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[Virgin Wii]

Oh God! I don't know what to say!

First I'd like to thank my parents, whose neverending support has carried me through these difficult times of tribulation. Similarly I'd like to express my love and undying support to the Lord Almighty, Jesus Christ as saviour...and...


...hey wait a minute, this trophy is filled with dung!

It'll end up on Ebay. I know it. And you'll say it was "stolen".

To be fair, it was a photo finish. Let's review the footage!

Oh, and it's Amir0x by a hair! Congratulations!

:lol

 

[Amir0x]

It'll end up on Ebay. I know it. And you'll say it was "stolen".

I already have 5 bidders!

 

[Odnetnin]

I already have 5 bidders!

i'm so glad this thread will hightlight to the other gaffer how absolutely FOS you are and that some of us are on to it. and you came off pretty stellar on the mario party6 thread too

:lol

 

[Broshnat]

i'm so glad this thread will hightlight to the other gaffer how absolutely FOS you are and that some of us are on to it. and you came off pretty stellar on the mario party6 thread too

:lol

Lol!

What's all this fun I find this morning

Let's get some numbers down:

Jan 2002 62k
Jan 2003 81k
Jan 2004 134k

but but but, that's a 165% yoy increase from 2003-2004 due to the price cut that occured 4 months earlier! Oh my god, that's unprecidented. Or even a 216% increase on 2002!

I do follow trends yeah. The thing about trends that most people struggle with (and I don't mean to be rude here) is that they are dumb and lack common sense. Trends need to be INTERPRETED. Any mug can just read them off and compare this year to last or whatever. XB sold less this xmas than last, so surely it's a failure isn't it? Halo 2 did nothing. Well no. Because there were other factors in this, so you can't just make a simple comparison like that, it's stupid.

If you wanna make some yoy comparisons:

Oct - Dec 2002 1255k
Oct - Dec 2003 2168k

That's a 173% yoy increase due to the price cut. And don't forget that 2002 wasn't exactly a weak xmas for the GC- Mario Sunshine, Animal Crossing, Starfox, Mario Party 4, Metroid Prime. Probably stronger than 2003 in fact, so this should be taken into account. The price drop ALONE pretty much doubled GC sales. Had there not been a price drop, it would have probably done less than previous year.

And this is consistent during a holiday period. A 200% yoy increase. What makes it so difficult to think that RE4 can boost the cube by similar amounts or more?

If I'm being conservative, I'd say 350k for RE4 in Jan, 250k GCs sold, and RE4 will break 1m on GC in it's lifetime. As it is, I've decided to throw caution into the wind and add 50% to my predictions, simply for the fact that trends are there to be broken. As I said, who in their right mind would have said Halo 2 would do 3.3m in November? The previous record for a single month was GTA:SA on 2.1m and before that VC on 1.5m and these are mega-games in themsleves. A normal "big game" would be doing amazing if it did 600-700k in a first month. It's obvious Halo 2 would be big, but it surpassed all expectations. I could end up with egg on my face, but I'm sticking my neck out and making some bold predictions here.

But as I've said, we will see in just under a month how close I was.

 

[Amir0x]

i'm so glad this thread will hightlight to the other gaffer how absolutely FOS you are and that some of us are on to it. and you came off pretty stellar on the mario party6 thread too

Well if you think I'm FOS you're going to look really silly when everything I say turns out correct. Doubly so when you interpret someone who is "FOS" as someone who has a different opinion than you, as in the MP6 discussion.

Lol!

What's all this fun I find this morning

Let's get some numbers down:

Jan 2002 62k
Jan 2003 81k
Jan 2004 134k

but but but, that's a 165% yoy increase from 2003-2004 due to the price cut that occured 4 months earlier! Oh my god, that's unprecidented. Or even a 216% increase on 2002!

A 116% increase, and it was only 134k.

I do follow trends yeah. The thing about trends that most people struggle with (and I don't mean to be rude here) is that they are dumb and lack common sense. Trends need to be INTERPRETED. Any mug can just read them off and compare this year to last or whatever. XB sold less this xmas than last, so surely it's a failure isn't it? Halo 2 did nothing. Well no. Because there were other factors in this, so you can't just make a simple comparison like that, it's stupid.

