Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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GHG

Gold Member
Let you incorrectly dictate my thoughts to others and paint me into a corner so you can dismiss what I say, when I know for a fact your claims are incorrect - "and we will all get along." How about we just don't get along then? I'm fine with that. You guys can kiss my ass.

Well if that's the way you want to be then no, you aren't likely to get on with many people. Not sure who you're trying to kid here.

The lengths some people will go to for the justification of anything related to "muh cheap games". Astonishing really.
 

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Barack Obama GIF
❤️
 
MS already has Zenimax.
Zenimax =/= any of the 4 I listed. They were closer to Square or Capcom as far as market value. In other words, not a market leader. Your average person that is even remotely familiar with gaming has probably heard the names EA or Activision. I know people that have been gaming for their entire lives and didn't know the name Zenimax.
 
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freefornow

Gold Member
I'm going to go to my employer today with a large white envelope, that i will wave around hypnotically, and say that inside this envelope is an offer from another employer to pay me twice as much as what i currently recieve. If you dont match this offer, I'm quitting.

I'll let you know how I go.
 

RickMasters

Member
Microsft has plenty of money, they willing to lose hundred of millions profit just to expand their Xbox market share.
They do indeed have plenty..... but ask yourself when was the last time you ever heard a company say they have enough...they always want more...because they are always growing..always expanding..always investing in something or another (and MS have their fingers in a lot of pies). If they are willing to 'lose' money short term to gain market share long term...Well...I got news for ya!....thats usually called making an investment! you spend to gain....
 

GHG

Gold Member
I have all platforms, subscribe to all services, including Geforce Now. Why would I want status quo? It gives me absolutely nothing.

If you have all platforms then the "status quo" gives you absolutely everything without needing to compromise anyone else.

Competition pushing for new approaches while also lowering prices is the essence of capitalism working for the consumer.

Yeh, until it doesn't. But that's for the regulators to work out and prevent.
 
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ToadMan

Member
Zenimax =/= any of the 4 I listed.
Yes and that would be your mistake.

Zeni were more valuable than Ubi yet you included them as a “big player” so Zeni gets a place at that table too.

And Zeni is in MS’s bag already.

Don’t take my word for it - the CMA already referred to Bethesda and the way MS handled that while investigating this deal.
 

Baki

Member
I don't think Microsoft would offer to pay double what a publisher is worth (possibly they would during a recession where value has plummeted for a time period, afterall they're only after ABK because of their stock price plummeting), but they can't while they're tied up in their current acquisition.

I find that there haven't been very many gaps between Microsoft's gaming acquisitions. They've been going at a steady pace since 2018. It might be premature to think that Microsoft has tried to acquire but companies said no, especially if a company is publicly traded.

I believe Bungie shopped itself around and Microsoft wasn't willing to accept their terms (basically independence).

I could see Sony buying Square Enix, makes sense, especially if ABK goes through. However, if they're willing to sell, I don't think they get to pick their buyer. Fiduciary duty would require them to get the best price possible. Which would mean shopping themselves around. There are ways around this, having the majority of the stock and deciding where your company ends up, but generally a publicly traded company has to get the best price possible.

I agree that Sony probably doesn't want regulator scrutiny, which is why they probably haven't made huge acquisitions like Microsoft is attempting. There is a downside to being the clear market leader.

Regardless, I wasn't remarking on Sony's strategy, just that Microsoft will (even if this ABK acquisition is blocked) continue to pursue gaming acquisitions. But I think we agree that they won't use $70B like some fanboys seem to think.

That's because people don't understand the difference in spending $70B compared to investing $70B. If ABK closes, Sony will likely bid for TakeTwo, because they're the only ones with a big enough IP to rival COD eventually becoming exclusive to Xbox. I can see Sony acquiring Square Enix because they're quite fairly valued, have lots of cross-media IPs, lots of legacy games and a good live-service arm with FF14. Acquiring both publishers would increase PS revenue by 26%.
 
Down with big tech oligarchies.
Microsoft would be the perfect big tech company to be used an example, as most their history has been about buying up all the small players.
Please. A green handshake from Microsoft will seal the deal. Money talks. The regulators are politicians who need to put on a show.

This deal will be approved.

So, you think a under close scrutiny, reseach and study, a big tech company spending the most money they EVER attempted to spend, will be able to bribe their way to success with no friction? If that was the case, they would have done that from the start with the FTC, rather than draw this out any longer than it needs to. After already being block blocked by the FTC, the notion that a bribe will prevent a politician from exposing corruption in a deal this big for a faceless tech company is foolish, but more wishful thinking.
 

Fess

Member
If you have all platforms then the "status quo" gives you absolutely everything without needing to compromise anyone else.
It gives me nothing. Having access to the hardware just allow me to buy everything. Big difference. I could go out and buy the latest Megadeth album too, but I prefer listening to it on Spotify since I’m already paying for the sub. Games subscriptions are even better since there is no compression loss. I want more games on my subs, simple as that.
 
think the only big company Sony has its eye on is Square Enix. That would be a $5.5 billion purchase at current market cap. At a 30% premium you're looking at over $7 billion. Certainly a doable sum for Sony, but that assumes SE is even willing to sell.
Just my opinion but:

Nah. We good. Ne need for that stinky thing as a Playstation Studio.

