Support NeoGAF

[beril]

Interesting numbers, you are right, first week sales say nothing about the overall performance of a title, to much other factors are influencing these sales and it seems, that a title like MGS has reached it's first week potential with it's 2nd incarnation. It would be interesting to compare the overall sales for these titles to see how they did in the end and to see how much first week potential tells about how the title does in the end.
Let's wait and see, how New Love Plus performs in the end.
It would be awesome, if it would reach the numbers of Love Plus+.

Eh, I don't think his point was that we should dismiss first week numbers; the LTD numbers for those games are also very close despite difference in install base at their release

Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 798,185
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 819,807
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 706,461
Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker 790,053
(can't find numbers for MGS1 but I belive it was around 800k as well)

 

[duckroll]

Eh, I don't think his point was that we should dismiss first week numbers; the LTD numbers for those games are also very close despite difference in install base at their release

Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 798,185
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 819,807
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 706,461
Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker 790,053
(can't find numbers for MGS1 but I belive it was around 800k as well)

MGS1 sold just under 700k (674k in all of 1998, didn't chart enough in 1999 so <38k). They released MGS Integral pretty quickly, so that replaced it.

 

[Sadist]

5th in the prediction league? I'm okay with this.

 

[twothunder]

Update- legend didn't show up on the first chart for some reason, but red is 3DS, green is PSV

Thanks OrangeGrayBlue. Did you save all the Media Create numbers?
The 3DS/Vita gap just keeps getting bigger ,despite the 3DS launch troubles in Japan and Vita's Christmas launch.

 

[Chris23235]

Eh, I don't think his point was that we should dismiss first week numbers; the LTD numbers for those games are also very close despite difference in install base at their release

Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 798,185
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 819,807
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 706,461
Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker 790,053
(can't find numbers for MGS1 but I belive it was around 800k as well)

Thanks, I thought they would differ more.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Thanks OrangeGrayBlue. Did you save all the Media Create numbers?
The 3DS/Vita gap just keeps getting bigger ,despite the 3DS launch troubles in Japan and Vita's Christmas launch.

'Fraid not. I just went through the old media create threads and looked them up.

edit- regarding the gap, I shudder to think of how this chart will look in 6 months time.

 

[Road]

WTF happened with that graph from Nintendo.

One pixel on that graph contains 16k units. Your 77k estimation + 16k = 93k.

The graph is strange, anyway. I'm trying to make it work with the actual values and it's not really matching nicely.

It's also possible it was a preliminary number from MC -- enough to know it crossed 5 million, but not enough to publish exact numbers.

 

[donny2112]

I'd wager it's a symptom of the 3DS having less competition when it launched, even though the amount of apathy was probably comparable.

There probably was a lot of apathy what with the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown going on. Good thing Vita (and Japan) doesn't have to deal with that now!

 

[ffdgh]

oh wow pacman XD
vita sells will rise eventually.

 

[liger05]

I'd wager it's a symptom of the 3DS having less competition when it launched, even though the amount of apathy was probably comparable. So those people who wanted something newfangled picked up a 3DS in March, even though there were no games in particular they wanted. The people who feel that way right now don't need to go to the Vita, they can pick up a 3DS instead and get some highly desirable software as well.

Well there was still the PSP

 

[timetokill]

Damn, 3DS is killing it! Amazing.

Also, gamers who have both a Vita and a 3DS are more likely to choose the technically superior Vita version over the 3DS one.

Pure conjecture, right? Who says they wouldn't choose the 3DS one for the 3D visuals? I mean, we're not talking a huge difference between the two versions otherwise. I know I'd rather have the 3D visuals as opposed to the comparatively minor visual benefits of the Vita version, personally.

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

Pure conjecture, right? Who says they wouldn't choose the 3DS one for the 3D visuals? I mean, we're not talking a huge difference between the two versions otherwise. I know I'd rather have the 3D visuals as opposed to the comparatively minor visual benefits of the Vita version, personally.

It is pure conjecture, and it really will be one of those issues the market will have to decide. It might even change from game to game. The Vita has a gorgeous screen, high pixel density, good show. But as you said, the 3DS has an extremely good implementation of 3D (and a higher user base, but duckroll's taking that down). So it's a toss up.