Indeed, I have been factoring in other things. For instance, games are probably not going to give something as big an immediate boost as a price drop. Or, for instance, how GC was probably closer to PS2 and Xbox than it would have been in Christmas 04 because of
massive shortages.

If you wanna make some yoy comparisons:

Oct - Dec 2002 1255k
Oct - Dec 2003 2168k

That's a 173% yoy increase due to the price cut. And don't forget that 2002 wasn't exactly a weak xmas for the GC- Mario Sunshine, Animal Crossing, Starfox, Mario Party 4, Metroid Prime. Probably stronger than 2003 in fact, so this should be taken into account. The price drop ALONE pretty much doubled GC sales. Had there not been a price drop, it would have probably done less than previous year.

Again, this is after a price cut. It's not, you'll note, after a big game gets released. In fact you highlight this yourself by saying Christmas 2002 for GC was probably stronger than Christmas 2003 in terms of software, and yet they did better in Christmas 2003 because of the pricedrop. So from this trend we can assume that price drops equal bigger leaps than big software, at least in terms of GC.

And this is consistent during a holiday period. A 200% yoy increase. What makes it so difficult to think that RE4 can boost the cube by similar amounts or more?

Do 400,000? Yeah, it's so difficult for me to think this would happen because it's impossible. This would require a 200%+ yoy increase from Jan 04, without a price drop and with only one high calibur game as motivator instead of many like October 2002. On top of that, Christmas is over and most people who didn't like their Christmas swag have already done their switches and giftcard purchased and returns and all that jazz. The chances that they'd come out again, especially in terms of casuals, solely to play a game - albeit one of the greatest games ever made - to the sound of 400,000 simply isn't an optional thought process for me.

If I'm being conservative, I'd say 350k for RE4 in Jan, 250k GCs sold, and RE4 will break 1m on GC in it's lifetime. As it is, I've decided to throw caution into the wind and add 50% to my predictions, simply for the fact that trends are there to be broken.

Nobody is saying RE4 is going to do poorly. It'll do fantastic just selling over to its already established userbase. I predict similar numbers as you are for RE4. If we're talking RE4 NPD, then by the end of GCs lifetime I can see 800,000+. If you're talking worldwide, I can see well over 2,400,000+.

250,000 is 150,000 less than 400,000, so it sounds like you're trying to gloss over in case you end up wrong here, but that's pointless. 250,000 may or may not be plausible, but I'm predicting 180,000 at most. 200,000 at best case.

As I said, who in their right mind would have said Halo 2 would do 3.3m in November?

I didn't participate because I felt Halo 2 was going to do phenomenal.

But as I've said, we will see in just under a month how close I was.

I hope you're right on the money, because that'd be awesome for Nintendo. I just don't think you will be. But we will see

 

[jarrod]

MGS3 vs RE4? Why bother, DMC3 > both.

 

[Amir0x]

MGS3 vs RE4? Why bother, DMC3 > both.

It has got to be impossible for DMC3 to > RE4.

Unless you have some INSIDER info. You have some insider info ;P

 

[border]

Oct - Dec 2002 1255k
Oct - Dec 2003 2168k

That's a 173% yoy increase due to the price cut.

No, that's a 73% increase.

1255 + (1255 * .73) = ~2168

Jan 2002 62k
Jan 2003 81k
Jan 2004 134k
but but but, that's a 165% yoy increase from 2003-2004 due to the price cut that occured 4 months earlier!

No again.
January 2004 was a 65% increase over January 2003. 81 + (81 * .65) = 134
January 2004 was 116% increase over January 2002. 62 + (62 * 1.16) = 134

Your numbers are always 100 percentage points higher than they should be. I assume this is because you take the 1.xxx that you get as the solution to the division problem to mean 100%, but that's incorrect. Anytime you divide a number by a number that is smaller than it, there will be a whole number in the answer....using this method a move from 50K to 51K would still be a "100% increase"....when that is clearly not the case.

