Please don´t start with moving your goalposts. You talked about how people were saying WiiU will beat PS2 and then you showed me posts that talked about NSMBU and PS3/PS4 software instead. Also you still don´t seem to understand that there is quite a difference in saying that million-selling franchises might push some hardware, this doesn´t automatically mean that it will have longterm success or come anywhere near the market leader handheld the 3DS has become, just to put things in perspective it already outsold PS3 userbase.
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Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2013 (Feb 18 - Feb 24)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Please don´t start with moving your goalposts. You talked about how people were saying WiiU will beat PS2 and then you showed me posts that talked about NSMBU and PS3/PS4 software instead. Also you still don´t seem to understand that there is quite a difference in saying that million-selling franchises might push some hardware, this doesn´t automatically mean that it will have longterm success or come anywhere near the market leader handheld the 3DS has become, just to put things in perspective it already outsold PS3 userbase.
well I agree. If the HW numbers are around 40/50K I think that's pretty disappointing (also looking back at PS3 and 3DS price cuts - not saying that it had to be exactly the same, but... - and considering all the facts you pointed out (color, price, game)
How do you know that? (I'm not saying it's not possible).
Well it can be over 100k for all we know, maybe it's true that its 4x over the 2 weeks it has sold but we will know about it tomorrow
StreetsAhead
Member
2週間と比較するとPS Vita本体の売上が4倍程度になったことをSCEJ河野プレジデントが明かしました。
The SCEJ President, Mr. Kano stated that the Vita's sales were about four times higher than the previous two week period, prior to the price cut.
If it was just the sales two weeks ago, not for the previous two week period, I would expect ２週間前 instead of just ２週間 there. However, I could very well be over thinking it. He says 'compared to the two week period prior to the cut' quite clearly.
Yes, if the HW numbers will be around 80K I'd say that it would be pretty good indeed.
We have to wait until tomorrow I think
Bruno MB
Member
Finally a post that is worth reading.
Congratulations to Dr. Feel Good, your prediction was truly accurate, just a 7.5% off.
Ok, I learned to never underestimate the loyal fan base of Metal Gear Solid. My estimate looks so low, especially considering Konami shipped around half a million units. I'm curious about its legs because it could struggle a bit to sell all those copies.
With Dragon Quest VII remake I was quite right. My best case scenario for this title was around what Dragon Quest VI (NDS) sold during the same timeframe (1.178.740). I lowered that figure by around 10% since I expected a softer opening.
Dragon Quest VII shows exactly the same performance than its predecessor.
What are you even talking about?Who moved the goalposts?I am not trying to prove anything here unlike you that you dont miss a chanche to talk about how the WiiU will be the next gen console of Japan or how it's games will outsould the PS4 games(it doesnt matter that we dont know any game yet from Japan,you seem too know everything)and to badmouth VITA and Sony in general.Yes we know that VITA is half-dead and that WiiU will have good sales in Japan when games like Mario,SmashBros will hit Japan and 3DS os the market leader.We all know that we are not delusional.
test_account
XP-39C²
That 30k number for the new color was just the shipping number i think, not how much it sold. Somewhere around 30k shipped is normal for a new color on a system.
Is it "hatred" of Vita or just confidence that it is/will fail? Because those are not the same things. If the GameCube gen is to be followed, then it will probably eventually turn into apathy. People will stop worrying about whether it'll continue down its darksome path or have miraculous turnarounds and just accept what it is (at that point). Guess it's a grief/depressions stage thing, too, then.
but it's not even true that the Wii U is "loved" here around...it debuted well in its first week also compared to the Wii, but some people said even in its first week that it was going to fail hard...
every console is hatred in the Sales age thread ;p
I was specifically talking about NSMBU not WiiU games in general. I also explained why I think this is likely in the post that followed. Since you didn´t have any problem reading my post-history you can easily check my answers and argument on that matter. One of the reasons is that Monster Hunter is the only new 3rd party or non-Nintendo franchise that managed to outsell Final Fantasys main entries in the last 13 years on the same system in Japan.
It is the shipped number I know, I mentioned it because it´s likely that it further pushed some PSV sales besides the price-drop, ad-campaign and releases.
Bending_Unit_22
Member
Could he mean essentially "compared to the average of the previous 2 weeek period" or roughly 4 times 10,000? The way you translate it at first could mean that but would it be said differently in Japanese if that was what was meant?
I realize we'll know soon enough, I'm more interested in the language aspect.
is this based on your interpretation of the quote?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
What I never said that or even insinuated it.
Your the one who accused me of it. You look through these posts and tell me where your basing this accusation on.
Did you not read my previous post?
Code:
Monster Hunter 3 Capcom 7340 1,070,743
Final Fantasy XIII Square Enix 9240 1,904,313I don't understand. Do you mean PSP?
