We see that in the west as well, of course. The reason that sandbox and FPS games are such a dominant portion of industry output isn't simply because people like them and nobody wants to play any of the "smaller" genres; it's that only those two genres can reliably generate enough revenue to justify the costs for a major PS3/360 game.
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Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2011 (Dec 12 - Dec 18)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
We see that in the west as well, of course. The reason that sandbox and FPS games are such a dominant portion of industry output isn't simply because people like them and nobody wants to play any of the "smaller" genres; it's that only those two genres can reliably generate enough revenue to justify the costs for a major PS3/360 game.
I could see it doing a few million WW, but not being some amazing revival of the series.
Father_Brain
Banned
Budgets were always going to be a huge issue for Vita when it came to securing non-niche original software, and after all the underwhelming events this year, it really does seem right now like Sony just threw a bunch of (very impressive) tech at the proverbial wall without having an actual software strategy to back up the hardware.
I mean, unless you feel you can significant international success, or are putting out a game that's essentially a PS2 game running in HD, I don't see why a Japanese publisher would want to make a console game.
Ni no Kuni just sold ~100-120K copies. Final Fantasy on consoles has imploded to the point where XIII-2 is going to sell in the range of Crisis Core and Dissidia.
I can pretty easily guess which of those cost a hell of a lot less to make.
What on earth is the possible incentive to not just make your game for 3DS?
Consumer interest in Japan seems to have decided that PSP specification games are good enough, and that only a marginal amount of people really want more than that.
If there is no benefit to going beyond that, publishers aren't going to greenlight titles that do, because it is just a money losing situation.
I wouldn't be surprised if when the Nintendo DS 3 releases in 6-8 years we still see games largely looking like PSP titles.
By the same token, since making a high end Vita title is much more like making a console game than a PSP game, that puts it in a pretty terrible situation.
What else could Sony really do though?
They couldn't stop Nintendo from releasing a system at least as powerful as the PSP, at which point their advantages essentially became irrelevant.
For all intents and purposes, Sony is a Western publisher with a small and deeply troubled Japanese branch. They lack the capability and expertise to make exclusives compelling enough to sell their systems.
So, they took their best shot and made a system that would try and compete on tech, hoping that being able to play console games on the go would be compelling enough to sell their system in Japan and that maybe they would have even a snowball's chance in hell of catching on in the West.
I don't think it will work, but especially in terms of Japan, I'm not sure I see much else in terms of what they could have done.
Maybe they can tank their licensing fees to 1/4th of what Nintendo charges and try to sell the system entirely on games with only 100-300K sales potential. Those kinds of games don't need a huge installed base, and quite a few niche developers might find those improved margins compelling.
perfectchaos007
Member
Any leaks on any sales numbers from last week yet? Wednesday morning is just so far away
AceBandage
Banned
Sony's strategy for Vita software always seemed to encourage companies to reuse assets created for HD games, and make something new on Vita. That's what they've done in Uncharted, and Hot Shots, and that's what Scamco and Tecmo Koei did in Ridge Racer, and Dynasty Warriors NEXT. The problem with this is that Japanese developers haven't really made any HD games to reuse assets from... Fabula Nova Tales of Xillia anyone? That philosophy is why I'd often suggest Level-5 to make a Ni No Kuni spinoff on Vita harvesting as much junk from the PS3 game as they possibly can just to make a return on investment prior to the inevitable Wii U port.
perfectchaos007
Member
woah
Right, they're trying to lower the barrier of making higher end games on the system, but as you said, there aren't many in existence for Japanese companies to choose from.
I guess they could also try throwing around $10-$20+ million checks to get a few notable titles, but I'm not sure if they're willing to lose lots of money in the division given the general health of the company as a whole.
Unless there are some major announcements they're keeping under their hat, their current strategy is likely going to get them just about no where.
I think the problem is Sony can't even afford such incentives to Japanese 3rd party developers.
Sony has $7.41 billion of cash on hand, so that's not a huge problem, but it's much more of an issue in terms of ensuring they stop losing money as a company.
