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Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2013 (Feb 18 - Feb 24)

Wynnebeck

Banned
This price cut isn't going to do anything. Unless Sony bombards the hell out of people with SS, this thing isn't getting above 35k.
 
1) the question is how much those Nintendo franchises will drive the user base, not if. And it is a pretty big question mark. 1 million? 5 million? 50 million?
I dunno, I just find the revisionist take that Wii Sports and only Wii Sports ever sold Wii hardware a little hard to swallow. Sort of like when people used the same argument for Brain-Age/Nintendogs on DS back in 2011.


2)The wii sold from day 1 because of it's motion control hardware, & the PS4 will sell from day 1 because because it represents a 10X increase in power. When people buy a console they are buying a piece of hardware, and even if they aren't gaf-types, they still want to know that what they are buying is better than what they have at home.

Yes they need to know there are games, but a hardware purchase is still a hardware purchase.

The only question mark wrt ps4 is can MS deliver a much more compelling product at a lower price. If that happens, it is possible that Sony could even lose the Japanese market.
Sony's already lost the Japanese market. To 3DS. And they don't have those PS2 "good feelings" to try a leverage commitments for old time's sake this cycle either. Look at how Vita turned out, and this in a market where PSP nearly matched PS2 even.

Also, how did PS3 do day one with a 10x power increase and "no games"?
 
I just hope something catches on.

I mean... one successful platform in a market of a half a dozen would scare the shit out of me. At this point I don't really care what Japan buys. But the market does need to have some degree of growth. Even if it is only in one sector.
 
I just hope something catches on.

I mean... one successful platform in a market of a half a dozen would scare the shit out of me. At this point I don't really care what Japan buys. But the market does need to have some degree of growth. Even if it is only in one sector.

In the last generation, we basically had just PS2 and GBA. A leading handheld and a leading home console to me seems fine, and quite reasonable. Less platforms to buy, more games concentrated just on two platforms.
 

SmokyDave

Member
Next week is shaping up to be interesting. Personally, I don't think the Vita will break 100k or outsell the 3DS, but it's going to make for interesting viewing regardless.

In the last generation, we basically had just PS2 and GBA. A leading handheld and a leading home console to me seems fine, and quite reasonable. Less platforms to buy, more games concentrated just on two platforms.

Lack of competition breeds complacency. Plus, handheld games would be limited by the 3DS' tech and that would suck.
 

udivision

Member
I think it would be nice for Nintendo to have a competitor that wasn't GREE/DeNA, so I wish them luck.

Since we're not going to get a one console environment any time soon, I actually think it'd be more interesting if we could see how a one handheld market could work in the face of the mobile uprising and blurred lines between console/handheld output. But that's just me, and I don't own any handheld anyway.
 

Takao

Banned
What's so bad about it?

When backing out of the menu the game's resolution drops, and can look like this:

2013-02-27-175411_zps527923d9.jpg


I've heard the frame rate is also quite shaky.

It's not like that all the time, but when I imagine when it is ... yikes.
 
Lack of competition breeds complacency. Plus, handheld games would be limited by the 3DS' tech and that would suck.

There's a lot of competition: browser and mobile phone games. It might be enough. And so far, I still have to see a game that would be heavily limited on 3DS. We're not in the DS-PSP era anymore, where MH wasn't possible on the former.
 

Turrican3

Member
Even if we lower that to 3000 over 10 years, that's 300 more a year, which would still make a notable impact in the shorter term in combination with things like partnerships.
They had 3150 employees back in march 2006, after 6 years (03/2012) they have slightly more than 4900.

Of course I have no idea about their duties inside the company, but it doesn't seem that crazy to believe lots, if not all of those people could be developers.
 

Mondriaan

Member
There's a lot of competition: browser and mobile phone games. It might be enough. And so far, I still have to see a game that would be heavily limited on 3DS. We're not in the DS-PSP era anymore, where MH wasn't possible on the former.
Well, MH is a franchise that is still carrying over questionable design decisions based on its origins on the PS2, milking its fan base with mostly recycled stuff and a few new monsters and equipment, and limiting improvements mostly to cosmetic features, so I would really look for a different example. I would 100% still complain about those design decisions if it were still designed the same way and it was on the Vita, but I suppose system power could always be rolled out as an excuse for a lack of progress with MH and the 3DS.

It's the reason we won't be seeing a truly improved version of MH on the Wii U.
 

SmokyDave

Member
There's a lot of competition: browser and mobile phone games. It might be enough. And so far, I still have to see a game that would be heavily limited on 3DS. We're not in the DS-PSP era anymore, where MH wasn't possible on the former.
I've snipped and PM'd you my response because I feel it might derail the thread.
 

saichi

Member
Animal Crossing, Monster Hunter, Pokemon- Japan (edit: I'm no expert on Japanese tastes. These are just 3 games I see bump hardware sales in a huge way when they release. There's probably more)

Pokemon - West

So all consoles are doomed since none of the system sellers on consoles?