Anyway with the Wii we had these million sellers
I personally think the Wii phenomenon is over. Interesting to see how Wii Fit U does.
I think the only guaranteed million sellers on the WiiU would be:
Mario Kart
MSMBU
Smash
Maybe:
Animal Crossing
3d Mario
Sammy Samusu
Member
Probably because 44k sounds like a true doomed scenario, considering all things (price cut, games, color, bundles).
It's just no possible.
Thanks for the explanation. Tomorrow we'll see what he meant.
1, Price cut wasn't big enough and didn't affect memory card prices.
2, Games weren't system sellers.
3, Who really cares about colours?
4, Bundles weren't enticing due to a combination of 1, 2 & 3.
Sadly, it's perfectly possible.
Father_Brain
Banned
Likely, maybe not. Possible, sure.
Many people, considering the DS alone got a really nice bump every time new colors were released.
Did any other portable? The DS isn't exactly a 'typical' case.
I dunno, maybe I'm boring but wild horses couldn't get me to have a handheld in anything but black. Either way, if the myriad of issues the Vita has could be fixed with new colours, it wouldn't have a myriad of issues.
Magicpaint
Member
PSP also regularly got bumps due to new colours.
not sure if...sarcasm or defensive?
We're discussing whether 44k is possible. I think it is, and provided some speculative reasons. Neither sarcastic nor defensive, just sadly resigned to reality.
IIRC it also worked for the PSP, relatively early life for both.
The DS case seems relevant to me since it sold really well no matter what but still got bumps because of new colors.
I don't really expect the same effect for the Vita though.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
It's called lowering the bar. And the inverse can be argued for Vita detractors as well. This why ascribing fanboy motivations to every poster or comment is so toxic for sales-age.
Personally, I expected a decent increase over the P4G/Miku bumps so I think 80k territory would be an amazing feat, and while 40k-ish might be a bit dissapointing, I don't think
it's at all unreasonable to predict that either.
I said last year when Vita's Q1 started coming together that Sony was looking to stack the deck for what's essentially a system relaunch, and we'd get a price cut to go with it.
Curse you Prediction-GAF.
I was jokin with that image
But Maedhros repliled to you: none of your points is actually "reliable".
Of course everything is possible, but would be a very bad news to see Vita at just 44 with all those activities planned for the week. Most of all a 44k result would mean that there is very little interest in the console, exactly considering how "interesting" would normally be those aformentioned points (for portables in Japan)
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
This has to be one of the bigger Media Create threads outside of a holiday period. Which is definitely a good thing.
Nah, I've slapped my dick on the table at 63,794 units and that's where I'm staying. I'm just prepared for a much lower figure because I personally have very little faith in Soul Sacrifice and I'm not convinced price is the killer issue with the Vita. 44K would definitely be disappointing, but 'disappointing' is the tale of Vita sales to a 't'.
On a personal note, I'd fucking love the thing to have sold a metric shit-ton of units tomorrow and see a higher baseline on an ongoing basis, I just don't think it'll actually happen.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ah ok, i understand. I just ment to say that the 30k number doesnt necessarily indicate how big of a demand there is, because around 30k shipment for a new color is normal. But a new color is likely to help indeed, but who knows how much it will help in this specific Vita case.
It depends a lot if people who havnt bought it yet did it because of the price or the games (or both). I think it 40k - 50k is a possible senario. I'm not predicting anything, just thinking that it can be a possibility.
I wouldnt say that it is lowering the bar if it is a prediction that has some good chance to become reality though (generally speaking about expecting 40k - 50k, its probably possible that someone could lower their prediction eventhough they believe it wont happening, just to lower the bar as you mention). At least in my opinion, 40k-50k is not out of the realm of possibility.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Whats the largest thread we have had?
Maybe you should take a look at the FFs numbers unless you are talking about PSP.
Monster Hunter became a franchise with some entries that sold more than FF main entries, something that is quite seldom in Japan, this is what I mean.
WiiFitU is a kind of game on it´s own and similar to Dr.Kawashima on 3DS not indicative for most other software. In my opinion it is a mistake to release it in WiiUs first year because early adopters aren´t exactly the same demographic the original appealed to, this is also why I couldn´t understand how Nintendo could think Nintendogs as a release title of a 25k yen handheld was a good idea.
Also I think that a possible release of three potential millionsellers in WiiUs first year (NSMBU and maybe MarioKart+3DMario) and (potentialy) good selling games like Nintendoland, Pikmin3, WindWaker is quite different to PSVs first 15 months so far regarding softwaresales.
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
2,527 posts (Week 51, 2011), 1,945 posts (Week 50, 2011), 1,798 posts (Week 48?, 2009), 1,537 posts (Week 51, 2012)
Always have been in December. And here we've got 1,839 posts in end of February! I guess it helps that you have two failing systems that drive a lot of discussion/arguments.