They have their 2013 software lineup being finalized about now. If they don't have any major Japanese third party titles I'd be scared [more so than I am now] for the health of that platform. Prior to the XIII-2 bomba, I was kind of expecting another Fabula Nova entry on Vita to just recycle stuff from the XIII games, but obviously that's not going to happen now. Type-1 could happen, but that won't be any time soon. Heck, if Capcom had stuck to their Monster Hunter development strategy (of going console game > handheld game > mobile/pc game, console game > handheld game > mobile/pc game) it would've been a perfect fit for Vita given Capcom actually makes a PS3 entry (which given the P3rd HD port, I thought was going to happen), which is something I speculated about prior to the September conference. Sony really just needs something big, hell "Untitled Level-5 RPG" is a start, even if it's nothing, it's something for people to look forward to.
Jinfash
needs 2 extra inches
Yeah, I think if their Jan event is anything to go by, their intent was to sell the Vita as the easiest recycling kit on the market. However, as stated above, this would benefit the (distracted) Western handheld market more, as the Japanese HD catalog is very sparse.
I can only think of Yakuza, MGS, Lost Planet, Dragon Dogma, Tales and FF as the biggest HD games.
If that lineup sounds largely familiar, it's because Sony showcased most of those, again, in the Jan event.
I can only think of Yakuza, MGS, Lost Planet, Dragon Dogma, Tales and FF as the biggest HD games.
If that lineup sounds largely familiar, it's because Sony showcased most of those, again, in the Jan event.
coughcoughresidentevilcoughcoughscrewyoucapcomcoughcough
It is good that Sony doesn't seem to be against having games that are incredibly weak looking on Vita...
Yeah, while they have issues in the West, at least they managed to get an Uncharted game for launch and pull out titles (even if the games end up being horrible) like BioShock, Assassin's Creed, and Call of Duty.
That they can't do that in Japan implies an even greater level of apathy than consoles have in the region, and those are platforms where we currently have like six announced JRPGs combined even if we include vaporware, barely announced titles, and MMOs.
Just because Sony has $7.41 billion doesn't mean that they can use it to secure third party support for their gaming unit. Sony as a conglomerate has too many inefficient divisions. If I am not mistaken I think Sony has been posting losses for four straight years.
That was what I was saying.
They have resources, but they would likely be burned at the stake by shareholders for putting the game division into losses without at least having a new console coming out, since at least that device would be perceived much more favorably as a potential investment and growth opportunity.
frankie_baby
Member
They also have an expensive ps4 launch coming up within the next 2 years can they really afford to just throw money at the vita
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
it's more in Sony's/Nintendo's interest to find or fund "the next big thing"
There's an X factor with every generation and it's more than likely something that will revolve around the unique functions
I note that people keep saying, for instance, "DS trending like 3DS" with the assumed nudge nudge being "it's going to sell like the DS!!!!" - the DS had a couple of massive game changing games that opened up the machine to new markets. There's still no game like that on the PSV or the 3DS , or any on the horizon so far.
There's an X factor with every generation and it's more than likely something that will revolve around the unique functions
I note that people keep saying, for instance, "DS trending like 3DS" with the assumed nudge nudge being "it's going to sell like the DS!!!!" - the DS had a couple of massive game changing games that opened up the machine to new markets. There's still no game like that on the PSV or the 3DS , or any on the horizon so far.
The one problem I feel Sony has here though is that they lack development resources in Japan.
Nintendo has at least mentioned that they're trying to work on games like that. They might fail, but they are at least making a go at it.
Unless Sony can find some independent developer or quickly build a very strong internal team to create their next big selling point, I don't see where it would come from (and not risk the subsequent entry going multiplatform to the 3DS).
I mean, I guess conceptually they could build something in the West that really takes off in Japan, but the odds seem really stacked against them there.
Yes exactly. I think it is a bit like Microsoft's case where even though they have the resources to buy all the software support that they need to succeed their shareholders (Microsoft's) will rather they didn't.
The resources are there it's just that there is no justification to using the resources in buying support that has no synergistic purposes to Sony as a conglomerate.
