Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Snake29

Banned
I love reading Microsoft revenge fantasy stories and what they'd do with the Microsoft warchest by Xbox fans here and Resetera. You guys are hilarious lmao. 😆😆😆😆😆

Era is just another level. No another world they life in. Complete brainwashed and braindead with all their fanfiction revenge stories that MS would release some kind of NUKE when it doesn't work out for them lol.

MS never should've purely turned their focus on a rental service alone. You can clearly see that GP isn't really growing and that they are almost put in the shadow realm with game sales from big third party games.
 

Varteras

Member
Theres a couple of things going on with Phil and his leadership group at MS, both from what i've heard and based on what are increasingly clear market indicators.

For one, the Xbox Series is just not where they wanted it to be, especially given the level of investment they have put into essentially giving it an exclusive service that was all about ensuring adoption. Results for early this year, last year - its all a mess. Its one thing to take fiscal numbers and obfuscate them for investor reporting, but its an entirely other thing when folks within MS are starting to finger point some of these losses.

I've said this before in this thread and i'll say it again: i'm actually pro-MS, but very much anti-Phil Spencer. I think he has been an outright awful leader for the division, and is completely out of touch with the international console market and where consumers, even purely Xbox consumers, were going in their tastes and interests. Based on what i've heard, MS is on track to miss their already adjusted internal growth forecast for GP for the 3rd year in a row (it'll take a miracle for them to make up that ground in the next 4 months or so). Console sales are a mess. And if the stories regarding how the chipset for the Xbox Series line is to be believed, then they are basically handcuffed on Xbox Series X production with their Series S production, which given the factors they face in selling HW, this means that they have to overproduce the unit the market is soundly rejecting to get an increase in production on the unit that seems to have higher demand (Series X).

I'm not sure how you can allow a division leader and their leadership group to remain in charge given all of these realities that he basically drove them to these last 5 years or so, and thats not even counting that many of the regulatory issues that are set to sink this deal are directly and *exclusively* attributed to decisions Phil made, such as pulling Bethesda titles from releasing on PS/Nintendo. I know one thing - Nadella is tired of missing out on his Executive Bonuses because the Xbox division continues to underperform at every turn, and this is with the sizeable investments he keeps making into them.


Whenever you have big deals that fall through like this currently is, leadership is usually one of the big things that gets a shakeup afterwards, and there are loads of business reasons as to why you would do this.

A big acquisition like this isn't done in a vacuum - you have a leader championing it, and pushing their entire business strategy around this deal. If you can't get the deal, that means loads of those plans are just not working out. And Spencer has been famously underperforming in the role where it counts. Not to mention - this deal is currently set to fail specifically due in part to stuff Spencer has specifically decided. If you think he's in any way safe should this fall through, you're wrong. Heck, if Kotick wasn't hadn't hired protection against shareholders and wasn't gonna get $3b (potentially) given to them by MS, then his ass would also be on the chopping block.

Personally I think he's on the way out the door. Not because his job's in jeopardy, but because he's essentially at his "peak" in the corporate side of things at Microsoft. He's not going to suddenly transition to the Azure, Windows or Office divisions. He's already the head of all of Microsoft Gaming, and has been getting awards out the ass for the past year. Lifetime Achievement-style awards, no less.

There's nowhere for him to go "upwards", feels like. So if the deal fails, why not just retire on an otherwise high note career recognition-wise? If he stays at Microsoft in case the deal fails, that failure will forever linger over him as long as he remains. Plus, I've seen several people around here & online mention that usually, when these types of deals fail, the management involved in those deals tend to be let go, or they simply "elect" to move on.

Microsoft didn't "fire" Bonnie Ross, they let her bow out with the optics appearing it was by her own terms. It would be the same with Phil Spencer and whoever else at Xbox so should this deal fail. They'll either announce retirement, or a new start-up venture, or a new position at another company if they've been working on landing one, and the optics will make it seem like they're leaving on their own terms versus being fired for leading (potentially) the company's largest M&A failure in history.

I personally never understood the cult surrounding him. The man has been the head of Xbox since 2014 and we've seen nothing from him to suggest he's worthy of the praise. Hell, he was in charge of Microsoft Studios before he moved up and even that wasn't worth the adoration.
 

pasterpl

Member
You can clearly see that GP isn't really growing and that they are almost put in the shadow realm with game sales from big third party games.
Link? Every quarterly financials are showing growth of GP (sometimes higher, other times lower but it it is always growth). Any links showing proof of it not really growing? Or is it another made up fantasy?
 