 

[Portugeezer]

Glad 3DS is doing well. Vita needs a killer app.

 

[Bullza2o]

Glad 3DS is doing well. Vita needs a killer app.

I thought Gravity Daze was the killer app.

 

[InsaneZero]

I thought Gravity Daze was the killer app.

Gravity Daze was never considered a killer app.

 

[guek]

3DS going strong. This year's lineup looks absolutely killer too. After KH, I don't see any other really big standout sellers announced but there's a slew of really solid stuff coming at a good pace that should keep the hardware afloat.

Vita needs a big shot in the arm. I'm anxious to hear what first day numbers are in the west. I'm not expecting much, but hey it's possible we'll be pleasantly surprised. If GDC has no really compelling news though, Vita is in for a rough couple months heading up to E3. I'm sure sony has a plan. They better. If this E3 comes and goes and there's nothing there to raise confidence in vita, the whole platform could end up being one huge debacle.

Wii sales in Japan are absolutely pathetic. Not sure what nintendo could do to turn it around at this point. Without meaningful new software in any form, the console seems to be at a saturation point. Even when Wii software hits the charts, it doesn't boost hardware sales. At this point, I wonder how much money nintendo is making off the thing and whether or not a price drop would be a good financial idea.

Man, I hope GDC is good this year...

 

[Chris1964]

New releases {2012.03.01}

[3DS] Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo) (¥4.800)
[3DS] Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles <ADV> (FuRyu) (¥5.229)

[PSP] Great Battle Full Blast # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.280)
[PSP] Great Battle Full Blast [Twin Battle Box] <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥11.530)
[PSP] Fairy Tail: Portable Guild (PSP the Best) <ACT> (Konami) (¥2.940)
[PSP] Tir Na Nog: Yuukyuu no Jin (SystemSoft Selection) <RPG> (SystemSoft Alpha) (¥3.129)

[PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.190)
[PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors [Treasure Box] <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥12.390)
[PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors [PlayStation 3 Gold Edition] <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥38.170)
[PS3] UFC Undisputed 3 <SPT> (Konami) (¥7.329)

[360] UFC Undisputed 3 <SPT> (Konami) (¥7.329)

 

[Chris1964]

One pixel on that graph contains 16k units. Your 77k estimation + 16k = 93k.

The graph is strange, anyway. I'm trying to make it work with the actual values and it's not really matching nicely.

It's also possible it was a preliminary number from MC -- enough to know it crossed 5 million, but not enough to publish exact numbers.

I put a line with the real Media Create numbers over it and it didn't match everywhere. Some weeks it went higher, some lower (small differences but still) . Either they used rounded numbers or the compression of the image was bad and streched it.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

After KH, I don't see any other really big standout sellers announced

What about Animal crossing and Tomodachi collection?

 

[Busaiku]

I don't see any other really big standout sellers announced but there's a slew of really solid stuff coming at a good pace that should keep the hardware afloat.

You're saying Animal Crossing, Friend Collection, Monster Hunter 4, and a new 2D Super Mario Bros game aren't big sellers?

 

[Brazil]

You're saying Animal Crossing, Friend Collection, Monster Hunter 4, and a new 2D Super Mario Bros game aren't big sellers?

There's also Dragon Quest Monsters and the new Dr. Kawashima game.

 

[guek]

What about Animal crossing and Tomodachi collection?

I mean with set release dates. Or does tomodachi collection have one already? Obviously there are going to be some really big games in the 2nd half of the year, they're just not set yet.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

You're saying Animal Crossing, Friend Collection, Monster Hunter 4, and a new 2D Super Mario Bros game aren't big sellers?

Or brain training which was anounced to release this summer.

 

[BassForever]

Do Fire Emblem titles sell well? Or are they more cult games in Japan?

 

[Chris1964]

Or brain training which was anounced to release this summer.

For 100th time it's not Brain Training, but even if it was nothing guarantees a big hit.

I wonder what's happening with Luigi's Mansion 2. We had almost the exact date for Europe and it would be one of Nintendo's first titles of the year. Now I see other games get dates but nothing for a title that was supposed to be almost completed. March, Aprl and May are closed and the way it goes it will lose and Q2.

