slaughterking
Member
You're still one day too early, king zell.
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Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2011 (Dec 05 - Dec 11)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Take a look at a calendar near you
Somehow you have your calendar one day later
If you used amazon or comgnet to predict your prediction (lol) you don't win anything ;D
Ice burn.
Too much nonsense between this thread and the Vita - 321/2 days one. Yo gotta love Amazon, comgnet, 700K shipments, rumours of rumours, fanboys wishing other games/consoles to fail, Final ¿Fiasco? XIII-2, bombas everywhere, lines.jpg, crazy predictions and people acting like sales masters when they don't know shit. But that's Christmas season for you!
I'm all for +10 pages MC threads but this one has nothing valuable since page 7. That's almost 400 posts with rumours, comgnet lists, shipments and speculation. Hoping the next one will bring better discussions even if it only lasts 5 pages.
But speculation is what makes those threads fun...
slaughterking
Member
That's the one I'm really interested in this week besides Inazuma. Even though I don't expect the numbers for the latter to be particularly spectacular in one way or another.
I actually think the Vita has the potential to surpass the PSP in terms of worldwide sales. The hardware runs circles around anything else that we've ever had before in terms of a handheld platform so even with the high (relatively speaking, of course) price if the right software shows up then I could see it really taking off.
And note that when I say the right software I'm not talking about a monster (har har) hit that sells multi millions (Uncharted certainly has the potential to pass a million when it's all said and done if the Vita's reception continues to be good) of copies worldwide. I'm just talking about consistent releases that are of good quality. The launch software is a good example of this. There aren't any huge hits in that lineup but there's a consistent quality with few if any outright duds.
Regarding the second wave of software for the Vita; it seems like Tales of Innocence, Gravity Daze, Wipeout 2048, Super Stardust, Sound Shapes, Modnation Racers, Super Monkey Ball and Sumioni are all pretty much a lock for early 2012 with Unit 13, Persona the Golden, Resistance, Fifa, Ultimate in Mayonaka, Ninja Gaiden Sigma and SFxTekken are all listed as Spring or first half of 2012 releases. I think in terms of quality and quantity of releases there are enough games to carry the platform safely through the first half of 2012, especially outside of Japan where the system doesn't even launch until February.
Of course I could be totally wrong about all of it but it's fun to predict and will be interesting to see develop!
And note that when I say the right software I'm not talking about a monster (har har) hit that sells multi millions (Uncharted certainly has the potential to pass a million when it's all said and done if the Vita's reception continues to be good) of copies worldwide. I'm just talking about consistent releases that are of good quality. The launch software is a good example of this. There aren't any huge hits in that lineup but there's a consistent quality with few if any outright duds.
Regarding the second wave of software for the Vita; it seems like Tales of Innocence, Gravity Daze, Wipeout 2048, Super Stardust, Sound Shapes, Modnation Racers, Super Monkey Ball and Sumioni are all pretty much a lock for early 2012 with Unit 13, Persona the Golden, Resistance, Fifa, Ultimate in Mayonaka, Ninja Gaiden Sigma and SFxTekken are all listed as Spring or first half of 2012 releases. I think in terms of quality and quantity of releases there are enough games to carry the platform safely through the first half of 2012, especially outside of Japan where the system doesn't even launch until February.
Of course I could be totally wrong about all of it but it's fun to predict and will be interesting to see develop!
I should really start to use SQL. Thanks for the page, it will come handy. 1000k in hardware ? Damn. But if PS3, Wii and PSP pull a 80k+ we may reach that amount
Good...Tomorrow we'll get them as usual
cause I read above somewhere that famitsu splits two week sales or something??
If you think that having +200 posts speculating about a rumoured 700k shipment for Vita or another +200 posts speculating about Final Fiasco XIII-2 without shipments or any numbers is fun... then I have to disagree, sorry.
it is fun, you don't have to read if you don't enjoy reading discussions.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
DS in its prime and Wii having a one of its big launch weeks.
I was going to put the bar chart image here, but I'll just link it because thanks to DS it's over 1000 pixels tall.
They used to inconveniently combine two weeks' worth of data at some of the biggest times of year, but not anymore.idwl said:Good
cause I read above somewhere that famitsu splits two week sales or something??
thestopsign
Member
I posted this in the other thread, but thought I should post it in here also:
The number is rather ambiguous, but I don't think it is great for the PSV's immediate future. The PSV main hope was to have a high draw out of the start due to techies/enthusiasts who buy closer to launch. There isn't a lot of pull past this initial group until the price comes down and more diverse/high profile games are released. Right now I don't see either of those things in the within the next year or so. I admire the PSV tech and foresight in a lot of things, Sony just needed to be a little more aggressive in defending their most important asset in Monster Hunter.
The number is rather ambiguous, but I don't think it is great for the PSV's immediate future. The PSV main hope was to have a high draw out of the start due to techies/enthusiasts who buy closer to launch. There isn't a lot of pull past this initial group until the price comes down and more diverse/high profile games are released. Right now I don't see either of those things in the within the next year or so. I admire the PSV tech and foresight in a lot of things, Sony just needed to be a little more aggressive in defending their most important asset in Monster Hunter.
Different opinions.
For me it's fun when it's done like DCharlie 800K MonHun style. Crazy prediction with some valid points that can lead to a good discussion. I don't think a post like "3DS = 370k/2 days, Vita = 321k/2 days... bomba.jpg" leads to any good discussion and neither do any of the 2 examples I mentioned earlier.
I enjoy reading good discussions but there's none in the last 4 pages IMO
Meh, I dont do number predictions for a reason!, but yeah nothing wrong with what I said tbh.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
If - and that's a pretty weak if - the PSVita does not get quality, sustained support from Western devs, is everyone still rosy on it's long term potential?
