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Media Create Sales: Week 53, 2015 (Dec 28 - Jan 03)

If Z doesn't come this year I wouldn't expect it at all and it kinda makes sense given how the anime started the Z arc months ago. I'm guessing GF decided to forego a 3rd version in order to start preparing for Gen 7 on Nintendo's next platform.

I said in an earlier thread that no Z would point to the NX handheld making a clean break from the 3DS, in terms of backwards compatibility.

Game Freak could stay with Nintendo handhelds to the end, because each handheld's games have been playable on the next handheld (The GBA could play Crystal, the DS could play Emerald, the 3DS could play Black 2 and White 2). That's a tradition that's gone all the way back to the American releases of G1 (monochrome GB games that were all but GBC launch titles).

If the NX handheld can't so much as take 3DS carts, then that's a huge game-changer.
 
They already have the Gen I-VI models made for the game, so they really only need to develop the new generation and the world design. They did a lot of the "qHD" or "HD" work for Gen VI.

Yeah, although the overworld graphics could do with an overhaul. I'm more referring to the leftover bits of Gen VI content to deal with, like Zygarde's formes, AZ's Floette and the like. It may just be that they don't intend to give this stuff its own game, but it would be a distinct change of plans if that's the case.

True. But without Z, I expect a very early NX Pokemon game rather than B2W2 scenario of a "3DS has launched, here's a DS game".

I'm agreed on that score. If Z has indeed been scrapped, it's to make room for a new generation significantly earlier than we otherwise might have expected it, IMO- maybe even just a handful of months after the NX launch. Hell, maybe Game Freak were informed of Nintendo's plans to introduce the new console generation earlier than they had initially anticipated, and changed their plans to accommodate it?


Interestingly, there's also a fair bit of mystery surrounding this year's Pokémon movie, and what Pokémon it's going to include. We know that it's going to focus on Volcanion, as that's been revealed uncharacteristically early- alongside the movie's first reveal, in fact. Generally speaking, the promotional campaign for each movie over the past 7 or 8 years has two big Pokémon reveals leading up to its release- this could be the announcement of a hitherto unconfirmed but still known Mythical Pokémon, or the reveal of a new forme for it, or just flat-out a new Pokémon. The first of these reveals tends to happen in February, and the second in April or May, in order to space out the reveals and to drum up interest. The primary legendary, however, may be revealed in advance of this if they have more reveals to get through- back in 2012, for example, Genesect was revealed months before the film was announced, giving them space to announce Sylveon in February 2013, and Mega Mewtwo Y in May 2013. Volcanion's early announcement heavily suggests that there's another few Pokémon reveals to come, but what? Even if we assume that one of them is another Volcanion forme, that still leaves another one to go. It could conceivably be a Mega of a previously-existing Pokémon, but I'd suggest that it's not overly likely. Movie reveals are often tied in to distributions of Pokémon, be it to unlock them for the first time, or to unlock extra content or formes from them. One of these distributions will undoubtedly be Volcanion, but what will the other be? They went out of their way to ensure that all non-Mythical Pokémon were available to be captured in X,Y and ORAS, Zygarde's arc and promotion is being dealt with in the anime, and they are now distributing all of the Mythical Pokémon over the course of the year- if they were indeed giving a major legendary a new Mega with a starring role in the movie, you'd have thought that they would have held back a bit. None of this is conclusive, but it does lead me to think that we might be on the cusp of them drawing the curtain back on a new Pokémon generation within the next few months, which in recent times suggests that it's going to be shown off sooner rather than later.

tl;dr There is substantial reason to believe that we may start seeing the new generation of Pokémon this year, and this may indicate that it's starting sooner than we expected.
 

Sandfox

Member
True. But without Z, I expect a very early NX Pokemon game rather than B2W2 scenario of a "3DS has launched, here's a DS game".

I'm expecting the same.

