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[hiska-kun]

Media Create Sell-through

01./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 690.471 / NEW <64,63%> [Units shipped => 1.068.344]

Bundle Sales

00./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV (4)(PlayStation 4 1TB Final Fantasy XV Luna Edition) <BUN> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥39.980) - 63.000 / NEW

http://www.m-create.com/ranking/

_____

So, there're almost 400k still on shelves.
The worst thing is that first 3 days sell-through was reported to be ~60% (640k sales). That means that on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, FFXV only managed to sell extra 50k units. That's terrible, and second week drop might be huge.

 

[Square2015]

^YSO average is predicting 80k second week

 

[Ōkami]

I saw that post on two pages.

FFXV had Square Enix's highets ever launch sales, should also see the harshest ever drop. Mainly because on digital that game is more expensive then retail (even without discounts) for whatever reason.

 

[hiska-kun]

^YSO average is predicting 80k second week

That number still seems optimistic at the moment.

 

[Ōkami]

Wait, then the Final Fantasy bundle didn't do all that better than the Dragon Quest Heroes one, that one did around 60k too.

 

[duckroll]

I think the drop will be extra harsh because the first week was 6 days rather than 4 days. So it was definitely inflated.

 

[zeromcd73]

http://gekicore-gamelife.com/ranking/15623.html

I believe this store is a bit different from the one we usual get the first day sell-through from. Still interesting though so will post.

First day sell-though
44% - Yakuza 6
38% - Kunio-kun
33% - Megami Meguri
20% - PuyoPuyo Chronicle
2% - Miitopia

In regards to next week, says that SaGa's preorders aren't increasing much.

 

[MANUELF]

I saw that post on two pages.

FFXV had Square Enix's highets ever launch sales, should also see the harshest ever drop. Mainly because on digital that game is more expensive then retail (even without discounts) for whatever reason.

The only reason it had the highest launch sales is because is the first one with a simultaneous worldwide release but Im sure you already knew that

 

[hiska-kun]

http://gekicore-gamelife.com/ranking/15623.html

I believe this store is a bit different from the one we usual get the first day sell-through from. Still interesting though so will post.

First day sell-though
44% - Yakuza 6
38% - Kunio-kun
33% - Megami Meguri
20% - PuyoPuyo Chronicle
2% - Miitopia

In regards to next week, says that SaGa's preorders aren't increasing much.

Well, the numbers of the blog that I post are Media Create leaks, so we can call it "official".

It seems Miitopia had a big shipment. Nintendo wanted to become the title a great hit, so probably they managed to convince retailers to order a lot of copies. I wouldn't be surprised if shipment is similar to Super Mario Maker (~300k).

Still, maybe the fanbase of this game moved to smartphones, we will see if Miitopia manages to sell through the shipment or if it joins FFXV.

 

[zeromcd73]

Well, the numbers of the blog that I post are Media Create leaks, so we can call it "official".

It seems Miitopia had a big shipment. Nintendo wanted to become the title a great hit, so probably they managed to convince retailers to order a lot of copies. I wouldn't be surprised if shipment is similar to Super Mario Maker (~300k).

Still, maybe the fanbase of this game moved to smartphones, we will see if Miitopia manages to sell through the shipment or if it joins FFXV.

Ohhh cheers.

Blog also noted that Kunio and PuyoPuyo had really small shipments.

 

[Chris1964]

21./21. [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories # <RPG> (Capcom) {2016.10.08} (¥5.800)
22./00. [PS4] Resident Evil 6 <ADV> (Capcom) {2016.12.01} (¥2.800)
23./25. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990)
24./18. [PS4] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Special Edition <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) {2016.11.10} (¥5.980)
25./06. [PSV] Samurai Warriors: Sanada Maru # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2016.11.23} (¥6.800)
26./08. [3DS] Aikatsu Stars! My Special Appeal <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.11.24} (¥5.300)
27./34. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571)
28./31. [WIU] Paper Mario: Color Splash <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.10.13} (¥5.700)
29./00. [3DS] A-Train: City Simulator Neo # <SLG> (Artdink) {2016.12.01} (¥4.500)
30./00. [PS4] Resident Evil 4 <ADV> (Capcom) {2016.12.01} (¥2.800)
31./29. [3DS] PriPara Mezameyo! Megami no Dress Design # <ACT> (Takara Tomy) {2016.11.10} (¥5.400)
32./22. [PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.11.02} (¥7.600)
33./30. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.07.16} (¥4.800)
34./00. [PS4] Resident Evil 5 <ADV> (Capcom) {2016.12.01} (¥2.800)
35./14. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon Dual Pack {Pokemon Sun \ Pokemon Moon} <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥9.960)
36./11. [3DS] RPG Maker: Fes <ETC> (Kadokawa Games) {2016.11.24} (¥5.800)
37./00. [3DS] Disney Magic World 2 # <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.11.05} (¥5.690)
38./19. [PSV] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2016.11.10} (¥6.980)
39./38. [3DS] Dragon Ball: Fusions # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.08.04} (¥5.700)
40./07. [PS3] Samurai Warriors: Sanada Maru # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2016.11.23} (¥7.800)
41./44. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 # <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥5.700)
42./37. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2016.07.28} (¥4.800)
43./09. [PSV] Code: Realize - Shukufuku no Mirai # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2016.11.24} (¥6.300)
44./33. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.10.27} (¥6.100)
45./41. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2017 <SPT> (Konami) {2016.09.15} (¥7.600)
46./00. [WIU] Super Mario Maker # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.09.10} (¥5.700)
47./43. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.400)
48./00. [3DS] 12-Sai. Koisuru Diary <ADV> (Happinet) {2016.08.04} (¥5.815)
49./49. [3DS] Tomodachi Life [Nintendo Selects] <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.03.17} (¥2.700)
50./35. [PSV] World of Final Fantasy # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.10.27} (¥5.800)

