Support NeoGAF

[Nirolak]

Honestly if I had to guess, the PS4 FFXIV beta is probably what the missing 30% is.

It's one of the most notable games on the platform for the region and one of the only cross-gen games that appeals to Japan that has a really noticeable upgrade with the next-gen version.

We're talking about notably worse visuals at an unstable 30 fps and sub-720p vs. notably improved visuals with an unstable 60 fps and 1080p, and you can also stream it to your Vita, which if you're an MMO player in Japan isn't as unlikely a usecase as normal. It's a big improvement.

 

[Metallix87]

I know you may be a touch negative on Sony (and Microsoft) but theres like 4 big glaring errors in your argument. 1) Shipment numbers 2) Holiday 3) confusing Media Create/Famitsu 4) Assuming a huge company would be disappointed in selling over 80% of stock of their product in 2 days

Ironically, I think the only one of the big three I have not been negative on in nearly a year is Microsoft, so I find your post very interesting.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Honestly if I had to guess, the PS4 FFXIV beta is probably what the missing 30% is.

It's one of the most notable games on the platform for the region and one of the only cross-gen games that appeals to Japan that has a really noticeable upgrade with the next-gen version.

We're talking about notably worse visuals at an unstable 30 fps and sub-720p vs. notably improved visuals with an unstable 60 fps and 1080p, and you can also stream it to your Vita, which if you're an MMO player in Japan isn't as unlikely a usecase as normal. It's a big improvement.

I don't suppose there's any means to check the player counts on the beta?

 

[Mory Dunz]

Not yet.

Dragon Quest XI (inevitable)
Monster Hunter Ultimate 4
Pokemon Z (inevitable)
Super Smash Bros 3DS
Bravely Second
Persona Q
Professor Layton vs. Phoneix Wright
SMT x FE (it's a possibility for the game to switch platform from the dying Wii U)

And Mario Golf. I doubt SMT x FE will switch.

There could be unannounced games that can sell a few 100k so we don't know. Like a ff tactics game.

 

[Frillen]

Namco set publisher expectations for the PS4 by the end of March at 300-500k. It's already made it to that range in 2 days and will likely surpass it. PS4 doesn't need to dominate in Japan, merely do well enough to be viable ecosystem. We will see how long it takes to transition from the PS4, but the PS3 is not the PSP and the PS4 also isn't the Vita.
And no, the launch sales are not bad. Yakuza actually pulled solid numbers for a side story release in the series and no one expected it to top the PS3 version at launch, anyone who suggested that was being ridiculous. The other western titles look low but really they are all late ports of games that audience would've bought in November/December of last year. People using them to downplay the better than expected results for the PS4 don't know what they're talking about.

Moreover yes, pack-in games do have a negative impact on tie ratios. Knack does count.

You sound like a SONY PR guy.

Anyway, attach rate of less than 0,70 is pretty bad, but then again not surprising consider the lineup. Hopefully there's something announced shortly that will feed to the Japanese audience, otherwise PS4 hardware sales will look dreadful in a couple of months.

 

[ambientmystic]

Egos run so high in Media Create threads. Hilarious.

Anyway, I think a lot of people are forgetting about the upgrade program for some of these games.

It's bloody entertaining though, it's almost like watching a live, weekly televised debate of personalities on a talk show about the aftermath of some cataclysmic event.

The host(s) being the moderators themselves, the speakers being the sales age personalities/regulars, their stances drawn as proverbial lines in the sand, and the studio audience interjecting from the sidelines being the irregular participants in the thread. Lurkers being represented by the audience at home, of course.

Some Sales-Age posters I look forward to every week for incisive, level-headed commentary and spot on analysis include shinra-bansho, Pie and Beans, Aquamarine, and long time MC veteran Chris1964 who seems to enjoy chewing up and spitting out MC newbs who often spout ridiculous predictions that have no basis in the market realities.

You learn a lot by just lurking in these weekly threads, I know I have.

 

[Shmuppers]

Hey, this sounds a bit idiotic, but is the Xbone omitted from this, or has it actually been selling so poorly as to be irrelevant?

 

[Rex_Harrison]

Dat Knack Bunduru

 

[Nirolak]

Hey, this sounds a bit idiotic, but is the Xbone omitted from this, or has it actually been selling so poorly as to be irrelevant?