Considering Western dev's have spent the better part of the past 1.5 years realigning their business models to support huge AAA entertainment brands on consoles and smaller 'service-based' mobile and social games (away from the traditional medium budget portable gaming), the PSVita is outside the pipeline for a lot of potential software. Eastern development houses aren't exactly there yet so you can expect robust - desperate? - and relatively strong support in the short and mid term for it, no argument there, but if it fails to get worldwide software support, a) can the Eastern market support it enough to carry on on it's own successfully (some people in this thread even said "surpass PSP") and b) what are the long term prospects globally?
Keep in mind that the PSP hasn't really had games launch above 20k calendar year 2011 in the US. The market and is simply not there right now for that type of content, and it'll be hard to pull US-focused publishers back to the model.
Considering Western dev's have spent the better part of the past 1.5 years realigning their business models to support huge AAA entertainment brands on consoles and smaller 'service-based' mobile and social games (away from the traditional medium budget portable gaming), the PSVita is outside the pipeline for a lot of potential software. Eastern development houses aren't exactly there yet so you can expect robust - desperate? - and relatively strong support in the short and mid term for it, no argument there, but if it fails to get worldwide software support, a) can the Eastern market support it enough to carry on on it's own successfully (some people in this thread even said "surpass PSP") and b) what are the long term prospects globally?
Keep in mind that the PSP hasn't really had games launch above 20k calendar year 2011 in the US. The market and is simply not there right now for that type of content, and it'll be hard to pull US-focused publishers back to the model.
I love how you come into these threads, tell people how wrong they are going to be, and then don't owe up to it when things don't turn out quite like you say.
Cosmonaut X
Member
Well, I think almost everyone here suggested that HSG and Unchy would have been the best sellers for Vita's launch.
Now I'm curious about the others.
...Here what we could do! We could post our personal Vita's launch games top 5, how we expect them to perform.
Let's see
Hot Shots Golf 6 - more proerders, a brand with good sales in the recent past (especially due to very good legs)...the main seller - 50 / 60k
Uncharted: Golden Abyss - the brand has grown a lot in these recent times (Uncharted 3 doing more than 150k is still something strange to think about
), it's a quality game - 35 / 40kLord of Apocalypse - Completely jump in the darkness, but the Comgnet ranking could suggest is could have done 25-30k in the end
Dynasty Warriors Next - Low preorders, slow sales on Amazon... not what would you expect from a Shin Sangoku Musou game on a Sony hardware, even if it's at launch. It'll be really strange to see it doing less than a Sengoku Musou game released at launch of a Nintendo console. - 20 / 25k
Disgaea 3 Return - this is just a wild guess
- 15 / 20kAre you talking about sales in Japan or the west? Because I don't think the lack of western devs will hurt the PSV in Japan.
Duckroll will love this: Second year of LBX anime confirmed.
Though that was kind of guaranteed given the dub's initial episode order is 78 episodes.
Though that was kind of guaranteed given the dub's initial episode order is 78 episodes.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Fantastical
Death Prophet
Those people were way wronger than I was. What a bunch of idiots.
To succeed Vita needs to reach its potential, elevating the medium to new heights/directions with its oustanding control options. If developpers ambitions remain close to what already exists on the market, it will have a moderate success. 3DS is a merge of a DS + a psp, and the market doesn't really need another psp with better graphics.
We have only seen gimmicks so far but innovations can come out of this hardware more than from any other (Wii U excepted). It just needs a significant price drop so that most peole can afford it, and so that it becomes a viable platform to take risks. Year 3 and beyond on Vita should be amazing.
Hey, I've been logical lately...
airmangataosenai
Member
Vita's business model doesn't really rely on exclusive games being made for it, at least not until the current gen is phased out. There's little to no reason to keep a major release exclusive when they have the chance to get extra revenue from a port, either from or to the Vita. If anything that makes the Vita a much more attractive option for devs, creating a Vita version is easy and there's little to no risk of loss the way there is with 3DS. With the Wii on it's last leg if a 3DS game that's it, there aren't many options to recoup loses besides the iOS.
But things did turn out quite like I said :X
AdventureRacing
Member
In what way? You were insulting other peoples predictions without making one of your own and as it turns out the predictions didn't turn out to be all that bad.
http://www.nikkei.com/tech/personal...E3E2E2E2E2E2E2;p=9694E3EAE3E0E0E2E2EBE0E4E2E7
This article is saying launch shipment was ~500k.
This article is saying launch shipment was ~500k.
Definitely. HSG and Uncharted.
Didn't seem like there was any shortage of stock still on shelves, so that shipment sounds about right.
HSG is a sure bet but Uncharted depends on the rise of some Wii titles.
frankie_baby
Member
I've just thought we should be looking at the top 5 all over 100k tomorrow
Even if it is Nikkei when I hear for 500k initial shipment I remain cautious.
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
500k shipment is good and guarantees supply throughout the rest of this week and next. Lots sold out too so I'm sure they will be making another shipment here soon.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Good news. Haven't heard of any sellouts and I guess Amazon Japan had a ton but I guess we'll see.
I still think people put WAY too much stock in initial sales. A year down the road is what really matters.
Why are you cautious even now? Nikkei is absolutely reliable in these things. Why don't you believe in the 500k shipment, Chris?
Yup.
1.) MH3G
2.) MK7
3.) Inazuma Shine/Dark
4.)Inazuma Shine/Dark
5.)SM3DL (Should be right at 100k or close)
Edit forgot about FF 13-2 haha my bad.
Revise list with FF on top
frankie_baby
Member
Amazon have now sold out of the wifi
frankie_baby
Member
I see what you did there