I said in an earlier thread that no Z would point to the NX handheld making a clean break from the 3DS, in terms of backwards compatibility.

Game Freak could stay with Nintendo handhelds to the end, because each handheld's games have been playable on the next handheld (The GBA could play Crystal, the DS could play Emerald, the 3DS could play Black 2 and White 2). That's a tradition that's gone all the way back to the American releases of G1 (monochrome GB games that were all but GBC launch titles).

If the NX handheld can't so much as take 3DS carts, then that's a huge game-changer.
I don't think we can make that conclusion from this.
 

Ōkami

Member
Tv ads for Mario Tennis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYZ-R5TZSZI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqJ5saFYq3A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4Y-70YT0Gc

Regarding Pokken, well when it first popped up on comgnet I did mention that it was most likely just the hardcore Pokémon fans doing it, hence the highish preorders at the time (not just comgnet, but rakuten and amazon as well) it's been doing pretty slow since then, the game is still two months away though, but I also said that it's better to wait a month or so before "Pokken 150k FW, 700K LTD!!!!" and such.

Lack of Attack on Titan, and to a lesser stent, Street Fighter V is interesting though.
 

Vena

Member
Ōkami;192032357 said:
Lack of Attack on Titan, and to a lesser stent, Street Fighter V is interesting though.

Makes me wonder where we're going to see Toukiden 2, because I feel (this may be a wrong conclusion to make, mind) like AoT is going to be the first of KTs attempts at "westernizing" their games in an attempt to find success on the PS4. We're close to release and none of its platforms have charted anywhere (though the PS3 may as well not be considered all things considered).

SFV not charting isn't surprising at all, imo. (Obviously, Smash3DS has satiated all of Japan's need for fighting games. /s)
 

Alrus

Member
Makes me wonder where we're going to see Toukiden 2, because I feel (this may be a wrong conclusion to make, mind) like AoT is going to be the first of KTs attempts at "westernizing" their games in an attempt to find success on the PS4. We're close to release and none of its platforms have charted anywhere (though the PS3 may as well not be considered all things considered).

SFV not charting isn't surprising at all, imo. (Obviously, Smash3DS has satiated all of Japan's need for fighting games. /s)

I completely forgot about Attack on Titans, have they even shown more than just glimpse of gameplay yet?

I'm not too surprised about SF V because fighting games have shown a pretty steady decline in sales lately, I don't expect it to do that well in Japan.
 
I don't think we can make that conclusion from this.

Nevertheless, that trend has been in place for Pokemon games and Nintendo handhelds for the last 15 years. Game Freak/TPC took their sweet time moving to the next hardware in line, and stuck with the last gen until the bitter end.

If they're skipping the traditional late-gen game and getting an early start on the NX as you guys are suggesting, that's completely against what they've done for years. Why else would they do that but no BC?
 

Vena

Member
I completely forgot about Attack on Titans, have they even shown more than just glimpse of gameplay yet?

I'm not too surprised about SF V because fighting games have shown a pretty steady decline in sales lately, I don't expect it to do that well in Japan.

Smash3DS/4 did better than Brawl, did it not? As for AoT, they showed footage in November with the release date announcement.
 
Oh I wasn't talking about worldwide sales but more specifically about Japan. I think SF V is going to do fine overall.
Whoop, yeah, I mistook it for WW talk. My apologies!

I do not think SFV is going to do particularly good in Japan either but I think it can put up okay numbers.
 

Sterok

Member
I seem to remember a certain fighting game doing extremely well in 2014.

I'm sure Z is still coming to the 3DS, but they sure are taking their sweet time announcing it. I thought it was going to be announced last August, then November, and now even February is looking iffy. I'm getting antsy for sure. It's hard to say whether Z promotion without a game to promote was intentional or not. Maybe they have a new marketing plan. Or maybe they delayed it so that they could add more content and not be humiliated by Yokai again. Or maybe they're doing something unprecedented. Whatever they're planning, the silence on the matter is weirding me out.
 