Top 50

3DS - 22
PS4 - 14
PSV - 7
WIU - 5
PS3 - 1
XB1 - 1

SOFTWARE

+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|System |  This Week |  Last Week |  Last Year |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|  ALL  |  1.438.000 |    869.000 |    877.000 | 26.922.000 | 31.370.000 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+

 

[Chris1964]

We are approaching holidays, shipments will be inflated for many games. Yakuza is not Final Fantasy, it will have extra sales at weekend and next weeks. If Miitopia doesn't show Nintendo legs next weeks, it will be a lost case.

 

[hiska-kun]

Yeah, Yakuza still seems safe with 40%, it isn't frontloaded like FF. Some retailers are pointing this out.

 

[Chris1964]

Final Fantasy XV was supposed to be a good game with good word of mouth that would help its legs. If it didn't have how bigger disaster could it be from what it is now.

XIII sold 400k after its first week and it had a 1,5m opening.

 

[1st Course]

What's the expectations for Yakuza 6?

 

[hiska-kun]

What's the expectations for Yakuza 6?

Since everybody lowered expectations because the market conditions, I don't think anybody is expecting a opening like 3, 4 & 5 (over 350k).

So probably we have to look at 0.

01./00. [PS3] Yakuza 0 <ADV> (Sega) {2015.03.12} (¥8.845) - 145.823 / NEW
02./00. [PS4] Yakuza 0 <ADV> (Sega) {2015.03.12} (¥8.845) - 90.506 / NEW

~250k

 

[Chris1964]

Lack of PS3 has more to do than the famous dead Japan lately.

It gave additional sales at many games that aren't replaced.

 

[Oregano]

Well, the numbers of the blog that I post are Media Create leaks, so we can call it "official".

It seems Miitopia had a big shipment. Nintendo wanted to become the title a great hit, so probably they managed to convince retailers to order a lot of copies. I wouldn't be surprised if shipment is similar to Super Mario Maker (~300k).

Still, maybe the fanbase of this game moved to smartphones, we will see if Miitopia manages to sell through the shipment or if it joins FFXV.

Well I'm not in Japan but does the hypothetical Miitopia audience even know it exists at this point. It'd had very little spotlight.

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

So FF15 will never sell it's initial shipment, nor anywhere close.

 

[L~A]

Well, the numbers of the blog that I post are Media Create leaks, so we can call it "official".

It seems Miitopia had a big shipment. Nintendo wanted to become the title a great hit, so probably they managed to convince retailers to order a lot of copies. I wouldn't be surprised if shipment is similar to Super Mario Maker (~300k).

Still, maybe the fanbase of this game moved to smartphones, we will see if Miitopia manages to sell through the shipment or if it joins FFXV.

Hmm, got a bad feeling about Miitopia now, though I'd expect week-end sales to pick up. Word of mouth will truly make or break that game, and as Chris said, we will soon see which way it's going.

Oh yeah, curious about Megami Meguri too. It's a F2P title, so the game at retail is just a special edition with some goodies (which means sales aren't gonna be fantastic).

 

[hiska-kun]

Total Software Sales Comparison

Things improved thanks to the launch of Pokemon SM and FFXV. But still won't be enough to avoid another declining year.

 

[Chris1964]

NSW it is then.

 

[L~A]

Total Software Sales Comparison

Things improved thanks to the launch of Pokemon SM and FFXV. But still won't be enough to avoid another declining year.