I was once a huge fan of Squaresoft and Square Enix but they changed a lot and I don't like most of what they are doing nowadays.
 
Yes and that would be your mistake.

Zeni were more valuable than Ubi yet you included them as a “big player” so Zeni gets a place at that table too.

And Zeni is in MS’s bag already.

Don’t take my word for it - the CMA already referred to Bethesda and the way MS handled that while investigating this deal.
Just because M$ grossly overpaid for Zenimax, does not mean they were worth more. They had an equity value of around 2.5 billion at the time of that deal. Ubi has a market cap of over 2.72 billion right now, so the argument can be made that those are about equal.

Again, from a brand recognition standpoint, Ubi is much better known.

Here's some comparisons, so you can see that your position is misinformed. Ubi consistently worth more than Zeni ever was.

Zenimax market cap until POS

Ubisoft market cap as of Feb 2023
 
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lefty1117

Gold Member
I hope this deal will blow up in their face and that they will loose even more marketshare.
Not a fan of this MS buy everything you can’t create yourself attitude, I have said it a couple of years ago, hope it will bite them in the ass. Trillion dollar company can’t even compete with a dwarf company compared.
I'm curious. Do you think Sony developed all of their platform exclusives on their own? Like, they hired their own developers in the Sony IT department and they built the games?
 
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GHG

Gold Member
It gives me nothing. Having access to the hardware just allow me to buy everything. Big difference. I could go out and buy the latest Megadeth album too, but I prefer listening to it on Spotify since I’m already paying for the sub. Games subscriptions are even better since there is no compression loss. I want more games on my subs, simple as that.

So like I said above it's "muh cheap games" at any cost.

You're basically saying as long as you get "cheaper" access to games you don't care what other customers (and industry participants) that might screw over in the process?

Two parts selfish, one part naive. The regulators don't exist to fluff subscription services.
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
Hahaha... you can't make this shit up.

I am curious though, MS keeps saying this shit about making this or that available to xxx millions of people. Who are these millions of people not getting the games now?
 

Bernardougf

Member
Today, reading some of these responses, I learned that xbox/ms buying ABK and all their IPs and taking away from PS gamers (who are the larger share of players of said IPs) to concetrate them on xbox system is good for competition and therefore for the gamers.

We learn something new everyday, is fascinating.

And.

If I were a COD die hard fan , independently of where Im playing it, I would be absolutely terrified of MS buying this IP, in fact, even if I play only on xbox I would cheer the fuck out to this acquisition dont come through, and everyone with a right mind and no console bias can see clearly why with Ms/Xbox studios management abilities.
 

FoxMcChief

Gold Member
So like I said above it's "muh cheap games" at any cost.

You're basically saying as long as you get "cheaper" access to games you don't care what other customers (and industry participants) that might screw over in the process?

Two parts selfish, one part naive. The regulators don't exist to fluff subscription services.
They should. Especially if they too are subscribers.

Nothing wrong with being selfish at the cost of others. At least I don’t think so.
 
But COD isn't being removed from PS, that's what you and everyone else complaining about COD is not realizing.

It gives me nothing. Having access to the hardware just allow me to buy everything. Big difference. I could go out and buy the latest Megadeth album too, but I prefer listening to it on Spotify since I’m already paying for the sub. Games subscriptions are even better since there is no compression loss. I want more games on my subs, simple as that.
You know as all here that ABK acquisition is just to content starve Playstation by withdrawing 9000 devs from the multiplatform market.
Your wish is against the interest of a majority I'm afraid, and is just a race to the bottom.
A la carte has always been better than open buffet, except maybe for Americans :).
 
With this much money and the players involved I don't see the deal not going through, nor do I see divestment happening. Just what I think, could be wrong, may be right. Not gonna lose sleep over it either way.
Thats a scary thought.

So just because these are huge companys that have lots of money they are allowed to do whatever they want, even if that is a disadvantage to consumers and a healthy market?
 

ToadMan

Member
Just because M$ grossly overpaid for Zenimax, does not mean they were worth more. They had an equity value of around 2.5 billion at the time of that deal. Ubi has a market cap of over 2.72 billion right now, so the argument can be made that those are about equal.

Again, from a brand recognition standpoint, Ubi is much better known.

Here's some comparisons, so you can see that your position is misinformed. Ubi consistently worth more than Zeni ever was.

Zenimax market cap until POS

Ubisoft market cap as of Feb 2023

In a free market, value is what someone will pay for it.

MS paid $7.5bn for zeni.

And then you talk about name recognition. Better remove Take 2 if that’s your criteria.
 