I clarified what I meant in my last post. But if you want to exclude handhelds in the equation it speaks even more in favor of my argument. Because it means that no new franchise sold more than Final Fantasy main entries on Sony consoles for a long time now in Japan and this is one of the reasons I think that it´s not very likely this will change on PS4.
electroplankton
Banned
Wow, those are some lowered expectations!
I think that it is possible to see Vita at 44k units, but it would mean people really don't want the product, i.e. the product is over. No one is expecting a +200k bump, but at least something around 100k. Come on, new colours have always had a positive impact on hardware sales in Japan; games are popular (though not super-popular), the price-cut is quite relevant and there are some interesting bundles.
Well, big publishers will still try to expand themselves in the Western market; Capcom, Square Enix, Konami at least. Those mid and small developers, will be fine on PS3 / 3DS for a while.
I think that it is possible to see Vita at 44k units, but it would mean people really don't want the product, i.e. the product is over. No one is expecting a +200k bump, but at least something around 100k. Come on, new colours have always had a positive impact on hardware sales in Japan; games are popular (though not super-popular), the price-cut is quite relevant and there are some interesting bundles.
Well, big publishers will still try to expand themselves in the Western market; Capcom, Square Enix, Konami at least. Those mid and small developers, will be fine on PS3 / 3DS for a while.
Good question. Let me try some armchair psychology:
Nobody on gaf knows the following:
- Sony's internal numbers are wrt cancelling the Vita. I.e., what are the # of units sold that would make Sony kill the platform?
- Sony's current or projected profit/loss on the Vita project.
- Sony's plans are wrt Vita-PS4 integration.
- Sony's intertal roadmap, i.e. their projected lifespan for the product.
So any absolute statements about the platform are conjecture and/or wishful thinking, both positive and negative.
Next, why would someone 'hate' or have 'confidence' Vita is a walking corpse?
For the hate part, I see it this way:
- prerequisite #1: they need to have personified certain corporations and certain products made by those corporations.
- prerequisite #2: they see these personified corporations/products as being involved in a biological Darwinian survival of the fittest fight to the death. Hence, the habitual use of death and dying metaphors wrt to a disposable plastic entertainment product.
At this point, the group splits into two:
- The first consists of those whose identity in part rests upon which console they play and support. They only 'hate' the other insofar as any success it has must take away from the success of their console. And because part of how these people see and idenfy themselves rests on a personified corporation/console, this hurts them in a personal way.
- The second group consists of those who like to see failure, pain, and death for whatever reason. They are the same people who go to race events to see crashes. It is not hate, but rather a desire to watch something suffer and possibly die.
For those who have 100% confidence, I chalk it up to the following:
- Overconfidence in one's own abilities and insight.
- Narcissism.
- Groupthink.
Language has meaning, and the words people choose to use reflect on their thinking. So, yeah, "take vita out back and shoot it in the head" or "lol vita is dead" or "vita is a walking corpse" type posts tell me something about the posters. (ps you can replace vita with wii u in the above).
Wow, this game of lowering and uppering expectations is fun seeing each "band"
In my opinion, price cut is nice, but not SO relevant (because of the quantity, it's not a 100k yen discount). Even more if memories have not lowered its price.
Games are just OK (not even mid-tiers) for this week. Come on, even 120k for Shinovi has surprised us.
One week ago I predicted 40-50k for Vita for this week considering that facts.
In fact, I'm WAY more curious about next week where price cut will have some effect yet and the launching of Soul Sacrifice.
In my opinion, price cut is nice, but not SO relevant (because of the quantity, it's not a 100k yen discount). Even more if memories have not lowered its price.
Games are just OK (not even mid-tiers) for this week. Come on, even 120k for Shinovi has surprised us.
One week ago I predicted 40-50k for Vita for this week considering that facts.
In fact, I'm WAY more curious about next week where price cut will have some effect yet and the launching of Soul Sacrifice.
For all we know, he could even be talking shipments.
By the way, his name is Kawano. Someone else also called him Kono or something earlier in this thread. Poor guy. I understand, though, for I had never even heard of him until the PS Meeting.
On Vita hardware: http://mantan-web.jp/2013/03/05/20130305dog00m200002000c.html
Tsutaya says last week alone they sold more Vita units than last December.
So maybe 22k this week? *jk*
I know Tsutaya is not necessarily representative for Japan but PSV sold ~80k units from week 48-52 and ~105k units from week 49 (2012) -1 (2013) (MediaCreate).
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I reckon once the news is out the new thread wont get as many pages though it entirely depends on the situation. Vita either has to do amazingly well or bad to get those kind of pages in a media create thread.
Call Me Maybe
Banned
Has Famitsu released an early report yet?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
No......cue even more speculation lol.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Nope.