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bitbydeath

Gold Member
I’m sorry brother but that list is Xbox tier. I’ll just call it hopefully Spider-Man and Factions (and that would be a great year for me personally).
Agreed, however keep in mind.

10th Sep 2021 - was the date of Sony’s last 1st party announcement.

18th Jan 2022 - was when MS announced intent to acquire Activision.

I think it’s safe to assume that we don’t know what Sony have going on, even for this year.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Ah man.....we are about to hit 500 pages.

Happy Dance GIF by HOFER Österreich
 

Drell

Member
I have got similar setup, in my home office I have got gaming pc (GeForce 3090, 64gb ddr5) connected to 48 inch, 120hz oled monitor, then in my living room I have got series x connected to 75 inch 8k Samsung TV, in my bedroom I have got Xbox one x connected to my 4k projector with 120 screen. You need to experience MS ecosystem and try it to understand how seamless it is moving between devices on the same MS account, start level on PC, continue on xbseries x and finish on Xbox one x. Just magic, everything syncs. Now that Xbox one x can cloud stream series x only games that’s even better as I don’t need to download some games on one x.
Mmh ok I get your point and respect it.
 

Sanepar

Member
I personally never understood the cult surrounding him. The man has been the head of Xbox since 2014 and we've seen nothing from him to suggest he's worthy of the praise. Hell, he was in charge of Microsoft Studios before he moved up and even that wasn't worth the adoration.
I think to be fair he at least had a strategy around games. Knew they need more exclusive content and bought a lot of studios and had focus on games. But even with 23 studios he can't delivery.
 

Varteras

Member
I think to be fair he at least had a strategy around games. Knew they need more exclusive content and bought a lot of studios and had focus on games. But even with 23 studios he can't delivery.
Oh I don't think he didn't at least try and I certainly feel like he had better sense than Mattrick. But the way people have revered this man you'd think he crushed his job, performed miracles, and took Xbox to nirvana. None are true. No one should get the praise he gets for the honestly quite limited success he's had.
 
I've said this before in this thread and i'll say it again: i'm actually pro-MS, but very much anti-Phil Spencer. I think he has been an outright awful leader for the division, and is completely out of touch with the international console market and where consumers, even purely Xbox consumers, were going in their tastes and interests. Based on what i've heard, MS is on track to miss their already adjusted internal growth forecast for GP for the 3rd year in a row (it'll take a miracle for them to make up that ground in the next 4 months or so). Console sales are a mess. And if the stories regarding how the chipset for the Xbox Series line is to be believed, then they are basically handcuffed on Xbox Series X production with their Series S production, which given the factors they face in selling HW, this means that they have to overproduce the unit the market is soundly rejecting to get an increase in production on the unit that seems to have higher demand (Series X).

Yeah on the production side of things, T T_T 's post here is a pretty good example of how MS have things set up. MS has some wiggle room to adjust the wafers, but I'm pretty sure there's lead time involved in orders of wafer adjustments, especially since MS have to do it through AMD (they don't go through TSMC directly).

So there is some control they can have over Series S & X production rates, but I don't think Series X demand is large enough to really necessitate a significant increase in production amounts. So at least for some time they would be stuck with (at the very least) Series S wafers just sitting there, wafers they paid for but aren't doing anything with, just to avoid flooding the market with more of those systems. And those are costs MS have to eat one way or the other anyway.

Would rather see them spin those S chips into what Project Keystone was shaping up into, and/or into some new Surface product line. At least they would get use out of the wafer and with products that could be either cheaper to make or not bleed money on hardware (or maybe even both) the way the Series S is.

I think to be fair he at least had a strategy around games. Knew they need more exclusive content and bought a lot of studios and had focus on games. But even with 23 studios he can't delivery.

Was it really his strategy though? Because for as much crap people give Don Mattrick, his strategy was also about games and he actually secured several notable exclusives for XBO for the launch and first few years of its life. He did push Kinect though and that kind of screwed up the 360 near its end; I think the TV stuff was mainly other parts of MS shoving the push onto Mattrick so he didn't have too much a choice.

Phil Spencer's trying to do Mattrick's job on the game front but he hasn't been measuring up. And he's a far cry from Peter Moore era Xbox. Neither Peter or Don allowed marquee IP like Halo to degrade as badly as it has under Phil's watch. They didn't let Xbox have desert years like 2022. They didn't even let potentially disastrous optics keep repeating regularly (RROD got handled in definitive terms relatively quickly; XBO DRM stuff was walked back even before launch or just a couple months after, then Don Mattrick left altogether).

So Phil Spencer can't even deliver as well as Don Mattrick despite messaging "all about games", and he's got way more to work with resources-wise than Mattrick or even Moore ever had.

Oh I don't think he didn't at least try and I certainly feel like he had better sense than Mattrick. But the way people have revered this man you'd think he crushed his job, performed miracles, and took Xbox to nirvana. None are true. No one should get the praise he gets for the honestly quite limited success he's had.

Even sillier is Aaron Greenberg somehow getting a promotion. He should hire the guy who runs VGChartz to handle Twitter social media sales news. He gave him the green light with that quote-tweet last year after all.
 

Sanepar

Member
Oh I don't think he didn't at least try and I certainly feel like he had better sense than Mattrick. But the way people have revered this man you'd think he crushed his job, performed miracles, and took Xbox to nirvana. None are true. No one should get the praise he gets for the honestly quite limited success he's had.
Xbox still have the same problem. Miss triple A superb single player experiences.

They won't gonna get PS audience with mp, indies or coops.
 

DrFigs

Member
Well, thats because ATVI is really only two different types of output: what Blizzard produces, which will remain multiplatform based on what we're seeing come out from this deal, and CoD.

ATVI occasionally will make attempts like the THPS 1+2 remake from a few years ago, or Crash 4, but by and large, Activision as an entity is really only in the business of CoD right now, and even if this deal were to go through without a single concession in place, that is likely exactly how CoD would remain, although given the nature of where the deal is currently headed, it seems CoD and probably most of Blizzard remains multiplatform.

Seems highly doubtful a 10 year deal is going to be enough to get this remedy through.
Well when i made the comment, I didn't realize that Activision basically only makes cod games now. For some reason, I thought they were this super prolific publisher.
 
Well when i made the comment, I didn't realize that Activision basically only makes cod games now. For some reason, I thought they were this super prolific publisher.

They do make "other games".

But COD is huge for Activision and many of their studios participate in its development.
 

Snake29

Banned
Link? Every quarterly financials are showing growth of GP (sometimes higher, other times lower but it it is always growth). Any links showing proof of it not really growing? Or is it another made up fantasy?

1 million new Q4 right, but its not really growing fast enough in general. This isn't really what they expected..

This whole gamepass is a big jojo effect atm and that's not healthy for a service.
 

Edmund

is waiting for Starfield 7
Gamepass just trains people not to buy games. Some games that are associated as gamepass games may not sell well when the sequel is out because people expect the sequel to come out on gamepass on release.

If a game I'm interested in is on gamepass day 1, I'm gonna wait till its about 50% off before buying it.
 
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demigod

Member
He isn't wrong. Sony isn't fighting this acquisition tooth and nail because they are "for the gamers". And Microsoft isn't trying to push this acquisition through because they are "for the gamers". Both companies have a bottom line that is all about the money. I stand against this acquisition because I don't think either company should be able to buy gigantic publishers as that is an anti-competitive practice.
For the gamers wasn’t what i was getting at. He is clearly biased. Do you not see how he singled out Sony for the price increase and walled garden? Look at which companies increased their games to $70. Oh that’s right, all 3.
 

ToadMan

Member
Don't assume that regulators know what's going on. They have absolutely no idea what's truly going on behind the scenes of all of these publishers. And what would you say when regulators approve the deal, because I think that's quite clearly where they're signaling this is all headed. Regulators will be okay with this transaction.

Really?

Ok, so tell us what the outcome of this transaction looks like in your opinion. Who owns what and under what conditions?
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Yeah on the production side of things, T T_T 's post here is a pretty good example of how MS have things set up. MS has some wiggle room to adjust the wafers, but I'm pretty sure there's lead time involved in orders of wafer adjustments, especially since MS have to do it through AMD (they don't go through TSMC directly).

So there is some control they can have over Series S & X production rates, but I don't think Series X demand is large enough to really necessitate a significant increase in production amounts. So at least for some time they would be stuck with (at the very least) Series S wafers just sitting there, wafers they paid for but aren't doing anything with, just to avoid flooding the market with more of those systems. And those are costs MS have to eat one way or the other anyway.

Would rather see them spin those S chips into what Project Keystone was shaping up into, and/or into some new Surface product line. At least they would get use out of the wafer and with products that could be either cheaper to make or not bleed money on hardware (or maybe even both) the way the Series S is.



Was it really his strategy though? Because for as much crap people give Don Mattrick, his strategy was also about games and he actually secured several notable exclusives for XBO for the launch and first few years of its life. He did push Kinect though and that kind of screwed up the 360 near its end; I think the TV stuff was mainly other parts of MS shoving the push onto Mattrick so he didn't have too much a choice.

Phil Spencer's trying to do Mattrick's job on the game front but he hasn't been measuring up. And he's a far cry from Peter Moore era Xbox. Neither Peter or Don allowed marquee IP like Halo to degrade as badly as it has under Phil's watch. They didn't let Xbox have desert years like 2022. They didn't even let potentially disastrous optics keep repeating regularly (RROD got handled in definitive terms relatively quickly; XBO DRM stuff was walked back even before launch or just a couple months after, then Don Mattrick left altogether).

So Phil Spencer can't even deliver as well as Don Mattrick despite messaging "all about games", and he's got way more to work with resources-wise than Mattrick or even Moore ever had.



Even sillier is Aaron Greenberg somehow getting a promotion. He should hire the guy who runs VGChartz to handle Twitter social media sales news. He gave him the green light with that quote-tweet last year after all.
Microsoft has immense tech debt, combine that with overreliance on contractors and the absolute need to deliver AAA GOTY candidates, increasing and deepening the scope of games, Microsoft has a problem they can't climb out of.

Sony on the other hand is a very well oiled machine. Rather than bringing in studios that take a tremendous amount of time to integrate, they bring on studios that have already been working with Sony and studios that have just got off the ground (i.e. no tech debt). Now mind you, getting new studios up to scale takes a long time, but Sony unlike Microsoft, doesn't put their entire years' catalog on the results of a junior studio. Games can be delayed so they get more polish and at this point they aren't even announcing the games until they're ready to.

Firewalk could take 7 years to produce a title and no one will care. It'll have little to no impact on the PS5. They're a nice to have, especially as Sony ventures more into MP.

Sony bought support studios and have been partnering with support studios, all this to reduce their tech debt. Microsoft went the other way. They bough Bethesda, a company with a mountain of tech debt themselves.

Phil Spencer did nothing to address the culture of tech debt at Xbox and has only encouraged it further.
 

Edmund

is waiting for Starfield 7
Really?

Ok, so tell us what the outcome of this transaction looks like in your opinion. Who owns what and under what conditions?

Microsoft acquires ATVI without any concessions, unleashes its warchest and buys EA, Take Two, Square Enix, Capcom and Bandai Namco all in one day.

Jez Corden, Ryan Mcaffrey, Dustin Legarie and Tom Warren break into Jim Ryan's office and shoots him dead.

Kenichiro Yoshida begs Phil Spencer for mercy. Phil signals for Lulu Cheng and she walks over to the whimpering Sony CEO and hangs a dildo-shaped dynamite in front of his face. "YAMETE!!!!! YAMETE KURE!!!", he begs as Lulu stuffs the dynamite in his mouth.

They both exit the building as the Sony headquarters erupts in an explosion, leaving only smoke and dust.

Sony fanboys on gaf like Edmund, GHG and Heisenberg commit seppuku.
 

Varteras

Member
Microsoft acquires ATVI without any concessions, unleashes its warchest and buys EA, Take Two, Square Enix, Capcom and Bandai Namco all in one day.

Jez Corden, Ryan Mcaffrey, Dustin Legarie and Tom Warren break into Jim Ryan's office and shoots him dead.

Kenichiro Yoshida begs Phil Spencer for mercy. Phil signals for Lulu Cheng and she walks over to the whimpering Sony CEO and hangs a dildo-shaped dynamite in front of his face. "YAMETE!!!!! YAMETE KURE!!!", he begs as Lulu stuffs the dynamite in his mouth.

They both exit the building as the Sony headquarters erupts in an explosion, leaving only smoke and dust.

Sony fanboys on gaf like Edmund, GHG and Heisenberg commit seppuku.
Jon Stewart Popcorn GIF
 

VAVA Mk2

Member
Microsoft acquires ATVI without any concessions, unleashes its warchest and buys EA, Take Two, Square Enix, Capcom and Bandai Namco all in one day.

Jez Corden, Ryan Mcaffrey, Dustin Legarie and Tom Warren break into Jim Ryan's office and shoots him dead.

Kenichiro Yoshida begs Phil Spencer for mercy. Phil signals for Lulu Cheng and she walks over to the whimpering Sony CEO and hangs a dildo-shaped dynamite in front of his face. "YAMETE!!!!! YAMETE KURE!!!", he begs as Lulu stuffs the dynamite in his mouth.

They both exit the building as the Sony headquarters erupts in an explosion, leaving only smoke and dust.

Sony fanboys on gaf like Edmund, GHG and Heisenberg commit seppuku.
Nice sarcasm.
 

feynoob

Banned
Jesus christ lads what a mess this thread is over the weekend, some absolute insanity in here. Go out, get drunk, get laid.

drunk cary grant GIF by Turner Classic Movies
Join me here. I log on few minutes, then log out and do my other business.
At least I get to enjoy top of the table view while we can.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I’m sorry brother but that list is Xbox tier. I’ll just call it hopefully Spider-Man and Factions (and that would be a great year for me personally).
Honestly, I wasn't listing the games to brag or war. I thought the guy wasn't aware of the games that were coming (lack of proper showcases to be blamed, and he also mentioned Factions for 2023, which isn't official yet), and I was listing the games to spread awareness.

That's why I dropped the conversation and didn't respond later because it might (1) lead to warring, and (2) derail the thread.

And I don't think Factions is releasing this year (as much as I want it though). I'm probably more hyped for it than Spider-Man 2.
 

pasterpl

Member
Honestly, I wasn't listing the games to brag or war. I thought the guy wasn't aware of the games that were coming (lack of proper showcases to be blamed, and he also mentioned Factions for 2023, which isn't official yet), and I was listing the games to spread awareness.

That's why I dropped the conversation and didn't respond later because it might (1) lead to warring, and (2) derailing the thread.

And I don't think Factions is releasing this year (as much as I want it though). I'm probably more hyped for it than Spider-Man 2.
Like any/many threads on neogaf, this even more so, actually discussion is 30%, rest is warring, unrelated posts and people just chatting about something else. I would say last couple, maybe 5 pages barely touch on the topic, but we’re actually sort of civil discussions on related topics. I am ignoring Phil Spencer obesssion that some have :) (regardless is you defending or attacking him, it is in healthy to spend so much time thinking about some mega Corp exec).
 

feynoob

Banned
Dear diary?
Come On Reaction GIF by MOODMAN


I must have missed something because I don't know what's going on.
My little sister told my 8 year little brother about the parental password. He used that password to initiate Roblox purchase worth of $150 in-game purchases.
If I didn't see those emails on time, I am afraid he would have cleared my bank account super fast.

It's scary how much money kids can spend on those games.
 

GHound

Member
Microsoft acquires ATVI without any concessions, unleashes its warchest and buys EA, Take Two, Square Enix, Capcom and Bandai Namco all in one day.

Jez Corden, Ryan Mcaffrey, Dustin Legarie and Tom Warren break into Jim Ryan's office and shoots him dead.

Kenichiro Yoshida begs Phil Spencer for mercy. Phil signals for Lulu Cheng and she walks over to the whimpering Sony CEO and hangs a dildo-shaped dynamite in front of his face. "YAMETE!!!!! YAMETE KURE!!!", he begs as Lulu stuffs the dynamite in his mouth.

They both exit the building as the Sony headquarters erupts in an explosion, leaving only smoke and dust.

Sony fanboys on gaf like Edmund, GHG and Heisenberg commit seppuku.
You forgot Kadokawa, Konami, Embracer, Ubisoft and Sega so the best I can give this is a 7.8/10. 😏
 

Pelta88

Member
Join me here. I log on few minutes, then log out and do my other business.

That's only because everything you posted was proven wrong. I mean, a few pages back you legitimately thought Phil Spencer promises were applicable and equivalent to law. Now you're here pretending you weren't also a key shoveller of Hoe law and idas' every whim. Even keeping us updated when they had hospital visits.

You can't rewrite your receipts.
 

feynoob

Banned
That's only because everything you posted was proven wrong. I mean, a few pages back you legitimately thought Phil Spencer promises were applicable and equivalent to law. Now you're here pretending you weren't also a key shoveller of Hoe law and idas' every whim. Even keeping us updated when they had hospital visits.

You can't rewrite your receipts.
Mate, sharing info doesn't mean you believe them.
Secondly, I really don't care about this purchase. It's why I am not bothering with it now.
I am a nobody. Not a fan of Xbox or cod.
Only reason why I was sharing these info was because I was free and bored. Nothing more nothing less.
 
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