So out of curiosity let's list franchises that have HD appearances:
Ace Combat
Atelier Moomoo
Disgaea
Dragon Ball
Dynasty Warriors
Final Fantasy
Gundam
Hyper Dimension Neptunia
King of Fighters
Lost Planet
Metal Gear Solid
Naruto
Ni No Kuni
Resident Evil
Samurai Warriors
Sengoku Basara
Star Ocean
Street Fighter
Tales
Tekken
White Knight Chronicles
Yakuza
please say there was more i missed
Ace Combat
Atelier Moomoo
Disgaea
Dragon Ball
Dynasty Warriors
Final Fantasy
Gundam
Hyper Dimension Neptunia
King of Fighters
Lost Planet
Metal Gear Solid
Naruto
Ni No Kuni
Resident Evil
Samurai Warriors
Sengoku Basara
Star Ocean
Street Fighter
Tales
Tekken
White Knight Chronicles
Yakuza
please say there was more i missed
Assuming you mean "and at least sold 100,000 copies in Japan":
Bayonetta
Pro Yakyu Spirits
Gran Turismo
Pro Evo Soccer
Soul Calibur
Valkyria Chronicles
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball
Catherine
Resonance of Fate
Dark Souls
Ridge Racer
Way of the Samurai
Dead Rising
Ar Tonelico
Hot Shots
Devil May Cry
The Last Remnant
Blue Dragon
Infinite Undiscovery
Katamari
Dead or Alive
Lost Odyssey
We're setting a pretty bottom of the barrel sales bar here too, so this list is quite short.
This sounds like me from 18 months ago (or however long it was)! It seemed clear (to me, at least, and iirc charlequin agreed with me as well) back then that there really wasn't an enviable strategy for Sony to take with a new handheld.
They could go with 3DS-level power and make it a 360/PS3 type situation where everything under the sun gets released on both platforms, but then Nintendo's 1st-party portfolio absolutely crushes Sony's portfolio to dust - so if the main differentiation between the systems is 1st-party exclusives then Sony loses big.
Or they could go with a very powerful handheld which distinguishes it from the 3DS. But the point I was making back then was - who is going to pump 360/PS3 level budgets into a handheld title? Pretty much nobody. So then you're stuck with PS3/360 ports for the most part. But PS2 ports didn't do much of anything for the PSP, and I don't see PS3 ports doing much of anything for Vita.
I meant franchises, so series with more than 1 game (so no Bayonetta, and the Square Enix 360 tests), and those MGS IPs are dead now.
Ace Combat
Atelier Moomoo
Ar Tonelico
Class of Heroes
Dead or Alive
Dead Rising
Devil May Cry
Disgaea
Dragon Ball
Dynasty Warriors
Final Fantasy
Acquire Gladiator Series
Gran Turismo
Gundam
Hot Shots Golf
Hyper Dimension Neptunia
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball
Katamari
King of Fighters
Lost Planet
Metal Gear Solid
My Summer Vacation
Naruto
Ni No Kuni
Pro Evolution Soccer
Pro Yakyu Spirits
Resident Evil
Ridge Racer
Samurai Warriors
Sengoku Basara
Soul Calibur
From's Souls series
Street Fighter
Super Robot Wars
Tales
Tekken
Tenchu
Valkyria Chronicles
Virtua Fighter
Virtua Tennis
Way of the Samurai
White Knight Chronicles
Wizardry
Yakuza
Believe (tm)
Ace Combat
Atelier Moomoo
Ar Tonelico
Class of Heroes
Dead or Alive
Dead Rising
Devil May Cry
Disgaea
Dragon Ball
Dynasty Warriors
Final Fantasy
Acquire Gladiator Series
Gran Turismo
Gundam
Hot Shots Golf
Hyper Dimension Neptunia
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball
Katamari
King of Fighters
Lost Planet
Metal Gear Solid
My Summer Vacation
Naruto
Ni No Kuni
Pro Evolution Soccer
Pro Yakyu Spirits
Resident Evil
Ridge Racer
Samurai Warriors
Sengoku Basara
Soul Calibur
From's Souls series
Street Fighter
Super Robot Wars
Tales
Tekken
Tenchu
Valkyria Chronicles
Virtua Fighter
Virtua Tennis
Way of the Samurai
White Knight Chronicles
Wizardry
Yakuza
Believe (tm)
With ~8 Billion in short and long term debts. That significantly restricts their liquidity.
Wow...I knew Sony was in trouble but I honestly didn't expect this.
I'm seeing $12.9 billion in debt here unless I'm reading something incorrectly.
My statement is mainly from the perspective of them being a trainwreck as it stands who for some reason seems willing to lose a lot per year.
At least they're starting to sell off more things however.
You aren't, but that includes about ~4.1 billion in unsecured debt. Unsecured debt is certainly not a good thing, but doesn't confer the same type of financial pressure.
I'm not sure "willing" is the right term.
Right, and that's as good a place to start as any. They may end up being a financial company if things continue to go south for another five years.