Sandfox

Member
Nevertheless, that trend has been in place for Pokemon games and Nintendo handhelds for the last 15 years. Game Freak/TPC took their sweet time moving to the next hardware in line, and stuck with the last gen until the bitter end.

If they're skipping the traditional late-gen game and getting an early start on the NX as you guys are suggesting, that's completely against what they've done for years. Why else would they do that but no BC?

Well they could just want to move on to the next generation.
 

horuhe

Member
It's intriguing how Game Freak is holding this situation. Last year, needed to ocurr something related to Pokémon Z but was moved to this year for the anniversary's sake. Now, it's even possible not to appear because it's moving to NX.

Wow at you guys! Don't you realize is gonna be a New 3DS exclusive a la Crystal Edition?, lol.

Hope it gets released for 3DS. Yokai will be selling like hotcakes this year and, as some pointed out, Nintendo can't lose this opportunity in this year's battle. It's just too soon.
 

Sandfox

Member
It's intriguing how Game Freak is holding this situation. Last year, needed to ocurr something related to Pokémon Z but was moved to this year for the anniversary's sake. Now, it's even possible not to appear because it's moving to NX.

Wow at you guys! Don't you realize is gonna be a New 3DS exclusive a la Crystal Edition?, lol.

Hope it gets released for 3DS. Yokai will be selling like hotcakes this year and, as some pointed out, Nintendo can't lose this opportunity in this year's battle. It's just too soon.

Where are you getting that from?

Also, you could spin that "battle" thing into Pokemon having a mainline release in 2017 for the NX while YW potentially has a port or remake.
 
They wanted to keep the reveal for the 20th anniversary, that's it. Of course there will be a mainline game for 3DS this year, it's not even a question.
 

Vena

Member
I'm going to posit that the 3DS version may well make it to this year, but there's no way a simultaneous release occurs for this unless they are both in 2017... at which point the 3DS will be getting readily supplanted by Nintendo themselves.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I'm going to posit that the 3DS version may well make it to this year, but there's no way a simultaneous release occurs for this unless they are both in 2017... at which point the 3DS will be getting readily supplanted by Nintendo themselves.

I think they're just going to release it in the fiscal year after this one.

Like let's look at their flagships for HD games under that scenario.

April 2015 - March 2016:
- Tomb Raider, Hitman, Just Cause 3

April 2016 - March 2017:
- Deus Ex, Final Fantasy XV

April 2017 - March 2018:
- Dragon Quest XI, Kingdom Hearts 3

April 2018 - March 2019:
- Eidos should be ready again, maybe FF7R

It's a bit overstacked in April 2016 - March 2017 if you have DQ11 in there, even if we graciously move FF7R forward.
 

Oregano

Member
I think it's more likely that Z's no show is related to Pokemon GO, the superbowl ad is probably for that game too.
In which case it will get more/better marketing than the last few mainline games
 
I completely forgot about Attack on Titans, have they even shown more than just glimpse of gameplay yet?

I'm not too surprised about SF V because fighting games have shown a pretty steady decline in sales lately, I don't expect it to do that well in Japan.

Quite surprised about the lack of interest in the new Attack on Titan game. I thought that popular IP + Musou origin + PS platforms could have given a shot to reach the 500k mark, so of course below One Piece Musou and Dragon Quest Heroes but in line with Ken's Rage. The 3DS game sold 300k units + around 100k units through the enhanced version, and it was a game with low production values.

We can scratch DQXI from this year, already.

At this point, it might well be that the PS4 version dragged the 3DS version in 2017, while the latter being likely more advanced in the development process - this might signal SQEX intention to release the two versions simultaneously after all, which would damage the 3DS version more than benefit the PS4 one, in my opinion.
 

Oregano

Member
With DQXI launching that late the PS4 version should represent a much bigger proportion of the sales.