That is not to say it isn't a potential reason for people to buy the system, nor that the system sales wouldn't be even worse without it. But in my mind a "system seller" should be able to spur significant sales, otherwise every game is essentially a system seller.

The problem with this is that no matter how big a system seller is, it can't support one platform by itself. If Pokemon/MH/AC is released early in system life and leave it for 3+ months with no other games, they are not gonna sell many systems either. They will become the one game people who buy when they buy a system instead of buying the system for the game.

EDIT:
People are actually buying NGS2+ in Japan? The first one did like 5k on Vita opening week, no? Sigma 2+ is also supposed to be a really bad port.

It's sold out so it must be selling a lot!
 

zroid

Banned
Well, MH is a franchise that is still carrying over design decisions based on its origins on the PS2, milking its fan base with mostly recycled stuff and a few new monsters and equipment, and limiting improvements mostly to cosmetic features, so I would really look for a different example.

I guess you missed those MH4 trailers
 
Well, MH is a franchise that is still carrying over design decisions based on its origins on the PS2, milking its fan base with mostly recycled stuff and a few new monsters and equipment, and limiting improvements mostly to cosmetic features, so I would really look for a different example.

Probably you don't know much about MH4, which is adding a lot of new stuffs wrt previous entries: online, more action-focused battles, wider areas, an actual plot, et cetera. I don't think MH would have evolved differently if it was on Vita.
 
Would be nice to see Vita actually do decently for a bit. I don't really think it has a chance of a sustaining any kind of bump at all with the release schedule it has, but I certainly hope it finds its place in the market. It deserves to keep failing in the west with those ridiculous memory prices and no price drop though.

So all consoles are doomed since none of the system sellers on consoles?

I don't know about doomed, but I have doubts about a console selling over 15 million in Japan anytime soon with Japan's biggest sellers on handhelds, or more specifically right now the 3DS. If the 3DS didn't exist, I imagine Wii U would be doing much better than it is, but when it comes to choosing between the two there is no comparison.
 

Mondriaan

Member
Probably you don't know much about MH4, which is adding a lot of new stuffs wrt previous entries: online, more action-focused battles, wider areas, an actual plot, et cetera. I don't think MH would have evolved differently if it was on Vita.
I've read about what they're planning. Capcom will probably RE6 MH in the process of "evolving" it. Those changes struck me as doing everything they can to avoid dealing with fixing tiny zones and a mediocre online system.
 

Alrus

Member
You guys expect Senran Kagura and Ninja Gaiden to be better system sellers than P4G or Hatsune Miku? The previous Ninja Gaiden on PSV bombed really hard in Japan and Senran Kagura won't do crazy numbers either (although the anime might help, I don't know if it's popular or not).

80k seems outlandish.
 
You guys expect Senran Kagura and Ninja Gaiden to be better system sellers than P4G or Hatsune Miku? The previous Ninja Gaiden on PSV bombed really hard in Japan and Senran Kagura won't do crazy numbers either (although the anime might help, I don't know if it's popular or not).

80k seems outlandish.

I think pent up demand for the system will shoot it to around 50k. Senran Kagura and Ninja Gaiden will just be the beneficiaries of the price drop. The fun part will be PSO2 and Soul Sacrifice sales. 80k is possible, but I think closer to 60k is what will happen.
 
I've read about what they're planning. Capcom will probably RE6 MH in the process of "evolving" it. Those changes struck me as doing everything they can to avoid dealing with fixing tiny zones and a mediocre online system.

Online is new for an handheld entry. Also: there are no much detail now. Also: tiny zones won't be tiny anymore, but larger. Not an open-world, but not even as in the previous entries. They're trying to evolve the game around gameplay ideas, at least.
 
You guys expect Senran Kagura and Ninja Gaiden to be better system sellers than P4G or Hatsune Miku? The previous Ninja Gaiden on PSV bombed really hard in Japan and Senran Kagura won't do crazy numbers either (although the anime might help, I don't know if it's popular or not).

80k seems outlandish.

I think people are saying combination of those + price drop + pso2 + games in march will combine for a decent week.

I agree with you though, 80k is not happening. I predicted 20k, which seems a little low now,but I'll stick with it.
 

Mondriaan

Member
Online is new for an handheld entry. Also: there are no much detail now. Also: tiny zones won't be tiny anymore, but larger. Not an open-world, but not even as in the previous entries. They're trying to evolve the game around gameplay ideas, at least.
Certainly online is new, but are you going to be satisfied with pre-set shout-outs like "I'm setting a bomb!" and dancing gestures or do you think that you're going to be writing out chat messages to your on-line buddies?

