

[Zoe]

Damn, all the Tales games still have high used prices? I was hoping to pick them up in a couple of weeks

 

[walking fiend]

Technically, if it surpasses it, it has also matched it But sure, if you expect it to do even better, then it has a chance yes.

I think the next two weeks should be a good measure of how much good software maybe of help to 3DS.

 

[test_account]

I think the next two weeks should be a good measure of how much good software maybe of help to 3DS.

Is there any other games than SM3DL that is out in the next two weeks? (i know that SM3DL is already out this week).

 

[BurntPork]

Is there any other games than SM3DL that is out in the next two weeks? (i know that SM3DL is already out this week).

Rocket Slime 3 came out this week, and Ice White likely had an effect as well.

 

[test_account]

Rocket Slime 3 came out this week, and Ice White likely had an effect as well.

Ah yes, i forgot about those. Anything else?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

For all we know, 3DS has been performing better than DS so far, so, why not? I think at least for the next year, 3DS will continue to perform better than DS. All the doom and gloom seems to become less and less relevant as weeks have passed since price drop and esp. 3DS conference.

Now that's a tall order. DS's second year is when it started hitting 100+K all the time.

 

[walking fiend]

Is there any other games than SM3DL that is out in the next two weeks? (i know that SM3DL is already out this week).

well, the reason that I said next two weeks, is that actually no major game is coming out in the second week; it is obvious that we will have a great bump this week due to 3dl, but the question is whether it'll carry into the next week. (RS3 is pretty small, btw)

Now that's a tall order. DS's second year is when it started hitting 100+K all the time.

I guess tall order is not what I am thinking!

fake edit: ok, it didn't mean that! Yes, but first year it perform well over 2m too in the 4th quarter. I think the second year it just had an excellent performance during the rest of the year as well.

 

[donny2112]

The DS managed to do this one time in 2006-2007, where it sold over 3.2 million units in that 15-16 weeks period.

It was supply-constrained that entire time. December, in particular, was at least a few 100K under what it could've been if supply had been there. The shortage didn't let up until Golden Week in April 2007.

The 3DS has been preforming better than the DS lately, but it still have some catching up to do because of the slower start.

DS also had some huge supply-problems between January 1, 2006 and the DSLite's launch in March. 3DS can make up some major ground in that part.


When first looking at the graph, I thought it meant through the end of the CY, which would've been end of December. I thought it was a bit too much to overcome GBA in that case. However knowing that it goes into February, 3DS could very well pass up GBA, if it has a December similar to what the DS did in 2005 without the supply-shortages that followed.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Ah yes, i forgot about those. Anything else?

I don't think anything else major.

When are Inazuma 11(November?) and Resident Evil Revelations(February?) supposed to launch? While obviously not Mario or Monster Hunter Levels of sales those both are still pretty significant franchises.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I think it lacks the casual software needed for that storm, though. Its line-up looks more like a PSP line-up with Nintendo games. I don't think we'll see it hit 600k in a week this year, especially since it competes directly with Vita while DS was off on a whole different tangent and PSP was not strong back then.

I agree the 3DS equivalent to Touch Generations is missing, but this year's 3rd party lineup is still very much DS-esque (Inazuma Eleven, Love Plus, Slime Morimori, SD Gundam, etc). The only real PSP-like title is Monster Hunter, next year is really when the 3rd party PSP franchises are rolling in (Tekken, Ace Combat, MGS, Kingdom Hearts, etc).

Nintendo also seems to be positioning their casual growth titles for 2012 imo. Iwata's already talked about them making new casual IPs that will be rolled out next year, and they also have sequels to stuff like Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Collection and Girls Mode.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Boxes at shelves are always empty.

I don't think these are used copies with 4.980 price when amazon has it new for 5.400 and the exchange price at sofmap is 700 yen.

Well, i'd really like to know which is that Book-off shop which sells new games... you really think a PS3 used game is sold at 2000yen a couple of months since its release ?
this summer i was there and Yakuza of the End, used, at Book-Off Akihabara, was priced around 4900yen, it was August, the game was released in June iirc, if you want to find a used PS3 game at 2000yen, you can only find games such as Ridge Racer 7, Lair, and all the games from the starting line-up

people should know what are talking about before sentencing words as "failure" or "unsold copies"....