Also could maybe indicate that the NX version will be based on the 3DS version and it's being ported because they're less confident in the 3DS in 2017.
 
Quite surprised about the lack of interest in the new Attack on Titan game. I thought that popular IP + Musou origin + PS platforms could have given a shot to reach the 500k mark, so of course below One Piece Musou and Dragon Quest Heroes but in line with Ken's Rage. The 3DS game sold 300k units + around 100k units through the enhanced version, and it was a game with low production values.

I'd have expected something more in line with the SAO games (~ 300k LTD) given it's similarly-popular anime title. Looks like it won't even reach that though.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
With DQXI launching that late the PS4 version should represent a much bigger proportion of the sales.

Also could maybe indicate that the NX version will be based on the 3DS version and it's being ported because they're less confident in the 3DS in 2017.

probably
 
I'd have expected something more in line with the SAO games (~ 300k LTD) given it's similarly-popular anime title. Looks like it won't even reach that though.

I thought Attack on Titan was much more popular - one of the manga properties that have a mass-market appeal. If a low-budget Spike Chunsoft 3DS game could reach 300k units, I thought a better-production values Koei-published game by Omega Force developers could have aimed at something more, especially considering it's releasing on 3 platforms, and that Sony audience like Musou-like games. Perhaps the popularity of the IP is fading?
 
I thought Attack on Titan was much more popular - one of the manga properties that have a mass-market appeal. If a low-budget Spike Chunsoft 3DS game could reach 300k units, I thought a better-production values Koei-published game by Omega Force developers could have aimed at something more, especially considering it's releasing on 3 platforms, and that Sony audience like Musou-like games. Perhaps the popularity of the IP is fading?

Spike Chunsoft's game had the advantage of being the first AoT released, which tends to always help sales. But yeah, I suspect Koei-Tecmo will have been aiming at least in the same ballpark.

They'll also be publishing it worldwide, though, and I believe it has some decent popularity overseas?
 
Spike Chunsoft's game had the advantage of being the first AoT released, which tends to always help sales. But yeah, I suspect Koei-Tecmo will have been aiming at least in the same ballpark.

They'll also be publishing it worldwide, though, and I believe it has some decent popularity overseas?

This is new to me, and I don't think it should be quite an issue here: different platforms, different developers, different gameplay.
 
This is new to me, and I don't think it should be quite an issue here: different platforms, different developers, different gameplay.

It's been incredibly difficult to find an example of an anime IP which saw a platform shift between the first and second entry! In general, they see notable drops, e.g.

Accel World (2012, PS3/PSP) = 48,594
Accel World (2013, PS3/PSP) = 19,818

Fairy Tail (2010, PSP) = 106,939
Fairy Tail (2011, PSP) = 58,875

Though of course Sword Art Online increased between PSP -> PSV. The best example I can find is this:

Puella Magi Madoka Magica (2012, PSP, DRPG) = 96,453
Puella Magi Madoka Magica (2013, PSV, action) = 23,860

I mean sure, there's been a platform shift, but it's been from the leading console of it's generation during the peak of its popularity, to two platforms on the decline and one that might be going up but hasn't shown a massive affinity for Japanese software yet.

By the way - I do think it's going to underperform, don't get me wrong on that. You just quite often seem to have incredibly lofty expectations for certain pieces of PS software that I feel are a bit unrealistic.
 

Fisico

Member
I'd have expected something more in line with the SAO games (~ 300k LTD) given it's similarly-popular anime title. Looks like it won't even reach that though.

It has nothing to do popularity wise, both sold a few tens of thousands BD copies for each volume of their respective anime, but Attack on Titan is a widely popular manga selling dozen of millions each year only beaten by One Piece, whereas Sword Art Online is "only" a popular light novel.
 

L~A

Member
Yup, Attack in Titan is extremely popular in Japan, and not just with manga/anime fans. It has mainstream appeal.