I admittedly fucked up on the original estimate, but doing it correctly, your prediction is for a 198% year-over-year increase. 134 + (134 * 1.98) = 400K. So far that is more than twice as large as any other year-over-year jump that has been noted here.

 

[Odnetnin]

No, that's a 73% increase.

1255 + (1255 * .73) = ~2168


No again.
January 2004 was a 65% increase over January 2003. 81 + (81 * .65) = 134
January 2004 was 116% increase over January 2002. 62 + (62 * 1.16) = 134

Your numbers are always 100 percentage points higher than they should be. I assume this is because you take the 1.xxx that you get as the solution to the division problem to mean 100%, but that's incorrect. Anytime you divide a number by a number that is smaller than it, there will be a whole number in the answer....using this method a move from 50K to 51K would still be a "100% increase"....when that is clearly not the case.

I admittedly fucked up on the original estimate, but doing it correctly, your prediction is for a 198% year-over-year increase. 134 + (134 * 1.98) = 400K. So far that is more than twice as large as any other year-over-year jump that has been noted here.

you're right of course. He is talking about a YOY increase so we'll only find out at the end of the cycle.... and its a prediction. A year? Lots of things can happen.

 

[Broshnat]

No, that's a 73% increase.

1255 + (1255 * .73) = ~2168


No again.
January 2004 was a 65% increase over January 2003. 81 + (81 * .65) = 134
January 2004 was 116% increase over January 2002. 62 + (62 * 1.16) = 134

Your numbers are always 100 percentage points higher than they should be. I assume this is because you take the 1.xxx that you get as the solution to the division problem to mean 100%, but that's incorrect. Anytime you divide a number by a number that is smaller than it, there will be a whole number in the answer....using this method a move from 50K to 51K would still be a "100% increase"....when that is clearly not the case.

I admittedly fucked up on the original estimate, but doing it correctly, your prediction is for a 198% year-over-year increase. 134 + (134 * 1.98) = 400K. So far that is more than twice as large as any other year-over-year jump that has been noted here.

Thanks for the maths lesson. I think you'd find that funny if you new more about me for a number of reasons, but let's just leave it there.

I based my "216% yoy" number on your "300% yoy" increase as you later pointed out.

Haha, that post is quite funny actually, without trying to sound patronising :lol

 

[mashoutposse]

Somebody predicted 400k for the Cube in January?

...Whoa.

 

[MoccaJava]

It's amazing how so many people latch on to little things that people say and decide to constantly argue about them with everyone, so much so that they probably forget what they were originally arguing about.

For example, why were system sales brought up? I recall border bringing them up as some kind of counter-argument, but no one had excessively been talking about system sales, and I don't even recall anyone talking about anything other than how RE4 would sell, yet for some reason border decided to twist it and bring system sales into it.

 

[Duck of Death]

Yah they did a good job with it. I guess the main thing they fixed was the codecs, which are barely in the game now.

Really? That's good to hear. I was with a friend playing the game, and for the first 2 hours it seemed like nothing but Codecs. It's great to know that they are limited througout the rest of the game.

Anyway, as far as the topic goes, I cannot judge between the two as of yet. Having said that, MGS3 better be one HELL of an experience in order to be "better" than RE4. The camera in MGS3 was quite annoying for my friend, so that could be a potential flaw.

 

[Amir0x]

Really? That's good to hear. I was with a friend playing the game, and for the first 2 hours it seemed like nothing but Codecs. It's great to know that they are limited througout the rest of the game.

Anyway, as far as the topic goes, I cannot judge between the two as of yet. Having said that, MGS3 better be one HELL of an experience in order to be "better" than RE4. The camera in MGS3 was quite annoying for my friend, so that could be a potential flaw.

The majority of the codec discussion is set during the

Spoiler

Virtuous Mission, i.e. the opening

as a form of training. As soon as you complete that segment of the game the codec discussion stops almost entirely for the rest of the game, with a few rare exceptions. It's quite nice.