 

[Chris1964]

Well, i'd really like to know which is that Book-off shop which sells new games... you really think a PS3 used game is sold at 2000yen a couple of months since its release ?
this summer i was there and Yakuza of the End, used, at Book-Off Akihabara, was priced around 4900yen, it was August, the game was released in June iirc, if you want to find a used PS3 game at 2000yen, you can only find games such as Ridge Racer 7, Lair, and all the games from the starting line-up

people should know what are talking about before sentencing words as "failure" or "unsold copies"....

Where did I say anything for "2000 yen new price" and "failure"?
Even if these are used copies we know there are tens of thousands unsold copies of Xillia in Japan right now unless all 3 trackers have undertracked its sales.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

I don't think anything else major.

When are Inazuma 11(November?) and Resident Evil Revelations(February?) supposed to launch? While obviously not Mario or Monster Hunter Levels of sales those both are still pretty significant franchises.

If my memory is not failing me Inazuma eleven is due out at some point in december, whereas Residen evil revelations is scheduled for early 2012(like February/March).

 

[Gianni Merryman]

I think it lacks the casual software needed for that storm, though. Its line-up looks more like a PSP line-up with Nintendo games. I don't think we'll see it hit 600k in a week this year, especially since it competes directly with Vita while DS was off on a whole different tangent and PSP was not strong back then.

My thought exactly - although I don't use the term "casual game" - what is missing in 3DS lineup so far is some huge hits like Brain training, Brain academy or Rhythm heaven, since Nintendogs hasn't lived up to its previous outcomes on DS.

 

[Mpl90]

Inazuma Eleven Go - 15th December
Resident Evil: Revelations - 26th January

So strange seeing that, of all the third party great offerings for the month, IE is the only one lacking of a bundle / limited edition with the console.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

You post the lists, you decide.

I just post them if there's enthusiasm, mine ended a few months ago, so really I was just wondering if going by using similar sized entries so rankings aren't tilted to one particular entry but we can do whatever, I've only seen Road comment on it, anyone else what do you want to predict for a (blind, month-and-a-half ahead) grand December prediction?

 

[Mpl90]

Comgnet Weekly Sales Chart

Updated: Nov 07, 2011 (Mon) 08:00
Index aggregation period: 06 November 2011 ~ October 31, 2011

[3DS] 3D Super Mario Land - 553pt
[PS3] Battlefield 3 - 290pt
[PSP] Final Fantasy Zero formula - 246pt
[PS3] Uncharted - Atlantis sleep in the desert - - 209pt
[Wii] Kirby of the Stars Wii - 163pt
[PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 - 115pt
[3DS] big pirate group and tail swelling Slime Dragon Quest 3 - 72pt
[Wii] JUST DANCE Wii (Just Dance Wii) - 53pt
[PS2] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 - 31pt
[PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 - 27pt
[Xbox360] Battlefield 3 - 26pt
[PSP] NARUTO-Naruto - Shippuuden Narutimate Impact - 26pt
[Wii] Rhythm Heaven for Everyone - 21pt
[3DS] &#9734; supervision Audition 2 stylish models nicola - 20pt
[PS3] DEAD ISLAND - 17pt
[Wii] Winning Eleven Playmaker 2012 - 16pt
[Wii] Family fishing is your computer Bundle - 16pt
[PSP] 5D's TAGFORCE6 Yugioh - 16pt
[PS3] PlayStation3 the Best convoy vanished golden sword and Uncharted - 15pt
[PS3] Macross F ~ ~ Sayonara wing Hybrid Pack Movie - 15pt