If we had to make comparisons, Attack on Titan would be the Monster Hunter of mangas/animes (while Dragon Quest would be the One Piece, I guess? Yeah, stupid comparison :p)
 

Oregano

Member
Didn't the 3DS game have great legs though and not great upfront sales? Might be the same for the KT game.

On the surface I'd expect it to easily surpass the 3DS version(at least when you combine the three versions) and if not overseas sales should be higher.
 

duckroll

Member
Attack on Titan is still very popular but there have been a ton of Musou licensed games of late and core fans might be more wary. I think it'll still sell over 500k across all platforms at least, but not immediately and it might depend on word of mouth.
 

L~A

Member
^

500k sounds about right, maybe more if the game is good. If the 3DS game sold what it sold, I doubt KT's would sell less, especially since it looks like a much more solid effort.

***

Media Create:

New3DS LL 37,227
PS4 36,559
Vita 31,338
Wii U 24,722
New3DS 11,610
3DS 9,698
PS3 2,784
3DS LL 1,944
Xbox One 293
 

casiopao

Member
^

500k sounds about right, maybe more if the game is good. If the 3DS game sold what it sold, I doubt KT's would sell less, especially since it looks like a much more solid effort.

***

Media Create:

New3DS LL 37,227
PS4 36,559
Vita 31,338
Wii U 24,722
New3DS 11,610
3DS 9,698
PS3 2,784
3DS LL 1,944
Xbox One 293

3DS is still doing quite well i see.^^ Next week is going to be very brutal though.
 
It's been incredibly difficult to find an example of an anime IP which saw a platform shift between the first and second entry! In general, they see notable drops, e.g.

Accel World (2012, PS3/PSP) = 48,594
Accel World (2013, PS3/PSP) = 19,818

Fairy Tail (2010, PSP) = 106,939
Fairy Tail (2011, PSP) = 58,875

Though of course Sword Art Online increased between PSP -> PSV. The best example I can find is this:

Puella Magi Madoka Magica (2012, PSP, DRPG) = 96,453
Puella Magi Madoka Magica (2013, PSV, action) = 23,860

I mean sure, there's been a platform shift, but it's been from the leading console of it's generation during the peak of its popularity, to two platforms on the decline and one that might be going up but hasn't shown a massive affinity for Japanese software yet.

By the way - I do think it's going to underperform, don't get me wrong on that. You just quite often seem to have incredibly lofty expectations for certain pieces of PS software that I feel are a bit unrealistic.

Your examples are completely meaningless because Attack on Titan on PS4/3/V is not the "second entry" but just a different take on the franchise from a different publisher and develop, with a different gameplay (I don't know about how the story is structured but I guess this might also be a different aspect with respect to the 3DS game). Your examples are, instead, for sequels on the same platform within IPs that didn't have the long-lasting appeal Attack on Titan has.

If Ken's Rage could sell 500k+ units on PS3, I don't see why Attack on Titan should sell less, given the popularity of the franchise right now, the fact that Musou-like games tend to sell well in the PS ecosystem, and the fact that Attack on Titan proved itself to be a popular IP in the video game sector. 300k would not be that because it would an average of 100k units per platform - if we discount PS3 giving only 50k sales, that would mean on average 125k units across PS4 and PSV.
 
Your examples are completely meaningless because Attack on Titan on PS4/3/V is not the "second entry" but just a different take on the franchise from a different publisher and develop, with a different gameplay (I don't know about how the story is structured but I guess this might also be a different aspect with respect to the 3DS game). Your examples are, instead, for sequels on the same platform within IPs that didn't have the long-lasting appeal Attack on Titan has.

So what was wrong with the Madoka Magica example which was different developer; different gameplay and different platforms? Can you provide something better?

Maybe One Piece, for example, since those games constantly shift platforms; developers and genres (although keep the same publisher). And have sold wildly different amounts across the different games.

But anyway, as always Pennywise, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.
 
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