Support NeoGAF

[Celine]

Sony's most profitable division is the gaming one.

How about no?

 

[Nekki]

FFS, stop with this retarded argument already. "We knew bla bla bla". Fact: first 6 months of 3DS were more barren then a fucking Gobi desert

But their arguments really are valid. As Chris said, in the same period of it's lifetime the 3DS had two 200k sellers and one 500k. Vita is NOWHERE near that!!!

All this talk about KI bombing is kinda worrisome. You can tell just by looking at the latest trailer that a lot of effort is going into it.

IMO it can achieve 300k LTD, but anything can happen, we just have to see how well/bad it does.

As a comparison:

Sin & Punishment 2:Successor to the Sky is at a LTD of 19,951
Star Fox 64 3D us at a LTD of 75,081

These are the last games i can think of that resemble the genre at all. One, a very niche series, which probably turned a lot of people off, being too hard and all.

The other, a popular nintendo franchise, but also one that is trending downwards, and a remake.

So how will KI compare to these? I think it will sell much better than both, but i like being optimistic about it.

 

[duckroll]

Every time I see KI, all I can think of is Killer Instinct. :/

 

[jakncoke]

PSP Go proves that they just might.

I don't think this is a valid point, they still had the PSP on the market and it was selling so killing the lifeless psp go was easy. I don't think they'd be so eager to kill the Vita like they were the Go as they'd have no active handheld on the market. Well psp would still be there I guess.

 

[pieatorium]

Every time I see KI, all I can think of is Killer Instinct. :/

Yeah me too

 

[bigtroyjon]

When was the last time gaming was Sony's most profitable division? 2005? Before that?

2003 is the last year.

Edit- From what I can tell, it was the most profitable division in 2001, 2002, 2003 and those are the only three years since 98, which is as far back as the easily found information on the internet goes.

Aside from Financial Services/Insurance(old name), The Pictures division is where they've made the bulk of their money since 98.

 

[TheNatural]

Every time I see KI, all I can think of is Killer Instinct. :/

Whenever I see SC I think Soul Caliber and not StarCraft or Splinter Cell.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Every time I see KI, all I can think of is Killer Instinct. :/

Ahah. You're not alone my friend!

 

[test_account]

PSP Go proves that they just might.

Personally i wouldnt concider the PSP Go to be (or was) a high-profile product.

Every time I see KI, all I can think of is Killer Instinct. :/

Same here

 

[hatchx]

I guess Tekken is not really a big franchise anymore. People used to be excited for new Tekken's didn't they?

As for KI failing, I don't see it doing under 100k in Japan. Nintendo is pushing it way too goddamn much with the AR cards, multiplayer, lots of video hype, etc. It's also on the top most wanted Famitsu list, not that it means much.

It has a worldwide launch on March. 23rd. I don't think they are aiming for it to be dominant in one territory over another. I think they are taking a very 'wait-and-see' with this one. I can see it failing abysmally, and I can see it selling 2-3 million worldwide.

 

[Chris1964]

It has a worldwide launch on March. 23rd. I don't think they are aiming for it to be dominant in one territory over another. I think they are taking a very 'wait-and-see' with this one. I can see it failing abysmally, and I can see it selling 2-3 million worldwide.

You set the bar very high. The game has high production values and Nintendo wants to push it but I doubt it will do much better than 1 million at best.

It doesn't remind me at all the situation with DKC Returns.

 

[duckroll]

I guess Tekken is not really a big franchise anymore. People used to be excited for new Tekken's didn't they?

But this isn't a "new" Tekken though. It's just a portable entry with a mix of characters. Sure, it should probably do better even as a side release, and that's an indication that the franchise isn't as popular or strong as it used to be ages ago, but the next real Tekken on consoles will almost certainly do better than this.

As for KI failing, I don't see it doing under 100k in Japan. Nintendo is pushing it way too goddamn much with the AR cards, multiplayer, lots of video hype, etc. It's also on the top most wanted Famitsu list, not that it means much.

It has a worldwide launch on March. 23rd. I don't think they are aiming for it to be dominant in one territory over another. I think they are taking a very 'wait-and-see' with this one. I can see it failing abysmally, and I can see it selling 2-3 million worldwide.

I don't think it'll do under 100k in Japan either. But I wouldn't consider anything under 500k in Japan to be a real success, and if it does less than 250k that would be plain bad. Nintendo's aim here is to capture a new audience on the 3DS, and to try finding success among core gamers. For that to really have an impact, I feel they need to have substantial numbers.

We should also keep in mind that Sora is making this instead of a Smash Brothers game, and development on this is actually delaying them from going full speed into the next Smash Brothers project. If the game does not have above average sales, it would mean that they sort of wasted their time, since Smash Brothers is without a doubt a huge franchise that they can be sure will sell.

 

[timetokill]

I don't think it'll do under 100k in Japan either. But I wouldn't consider anything under 500k in Japan to be a real success, and if it does less than 250k that would be plain bad. Nintendo's aim here is to capture a new audience on the 3DS, and to try finding success among core gamers. For that to really have an impact, I feel they need to have substantial numbers.

With that said, I'm expecting 350k for Kid Icarus in Japan.

 

[BorkBork]

I'm not arguing, I am discussing. Something you don't seem interested in because you dismiss totally valid opinions and people who are discussing topics using facts and sources. That's what mature adults do, while children just slap each other and go YOU ARE A POO POO FACE DURR.

You know what your problem is? You don't actually seem to like having a discussion about a subject, but you like to phrase your comments in a way where it makes your argument look good or it makes you look smart or informed. That's fine, everyone wants to look good. But when you're informed that you are wrong, or that your claim has no merit, instead of continuing with a discussion and amending your points to acknowledge that there is a possibility that you're mistaken, you tend to just stop responding and run away instead.

It is annoying when you do that because it makes spending time debating a subject with you pointless and a waste of time. Discussions are meant to draw out multiple opinions and facts so people can learn sometime from someone else's experience.

By dismissing anything you do not like to hear and hand waving, you are limiting your potential to learn anything new.

By not responding to corrections you are disrespecting people who have taken the time to try to improve your knowledge on a subject.

By being rude about any of this, you show how little respect you have for other people, and make it different for anyone to really respect you or your continued presence in such discussions.

I'm have a very difficult time seeing any worthwhile contribution you have in this thread and beyond.

Nice post that can be applied to people in just about every heated thread.

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

But when you're informed that you are wrong, or that your claim has no merit, instead of continuing with a discussion and amending your points to acknowledge that there is a possibility that you're mistaken, you tend to just stop responding and run away instead.

Amazing that he's still doing this even after being called out.

 

[Instro]

I could see KI doing pretty well with the right marketing. A lot of people on GAF seem rather impressed by the recent videos and information, so perhaps that will work for the Japanese consumers as well. It probably doesn't help that March seems like a fairly busy month, and I would imagine its legs will be hurt by KH releasing the following week.

 

[kSt]

OT: When we will get first Vita western sales numbers?

 

[Chris1964]

OT: When we will get first Vita western sales numbers?

GFK will give the numbers for UK this Monday and NPD at beginning of March

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

GFK will give the numbers for UK this Monday and NPD at beginning of March

Will we actually get the NPD numbers?

 

[Salvadora]

Will we actually get the NPD numbers?

If they are good.

 

[Mariah Carey]

But it's really up to Nintendo to make sure the flavor of the game is well communicated. It's a very broad game, with many parts that seem disparate on paper. 3D motion-focused action with rail shooter segments? RPG-like equipment management involving streetpass and spotpass? Online battles? How does it all fit together? I bet a demo would make waves. The videos are pretty much chaos but I bet if you let people control the experience it would help a lot.

Yeah, this is just my own experience talking but I honestly have no idea what type of game Kid Icarus is. When it was first announced I thought it would be a platformer of some kind (hopefully a 2D one) but then I found it's... something else and I haven't learned much else since then, aside from bizarre things like it's coming out along with a stand of some kind (?). A lot of that is my fault since I haven't gone out of my way to research the game, but nothing that I've seen has really motivated me to find out more about it.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

OT: When we will get first Vita western sales numbers?

Depends on how well it does. If it's selling good, I would expect a PR within the next two weeks. Or we might have to wait for the NPD numbers to be released along with Sony's PR addressing the number. If it's not in that, then your going to have to pray that someone leaks it (which surely they will).

Personally, I expect a PR within the next week or two.

On Topic: I really believe KI is going to surprise people. Nintendo is showing heavy support, it has an intriguing upgrade/weapon system that should provide a lot of replay value, and a very promising online component. Also they have AR battles with new cards released through chocolate candy, and it comes with a cool stand for free.... which is always nice.

I predict > 400k LTD in Japan. The main concern I have (which seems to be a popular one) is that KH is really going to eat into KI's sells.

 

[pieatorium]

Will we actually get the NPD numbers?

If they are good Sony will give them in their press I would assume, otherwise not so sure.

edit : beated

 

[Road]

Road, why did you get FFIX wrong twice? Lol.

Once: happy seeing IX ahead of VIII.

Twice: copy paste.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

GFK will give the numbers for UK this Monday and NPD at beginning of March

:0

Was not aware of that. Very exciting!

 

[Admiral Bone to Pick]

Is this the lowest Wii HW sales have been in Japan? I know that the Wii's best sales have come and gone but that's very low for what is still the home console leader.

 

[frankie_baby]

If they are good.

So highly unlikely we'll get any numbers then

 

[Chris1964]

Will we actually get the NPD numbers?

Not a chance we won't get them directly from NPD or from a subscriber.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

The original Kid Icarus (supposedly) sold 1.76 million copies worldwide. Any idea how much of that is from Japan?

 

[Kazerei]

The original Kid Icarus (supposedly) sold 1.76 million copies worldwide. Any idea how much of that is from Japan?

1.09 million from here and here

 

[squall23]

I guess Tekken is not really a big franchise anymore. People used to be excited for new Tekken's didn't they?

It's big in arcades. Always has been and probably always will be.