It's not out in Japan, though it will be selling close to zero when it comes out anyway.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

edit: ^^^^^Mrgrgr!!

Hey, this sounds a bit idiotic, but is the Xbone omitted from this, or has it actually been selling so poorly as to be irrelevant?

It hasn't launched in Japan

 

[Tripon]

edit: ^^^^^Mrgrgr!!



Is hasn't launched in Japan

It's not out in Japan, though it will be selling close to zero when it comes out anyway.

How many tiers is Japan for the XBox One?

 

[Spieler Eins]

Not yet.

Dragon Quest XI (inevitable)
Monster Hunter Ultimate 4
Pokemon Z (inevitable)
Super Smash Bros 3DS
Bravely Second
Persona Q
Professor Layton vs. Phoneix Wright
SMT x FE (it's a possibility for the game to switch platform from the dying Wii U)

New Pikachu IP, Ace Attorney 6.

I'm hoping for a few surprises for this fall in April Direct though...

 

[Chris1964]

It's not out in Japan, though it will be selling close to zero when it comes out anyway.

Wait for amazon.jp to sell out in a few hours first.

 

[Oemenia]

Honestly if I had to guess, the PS4 FFXIV beta is probably what the missing 30% is.

It's one of the most notable games on the platform for the region and one of the only cross-gen games that appeals to Japan that has a really noticeable upgrade with the next-gen version.

We're talking about notably worse visuals at an unstable 30 fps and sub-720p vs. notably improved visuals with an unstable 60 fps and 1080p, and you can also stream it to your Vita, which if you're an MMO player in Japan isn't as unlikely a usecase as normal. It's a big improvement.

Makes sense but do you see MH ever going back to Sony for consoles. Even DQ, a mainline title would do more for the PS4 than for the WiiU, FFXIII single-handedly ressurected the PS3 and made it the number one console in Japan.

 

[Satsunohadouryu]

Wait for amazon.jp to sell out in a few hours first.

I can already see the threads about xbox one selling out in japan because of amazon.

 

[Nirolak]

Makes sense but do you see MH ever going back to Sony for consoles. Even DQ, a mainline title would do more for the PS4 than for the WiiU, FFXIII single-handedly ressurected the PS3 and made it the number one console in Japan.

Well it has to make sense for Capcom or Square instead of make sense for Sony.

There's no real incentive for Capcom or Square to leave 3DS (or whatever the next handheld is) with those series, except perhaps in 5-10 years for Dragon Quest to head over to mobile if the general audience stops buying handhelds and it's reduced entirely to teens and young adults PSP style.

Now if the PS4 started flying off shelves and handhelds stopped selling in the region, sure, but we don't see any real signs of that.

Generally monetary incentives only work when you have a good audience match, otherwise you end up like Namco and damage the Tales brand for years upon years.

 

[Chris1964]

FFXIII single-handedly ressurected the PS3 and made it the number one console in Japan.

No, that was FFVII and PS1.

 

[DaBoss]

Honestly if I had to guess, the PS4 FFXIV beta is probably what the missing 30% is.

It's one of the most notable games on the platform for the region and one of the only cross-gen games that appeals to Japan that has a really noticeable upgrade with the next-gen version.

We're talking about notably worse visuals at an unstable 30 fps and sub-720p vs. notably improved visuals with an unstable 60 fps and 1080p, and you can also stream it to your Vita, which if you're an MMO player in Japan isn't as unlikely a usecase as normal. It's a big improvement.

Yea, and there is some sort of precedence for this with DQX on the Wii U. More people opted to go digitally with the upgrade program.

FFXIII single-handedly ressurected the PS3 and made it the number one console in Japan.

Not really. The price cut with the revision before that helped greatly. And even then, the PS3 didn't outsell any other console in its generation other than the 360 in Japan.

 

[Frillen]

Wait for amazon.jp to sell out in a few hours first.

Lol, this made me chuckle more than it should have.

 

[Palette Swap]

Seeing the current 3DS performance kind of confirms the unease I felt back in January when Iwata barely mentioned it during that session where they were supposed to address their current weaknesses.

I mean, it still outperforms the rest of the console market but it's on a downward trend. I'm growing skeptical of Nintendo's current ability to juggle between 2 products at once and getting appropriate support on both. I have no idea how a third platform fits into that.