If only Yo-kai Watch 3 hadn't underperformed like it did... same could be said about Puzzle & Dragons X, actually.

 

[Celine]

If only Yo-kai Watch 3 hadn't underperformed like it did... same could be said about Puzzle & Dragons X, actually.

HW is also going to be lower than the record-low 2015 YTD as expected after Nintendo postponed the Switch launch.
Everything but PS4 is going to be down compared the previous year and PS4 isn't performing really well.

There is a serious risk the 2016 HW YTD can be lower than 5 million units which is pitiful.

 

[hiska-kun]

Just for curiosity, here the sell-through comparision with FFXIII:

Media Create Sell-through

[PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 690.471 / NEW <64,63%> [Units shipped => 1.068.344]

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2009.12.17} (¥7.980) - 1.501.964 / NEW <83,96%> [Units shipped => 1.788.904]

 

[Nirolak]

Lack of PS3 has more to do than the famous dead Japan lately.

It gave additional sales at many games that aren't replaced.

That kind of illustrates the issue though, no?

The PS3's audience is fine with not upgrading despite the PS4 having what is pretty much going to be its biggest line-up of games.

If they're okay with just getting up and leaving, that's a whole lot of potential console customers out the door.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

That kind of illustrates the issue though, no?

The PS3's audience is fine with not upgrading despite the PS4 having what is pretty much going to be its biggest line-up of games.

If they're okay with just getting up and leaving, that's a whole lot of potential console customers out the door.

Wonder what will happen to the 10 million PS3 userbase.

 

[Nirolak]

Wonder what will happen to the 10 million PS3 userbase.

I suspect they'll disperse between other dedicated devices (including the PS4), mobile, and just not playing games anymore.

The main issue is that the total amount of dedicated device gamers is going down, which causes publishers to invest less in dedicated devices, which makes even less people want to keep using dedicated devices...

Basically the way you would reverse this is getting consumer excitement going for dedicated devices again to start broadly increasing publisher investment, but that's way easier to say than actually do.

 

[Takao]

Oh yeah, curious about Megami Meguri too. It's a F2P title, so the game at retail is just a special edition with some goodies (which means sales aren't gonna be fantastic).

how many tens of units must that be selling if it's ranked below dead rising 4

 

[DrWong]

NSW it is then.

:]

 

[Oregano]

I suspect they'll disperse between other dedicated devices (including the PS4), mobile, and just not playing games anymore.

The main issue is that the total amount of dedicated device gamers is going down, which causes publishers to invest less in dedicated devices, which makes even less people want to keep using dedicated devices...

Basically the way you would reverse this is getting consumer excitement going for dedicated devices again to start broadly increasing publisher investment, but that's way easier to say than actually do.

I would say Nintendo is making a serious effort to do that with the Switch but the reveal was very western centric.

I think we'll have a good view of when exactly the final nail is going in the coffin on January 12th.

If significant Japanese support fails to materialise for the Switch I think we can probably call it.

 

[L~A]

HW is also going to be lower than the record-low 2015 YTD as expected after Nintendo postponed the Switch launch.
Everything but PS4 is going to be down compared the previous year and PS4 isn't performing really well.

There is a serious risk the 2016 HW YTD can be lower than 5 million units which is pitiful.

Definitely the worst gen transition ever, and one that's not even guaranteed to end well.

how many tens of units must that be selling if it's ranked below dead rising 4

Sounds about right. Given the sell through ratio, retailers didn't order a lot of copies, at least.

***

Otome Hero delayed to Spring 2017. Level-5's winning streak in the mobile space just never ends.

http://gematsu.com/2016/12/otome-hero-delayed-spring-2017-japan

 

[MilkBeard]

I hope Nintendo has something for the Japanese audience on Switch at launch. Zelda isn't going to cut it there.

 

[duckroll]

Wonder what will happen to the 10 million PS3 userbase.

First you need to ask, how many of that 10 million were active users who bought more than one game every 6 months? Or a year.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I hope Nintendo has something for the Japanese audience on Switch at launch. Zelda isn't going to cut it there.

Splatoon pack-in for the more expensive SKU is more or less confirmed at this point. As is a new 3D Mario and likely a MHXX version.

Zelda isnt even a launch game anyway.

 

[Kresnik258]

Oh, I imagine it might have, but it's something else seing the little one million there in the tracker. That said, might no be SO soon-ish, but it may as well get a boost during early January? Assuming it'll be one of the games that kids may want to spend some of that otoshidama money on (it's just hit me I have absolutely no clue how old Minecraft's audience is in Japan, if it even fits any particular group).