 

[Brazil]

Do Fire Emblem titles sell well? Or are they more cult games in Japan?

[GBA] FIRE EMBLEM: THE SEALED SWORD {2002-03-29} - 126.267 / 345.574
[GBA] FIRE EMBLEM: BLAZING SWORD {2003-04-25} - 109.429 / 265.286
[GBA] FIRE EMBLEM: THE SACRED STONES {2004-10-07} - 146.026 / 236.370
[GCN] FIRE EMBLEM: PATH OF RADIANCE {2005-04-20} - 100.357 / 156.413
[WII] FIRE EMBLEM: RADIANT DAWN {2007-02-22} - 73.337 / 171.924
[NDS] FIRE EMBLEM: SHADOW DRAGON {2008-08-07} - 180.697 / 252.309
[NDS] FIRE EMBLEM: SHIN MONSHOU NO NAZO: HERO OF LIGHT AND SHADOW {2010-07-15} - 147.045 / 247.248

 

[Tempy]

[GBA] FIRE EMBLEM: THE SEALED SWORD {2002-03-29} - 126.267 / 345.574
[GBA] FIRE EMBLEM: BLAZING SWORD {2003-04-25} - 109.429 / 265.286
[GBA] FIRE EMBLEM: THE SACRED STONES {2004-10-07} - 146.026 / 236.370
[GCN] FIRE EMBLEM: PATH OF RADIANCE {2005-04-20} - 100.357 / 156.413
[WII] FIRE EMBLEM: RADIANT DAWN {2007-02-22} - 73.337 / 171.924
[NDS] FIRE EMBLEM: SHADOW DRAGON {2008-08-07} - 180.697 / 252.309
[NDS] FIRE EMBLEM: SHIN MONSHOU NO NAZO: HERO OF LIGHT AND SHADOW {2010-07-15} - 147.045 / 247.248

I hope that doesn't discourage them from making more non-handheld entries though.

 

[Refugio]

I mean with set release dates. Or does tomodachi collection have one already? Obviously there are going to be some really big games in the 2nd half of the year, they're just not set yet.

Nah Friend Collection doesn't have a release date. I think nintendo listed it as tba last time. It was the only one without a 2012 date.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'd say you should go lower - maybe 5000.

That said, in between now and Persona 4, at least two games should sell at least 20k:

3/29 Pro Yakyuu Spirits 2012 (Konami)
4/26 Ciel Nosurge (Gust)

.....that's it.

Pro Yakyuu Spirits seems to do about 150K launch week across the PSP/PS3 - with more on the PS3 despite a smaller installed base. Wonder whether that will translate at all to the PSV.

 

[zroid]

Well there was still the PSP

Yeah, but that didn't have that new tech buzz surrounding it, which probably helped the 3DS some one year ago. Until it undeservedly became the laughing stock of the industry-at-large, anyway. ;/

There probably was a lot of apathy what with the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown going on. Good thing Vita (and Japan) doesn't have to deal with that now!

lol, forgot about that, to be honest >_<. Not sure what your point is, though. I'm just saying I don't think people in Japan cared all that much about the 3DS in March 2011, and they care about the Vita as much right now. Difference in sales (initially) is due to being the first out of the gate.

 

[nickcv]

Yeah, but that didn't have that new tech buzz surrounding it, which probably helped the 3DS some one year ago. Until it undeservedly became the laughing stock of the industry-at-large, anyway. ;/

i get your point guys, but really Vita launched right before xmas... thats the best sell boost you can ever have for a launch.

 

[squall23]

Apart from Rhythm Heaven, when was the last time a rhythm game did massive numbers in japan? People should have learned not to expect every game with final fantasy in the name to sell gangbusters by now

This doesn't exactly count but Jubeat Plus was the most profitable app on itunes by a Japanese company last year by far, and this game is technically region-locked.

 

[Mpl90]

Past entries for some of the future 3DS releases

[360] Culdcept Saga (Bandai Namco) - 19.984 / 23.947 / 83,45% 22/11/06
[NDS] Culdcept DS (Sega) - 50.468 / 85.010 / 59,37% 16/10/08
[PS1] Culdcept: Expansion (Media Factory) - 39.700 / 128.669 / 30,85% 28/04/99
[PS1] Culdcept: Expansion Plus (Media Factory) - 7.347 / 7.347 / 100,00% 30/11/00
[PS2] Culdcept Second Expansion (Sega) - 33.921 / 79.546 / 42,64% 26/09/02
[SAT] Culdcept (Sega) - 19.500 / 31.096 / 62,71% 30/10/97
[SDC] Culdcept Second (Media Factory) - 33.947 / 65.501 / 51,83% 12/07/01

[GBA] Soccer Team Building: Calcio Bit (Nintendo) - 9.331 / 28.363 / 32,90% 18/05/06

[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2nd (Sega) - 242.717 / 341.663 / 71,04% 29/07/10
[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Extend (Sega) - 189.196 / 234.627 / 80,64% 10/11/11
[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva (Sega) - 101.486 / 187.558 / 54,11% 02/07/09
[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva [Dekkai-Ohaidoku han / Ohaidoku han ] (Sega) - 28.938 / 72.726 / 39,79% 24/06/10

[GBA] Mario Tennis: Power Tour (Nintendo) - 42.857 / 135.815 / 31,56% 13/09/05
[N64] Mario Tennis 64 (Nintendo) - 213.422 / 833.908 / 25,59% 21/07/00
[NGB] Mario Tennis GB (Nintendo) - 108.870 / 357.983 / 30,41% 01/11/00

[NDS] Rune Factory: A Fantasy Harvest Moon (Marvelous Entertainment) - 39.973 / 145.346 / 27,50% 24/08/06
[NDS] Rune Factory 2 (Marvelous Entertainment) - 56.082 / 116.287 / 48,23% 03/01/08
[NDS] Rune Factory 3 (Marvelous Entertainment) - 44.894 / 85.648 / 52,42% 22/10/09

[NDS] Etrian Odyssey II: Heroes of Lagaard (Atlus Co.) - 85.555 / 145.421 / 58,83% 21/02/08
[NDS] Etrian Odyssey III: The Downed City (Atlus Co.) - 94.462 / 139.576 / 67,68% 01/04/10
[NDS] Etrian Odyssey (Atlus Co.) - 31.702 / 122.461 / 25,89% 18/01/07

 

[Chris1964]

Do Fire Emblem titles sell well? Or are they more cult games in Japan?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=22329464&postcount=153

 

[Anth0ny]

Gravity Daze was never considered a killer app.

That's not the vibe I got from GAF, lol.

 

[Spiegel]

That's not the vibe I got from GAF, lol.

You don't know the meaning of 'killer app' then.

 

[test_account]

That's not the vibe I got from GAF, lol.

Pretty much every game is a killer app for someone, but when we talk about killer app it is more about a general thing, games like Monster Hunter and Mario Kart etc..

 

[Lord_Byron28]

For 100th time it's not Brain Training, but even if it was nothing guarantees a big hit.

I wonder what's happening with Luigi's Mansion 2. We had almost the exact date for Europe and it would be one of Nintendo's first titles of the year. Now I see other games get dates but nothing for a title that was supposed to be almost completed. March, Aprl and May are closed and the way it goes it will lose and Q2.

If you want to argue semantics about whether or not it carries the Brain Training moniker than be my guest. However, Dr. Kawashima's comments on the project say that it is his and Nintendo's follow up to Brain Training 2. As well as the gameplay being extremely similar to the original two except training a different part of your brain and a Devil Dr. Kawashima. You can argue whether it is a sequel to it or is a new franchise under Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training umbrella but I think the intent is there regardless.

Also, you're saying that a sequel to a(roughly) 5.5 million selling game could sell less than 500,000-800,000? Is there any sort of precedent set where a large franchise as Brain Training has sold only 10-15% of its predecessor? Even Nintendogs which sold 1.5 million last gen has managed to sell about 500K and is still selling. This is an honest question because it seems crazy to suggest that a 5.5 million selling game's sequel can't sell a few 100 K which would be a significant release in the 3DS schedule.

 

[MasterSheen]

3DS SW sales are very excellent, HW higher than expected. Vita sales continue to be depressing, will fall below 10k very soon. What 3DS games in March should sell decently, besides KH3D?
And #15, not bad for my first try Hit GPD numbers right on the mark.

 

[guek]

3DS SW sales are very excellent, HW higher than expected. Vita sales continue to be depressing, will fall below 10k very soon. What 3DS games in March should sell decently, besides KH3D?

Possibly kid icarus?

 

[pieatorium]

Is there any sort of precedent set where a large franchise as Brain Training has sold only 10-15% of its predecessor?

Guitar Hero?

 

[Chris1964]

Also, you're saying that a sequel to a(roughly) 5.5 million selling game could sell less than 500,000? Is there any sort of precedent set where a large franchise as Brain Training has sold only 10-15% of its predecessor? Even Nintendogs which sold 1.5 million last gen has managed to sell about 500K-800K and is still selling. This is an honest question because it seems crazy to suggest that a 5.5 million selling game's sequel can't sell a few 100 K which would be a significant release in the 3DS schedule.

I've made this discussion before and I will become boring repeating the same things again but Brain Training belongs to a genre that sales fall exponentially year after year and there are many games from that DS period that have seen similar drops, big sellers among them.
You only have to see how many games like that are releasing now and how many 4 years ago.

Since you mention Nintendogs Japan is the anomally again, as it had that kind of drop everywhere else.

 

[boiled goose]

That's not the vibe I got from GAF, lol.

Never considered a killer app at all.
Nor a system seller.

More like a good game at lauch. that is about it. New IPs are rarely system sellers let alone in japan.

 

[DrWong]

As there's nothing to compare with in terms of sales, how do you think KI Uprising will/could/should perform ? I know it's not a new discussion here but I'm curious to know if expectations have evolved with all the latest trailers and regarding how the 3DS keep the pace. So, more or less than 500k ltd for KI U ?

 

[frankie_baby]

3DS SW sales are very excellent, HW higher than expected. Vita sales continue to be depressing, will fall below 10k very soon. What 3DS games in March should sell decently, besides KH3D?
And #15, not bad for my first try Hit GPD numbers right on the mark.

That hatsune miku(or whatever its called) game should sell incredibly well I think and its out in 2 weeks

 

[frankie_baby]

As there's nothing to compare with in terms of sales, how do you think KI Uprising will/could/should perform ? I know it's not a new discussion here but I'm curious to know if expectations have evolved with all the latest trailers and regarding how the 3DS keep the pace. So, more or less than 500k ltd for KI U ?

Well less than 500k. If it does over 300k lifetime that'll be a massive success for it

 

[Mr Swine]

Well less than 500k. If it does over 300k lifetime that'll be a massive success for it

I believe it will land around 100-150k lifetime

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Guitar Hero?

Speaking about Japan here and GH's decline happened over tons of different installments being pumped out.

I've made this discussion before and I will become boring repeating the same things again but Brain Training belongs to a genre that sales fall exponentially year after year and there are many games from that DS period that have seen similar drops, big sellers among them.
You only have to see how many games like that are releasing now and how many 4 years ago.

Since you mention Nintendogs Japan is the anomally again, as it had that kind of drop everywhere else.

Hmmm thanks for the input... well I guess we'll have to see how Oni Training/Brain Training/whatever does comparitively. As said before content, pricing and marketing will have to be analyzed but I don't see this game not selling a few 100K. I don't expect it to be a major event with everyone purchasing it either but I could see it performing similarly to Nintendogs + Cats does in relation to the BT series.

IDK personally I'd say that game is the next significant game after Kingdom Hearts but I guess we'll see as launch approaches and the rest of SalesGaf consesus.

 

[beril]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=22329464&postcount=153

Interesting; I had always assumed the famicom titles were bigger, as most first party franchises seemed to sell less on SFC. I would have guessed close to a million for the first game.

 

[frankie_baby]

I believe it will land around 100-150k lifetime

Seriously if it sells that badly after all the effort nintendo is throwing at it, Sakurai is getting the sack