Comgnet Daily Preorder Chart

Updated: Nov 07, 2011 (Mon) 08:00
Ranking is closed at November 06, 2011

[3DS] Monster 3G (Limited Edition) - 443pt
[PSP] Hatsune Miku-Project DIVA-extend - 408pt
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 318pt
[3DS] Monster 3G (slide pad Bundle) - 224pt
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Subtitled) - 184pt
[PS3] Mobile Suit Gundam VS Extreme - 152pt
[PS3] PS3 Sengoku BASARA3 Feast - 151pt
[PS3] Armored Core 5 - 124Pt
[PS3] OG Super Robot Taisen 2 - 106pt
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII&#12532;&#12455;&#12523;&#12469;&#12473; - 94Pt
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 - 92pt
[Wii] The Legend of Zelda Sword Ward Sky (with a special CD) - 79pt
[NDS] One Piece Gigant Battle the New World 2 (Limited Edition) - 78pt
[PSP] Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha A's PORTABLE-THE GEARS OF DESTINY-GOD BOX Limited Edition - 71pt
[Wii] Sengoku BASARA3 Banquet - 57pt
[PSP] Seventh Dragon 2020 (Limited Edition) - 54pt
[PSP] To Aru Kagaku no Railgun (Limited Edition) - 53Pt
[PSP] special government agencies Seventh Dragon 2020 "cloud masses" set decoration only - 51pt
[Wii] Zelda 25 Pack anniversary Sky Sword Legend of Zelda Sword - 49pt
[PSV] GOLF6 everyone - 45pt

MH3G - 667pt
MH3 - 517pt

Mario Kart 7 - 92pt
Mario Kart Wii - 99pt

The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword - 128pt

 

[Spiegel]

You can add this

Weekly Sales Chart
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 614pt
http://nipponsalesage.blogspot.com/2010/05/comgnet-530.html

 

[Mpl90]

You can add this

Weekly Sales Chart
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 614pt
http://nipponsalesage.blogspot.com/2010/05/comgnet-530.html

Oh, so somewhere there are the actual sales pt of the others... let's see if there is Galaxy 1 as well...

EDIT: Not on the site
So, at least with pt, a little lower than Galaxy 2.
But since we are talking about a console with only 2,2 millions install base, and not with almost 10 millions, the Comgnet / actual thousands sold could be different.
It'll be interesting to see.

P.S. Surprised to see Nicola Audition 2 up there O_O

 

[Diprosalic]

Comgnet Weekly Sales Chart

what the hell am i looking at?

 

[yurinka]

About the DS vs 3DS discussions, please remember that 3DS is going to receive this Christmas with Mario Land, Mario Kart and Monster Hunter as recent releases so its JP Christmas numbers may be the highest of the 3DS history.

 

[Erethian]

what the hell am i looking at?

Preorder interest ranked by points for a single chain of stores.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Preorder interest ranked by points for a single chain of stores.

"Interest" being...? I've dropped in and out of these threads for years, but I've never quite understood - or seen an explanation of - the Comgnet figures. What do the points represent for preorders or sales? Is a point a customer who has preordered/bought, or is it something else?

 

[Erethian]

"Interest" being...? I've dropped in and out of these threads for years, but I've never quite understood - or seen an explanation of - the Comgnet figures. What do the points represent for preorders or sales? Is a point a customer who has preordered/bought, or is it something else?

I'm not exactly sure, and a google search isn't being very helpful.

Perhaps unsurprisingly a lot of people post Comgnet stuff without ever explaining (or understanding, most likely) what it actually means.

Edit: I assume it's one point equals one pre-order, but who knows.

 

[Mpl90]

Mmh, I'll try to explain.
Comgnet is a retailer chain which makes available its preorder chart daily and its actual sales chart weekly.
In these charts the points represent how much a game is preordered / sold. Probably one point equal to 1 customer.
What is interesting about the Comgnet charts is that we can extrapolate what a game could have sold, or could sell if the release is not come yet, seeing for example the ratio Comgnet points / thousands sold of other games of the same series or similar when we are talking about the last day of preorders or the Weekly Sales Chart, or making comparisons through seeing how much points the precedent game had at the same distance from release.
And for doing this, there are some "rules" that normaly are respected.

- Games on a newly released platform, especially if it is growing fast, can have with preorders a Comgnet pt / real k sold ratio a little bigger than one or equal to one, even if they are RPG.
- Nintendo games tend to have a ratio of one, or even under one, especially if it is a casual title ( example: Wii Party did 59pt in preorders )
- Casual games are not preordered a lot.
- RPG are heavily preordered, and they can have even a ratio of 2.
- The ratio is higher on Sony consoles than Nintendo ones, even for the same genre ( example: Taiko on PSP did 180pt of preorders, the first Taiko on Wii 60pt )
- If a console suffer with low sales, ratio can be high, but if the console start spreading, the ratio will lower itself ( PS3 is the main example about it, with PSP )
- Considering sales points instead of preorder points, the ratio normally is 2:1 (3:1 for some RPG, or just a bit lower than one or even one for casual games and some Nintendo franchises )