Anyway, it's been a fun ride to follow...

I had hoped it would reach it this year, looks like it's just gonna fall short

 

[Perfo]

Why an entire country almost completely switch from one method of gaming to the next it's something I don't get. I mean mobile gaming and such is HUGE also here in the west, yet Ps4 and dedicated gaming devices still sell great. Why Japan is one or another?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

First you need to ask, how many of that 10 million were active users who bought more than one game every 6 months? Or a year.

MAU vindicated

 

[Principate]

Why an entire country almost completely switch from one method of gaming to the next it's something I don't get. I mean mobile gaming and such is HUGE also here in the west, yet Ps4 and dedicated gaming devices still sell great. Why Japan is one or another?

Consoles haven't sold well in Japan for pretty much two generations they moved over to handhelds and like handhelds in the west that lunch is being eaten

 

[michaelius]

Why an entire country almost completely switch from one method of gaming to the next it's something I don't get. I mean mobile gaming and such is HUGE also here in the west, yet Ps4 and dedicated gaming devices still sell great. Why Japan is one or another?

Have you been to Japan ? They very often spend a lot of time communiting to work and as a culture they work much longer each day than we do.

So the commute time in train is going to be most of time they can spend on gaming for a lot of people there.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Consoles in the west treated more as a united plattform and the multiplattform development was always a high priority of the big players like EA, Activision and Ubisoft. So from PS2/Cube/Xbox to 360/PS3/PC and now One/PS4/PC.

Meanwhile the japanese market has been quite segregated with ressources split between console and handheld development, exclusive on Sony and and Nintendos side, screw ups from Sony and Nintendo when it comes to the home market.

All the plattforms needed to play through the Kingdom Hearts before the PS4 Remaster are probably a good example of that.

Buying a Xbox, Playstation or gaming on PC in the west means you will have more than solid support without having to worry too much about the support - for the japanese market i would hope that 3rdPartys get their shit together and push for PS4/Switch, to at least keep the remaining part of console gamers satisfied.

Regardless of the PS4 - if Switch ends up getting japanese 3rdParty support and Nintendo can deliver with their first party there might be hope for a small revival. If Switch flops too though...well....

 

[Sammy Samusu]

01./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 690.471 / NEW <64,63%> [Units shipped => 1.068.344]

So, there're almost 400k still on shelves.

The worst thing is that first 3 days sell-through was reported to be ~60% (640k sales). That means that on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, FFXV only managed to sell extra 50k units. That's terrible, and second week drop might be huge.

 

[Aostia]

I would say Nintendo is making a serious effort to do that with the Switch but the reveal was very western centric.

I think we'll have a good view of when exactly the final nail is going in the coffin on January 12th.

If significant Japanese support fails to materialise for the Switch I think we can probably call it.

Despite Nintendo portsbles being crucial in japan in the last two gen, I cant see a Nintendo console as a third party savior
Third party will probsbly prefer to invest on mobile or West (ps4) ove switch imho

 

[cw_sasuke]

Despite Nintendo portsbles being crucial in japan in the last two gen, I cant see a Nintendo console as a third party savior
Third party will probsbly prefer to invest on mobile or West (ps4) ove switch imho

Every 3rdParty is already heavenly invested in PS4 and current-gen looking games and engine - Switch could be an extra source of income, no one is expect Switch to replace the PS4(or mobile), thats a ridiculous thought.

Dont know if saving is the right word - but if whatever console games can sell an addition 100k-200k with a Switch release if it takes off this would already a win for traditional games.

 

[Kanann]

My personal best case for 3rd parties is they're all going to Steam.

 

[cw_sasuke]

My personal best case for 3rd parties is they're all going to Steam.

Thats already happening - yeah.

 

[Herb Alpert]

Despite Nintendo portsbles being crucial in japan in the last two gen, I cant see a Nintendo console as a third party savior
Third party will probsbly prefer to invest on mobile or West (ps4) ove switch imho

Or multiplat between PS4 and switch

 

[Celine]

Despite Nintendo portsbles being crucial in japan in the last two gen, I cant see a Nintendo console as a third party savior
Third party will probsbly prefer to invest on mobile or West (ps4) ove switch imho

Japanese third-party need to invest in widely adopted multiplatform middleware.

 

[zeromcd73]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmFqhiaU7Xg

New trailer for Level 5's Otome Yusha. Now releasing Spring 2017 instead of Winter. Another Level 5 mobile phone game delay!

 

[Pachael]

My personal best case for 3rd parties is they're all going to Steam.

Forward compatibility (assumed) will take care of the rest, but the usual holdouts are ensuring there's a reason to get a dedicated device.