 

[Chris1964]

New Pikachu IP, Ace Attorney 6.

I'm hoping for a few surprises for this fall in April Direct though...

This year it will be Smash and Monster Hunter and next Pokemon (and DQXI?).

2015 will be 3DS last big year anyway, we'll have a successor in 2016 the latest.

 

[Metallix87]

This year it will be Smash and Monster Hunter and next Pokemon (and DQXI?).

2015 will be 3DS last big year anyway, we'll have a successor in 2016 the latest.

Yep. Odds are, 2DS hits this year, and maybe a final revision hits at the end of this year or in Q1 2015. As I said, I don't believe Nintendo should be too worried about the system right now, though if 2DS releases and does nothing for sales, they should definitely be a bit more concerned.

 

[Rolf NB]

Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2014 (Feb 17 - Feb 23)

HARDWARE

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  WIU  |      8.407 |      8.782 |      9.633 |    117.665 |    163.719 |   1.643.095 |
|  360  |        241 |        256 |        473 |      2.212 |      6.573 |   1.641.528 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FINALLY!!!!11

 

[Busaiku]

Yeah, if Nintendo keeps 3DS going like this for another 2 years, its successor will definitely face the same hurdle that Wii U is facing now.
It's far more beneficial to launch the successor while the platform is still relevant than to wait until everyone already leaves.

 

[Rolf NB]

What I find interesting is that the PS4 launch apparently did not cannibalize other hardware sales at all. Everything's holding. The 3DS was the only device to drop a bit, but that may well still be the rolloff effect from its recent big releases, and have nothing to do with PS4 either.

edit: though it could be argued that the effect was already built in ever since the release date and price were announced. E.g. PS3 has been down YoY significantly for months now.

 

[Metallix87]

Yeah, if Nintendo keeps 3DS going like this for another 2 years, its successor will definitely face the same hurdle that Wii U is facing now.
It's far more beneficial to launch the successor while the platform is still relevant than to wait until everyone already leaves.

Again, unlike the Wii, the 3DS still has several major titles on the horizon, not the least of which is Pokemon Z and, potentially, Pokemon Gen 7.

 

[Chris1964]

all of this on top of there being probably strong digital sales (on average at least 20%) compared to PS3 launch with zero digital sales.

Honestly the closest you can even compare PS4 to is Vita (good size-to-default-storage ratio, almost 1:1 digital to retail availability, etc) which again, approaches or even beats 20% on many titles.

Still waiting for that 20% clarification, especially in Japan.

 

[iori9999]

Not a bad launch for PS4.. I personally hope the famitsu sales are more accurate.. Also I'm assuming 18k is the baseline for Vita.. Not bad either..

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Btw anyone know how accurate or up to date these figures are for total software sales:

Wii 66,266,911
PS3 56,914,926
GBA 55,617,350
3DS 44,520,323

 

[Busaiku]

Again, unlike the Wii, the 3DS still has several major titles on the horizon, not the least of which is Pokemon Z and, potentially, Pokemon Gen 7.

Wii's downward trend started in 2010, when it still had Super Mario Galaxy 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Kirby's Return to Dreamland, Rhythm Heaven, Mario Party 9, The Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword, Dragon Quest X, and some other stuff.
3DS is falling much faster than Wii did in 2010 (relatively), and Nintendo has to see the writing on the wall and react much quicker and more efficiently this time.

 

[Chris1964]

Wii's downward trend started in 2010, when it still had Super Mario Galaxy 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Kirby's Return to Dreamland, Rhythm Heaven, Mario Party 9, The Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword, Dragon Quest X, and some other stuff.
3DS is falling much faster than Wii did in 2010 (relatively), and Nintendo has to see the writing on the wall and react much quicker and more efficiently this time.

Wii's downward trend started in 2011.

What Wii had for 2011 and 2012 and what 3DS has for 2014 and 2015.

 

[Metallix87]

Wii's downward trend started in 2010, when it still had Super Mario Galaxy 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Kirby's Return to Dreamland, Rhythm Heaven, Mario Party 9, The Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword, Dragon Quest X, and some other stuff.
3DS is falling much faster than Wii did in 2010 (relatively), and Nintendo has to see the writing on the wall and react much quicker and more efficiently this time.

