MI, Nevada, & SC Primary Predictions Thread (All this week!)

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C

Cheebs

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We have 3 primaries this week. Two are republican only. One Democrat. They are

Republican:
MI - 1/15
SC - 1/19

Democrat:
Nevada - 1/19 (dems don't do SC yet)


Mine:

MI:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee

SC:
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

Nevada:
1. Hillary (the unions wont be enough for Obama, she'll win)
2. Obama
3. Edwards
 
MI:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee

SC:
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

Nevada:
1. Obama ( My state will come through)
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
 
quadriplegicjon said:
if the other thread is right. he wont even have the unions.
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Members of the union that endorsed Obama were rallying with Hillary when she came to Nevada this week. Not all of the members are following their union leaders. She is doing a better job of campaigning in Nevada than Obama. Obama is more or less relying on unions. He needs to put more effort into Nevada if he wants to win it which is what I'd like to see.
 
Nevada
1. Obama or Hillary
3. Edwards

No clue who is going to win but I think who ever does will barely edge it out.
 
Nevada:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards

Michigan:

Romney
McCain
Huckabee

SC:

Huckabee
Thompson
McCain

Media narrative-Obama strikes back in another caucus state, GOP field remains wide open. Nothing gets resolved until 2/5.
 
Sadly enough I predict a Hillary win in Nevada.

I'm hoping Obama takes South Carolina but at this point I doubt anything will be enough to stop the Clinton machine.
 
yeah, going with the Hillary for Nevada. Or should I say, I'm going with the future Democratic nominee and the road to more American shittiness
 
technically there is a Democrat Primary for Michigan this week. It just means nothing without the delegates and with only 3 people on the ballet
 
Cheebs said:
Members of the union that endorsed Obama were rallying with Hillary when she came to Nevada this week. Not all of the members are following their union leaders. She is doing a better job of campaigning in Nevada than Obama. Obama is more or less relying on unions. He needs to put more effort into Nevada if he wants to win it which is what I'd like to see.
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Isn't that a given? I'm not sure anyone ever thought the endorsement meant all union members would agree. I think there is no doubt that it will be a majority though since it was probably split 50/50 before the endorsement
 
Amir0x said:
yeah, going with the Hillary for Nevada. Or should I say, I'm going with the future Democratic nominee and the road to more American shittiness
Click to expand...

Can't be as bad as Bush.
 
McCain has gone from like 7% to 33%.

This is scary. McCain would be a formidable candidate if he won the nomination. He is really gaining momentum.
 
I actually think McCain wouldn't be that formidable in a national election if the Democrats hit as hard as the Rove-led Bush campaign did in 04 against Kerry... it would be very, very easy to put the same "flip flopper" label on McCain and have it stick based upon his history in the past 8 years or so. At least I'd hope that would happen, since while he isn't the worst candidate out there (IMO that's Romney) he's also not what I would consider the best or most reliable.

it's really sad that a guy who's all talk (Obama) is my favorite because he seems the least corrupt/retarded/old-school politician of all the candidates out there. However, I do at least enjoy Huckabee's success simply for the hilarious idea that Stephen Colbert could turn a nobody into a frontrunner.
 
grandjedi6 said:
technically there is a Democrat Primary for Michigan this week. It just means nothing without the delegates and with only 3 people on the ballet
Click to expand...

Don't forget the 4th "Uncommitted" candidate!
 
Diablos said:
McCain has gone from like 7% to 33%.

This is scary. McCain would be a formidable candidate if he won the nomination. He is really gaining momentum.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't worry about McCain so long as the dems are smart enough to vote for as likable, magnetic a candidate as Obama. I couldn't see McCain besting him in the general. But he sure as hell could beat Clinton in a variety of scenarios.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Hillary killing Obama in California
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7880.html

He could lose California and NY on Super Tuesday, which seems pretty damn likely to me. Even if he wins SC and Nevada, I don't think that's enough momentum to win those big states
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If he loses both CA and NY he loses super tuesday. End of story. Their HUUUUGE delegate amount can almost assure a nominee.

But I think at this point even the most ardent Obama fans agree Hillary is likely to be the nominee.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Hillary killing Obama in California
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7880.html

He could lose California and NY on Super Tuesday, which seems pretty damn likely to me. Even if he wins SC and Nevada, I don't think that's enough momentum to win those big states
Click to expand...

Yeah, but Obama surged 15% in the national polls just before Iowa and through New Hampshire. If he cleans house or if a game changer occurs, he could make it up in either of the states.
 
Newest Nevada Poll

Obama 32
Clinton 30
Edwards 27

with a 5% margin of victory so its a statistical tie.
 
Juice said:
Yeah, but Obama surged 15% in the national polls just before Iowa and through New Hampshire. If he cleans house or if a game changer occurs, he could make it up in either of the states.
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he surged in NH too and that didnt help. Hillary is kicking his ass, sad but the truth right now in the super tuesday states.
 
Cheebs said:
he surged in NH too and that didnt help. Hillary is kicking his ass, sad but the truth right now in the super tuesday states.
Click to expand...

It did help... the delegate count in New Hampshire was a 9-9 tie.
 
thefro said:
It did help... the delegate count in New Hampshire was a 9-9 tie.
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that does not matter in terms of helping him nationally. Early primaries are all about media attention which drives the further states. The media narrative was a clinton comeback.
 
Cheebs said:
that does not matter in terms of helping him nationally. Early primaries are all about media attention which drives the further states. The media narrative was a clinton comeback.
Click to expand...

Pretty much

Like I said I see him winning SC, but Nevada is a total tossup. Hell Roberts could win it. Either way he'd be going into Super Tuesday at a disadvantage.

He should have let the MLK thing fester, and just not comment on it - hoping to cause a rift that could ensure the black vote throughout Super Tuesday
 
PhoenixDark said:
Pretty much

Like I said I see him winning SC, but Nevada is a total tossup. Hell Roberts could win it. Either way he'd be going into Super Tuesday at a disadvantage.

He should have let the MLK thing fester, and just not comment on it - hoping to cause a rift that could ensure the black vote throughout Super Tuesday
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the black vote wont help him in Cali or NY. And he needs at least 1 of those if not both to win super tuesday and the nomination.
 
I predict more blatant ass-kissing cold calls and borderline-immoral and underhanded attack ads smothering me daily. *goes and hibernates until its over*
 
PhoenixDark said:
Hillary killing Obama in California
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7880.html

He could lose California and NY on Super Tuesday, which seems pretty damn likely to me. Even if he wins SC and Nevada, I don't think that's enough momentum to win those big states
Click to expand...
Cheebs said:
If he loses both CA and NY he loses super tuesday. End of story. Their HUUUUGE delegate amount can almost assure a nominee.

But I think at this point even the most ardent Obama fans agree Hillary is likely to be the nominee.
Click to expand...

Super Tuesday polls mean shit until after SC. The primaries, especially the Democratic, are based entirely on momentum. Whoever enters Super Tuesday with the greatest momentum, whether Hillary or Obama, will sweep the all the Super Tuesday states. That's how it works every time, voters will bail out and side with whoever is ahead.
 
Diablos said:
This is scary. McCain would be a formidable candidate if he won the nomination. He is really gaining momentum.
Click to expand...

That's what I've been saying. Hillary Clinton is probably the most polarizing candidate out there. If Hillary wins the Democrat nomination and comes up against McCain, she will lose an election that should be a gimme to the Democrats. Obama and Edwards have a pull that goes past party constraints, but Hillary does not have that. In fact she drives a ton of Democrats away, and Republicans will most certainly not vote for her. I'm a big Obama supporter, and I respect Hillary Clinton, but I really don't think that she's the best choice. For the good of the nation or for the Democratic party.
 
I seriously don't know how I should vote today since Michigan has no dem delegates. Since I live on a college campus, I see Ron Paul signs all over the place. Someone even e-mailed a lot of students. the best part is that the email address was 'ronpaulforemperor@something"

Right now I'm leaning towards McCain, but I likely would not vote for him in a general election
 
JCX9 said:
I seriously don't know how I should vote today since Michigan has no dem delegates. Since I live on a college campus, I see Ron Paul signs all over the place. Someone even e-mailed a lot of students. the best part is that the email address was 'ronpaulforemperor@something"

Right now I'm leaning towards McCain, but I likely would not vote for him in a general election
Click to expand...

I can't decide between Huckabee or Romney; I don't support any of the republicans but what's the point of voting in the dem primary. Kos is telling people to vote for Romney, hoping he'd win in order to throw the race into disarray. But a Huckabee upset would be even more hilarious for me lol.
 
PhoenixDark said:
I can't decide between Huckabee or Romney; I don't support any of the republicans but what's the point of voting in the dem primary. Kos is telling people to vote for Romney, hoping he'd win in order to throw the race into disarray. But a Huckabee upset would be even more hilarious for me lol.
Click to expand...

I might vote for Huckabee, but I don't think I want him to get the nomination. I really don't want Romney to get it though, specially since he has higher expectations since his dad was governor here. To me, Romney comes off just as cold and calculated as Hilary.
 
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