It is very, very good. They need to be a major part of their push, as consumers need to understand that games don't need to have PS3-esque production values to be "good" or "worthwhile" games.
This is the smartest thing they're doing right now. It's not a technical consideration, it's a marketing one.
frankie_baby
Member
In my opinion vita won't be a success though it won't be a complete disaster, ps4 however will then need to be a success out of the gate another ps3 style launch could easily sink their gaming division
Okay so reading this: http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/11q2_sonypre.pdf
It seems Sony expects:
Last Year (actual result at current exchange rate): $3.33 billion loss
This Year (current forecasted result): $1.15 billion loss
Though, that will probably change now that they're selling off things.
There's a positive $940 up front, but I'm not sure how that will filter down.
It seems Sony expects:
Last Year (actual result at current exchange rate): $3.33 billion loss
This Year (current forecasted result): $1.15 billion loss
Though, that will probably change now that they're selling off things.
There's a positive $940 up front, but I'm not sure how that will filter down.
Improvement!
Isn't that what PlayStation Suite is for, though?
It won't change things. In most cases, selling off fixed assets like facilities creates liquidity, not earnings.
Let's say Sony sold that plant for 1 Billion dollars. Now, they will have 1 billion more dollars, but will also have to list 1 billion less in fixed assets. The net change is zero. Selling fixed assets is usually done because you require financial flexibility. It's a lot easier to trade 1 billion dollars for something than it is to trade LCD manufacturing plants.
Jinfash
needs 2 extra inches
Vaporware~
But they already sold PS Certified devices!
lol no one buys their tablets or xperia phones
Father_Brain
Banned
Has there been any substantive news about PS Suite at all since it was announced back in January? I can't recall anything.
It launches next spring, beta was supposed to start last month, but if it did developers probably can't talk about it.
Jinfash
needs 2 extra inches
I remember a gofreak thread about the program launch being delayed from November to Spring, but that's about it.
(I wanna say the kits have been distributed, but I'm not 100%)
I did
saw someone who did
While FFVII remake will do well, say better than FFXIII-2, I don't think it would be bigger than DQ7 remake in Japan. It's been so long since FFVII was released and its popularity is overblown.
EDIT: 3DS Q1 release schedule looks even better now after Nintendo Direct with Iwata and FE 3DS would start Q2. On the other hand, Kiki Trick looks to be the last first party game on Wii in Japan. Also, will Nintendo repeat the mistake they made with Wii when they consitently release games for the first 2 years then has to go through long drought between first party game releases afterwards?
charlequin
Banned
I need them to do V first.
I just don't think it will make a meaningful impact unless it gets the full HD remake treatment -- and in that case, it's probably better as an early effort for next generation rather than trying to squeeze it out in the insufficient time before new consoles launch.
Well, this is exactly what I proposed last week, lol.
There was an intermediate stage where Kawazu was directing and giving all kinds of interviews talking about how it would be a 2D remake with a bunch of dumb new Kawaz-y features. Then it disappeared for like two years, people in the industry heard that it was cancelled, and then it suddenly popped up looking totally different from our previous expectations.
I think it's likely that Matrix was on the hook the entire time as the coding house for the project, but that the specific game we got was entirely different from what they were at one point planning on developing.
You can take the exact same game, make it for Vita, make use of exclusive features (like the significantly better online/DLC infrastructure), and just rely on the higher resolution to make PS2 assets look good (see: Persona 4: The Golden.)
Wait, Nintendo has more cash than Sony? wat
Considering how huge Sony is and how unprofitable the PlayStation brand is, I think that it is a bit of a problem.
nintendo makes playing cards that sell and sony makes tvs that don't.
charlequin
Banned
This is exactly the problem I said Sony were going to run into before they even announced the system.
I kind of like this strategy. There's no real inherent advantage/disadvantage either way for niche games between 3DS and Vita (since devs will just make low-spec games on Vita anyway, the way they did on PSP) so taking a noticeable cut on licensing fees (or, even better, maybe a graduated one that gives big discounts to low-printrun games) could be a significant factor in swinging niche gaming as a whole onto the platform -- and enough different niche games on one platform start to add up.
Well that was your mistake. It was really really obvious that MH3P HD was a tool to support the PSP release and not a sign of an impending "real" console release.
Right, I don't think it'd trend significantly higher than other FF remakes (so in the <1m range), while DQ7 would probably come in the 1.5m neighborhood.