The Wii did not start collapsing until 2011, when releases more or less dried up. 2010 was a solid sales year.

 

[Busaiku]

Well, the only 2 releases I listed from 2010 were Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Donkey Kong Country Returns.
It also had Wii Party, Kirby's Epic Yarn, and Super Mario All Stars for 2010, but otherwise, was a relatively quiet year.

2011 had more solid releases overall, but there was still a significant decline.

 

[Oemenia]

No, that was FFVII and PS1.

Not really. The price cut with the revision before that helped greatly. And even then, the PS3 didn't outsell any other console in its generation other than the 360 in Japan.

Well it did start selling at a rate greater than the Wii and still sells strongly to this day. The Wii hardware and third-party sale have simply dried up but the PS3 keeps on giving.

Well it has to make sense for Capcom or Square instead of make sense for Sony.

There's no real incentive for Capcom or Square to leave 3DS (or whatever the next handheld is) with those series, except perhaps in 5-10 years for Dragon Quest to head over to mobile if the general audience stops buying handhelds and it's reduced entirely to teens and young adults PSP style.

Now if the PS4 started flying off shelves and handhelds stopped selling in the region, sure, but we don't see any real signs of that.

Generally monetary incentives only work when you have a good audience match, otherwise you end up like Namco and damage the Tales brand for years upon years.

True, I dont see DQ being on anything other than the 3DS. With that said though console MH could sell better on the PS4 than the WiiU and as you said would put those Vita to good use too. Correct me if Im wrong but isnt the WiiU MH just an upgraded port of MH3?

I think people way overestimate the significance of Tales being on the 360, at the time MS were promising support and sold pretty solidly in Japan but importantly also worldwide. The PS3 ports of both Graces and Vesperia were even bigger hits but more so because by that point the console was far more successful.

 

[Jamix012]

Still waiting for that 20% clarification, especially in Japan.

I know you're fighting the good fight and all, but is it really worth going up against people who you know truly have not the faintest idea what they're talking about.

 

[DaBoss]

Wii 66,368,392
PS3 61,097,120
GBA 56,384,547
3DS 49,486,580

NDS 177,720,451
Wii U 4,006,444
PSV 5,512,809

https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/

There may be some digital numbers included there.

Now that I figured out I was using the wrong brackets for the filter (lol), I can post the ones not including the Famitsu DL numbers:

3DS 49,004,996
PSV 5,440,773
PS3 60,948,705
Wii U 3,941,029

 

[Nirolak]

True, I dont see DQ being on anything other than the 3DS. With that said though console MH could sell better on the PS4 than the WiiU and as you said would put those Vita to good use too. Correct me if Im wrong but isnt the WiiU MH just an upgraded port of MH3?

I think people way overestimate the significance of Tales being on the 360, at the time MS were promising support and sold pretty solidly in Japan but importantly also worldwide. The PS3 ports of both Graces and Vesperia were even bigger hits but more so because by that point the console was far more successful.

I think the main question is if they actually intend to port any more of the handheld titles to console. MH Tri G was probably an easier port given the game was originally for Wii and the Wii U shares architectural similarities with that. A game built ground up for the 3DS is likely a less straightforward port so if they find the effort versus the cost worth it might be more questionable, especially if they think there's a chance for sales decline given, you know, the Wii U situation, and the opportunity cost of having those people work on something that could sell better. The PS4 I would think is a similar case.

But yes, they did ultimately port Frontier to every platform on earth so it's not like there's zero precedent.

Tales was a depressed franchise for a while so even if they managed to revive it, it still wasn't making good money in the time they were chasing around other platforms and trying to move the fanbase from one platform to the next over and over. That they refuse to do anything but play it really safe now kind of says what their experience with that was.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Wii 66,368,392
PS3 61,097,120
GBA 56,384,547
3DS 49,486,580

NDS 177,720,451
Wii U 4,006,444
PSV 5,512,809

https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/

There may be some digital numbers included there.

Thank you. How did you find the total software sales on that website?

 

[Chris1964]

Wii 66,368,392
PS3 61,097,120
GBA 56,384,547
3DS 49,486,580

NDS 177,720,451
Wii U 4,006,444
PSV 5,512,809

https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/

There may be some digital numbers included there.