Or maybe there will be left over horsepower on the 3DS to support voice chat because the memory they're saving on ground textures has to be going somewhere?

You're apparently a much more optimistic person than I am.
 

Alrus

Member
I think pent up demand for the system will shoot it to around 50k. Senran Kagura and Ninja Gaiden will just be the beneficiaries of the price drop. The fun part will be PSO2 and Soul Sacrifice sales. 80k is possible, but I think closer to 60k is what will happen.

I don't think PSO2 will do that well... Certainly people know they can get the game for free?
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I don't think PSO2 will do that well... Certainly people know they can get the game for free?

I feel I should mention that a $30 version of Angry Birds is the best selling third party 3DS game in the US, so there definitely are examples of people being willing to pay far more than they have to for something.

The $40 console versions did pretty well too.
 

Road

Member
I don't think PSO2 will do that well... Certainly people know they can get the game for free?

Expect surprise next week when PSO2 fails to sell as much as PSP.

I mean, there's still people who says DQX is a disappointment because it didn't sell as much as IX...

stealth edit: quote barrage...
 

Takao

Banned
I don't think PSO2 will do that well... Certainly people know they can get the game for free?

It may not be represented in the Media Create charts with the physical releas,e but I suspect PSO2 will do well on Vita. Kawano (SCEJ's head) said SEGA's other F2P Vita game, Samurai & Dragons, has done very well on PSN.
 
To be honest, also Demon Gaze has a lot, really a lot of fanservice.
The pre-release images focused on fanservice, but the reports from people who played the game noted there was actually very little of it. Considering the game is still charting, I would say it's success was more from good word of mouth than marketing tricks.

I thought Demon Gaze was a brand new IP? Which established IP(s) is also included in Demon Gaze?
Demon Gaze is a vaguely related spin-off from Students of the Round, which was originally released on PC, and then ported to 360 and PSP (selling 5k each).
 

donny2112

Member
If there isn't a price drop prior to Wii Fit U, do you think Japanese consumers will drop ¥37K/¥32K to play it?

If there is, say, a ¥5K yen discount; do you think consumers will pay ¥32K/¥27K to play it?

I don't think a whole lot would drop either amount just to play it, but it is a system seller to a certain crowd at the right price, so the lower they can get that total price, the more of that crowd will buy it. Still hoping for a 10K Yen/$100 drop, even though that would basically kill Nintendo's profitability in the next year. If the system is going to turn around, that drop has to come before any other systems get implanted in the public mind. Japan seems to have a very "everyone go do this together" mindset. Works great when they need to all pull together to do something for the greater good. Also works against the idea of having two simultaneously successful competing consoles (e.g. I don't consider either Wii or PS3 as having been "successful" over most of/the entire generation in Japan).

That's my take, anyways. Wii Fit U is a system seller but not at any price, and the price is too high, in my opinion.
 

Alrus

Member
It may not be represented in the Media Create charts with the physical releas,e but I suspect PSO2 will do well on Vita. Kawano (SCEJ's head) said SEGA's other F2P Vita game, Samurai & Dragons, has done very well on PSN.

Oh I'm sure the game itself will do fine (the PC version is doing really well isn't it?). I was talking about the expensive physical release.

Expect surprise next week when PSO2 fails to sell as much as PSP.

I honestly doubt anyone expects PSP numbers for PSO2, there's optimism and then there's delusion... But then again as you said, people were saying DQ X bombed despite the completely different business model so who knows...

out of all this wave of vita games it will do the best

It would be pretty sad if Soul Sacrifice sold worse than a F2P game.

I feel I should mention that a $30 version of Angry Birds is the best selling third party 3DS game in the US, so there definitely are examples of people being willing to pay far more than they have to for something.

The $40 console versions did pretty well too.

Holy shit that makes me really sad :/
 

QaaQer

Member
I dunno, I just find the revisionist take that Wii Sports and only Wii Sports ever sold Wii hardware a little hard to swallow. Sort of like when people used the same argument for Brain-Age/Nintendogs on DS back in 2011.

No, it wasn't wii sports per se. It was the idea of motion controls that got consumers excited. I would wager most wii u buyers in the first 2 years didn't even know what the name of the pack in game was.

Sony's already lost the Japanese market. To 3DS. And they don't have those PS2 "good feelings" to try a leverage commitments for old time's sake this cycle either. Look at how Vita turned out, and this in a market where PSP nearly matched PS2 even.

People conflate home consoles and handhelds all the time, and I don't understand why. Home consoles are not the same as handheld consoles any more than bikes are the same as cars. The home console market in Japan has not disappeared.

Besides, the denouement to the Vita's story has not been written yet.

Also, how did PS3 do day one with a 10x power increase and "no games"?

I think it did OK until the price cut boosted sales. It's not like it ever wii u'ed.
 
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