 

[Road]

If it is a flagship system, why aren't they rushing to get their flagshipinternal teams working on games coming out in the next year? Where are the flagship third party games? Again, by this point for the 3DS, we had a good idea on where they were.

I think it's funny people think their portables consoles are as important to Sony as their home consoles.

 

[Spiegel]

Tekken, Ace Combat and similar games are never going to sell well on 3DS, anywhere. PSP could get away with these spinoffs and ports because at that time they were graphically impressive and comparable to games on home consoles and were "new experiences" never seen before on a handheld.

In the case of Tekken 3DS it also doesn't help that Namco forgot to include single player modes.

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

Yeah, this is just my own experience talking but I honestly have no idea what type of game Kid Icarus is. When it was first announced I thought it would be a platformer of some kind (hopefully a 2D one) but then I found it's... something else and I haven't learned much else since then, aside from bizarre things like it's coming out along with a stand of some kind (?). A lot of that is my fault since I haven't gone out of my way to research the game, but nothing that I've seen has really motivated me to find out more about it.

After reading the Iwata Asks for Kid Icarus, I understood what the game was trying to accomplish. But before that I had no idea, and it took five pages of interview text for me to get all of it.

The game's design reminds me of Smash Bros on an abstract level. Smash Bros is an action platformer with fighting elements and extra chaos. Kid Icarus is a third person movement action game, with rail shooting elements, and in-depth equipment system and extra chaos. So there's some wider appeal to be seen once you boil it down a bit, but on the other hand it wasn't easy for me to be able to succinctly describe the game.

If Nintendo ad campaign doesn't open wallets, I still maintain that word of mouth and watching other people play will push the game into non-bomb territory over time. But how it sells out of the gate (which will influence the velocity of the word-of-mouth) will depend on how Nintendo handles the coming month.

 

[Road]

:0

Was not aware of that. Very exciting!

Gfk will give numbers to people who pay for them.

Is this the lowest Wii HW sales have been in Japan? I know that the Wii's best sales have come and gone but that's very low for what is still the home console leader.

http://garaph.info/labs/besttoworst.php//sys/Wii

 

[duckroll]

In the case of Tekken 3DS it also doesn't help that Namco forgot to include single player modes.

Yeah one major definition of Tekken home versions are the CG endings for each character.

 

[DrWong]

Ok let me try to play the KI-U prediction game, taking in account what was said here and my own (junior's)... feelings.

I think the game will have a 80k/100k first week and pass, with legs, the 400k ltd in Japan. It will sell more than 1.2m worldwide. The game has visual appeal, content, complete multiplayer, big promotion from Nintendo and if the gameplay is not f..., it should be able to sell on the long run. These are my lowest expectations but I wouldn't be surprised, as things are going ("momentum!") for Nintendo with the 3DS to see KI-U beyond the 500k in Jp and around 2m ww.

 

[electroplankton]

Ok let me try to play the KI-U prediction game, taking in account what was said here and my own (junior's)... feelings.

I think the game will have a 80k/100k first week and pass, with legs, the 400k ltd in Japan. It will sell more than 1.2m worldwide. The game has visual appeal, content, complete multiplayer, big promotion from Nintendo and if the gameplay is not f..., it should be able to sell on the long run. These are my lowest expectations but I wouldn't be surprised, as things are going ("momentum!") for Nintendo with the 3DS to see KI-U beyond the 500k in Jp and around 2m ww.

Yeah, I think Nintendo will promote it quite well, and not just in the first month.

 

[oldie-newbie]

Time to update the "Fucked in Japan" graph




Be careful PS Vita, be careful...

 

[AceBandage]

I would like to see the studies conducted by the "Fucked In Japan Institute".

 

[oldie-newbie]

I would like to see the studies conducted by the "Fucked In Japan Institute".

Yes, it would be so great !!!

 

[I Stalk Alone]

I would like to see the studies conducted by the "Fucked In Japan Institute".

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I would like to see the studies conducted by the "Fucked In Japan Institute".

Well, you can look at the studies, but they're all mosaic-censored.

 

[Chris1964]

Looking around some retailer blogs I don't see any big surprises today, Naruto may have done a little better than expected.

In general it looks a good day.

 

[timetokill]

Well, you can look at the studies, but they're all mosaic-censored.

Hahahaha nice

 

[electroplankton]

Looking around some retailer blogs I don't see any big surprises today, Naruto may have done a little better than expected.

In general it looks a good day.

HM?

 

[I Stalk Alone]

Well, you can look at the studies, but they're all mosaic-censored.

its ok you can borrow one of these.

 

[Jocchan]

Every time I see KI, all I can think of is Killer Instinct. :/

It means you're a good person.

 

[DGRE]

Really hoping that KI finds success. Nintendo needs to find a way to communicate this to consumers: If you like Smash Bros., you will enjoy this! It'd be great to see a new Nintendo core franchise enjoy some real success.

 

[Father_Brain]

OT: When we will get first Vita western sales numbers?

SCEA should issue a press release/statement no later than the end of next week. If we don't get one or it's suspiciously worded, we can assume sales are pretty bad.