No, the numbers are off. I've given totals in the past.

 

[Oregano]

I think the main question is if they actually intend to port any more of the handheld titles to console. MH Tri G was probably an easier port given the game was originally for Wii and the Wii U shares architectural similarities with that. A game built ground up for the 3DS is likely a less straightforward port so if they find the effort versus the cost worth it might be more questionable, especially if they think there's a chance for sales decline given, you know, the Wii U situation, and the opportunity cost of having those people work on something that could sell better. The PS4 I would think is a similar case.

But yes, they did ultimately port Frontier to every platform on earth so it's not like there's zero precedent.

Tales was a depressed franchise for a while so even if they managed to revive it, it still wasn't making good money in the time they were chasing around other platforms and trying to move the fanbase from one platform to the next over and over. That they refuse to do anything but play it really safe now kind of says what their experience with that was.

Frontier was developed by a completely different team/department IIRC and Mon Hun now has online on 3DS so there is less incentive for a port.

 

[DaBoss]

Thank you. How did you find the total software sales on that website?

Download it and use a program that can open Excel spreadsheets. Filter it to show a specific platform and then highlight the LTD column and use AutoSum or whatever it is called.

To filter out digital sales, put "*{DL}*" in the titleEN "does not contain" filter.

No, the numbers are off. I've given totals in the past.

Famitsu numbers?

 

[Nirolak]

Frontier was developed by a completely different team/department IIRC and Mon Hun now has online on 3DS so there is less incentive for a port.

Frontier is also a subscription game so in theory adding low numbers of people could be more lucrative than in a normal circumstance.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

No, the numbers are off. I've given totals in the past.

Do you mind sharing where you get them from?

Download it and use a program that can open Excel spreadsheets. Filter it to show a specific platform and then highlight the LTD column and use AutoSum or whatever it is called.

To filter out digital sales, put "*{DL}*" in the titleEN "does not contain" filter.

I see. Thanks.

 

[Valkyria]

The arrogance of some people in this thread is something that should be frowned upon. You can have the greatest knowledge about a thing, but belittling others opinions no matter how wrong it is, erks me.

 

[Rolf NB]

I think the main question is if they actually intend to port any more of the handheld titles to console. MH Tri G was probably an easier port given the game was originally for Wii and the Wii U shares architectural similarities with that. A game built ground up for the 3DS is likely a less straightforward port so if they find the effort versus the cost worth it might be more questionable, especially if they think there's a chance for sales decline given, you know, the Wii U situation, and the opportunity cost of having those people work on something that could sell better. The PS4 I would think is a similar case.

I won't say it out loud because of the stupid it usually leads to, but there is at least one other platform on the market now that shares the ARM CPU architecture with the 3DS.

 

[mgcastro]

If the PS4 flops in Japan what would it mean for our beloved Japanese publishers like Konami, Capcom, Square Enix, Bamco, and company?

 

[cafemomo]

If the PS4 flops in Japan what would it mean for our beloved Japanese publishers like Konami, Capcom, Square Enix, Bamco, and company?

Nothing.

There is the magical promise land of mobile they can look forward too.

Plus, Konami barely makes any games. They make their dosh from their health centers

 

[Takao]

I think the main question is if they actually intend to port any more of the handheld titles to console. MH Tri G was probably an easier port given the game was originally for Wii and the Wii U shares architectural similarities with that. A game built ground up for the 3DS is likely a less straightforward port so if they find the effort versus the cost worth it might be more questionable, especially if they think there's a chance for sales decline given, you know, the Wii U situation, and the opportunity cost of having those people work on something that could sell better. The PS4 I would think is a similar case.

I think MH4 runs on MT Framework.

 

[Spiegel]

If the PS4 flops in Japan what would it mean for our beloved Japanese publishers like Konami, Capcom, Square Enix, Bamco, and company?

That's the reason why the PS4 won't flop even if it ends having a PSV-like start

WE, Musou, FF, KH, MGS, Tekken, RE, Tales,... aren't going anywhere. They'll go to the PS4.

 

[pretty done]

If the PS4 flops in Japan what would it mean for our beloved Japanese publishers like Konami, Capcom, Square Enix, Bamco, and company?

Japanese gaming dies AKA: