Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Okay okay.

Time to put Jim on trial for allowing PlayStation to become market leader engage in practices that every company does. Such as marketing deals or exclusivity deals. Then also put them on trial for acquiring a huge multiplatform publisher known as Bungie.

/S

I don't know why people keep bringing up marketing deals and exclusivity agreements. They have nothing to do with this and it isn't illegal for any company to do that. Now acquisitions can become illegal if they hurt competition. Which is what regulation is studying here. Sony are not being looked at by them since they are not the ones buying ABK. If Sony were to do the same I'm pretty sure they would be going through this or worse.

Exactly. When some people bring up Sony's exclusivity deals, they act like Sony's doing what Nintendo did in the '80s. Sony aren't preventing 3P devs/pubs from working with Microsoft or Nintendo, they aren't forcing them to only release games on PlayStation. And AFAIK, they aren't preventing 3P devs/pubs from entertaining offers from Microsoft or Nintendo for marketing rights.

The only thing that would potentially get Sony in trouble is if they were locking 3P publishers out from accepting bids offered by Microsoft for 3P marketing deals & exclusivity. And by that I mean, it'd literally have to be Sony getting an offer by a 3P developer/publisher, who were otherwise considering making an offer to multiple parties, and then Sony came in with some placeholder offer but tied the 3P into not considering offers from Microsoft while waiting to finalize a placeholder offer.

To make a comparison in terms of the ABK acquisition, it'd be like if ABK came to Microsoft with an offer to be bought, then Microsoft puts in a placeholder but also tells ABK they can't shop around with other potential buyers until they (Microsoft) give a final decision on the offer ABK presented to them.

Something which Microsoft obviously didn't do, because it'd be illegal (and if they didn't do that, why would Sony do the equivalent with 3P deals?).

So something like SFV would not qualify there, as I'm pretty sure Capcom made that game's status known to multiple platform holders, but Sony providing a better offer (co-funding and marketing in exchange for console exclusivity) is not something where they (Sony) would have made Microsoft unable to provide a similar or better offer. Microsoft just simply didn't care to make a counteroffer. They chose not to compete in that instance, just like how Sony chose not to compete for a better offer to Dead Rising 3, which is why Microsoft got that as a console exclusive.

Another thing that'd be exempt from this is, say, Sony signing a multi-year and/or multi-game deal with a 3P. Because ultimately it is the choice of the 3P as to what items are in the deal; if a platform holder like Sony sweetens the pot to throw some extra stuff on top, that is simply in addition to a base offer which was already accepted and of which Sony would not have prevented another company (i.e Microsoft) from being able to outbid them on. So offering more to make the deal even more enticing for the winning bidder is ultimately to the 3P's benefit just as much as it is to the platform holder's. It's a mutually beneficial relationship and the 3P still operates as an independent entity.

Since I doubt Sony are locking Microsoft out from even being able to bid on 3P exclusivity deals that otherwise would have been presented by the 3P developer or publisher initially to multiple platform holders (aka Sony isn't tampering with the process of offer on a 3P product that is intended for multiple platforms), let alone preventing 3P from releasing games on Xbox platforms altogether, then arguments using that to claim they're being anti-competitive don't hold up.

Any instance where it's a 3P dev or pub specifically approaching Sony for a possible co-development/co-funding or co-marketing deal, or where multiple games or multiple years of rights are decided on at a time, or where Sony may themselves offer co-funding & co-marketing support in exchange for marketing &/or exclusivity rights on top of a known release or group of releases, are not anti-competitive. Microsoft could have done the same and in fact not only have, but continue to, and that's perfectly fine. At the end of the day, all of those deals still have a clear separation between the 3P entity and the platform holder, the former retains independence in terms of their corporate structure, and both sides see some mutual benefit.

There might be some parallels between that and a vertical M&A, but the difference is that a 3P developer (and especially publisher) still has to act within the best interest of their own business in terms of revenue, and the platform holder isn't going to go for deals that make no financial sense on their end. Sony could want GTA6 as a PS5 console exclusive or even launch exclusive (as in full launch exclusive i.e no Xbox & no PC) all they want, but they're not going to pay the (probably) $500 million or even $1 billion to make that happen and Take-Two aren't going to take that for the potential billions being left on the table by excluding Xbox and PC for even a month, let alone three. Since Sony doesn't have any corporate power over the publisher, developer, or IP, they can't just "force" that scenario into happening even if they by all accounts would want to.

OTOH, if Sony suddenly owned Take-Two, Rockstar and GTA? Yes, they very much could do that, even if there were initial upfront losses, because they'd know the insane amount of demand (and revenue) a move like making GTA6 exclusive to PS5 would do for the brand. And so would regulators, which is why they'd never allow that type of acquisition, at least not without a structural remedy involving divestiture of GTA, the same way regulators are pushing for MS to divest COD/Activision (and the associated studios) as a structural remedy, if they want the deal to be passed at all.

There's a massive scale of difference, from the money involved, to natural checks & balances, to the degree of leveraging the content against rivals, between exclusivity & marketing deals and acquisitions. Even if there are otherwise some similarities between the two. People who say otherwise are either trolling, disingenuous, or ignorant.
 

splattered

Member
The focus on cod is really odd to me. It's the easiest to latch on to. But the arguments seem to be that it's fine that 99% of Activision/Blizzard titles which were once multiplat will be Xbox exclusive, except for this one franchise, COD. A 10 year COD deal doesn't resolve the issue that it's degrading the scope of products available to console gamers.

Buy an Xbox. I bought a PS5 for the newer exclusives. It's really not that hard or that big of a deal. Own more than one system, play whatever games you want wherever they are. Easy peasy.
 

pasterpl

Member
Marketshare advantage, as in "I have 2x more consoles out there than Ms, you would have more sales by having your game associated with Playstation than with Xbox, so I'll do marketing of your game and give some funding to alleviate the pressure on your wallet, if you "focus the development effort on the ps5 version first"".

Nothing illegal in deals like this, immoral maybe.
Yeah, that wouldn’t be illegal to some point, eg;
Deal succeeds: Sony becomes HYPER aggressive with marketing, marketing deals, exclusive content and timed exclusivity deals, so much that Xbox players can add 6 months by default to release dates because Sony is going to use the marketshare advantage to moneyhat timed exclusivity for every single big 3rd party game possible.


Also, have you though what MS will do with 69bn usd that it has for this deal (all cash), that I was ‘“given” to Xbox department? Some crazy deals ideas with this sort of money;

Purely hypothetical list;

Next GTA 1-2 Year exclusive- 2-3bn usd - 5 exclusive years - 5 bn
COD full exclusive next 10 years - 10-15bn usd
All embracer group games for the next 5 years - 2-3bn
All Ubisoft games 5 years - 2-5bn

Still lots of money left to get even more.
 

DrFigs

Member
Buy an Xbox. I bought a PS5 for the newer exclusives. It's really not that hard or that big of a deal. Own more than one system, play whatever games you want wherever they are. Easy peasy.
Do you think what you said here is also a compelling argument for why Microsoft should be able to buy all of Activision and Blizzard? Seems the regulators don't agree. I'm trying to figure out if the only difference is just that COD is a big game.
 
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Ar¢tos

Member
Yeah, that wouldn’t be illegal to some point, eg;



Also, have you though what MS will do with 69bn usd that it has for this deal (all cash), that I was ‘“given” to Xbox department? Some crazy deals ideas with this sort of money;

Purely hypothetical list;

Next GTA 1-2 Year exclusive- 2-3bn usd - 5 exclusive years - 5 bn
COD full exclusive next 10 years - 10-15bn usd
All embracer group games for the next 5 years - 2-3bn
All Ubisoft games 5 years - 2-5bn

Still lots of money left to get even more.
The price of those deals is dependent on install base, so they cost more to MS than to Sony, take that into consideration (would just mean more selective deals).
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Also, have you though what MS will do with 69bn usd that it has for this deal (all cash), that I was ‘“given” to Xbox department? Some crazy deals ideas with this sort of money;

Purely hypothetical list;

Next GTA 1-2 Year exclusive- 2-3bn usd - 5 exclusive years - 5 bn
COD full exclusive next 10 years - 10-15bn usd
All embracer group games for the next 5 years - 2-3bn
All Ubisoft games 5 years - 2-5bn

Still lots of money left to get even more.
They will pay $3 billion to Activision as penalty, and the rest of the $66 billion will go back to other divisions.

They never "gave" that money to Xbox. It's not Xbox purchasing Activision; it's Microsoft purchasing Activision Blizzard King, with aims to increase presence in mobile and a foundation for the metaverse. COD and other AB games are just nice bonuses on top of it.

With ever-decreasing market share and console sales, I doubt Microsoft will spend any serious amount on an Xbox-only thing in the near future.
 

splattered

Member
Do you think what you said here is also a compelling argument for why Microsoft should be able to buy all of Activision and Blizzard? Seems the regulators don't agree. I'm trying to figure out if the only difference is just that COD is a big game.

No, they should be able to buy Activision Blizzard because they have money and Activision wanted them to. If it were reverse and Sony had the money i wouldn't care. It isn't "harming" anyone because you can go out and buy whatever console or PC you want to play whatever games wherever you want. The only ones being "hurt" here are those that refuse to buy a different gaming machine than they rally behind because reasons.
 

Varteras

Member
There's a massive scale of difference, from the money involved, to natural checks & balances, to the degree of leveraging the content against rivals, between exclusivity & marketing deals and acquisitions. Even if there are otherwise some similarities between the two. People who say otherwise are either trolling, disingenuous, or ignorant.

This right here. Probably more than anything else. At the end of the day it is not really so much acquisitions or exclusivity that is the problem. Otherwise Zenimax and Bungie would have been big deals that regulators came down on and other companies complained about. That clearly didn't happen. We're talking about Activision Blizzard. A company with almost 10,000 employees. The largest third-party publisher of games in North America and the largest globally in the console space while being one of the largest in mobile. The most commercially successful franchise with Call of Duty that represents a significant amount of revenue for any platform it is on. Other large franchises like Warcraft, Overwatch, and Diablo. This attempted $70 billion acquisition absolutely dwarfs anything else being done. Sony securing some Final Fantasy titles as PlayStation exclusives for some unrevealed period of time and keeping them from Xbox, a platform the franchise performs significantly worse on anyway, is not on the radar for regulators for all those reasons.
 

gothmog

Gold Member
No, they should be able to buy Activision Blizzard because they have money and Activision wanted them to. If it were reverse and Sony had the money i wouldn't care. It isn't "harming" anyone because you can go out and buy whatever console or PC you want to play whatever games wherever you want. The only ones being "hurt" here are those that refuse to buy a different gaming machine than they rally behind because reasons.
You don't think forcing someone to buy a competing product isn't an issue? I think the line is the difference between compelling people with a competitive offering and forcing them because you bought everything and made it exclusive to your platform

People complain about a $10 bump in game prices and you are expecting people to drop another $500 on another system? I mean I feel it's worth having all the systems because I'm a gaming enthusiast, but my friends barely have room for a single console. A large amount of people consider COD a yearly holiday like event. Forcing them to buy am Xbox to play the yearly COD is about as anti consumer as you can get.
 
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Nothing1234

Banned
Yeah, that wouldn’t be illegal to some point, eg;



Also, have you though what MS will do with 69bn usd that it has for this deal (all cash), that I was ‘“given” to Xbox department? Some crazy deals ideas with this sort of money;

Purely hypothetical list;

Next GTA 1-2 Year exclusive- 2-3bn usd - 5 exclusive years - 5 bn
COD full exclusive next 10 years - 10-15bn usd
All embracer group games for the next 5 years - 2-3bn
All Ubisoft games 5 years - 2-5bn


Still lots of money left to get even more.
This is why you are posting on NeoGAF and not making financial decisions at Xbox/Microsoft.
 

splattered

Member
You don't think forcing someone to buy a competing product isn't an issue? I think the line is the difference between compelling people with a competitive offering and forcing them because you bought everything and made it exclusive to your platform

People complain about a $10 bump in game prices and you are expecting people to drop another $500 on another system? I mean I feel it's worth having all the systems because I'm a gaming enthusiast, but my friends barely have room for a single console. A large amount of people consider COD a yearly holiday like event. Forcing them to buy am Xbox to play the yearly COD is about as anti consumer as you can get.

Right and i'm sure you'll be first in line pitchfork ready when Sony announces that Bungie's next IP is Playstation exclusive? Be it Destiny 3 or whatever. No, Destiny isn't in the same ballpark revenue-wise as COD but Sony could have just as well created their own live service FPS. If you believe Sony bought Bungie for their live service experience i have a bridge to sell you...
 
I think they would still care about Activision even if CoD was not as popular. CoD became really good ammo.

Even smaller titles separate the console experience though. Look at Hi-Fi Rush recently. Something on the XB ecosystem that Playstation does not have. I guess XB sort of muddies it up a bit with day one PC, so in that regard, it is less important for PS players with a PC. Really. I was just trying to answer @ShadyAcshuns question about why people bring up console exclusives vs thrid-party. I suppose that answer wasn't good enough. 🤷‍♂️

Without COD the deal would probably have been much cheaper. Question is will Microsoft want ABK without COD?
 
The focus on cod is really odd to me. It's the easiest to latch on to. But the arguments seem to be that it's fine that 99% of Activision/Blizzard titles which were once multiplat will be Xbox exclusive, except for this one franchise, COD. A 10 year COD deal doesn't resolve the issue that it's degrading the scope of products available to console gamers.
Well, thats because ATVI is really only two different types of output: what Blizzard produces, which will remain multiplatform based on what we're seeing come out from this deal, and CoD.

ATVI occasionally will make attempts like the THPS 1+2 remake from a few years ago, or Crash 4, but by and large, Activision as an entity is really only in the business of CoD right now, and even if this deal were to go through without a single concession in place, that is likely exactly how CoD would remain, although given the nature of where the deal is currently headed, it seems CoD and probably most of Blizzard remains multiplatform.

Seems highly doubtful a 10 year deal is going to be enough to get this remedy through.
 

Varteras

Member
I love reading Microsoft revenge fantasy stories and what they'd do with the Microsoft warchest by Xbox fans here and Resetera. You guys are hilarious lmao. 😆😆😆😆😆

It gets especially entertaining because you know in their minds they are picturing themselves as some kind of Xbox general on the battlefield who was just given 70 billion men to crush their mortal enemy for daring to embarrass them. I mean, you know damn well Jez Cordon wakes up in the middle of the night screaming "FOR LORD PHIL"!
 

Hendrick's

If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
Without COD the deal would probably have been much cheaper. Question is will Microsoft want ABK without COD?
If they could find a buyer that would pay a premium, divestment may be possible. That's a big if. Chances of them taking the deal without CoD are very slim.
 

splattered

Member
I love reading Microsoft revenge fantasy stories and what they'd do with the Microsoft warchest by Xbox fans here and Resetera. You guys are hilarious lmao. 😆😆😆😆😆

Yeah just goofy in both directions. I want MS to complete the Acti/Blizz transaction and then i want Sony to go after Square Enix and some others. I wanna see more shakeup in the industry. Dirty secrects revealed. Angry acquired dev team members splintering off and creating NEW dev companies making amazing games. Etc etc. Everyone seems to just want things to say the same... don't understand why personally. This shit is exciting and interesting IMO.
 

Nothing1234

Banned
Yeah just goofy in both directions. I want MS to complete the Acti/Blizz transaction and then i want Sony to go after Square Enix and some others. I wanna see more shakeup in the industry. Dirty secrects revealed. Angry acquired dev team members splintering off and creating NEW dev companies making amazing games. Etc etc. Everyone seems to just want things to say the same... don't understand why personally. This shit is exciting and interesting IMO.
That is not good for the industry IMO.
 

gothmog

Gold Member
Right and i'm sure you'll be first in line pitchfork ready when Sony announces that Bungie's next IP is Playstation exclusive? Be it Destiny 3 or whatever. No, Destiny isn't in the same ballpark revenue-wise as COD but Sony could have just as well created their own live service FPS. If you believe Sony bought Bungie for their live service experience i have a bridge to sell you...
Depends on the IP. If Destiny 3 is exclusive I would be upset. If it's one of these live service games they're talking about making it depends on what it's doing. Nobody is arguing that all games should be on all platforms. COD has had decades of muti-platform availability and nobody trusts Microsoft. I wouldn't necessarily trust Sony either if they acquired COD.

Your whole response reads like projection, btw.
 

splattered

Member
If they could find a buyer that would pay a premium, divestment may be possible. That's a big if. Chances of them taking the deal without CoD are very slim.

I dont even understand how divestments work... would COD/Devs get splintered off and sold to another buyer (Not Sony - that would create a monopoly and foreclosure of Xbox :p ) and then Activision gets the money from the sale? Or Microsoft gets the money from the sale because they bought all of Acti/Blizz before the divesture? Etc etc
 
Yeah, that wouldn’t be illegal to some point, eg;



Also, have you though what MS will do with 69bn usd that it has for this deal (all cash), that I was ‘“given” to Xbox department? Some crazy deals ideas with this sort of money;

Purely hypothetical list;

Next GTA 1-2 Year exclusive- 2-3bn usd - 5 exclusive years - 5 bn
COD full exclusive next 10 years - 10-15bn usd
All embracer group games for the next 5 years - 2-3bn
All Ubisoft games 5 years - 2-5bn

Still lots of money left to get even more.
MS is not going to take any money they didn't spend here and put it into these one time fantasy deals you're listing here. Thats not how financial decisions at publishers are made.

Microsoft never had the intention to put *this much money* into any one acquisition in the gaming space. ATVI & CoD, T2 & GTA: these are *exceptions*. Note that the folks interested in making the ATVI (Facebook/Google/Amazon) deal were folks that had large sums of money from outside of gaming - thats how big these IPs are and how they can drive all sorts of vertical integrations. That is worth the astronomical price tags these two juggernauts are worth.

After this entire debacle, Microsoft's interest in potentially doing things that drag them into courts is going to go right down to 0. Their entire corporate focus is going to shift to AI and quickly. Gaming is gonna get left behind, and why shouldn't it for them: its been a big loss-leading initiative so far. Lots of money burned with almost nothing to show for it, and its been nearly 5 years of them trying to rebound.

There are loads of ways that they'll always make money and be involved in gaming - their appetite for doing this whole back and forth thing, just to sell consoles, is basically done at this point.
 
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splattered

Member
Depends on the IP. If Destiny 3 is exclusive I would be upset. If it's one of these live service games they're talking about making it depends on what it's doing. Nobody is arguing that all games should be on all platforms. COD has had decades of muti-platform availability and nobody trusts Microsoft. I wouldn't necessarily trust Sony either if they acquired COD.

Your whole response reads like projection, btw.

But Destiny has a decade of history being on multiple platforms, anyone that wants to play their next game would buy the game wherever they need to. How is it any different? Who cares if COD has been on multiple platforms longer... a decade is still a long time and has potential buyer behavior persuasion behind it. That's why i have Series X, PS5, Switch. Bases covered.
 
I dont even understand how divestments work... would COD/Devs get splintered off and sold to another buyer (Not Sony - that would create a monopoly and foreclosure of Xbox :p ) and then Activision gets the money from the sale? Or Microsoft gets the money from the sale because they bought all of Acti/Blizz before the divesture? Etc etc
When a company decides to divest during an M&A process, there are two primary ways to divest: you either spin off the portions that need to be divested into a new holding company, with the value of the sale attributed to those assets placed into said holding company, with an agreement in place where the buying entity (microsoft in this case) cannot hold any form of a stake in the new holding company for either a fixed amount of time or in perpetuity.

The other solution for divestment is that you find another company who is not a primary player in the market to come in and purchase it from you. So in a case like this, we're saying the value of CoD is probably around $30b, so for that amount of money you would need to find someone like Apple/Google/Amazon/Facebook/Netflix, who has some interest in gaming but whose market positions don't place them in the same position Microsoft is currently in, and then they have to agree to purchase the asset(s) from you.

Regardless of the route they go with, Microsoft has to present the full solution with details to the regulators and sign contracts ahead of time making it all official. So in the event of, say, Google agreeing to buy CoD, the contract has to be in place when presented to the regulators for consideration. If its a holding company, it has to already have begun taking ship. The actual action of divestment will occur *after* the acquisition has been finalized/made/paid for. So in the case of having a buyer come in and buy it, that means MS has to find a buyer and get them to agree to the purchase before the March deadline for remedial submission to the CMA.
 

splattered

Member
MS is not going to take any money they didn't spend here and put it into these one time fantasy deals you're listing here. Thats not how financial decisions at publishers are made.

Microsoft never had the intention to put *this much money* into any one acquisition in the gaming space. ATVI & CoD, T2 & GTA: these are *exceptions*. Note that the folks interested in making the ATVI deal were folks that had large sums of money from outside of gaming - thats how big these IPs are and how they can drive all sorts of vertical integrations. That is worth the astronomical price tags these two juggernauts are worth.

After this entire debacle, Microsoft's interest in potentially doing things that drag them into courts is going to go right down to 0. Their entire corporate focus is going to shift to AI and quickly. Gaming is gonna get left behind, and why shouldn't it for them: its been a big loss-leading initiative so far. Lots of money burned with almost nothing to show for it, and its been nearly 5 years of them trying to rebound.

There are loads of ways that they'll always make money and be involved in gaming - their appetite for doing this whole back and forth thing, just to sell consoles, is basically done at this point.

Damn i should probably just go ahead and sell my Xboxes at this point then... game over. SneakerS..ony won.
 
Damn i should probably just go ahead and sell my Xboxes at this point then... game over. SneakerS..ony won.
LOL I mean, thats not what I said at all. Nor do I doubt there will ever be a situation where MS isn't producing something called an Xbox for some semblance of an audience, a la the Surface line.

That being said, there are a myriad of market realities they are facing for them to continue competing, and their current set of business plans to grow the Xbox business is running into what will ultimately become their growth ceiling, if they can't get this deal on the terms they want.

Does that mean that MS will stop producing games? Absolutely not. Does Game Pass go away? Not as long as folks are paying for, much like XBLG. Xbox has already been a largely evolving business, with more and more of their moves placing them closer to what is traditionally considered a 3rd party publisher. They are probably going to just complete this transition and let it keep bolstering their vertical integrations with Azure, which bolsters their Cloud Suite business, a business which actually makes MS truck loads of money, where as Xbox hasn't.

I don't understand why so many folks get defensive at the thought of Microsoft, who has been ever-increasingly been acting and making their revenue in gaming by acting as a 3rd party publishing group, going even further in that direction. Spencer has specifically stated he has reached out to have GP put on PS/Nintendo/Steam, with all of the software output that comes with it. Heck, Steam and their publishing plan for day 1 steam releases has directly cannibalized the console-selling power of all of their output. So why should MS stop just at Steam - this was always going to end with them putting their software on any device that can run it and whose parent companies are willing to integrate with MS. Thats literally how all of MS' profitable divisions operate, and that has been the plan for Xbox since 2018.
 
MS is not going to take any money they didn't spend here and put it into these one time fantasy deals you're listing here. Thats not how financial decisions at publishers are made.

Microsoft never had the intention to put *this much money* into any one acquisition in the gaming space. ATVI & CoD, T2 & GTA: these are *exceptions*. Note that the folks interested in making the ATVI deal were folks that had large sums of money from outside of gaming - thats how big these IPs are and how they can drive all sorts of vertical integrations. That is worth the astronomical price tags these two juggernauts are worth.

After this entire debacle, Microsoft's interest in potentially doing things that drag them into courts is going to go right down to 0. Their entire corporate focus is going to shift to AI and quickly. Gaming is gonna get left behind, and why shouldn't it for them: its been a big loss-leading initiative so far. Lots of money burned with almost nothing to show for it, and its been nearly 5 years of them trying to rebound.

There are loads of ways that they'll always make money and be involved in gaming - their appetite for doing this whole back and forth thing, just to sell consoles, is basically done at this point.

If this is the case, then as a PlayStation fan and owner of all consoles, this is kinda depressing.
 
If they could find a buyer that would pay a premium, divestment may be possible. That's a big if. Chances of them taking the deal without CoD are very slim.

I know they said the focus wasn't COD but I believe they really want it. Its a powerful franchise and would certainly push subscriptions and bring people to their consoles. Even more if its exclusive and they are willing to take the hit. They can certainly afford to something that ABK can't at the moment. Makes sense why regulators are focusing on it.
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
Yeah, that wouldn’t be illegal to some point, eg;



Also, have you though what MS will do with 69bn usd that it has for this deal (all cash), that I was ‘“given” to Xbox department? Some crazy deals ideas with this sort of money;

Purely hypothetical list;

Next GTA 1-2 Year exclusive- 2-3bn usd - 5 exclusive years - 5 bn
COD full exclusive next 10 years - 10-15bn usd
All embracer group games for the next 5 years - 2-3bn
All Ubisoft games 5 years - 2-5bn

Still lots of money left to get even more.

So you want Microsoft to lose money on time-exclusive deals just to get back at Sony? They'll make the $69b back and more with the acquisition, this is something fans want to happen as revenge and it's not likely to happen.
 

Varteras

Member
MS is not going to take any money they didn't spend here and put it into these one time fantasy deals you're listing here. Thats not how financial decisions at publishers are made.

Microsoft never had the intention to put *this much money* into any one acquisition in the gaming space. ATVI & CoD, T2 & GTA: these are *exceptions*. Note that the folks interested in making the ATVI deal were folks that had large sums of money from outside of gaming - thats how big these IPs are and how they can drive all sorts of vertical integrations. That is worth the astronomical price tags these two juggernauts are worth.

After this entire debacle, Microsoft's interest in potentially doing things that drag them into courts is going to go right down to 0. Their entire corporate focus is going to shift to AI and quickly. Gaming is gonna get left behind, and why shouldn't it for them: its been a big loss-leading initiative so far. Lots of money burned with almost nothing to show for it, and its been nearly 5 years of them trying to rebound.

There are loads of ways that they'll always make money and be involved in gaming - their appetite for doing this whole back and forth thing, just to sell consoles, is basically done at this point.

I don't think people truly understand that even for a company like Microsoft, spending $70 billion is not some drop in the bucket for them. That's still a fuck ton of money that even Microsoft surely gagged at the thought of.

They attempted to make this purchase because it was a unique opportunity that fell in their lap to make a huge impact for their Xbox brand, which has struggled for 20 years to achieve its goals. It really did represent the only chance they had to make a sudden huge gain in the market the likes of which they could not hope to accomplish any other way.

Without this deal as they tried to secure it, they'll be right back to the very slow grind and the company at large is not going to be so eager to blow that kind of cash on a bunch of smaller possibilities that almost certainly won't collectively have the same impact as owning ABK. Certainly not when other companies are willing to fight you on a bunch of little, more easily digestible bidding wars.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
After this entire debacle, Microsoft's interest in potentially doing things that drag them into courts is going to go right down to 0. Their entire corporate focus is going to shift to AI and quickly. Gaming is gonna get left behind, and why shouldn't it for them: its been a big loss-leading initiative so far. Lots of money burned with almost nothing to show for it, and its been nearly 5 years of them trying to rebound.

Seriously this whole idea that MS gave Xbox 69B is hilarious and anybody who says shit like that just shows how clueless they are. The fantasies about what Xbox will do with the money because apparently it will be sitting in a suitcase waiting to get spent are incredible.
 
If this is the case, then as a PlayStation fan and owner of all consoles, this is kinda depressing.
Yeah, I really don't get why it can be viewed as depressing in any meaningful way. You're saying that MS, an entity that has tried to compete in the console-led gaming sector for 20+ years, who has repeatedly and famously taken loads of losses, whose sales have not increased in any material way since 2010, and whose only real markets are both the US & UK, should continue to burn through the fucking truck tons of cash it already has? For what?

And i'm not even saying they are going to get out of gaming - i've repeatedly said in this very thread that MS will likely just begin largely operating as a 3rd party and focus on making revenue in the same way their current software is making the majority of its revenue these last few years (See: MS on Steam). For many, what MS will become in the next 6 years or so is going to look exactly as it is now, only them not focusing on selling HW and instead just increasing their services and SW revenue, and putting their SW on any platform that'll take it. This is literally how all of MS' profitable divisions operate - why should Xbox be any different?
 
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I don't think people truly understand that even for a company like Microsoft, spending $70 billion is not some drop in the bucket for them. That's still a fuck ton of money that even Microsoft surely gagged at the thought of.

They attempted to make this purchase because it was a unique opportunity that fell in their lap to make a huge impact for their Xbox brand, which has struggled for 20 years to achieve its goals. It really did represent the only chance they had to make a sudden huge gain in the market the likes of which they could not hope to accomplish any other way.

Without this deal as they tried to secure it, they'll be right back to the very slow grind and the company at large is not going to be so eager to blow that kind of cash on a bunch of smaller possibilities that almost certainly won't collectively have the same impact as owning ABK. Certainly not when other companies are willing to fight you on a bunch of little, more easily digestible bidding wars.
As far as MS was concerned, they already invested more in giving Xbox a position to actually affect the market, more than they ever had previously. $69B is simply a completely different level of investment for them; its the largest acquisition in tech history for a reason.

Entities the size of CoD almost *never* hit the sale block. It took a very specific set of circumstances to get Kotick to even consider it, and it was purely born out of greed and trying to save face in the fiscal world. Microsoft has 0 interest in setting $69b on fire to allow them to compete or consolidate the gaming market. The timescale for RoI on an investment like that could take 15 years or more.
 

Varteras

Member
As far as MS was concerned, they already invested more in giving Xbox a position to actually affect the market, more than they ever had previously. $69B is simply a completely different level of investment for them; its the largest acquisition in tech history for a reason.

Entities the size of CoD almost *never* hit the sale block. It took a very specific set of circumstances to get Kotick to even consider it, and it was purely born out of greed and trying to save face in the fiscal world. Microsoft has 0 interest in setting $69b on fire to allow them to compete or consolidate the gaming market. The timescale for RoI on an investment like that could take 15 years or more.

What is your take on Phil Spencer's position if this deal fails as they tried to secure it? Others seem to think he's out if it doesn't work based on how Xbox still seems to be failing to gain ground as a first-party.
 

Pelta88

Member
MS is not going to take any money they didn't spend here and put it into these one time fantasy deals you're listing here. Thats not how financial decisions at publishers are made.

Microsoft never had the intention to put *this much money* into any one acquisition in the gaming space. ATVI & CoD, T2 & GTA: these are *exceptions*. Note that the folks interested in making the ATVI (Facebook/Google/Amazon) deal were folks that had large sums of money from outside of gaming - thats how big these IPs are and how they can drive all sorts of vertical integrations. That is worth the astronomical price tags these two juggernauts are worth.

After this entire debacle, Microsoft's interest in potentially doing things that drag them into courts is going to go right down to 0. Their entire corporate focus is going to shift to AI and quickly. Gaming is gonna get left behind, and why shouldn't it for them: its been a big loss-leading initiative so far. Lots of money burned with almost nothing to show for it, and its been nearly 5 years of them trying to rebound.

There are loads of ways that they'll always make money and be involved in gaming - their appetite for doing this whole back and forth thing, just to sell consoles, is basically done at this point.

If this is the case, then as a PlayStation fan and owner of all consoles, this is kinda depressing.

There are bigger and far-reaching consequences if the deal fails.

It sets a regulatory precedent which ensures that Microsoft can't purchase big publishers. Forget the regulators, the next time MS even thinks about purchasing a publisher, for ip, they've got to go and get Sony on board first and foremost. Imagine being that incompetent... Imagine your biggest competitor having oversight and final say on any significant gaming purchase you want to make. It's nonsensical. But that is the reality we're 'possibly' just a few short days from.
 
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reinking

Gold Member
...Forget the regulators, the next time they even think about purchasing ip they've got to go and get Sony on board first and foremost. Imagine being that incompetent... Imagine your biggest competitor having oversight and final say on any significant gaming purchase you want to make. It's nonsensical. But that is the reality we're 'possibly' just a few short days from.
What are you basing this on? (the IP part, not big publishers)
 
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Banjo64

cumsessed
  1. Spider-Man 2
  2. Horizon CoTM
  3. Firewall Ultra
  4. GT 7 PS VR 2
  5. Stellar Blade
  6. MLB The Show '23
  7. Helldivers 2 (currently unannounced, but it'll release this year)
  8. Horizon - Burning Shores Expansion
I’m sorry brother but that list is Xbox tier. I’ll just call it hopefully Spider-Man and Factions (and that would be a great year for me personally).
 

Nothing1234

Banned
What is your take on Phil Spencer's position if this deal fails as they tried to secure it? Others seem to think he's out if it doesn't work based on how Xbox still seems to be failing to gain ground as a first-party.
His position would be safe I think, there are many levels of authorisation this will have had to go through.
 

The_Mike

I cry about SonyGaf from my chair in Redmond, WA
A fanboy calling others fanboy lol
OIP.1Y7cIvFAuLW8qYlsom7LMAHaEc

You need to differentiate between a preferred platform and a fanboy though.
 
What is your take on Phil Spencer's position if this deal fails as they tried to secure it? Others seem to think he's out if it doesn't work based on how Xbox still seems to be failing to gain ground as a first-party.
Theres a couple of things going on with Phil and his leadership group at MS, both from what i've heard and based on what are increasingly clear market indicators.

For one, the Xbox Series is just not where they wanted it to be, especially given the level of investment they have put into essentially giving it an exclusive service that was all about ensuring adoption. Results for early this year, last year - its all a mess. Its one thing to take fiscal numbers and obfuscate them for investor reporting, but its an entirely other thing when folks within MS are starting to finger point some of these losses.

I've said this before in this thread and i'll say it again: i'm actually pro-MS, but very much anti-Phil Spencer. I think he has been an outright awful leader for the division, and is completely out of touch with the international console market and where consumers, even purely Xbox consumers, were going in their tastes and interests. Based on what i've heard, MS is on track to miss their already adjusted internal growth forecast for GP for the 3rd year in a row (it'll take a miracle for them to make up that ground in the next 4 months or so). Console sales are a mess. And if the stories regarding how the chipset for the Xbox Series line is to be believed, then they are basically handcuffed on Xbox Series X production with their Series S production, which given the factors they face in selling HW, this means that they have to overproduce the unit the market is soundly rejecting to get an increase in production on the unit that seems to have higher demand (Series X).

I'm not sure how you can allow a division leader and their leadership group to remain in charge given all of these realities that he basically drove them to these last 5 years or so, and thats not even counting that many of the regulatory issues that are set to sink this deal are directly and *exclusively* attributed to decisions Phil made, such as pulling Bethesda titles from releasing on PS/Nintendo. I know one thing - Nadella is tired of missing out on his Executive Bonuses because the Xbox division continues to underperform at every turn, and this is with the sizeable investments he keeps making into them.

His position would be safe I think, there are many levels of authorisation this will have had to go through.
Whenever you have big deals that fall through like this currently is, leadership is usually one of the big things that gets a shakeup afterwards, and there are loads of business reasons as to why you would do this.

A big acquisition like this isn't done in a vacuum - you have a leader championing it, and pushing their entire business strategy around this deal. If you can't get the deal, that means loads of those plans are just not working out. And Spencer has been famously underperforming in the role where it counts. Not to mention - this deal is currently set to fail specifically due in part to stuff Spencer has specifically decided. If you think he's in any way safe should this fall through, you're wrong. Heck, if Kotick wasn't hadn't hired protection against shareholders and wasn't gonna get $3b (potentially) given to them by MS, then his ass would also be on the chopping block.
 
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Yeah just goofy in both directions. I want MS to complete the Acti/Blizz transaction and then i want Sony to go after Square Enix and some others. I wanna see more shakeup in the industry. Dirty secrects revealed. Angry acquired dev team members splintering off and creating NEW dev companies making amazing games. Etc etc. Everyone seems to just want things to say the same... don't understand why personally. This shit is exciting and interesting IMO.

As if acquiring SE is in any shape or form comparable to snatching ABK! Reminds me of Phil and Satya's asinine and, frankly, ridiculous statements: Let us compete! Well, if by competition you mean getting into a boxing ring with a bazooka, then your words would indeed make sense.
My question to you is, where do you draw the line? Suppose that the deal goes through...What would stop MS from buying out Ubisoft in a couple of years? Would that be fine? It should, theoretically, since both MS and Ubisoft would be willing to marry each other for an insane amount of money, courtesy of the cosmically large warchest of MS. How about making Capcom an offer they can not refuse? Why not target Sega as well, for good measure? Would not it drive Sony to be better? Or would it simply suffocate them, not because of MS great line-up, well thought-out marketing campaigns or robust distribution network, no; Just by using obscene resources the company amasses from its core activities, which its competitors could only dream of. I am fine with the deal passing through, as long as the main multiplaforms franchises keep releasing on the Playstation, and that MS is dissuaded from making similar moves in the future.
 
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This right here. Probably more than anything else. At the end of the day it is not really so much acquisitions or exclusivity that is the problem. Otherwise Zenimax and Bungie would have been big deals that regulators came down on and other companies complained about. That clearly didn't happen. We're talking about Activision Blizzard. A company with almost 10,000 employees. The largest third-party publisher of games in North America and the largest globally in the console space while being one of the largest in mobile. The most commercially successful franchise with Call of Duty that represents a significant amount of revenue for any platform it is on. Other large franchises like Warcraft, Overwatch, and Diablo. This attempted $70 billion acquisition absolutely dwarfs anything else being done. Sony securing some Final Fantasy titles as PlayStation exclusives for some unrevealed period of time and keeping them from Xbox, a platform the franchise performs significantly worse on anyway, is not on the radar for regulators for all those reasons.

Don't assume that regulators know what's going on. They have absolutely no idea what's truly going on behind the scenes of all of these publishers. And what would you say when regulators approve the deal, because I think that's quite clearly where they're signaling this is all headed. Regulators will be okay with this transaction.
 

pasterpl

Member
What's the point of having a Xbox then, since MS are so nice and give you all their games on PC day one?
I have got similar setup, in my home office I have got gaming pc (GeForce 3090, 64gb ddr5) connected to 48 inch, 120hz oled monitor, then in my living room I have got series x connected to 75 inch 8k Samsung TV, in my bedroom I have got Xbox one x connected to my 4k projector with 120 screen. You need to experience MS ecosystem and try it to understand how seamless it is moving between devices on the same MS account, start level on PC, continue on xbseries x and finish on Xbox one x. Just magic, everything syncs. Now that Xbox one x can cloud stream series x only games that’s even better as I don’t need to download some games on one x.

I love reading Microsoft revenge fantasy stories and what they'd do with the Microsoft warchest by Xbox fans here and Resetera. You guys are hilarious lmao. 😆😆😆😆😆
Same, but I enjoy both Sony and MS revenge fiction, plenty of it in this thread. Eg. poster who fantasied about how Sony will block all 3rd party AAA exclusives for 6 months on Xbox as a response to ABK deal. Or how MS going to exit console market all together.
So you want Microsoft to lose money on time-exclusive deals just to get back at Sony? They'll make the $69b back and more with the acquisition, this is something fans want to happen as revenge and it's not likely to happen.
As I stated, it was purely hypothetical and in respond to poster who fantasied about how Sony blocking all 3rd party AAA exclusives for 6 months on Xbox as a response to ABK deal. Also with some of these games they might actually claw back some market share from Sony. Get more GP subscribers etc.
 
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Topher

Identifies as young
Exactly. When some people bring up Sony's exclusivity deals, they act like Sony's doing what Nintendo did in the '80s. Sony aren't preventing 3P devs/pubs from working with Microsoft or Nintendo, they aren't forcing them to only release games on PlayStation. And AFAIK, they aren't preventing 3P devs/pubs from entertaining offers from Microsoft or Nintendo for marketing rights.

The only thing that would potentially get Sony in trouble is if they were locking 3P publishers out from accepting bids offered by Microsoft for 3P marketing deals & exclusivity. And by that I mean, it'd literally have to be Sony getting an offer by a 3P developer/publisher, who were otherwise considering making an offer to multiple parties, and then Sony came in with some placeholder offer but tied the 3P into not considering offers from Microsoft while waiting to finalize a placeholder offer.

To make a comparison in terms of the ABK acquisition, it'd be like if ABK came to Microsoft with an offer to be bought, then Microsoft puts in a placeholder but also tells ABK they can't shop around with other potential buyers until they (Microsoft) give a final decision on the offer ABK presented to them.

Something which Microsoft obviously didn't do, because it'd be illegal (and if they didn't do that, why would Sony do the equivalent with 3P deals?).

So something like SFV would not qualify there, as I'm pretty sure Capcom made that game's status known to multiple platform holders, but Sony providing a better offer (co-funding and marketing in exchange for console exclusivity) is not something where they (Sony) would have made Microsoft unable to provide a similar or better offer. Microsoft just simply didn't care to make a counteroffer. They chose not to compete in that instance, just like how Sony chose not to compete for a better offer to Dead Rising 3, which is why Microsoft got that as a console exclusive.

Another thing that'd be exempt from this is, say, Sony signing a multi-year and/or multi-game deal with a 3P. Because ultimately it is the choice of the 3P as to what items are in the deal; if a platform holder like Sony sweetens the pot to throw some extra stuff on top, that is simply in addition to a base offer which was already accepted and of which Sony would not have prevented another company (i.e Microsoft) from being able to outbid them on. So offering more to make the deal even more enticing for the winning bidder is ultimately to the 3P's benefit just as much as it is to the platform holder's. It's a mutually beneficial relationship and the 3P still operates as an independent entity.

Since I doubt Sony are locking Microsoft out from even being able to bid on 3P exclusivity deals that otherwise would have been presented by the 3P developer or publisher initially to multiple platform holders (aka Sony isn't tampering with the process of offer on a 3P product that is intended for multiple platforms), let alone preventing 3P from releasing games on Xbox platforms altogether, then arguments using that to claim they're being anti-competitive don't hold up.

Any instance where it's a 3P dev or pub specifically approaching Sony for a possible co-development/co-funding or co-marketing deal, or where multiple games or multiple years of rights are decided on at a time, or where Sony may themselves offer co-funding & co-marketing support in exchange for marketing &/or exclusivity rights on top of a known release or group of releases, are not anti-competitive. Microsoft could have done the same and in fact not only have, but continue to, and that's perfectly fine. At the end of the day, all of those deals still have a clear separation between the 3P entity and the platform holder, the former retains independence in terms of their corporate structure, and both sides see some mutual benefit.

There might be some parallels between that and a vertical M&A, but the difference is that a 3P developer (and especially publisher) still has to act within the best interest of their own business in terms of revenue, and the platform holder isn't going to go for deals that make no financial sense on their end. Sony could want GTA6 as a PS5 console exclusive or even launch exclusive (as in full launch exclusive i.e no Xbox & no PC) all they want, but they're not going to pay the (probably) $500 million or even $1 billion to make that happen and Take-Two aren't going to take that for the potential billions being left on the table by excluding Xbox and PC for even a month, let alone three. Since Sony doesn't have any corporate power over the publisher, developer, or IP, they can't just "force" that scenario into happening even if they by all accounts would want to.

OTOH, if Sony suddenly owned Take-Two, Rockstar and GTA? Yes, they very much could do that, even if there were initial upfront losses, because they'd know the insane amount of demand (and revenue) a move like making GTA6 exclusive to PS5 would do for the brand. And so would regulators, which is why they'd never allow that type of acquisition, at least not without a structural remedy involving divestiture of GTA, the same way regulators are pushing for MS to divest COD/Activision (and the associated studios) as a structural remedy, if they want the deal to be passed at all.

There's a massive scale of difference, from the money involved, to natural checks & balances, to the degree of leveraging the content against rivals, between exclusivity & marketing deals and acquisitions. Even if there are otherwise some similarities between the two. People who say otherwise are either trolling, disingenuous, or ignorant.

Good post, but I feel like it needs to be in a more readable format.....

whatever GIF
 
What is your take on Phil Spencer's position if this deal fails as they tried to secure it? Others seem to think he's out if it doesn't work based on how Xbox still seems to be failing to gain ground as a first-party.

Personally I think he's on the way out the door. Not because his job's in jeopardy, but because he's essentially at his "peak" in the corporate side of things at Microsoft. He's not going to suddenly transition to the Azure, Windows or Office divisions. He's already the head of all of Microsoft Gaming, and has been getting awards out the ass for the past year. Lifetime Achievement-style awards, no less.

There's nowhere for him to go "upwards", feels like. So if the deal fails, why not just retire on an otherwise high note career recognition-wise? If he stays at Microsoft in case the deal fails, that failure will forever linger over him as long as he remains. Plus, I've seen several people around here & online mention that usually, when these types of deals fail, the management involved in those deals tend to be let go, or they simply "elect" to move on.

Microsoft didn't "fire" Bonnie Ross, they let her bow out with the optics appearing it was by her own terms. It would be the same with Phil Spencer and whoever else at Xbox so should this deal fail. They'll either announce retirement, or a new start-up venture, or a new position at another company if they've been working on landing one, and the optics will make it seem like they're leaving on their own terms versus being fired for leading (potentially) the company's largest M&A failure in history.

Yeah just goofy in both directions. I want MS to complete the Acti/Blizz transaction and then i want Sony to go after Square Enix and some others. I wanna see more shakeup in the industry. Dirty secrects revealed. Angry acquired dev team members splintering off and creating NEW dev companies making amazing games. Etc etc. Everyone seems to just want things to say the same... don't understand why personally. This shit is exciting and interesting IMO.

You missed with Mike Brown and other Playground devs split off weeks before the layoffs to start their own studio? 😉

MS is not going to take any money they didn't spend here and put it into these one time fantasy deals you're listing here. Thats not how financial decisions at publishers are made.

Microsoft never had the intention to put *this much money* into any one acquisition in the gaming space. ATVI & CoD, T2 & GTA: these are *exceptions*. Note that the folks interested in making the ATVI (Facebook/Google/Amazon) deal were folks that had large sums of money from outside of gaming - thats how big these IPs are and how they can drive all sorts of vertical integrations. That is worth the astronomical price tags these two juggernauts are worth.

After this entire debacle, Microsoft's interest in potentially doing things that drag them into courts is going to go right down to 0. Their entire corporate focus is going to shift to AI and quickly. Gaming is gonna get left behind, and why shouldn't it for them: its been a big loss-leading initiative so far. Lots of money burned with almost nothing to show for it, and its been nearly 5 years of them trying to rebound.

There are loads of ways that they'll always make money and be involved in gaming - their appetite for doing this whole back and forth thing, just to sell consoles, is basically done at this point.

Oh, it's already shifting to AI. Even cloud is taking a bit of a backseat compared to AI at this point (though for MS, cloud will obviously power their AI plans so it's always going to remain a major pillar).

Like you said, ABK is an exception for MS in gaming, which is why they're willing to spend the $69 billion. The ones who think they're going to keep all of that $69 billion in gaming are delusional fools, because Microsoft aren't going to wall off that much money for a division that ultimately means little to their bottom line. It doesn't matter if they can make back that money in a year of net profits; it is still money being "wasted" on something that matters less than 10% to Microsoft's revenue or profits as a company, and has remained that way for over twenty years.

If the deal gets rejected, MS are going to use the vast majority of that $69 billion for other investments like AI, healthcare, and maybe even EV (electric vehicles) and other business/big data stuff. They're going to use a good amount of it for the Surface team, for Azure, Windows, and Office. Xbox will be lucky to get a tenth of that $69 billion if the deal doesn't go through, especially since MS would have to pay $2 - $3 billion out to ABK if they walk away.

Even $6.9 billion over the period of a few years could go a long way to benefit Xbox, IF it's used wisely, but then that gets to the other (bigger) problem: the upper management isn't very good at making best usage of their funds. They've been more interested in launching refrigerators and bean bags than incentivizing devs to put in more time for games to get done sooner, or attracting better upper management talent that can creatively lead and grow the internal studios, or secure some smart licensing deals of mainstream entertainment IP some of the studios could build out games or franchises around.

Somehow, instead MS think they need Sony to give them the answers, when Microsoft already have the answers, just look at the 360 generation.

Don't assume that regulators know what's going on. They have absolutely no idea what's truly going on behind the scenes of all of these publishers. And what would you say when regulators approve the deal, because I think that's quite clearly where they're signaling this is all headed. Regulators will be okay with this transaction.

Bro, no. The regulators are not as clueless as you think they are. And FWIW, if Sony are somehow guilty of anti-competitive deals with 3P devs and pubs, guess who else is guilty? The exact same 3P devs and pubs that took on the deals. So there'd be a lot more companies than just Sony getting hit with lawsuits if that were in fact the case.

But, 3P devs/pubs are aware of those consequences, and they would be stupid to enter such arrangements, so I doubt that is ever going to become a smoking gun. And, they would be held in contempt because unlike when Nintendo did anti-competitive practices, the industry is a lot more mature and Nintendo's own issues with those types of policies in the Famicom/NES era would not be forgotten so easily by Sony or 3P publishers.
 
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