That's because people don't understand the difference in spending $70B compared to investing $70B. If ABK closes, Sony will likely bid for TakeTwo, because they're the only ones with a big enough IP to rival COD eventually becoming exclusive to Xbox. I can see Sony acquiring Square Enix because they're quite fairly valued, have lots of cross-media IPs, lots of legacy games and a good live-service arm with FF14. Acquiring both publishers would increase PS revenue by 26%.

TakeTwo is not on sale, iirc they already stated they are not interested in being acquired by any company. Also TakeTwo could be as expensive as ABK, or even more.

In regards of SE it wouldn’t suprise me if Tencent or any other investor buys a decent percentage of the company.
 

Varteras

Member
Just my opinion but:

Nah. We good. Ne need for that stinky thing as a Playstation Studio.

I was once a huge fan of Squaresoft and Square Enix but they changed a lot and I don't like most of what they are doing nowadays.

There are four reasons why I think Sony is eyeballing SE.

1) Live service. FF14 is a highly successful MMORPG and FF11 was successful before it. Sony would absolutely see the value there.

2) RPGs. Sony is highly lacking in teams that do RPGs. This would shore up that weakness with some of the biggest names in the genre.

3) Mobile. SE has a pretty strong mobile presence and Sony has clearly stated its intention to grow there.

4) Media properties. SE has properties that Sony would almost certainly see an opportunity to expand into other media, like movies and shows, the way they have with their current properties. SE has already done that themselves but Sony could take that to the next level.

Keep in mind that ultimately SE would be answering to Sony if they were bought. So they would have a bit more of an incentive to not fuck around the way they sometimes do.
 
Thats a scary thought.

So just because these are huge companys that have lots of money they are allowed to do whatever they want, even if that is a disadvantage to consumers and a healthy market?
Facts vs feelings. The commissions exist to prevent that scenario. I have very little confidence that things run the "way they should". Corruption is everywhere and in the grand scheme of things, the gaming industry as a whole doesn't mean a great deal to the future of the human race, these commissions would be better served spending time on acquisitions like amazon buying One Medical.
 
In a free market, value is what someone will pay for it.

MS paid $7.5bn for zeni.

And then you talk about name recognition. Better remove Take 2 if that’s your criteria.
Sure, they only published one of the most successful games in the history of the industry.
Also, market value is what the market evaluates the value to be. Just because M$ paid over $2 billion more than what Zeni was evaluated at the time was worth does not mean that anyone else would have done the same. Zeni took the offer because it would have been dumb not to.
 
It gives me nothing. Having access to the hardware just allow me to buy everything. Big difference. I could go out and buy the latest Megadeth album too, but I prefer listening to it on Spotify since I’m already paying for the sub. Games subscriptions are even better since there is no compression loss. I want more games on my subs, simple as that.
Somehow those companys will still have to make money to be able to produce game.

So either the subscription fees will rise or the content they offer will stagnate.
 

ToadMan

Member
There are four reasons why I think Sony is eyeballing SE.

1) Live service. FF14 is a highly successful MMORPG and FF11 was successful before it. Sony would absolutely see the value there.

2) RPGs. Sony is highly lacking in teams that do RPGs. This would shore up that weakness with some of the biggest names in the genre.

3) Mobile. SE has a pretty strong mobile presence and Sony has clearly stated its intention to grow there.

4) Media properties. SE has properties that Sony would almost certainly see an opportunity to expand into other media, like movies and shows, the way they have with their current properties. SE has already done that themselves but Sony could take that to the next level.

Keep in mind that ultimately SE would be answering to Sony if they were bought. So they would have a bit more of an incentive to not fuck around the way they sometimes do.

Yeah it does feel like there is some synergy between Sony and SE.

When SE sold off those non Japanese bits it seemed like a structural reorganisation in preparation for something.

Perhaps they’ve been clearing out their multiplat pipeline before announcing anything just to avoid the Starfield theft criticisms aimed at MS.

Even so, a deal for SE would be contingent on the ABK deal - I don’t think Sony do that unless they feel forced into it by a shifting market. It’s not Sony’s “style” to make this kind of acquisition (EDIT : Merger is probably a more accurate term in this case).
 
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gothmog

Gold Member
Well I say the regulators are influenced because the CMA took a CoD player survey and included the results in their published reports.

Now they’re not gonna put too much weight on it - surveys aren’t exhaustive- but their remit is to protect consumers so within reason they have to take sentiment on board.

EDiT : Oh and just to say that in the wake of yesterday’s event quite a few neutrals I saw here and there felt progress had been made by MS. So you’d have to say the messaging worked for those people without context.
CMA allows survey data to help make decisions. I wouldn't call it evidence of anything other than that they allow survey data to be submitted.

Ultimately the public is not deciding this. Labor unions are not deciding it. Other companies are not deciding it. The regulators will be deciding this and have already explained what they would like to see to allow it. Microsoft just thinks like always the rules don't apply to them and attempts to ignore it.
 

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
Microsoft just thinks like always the rules don't apply to them and attempts to ignore it.
They didn't ignore it. They stated clearly that its not worth even pursuing with the demands the CMA stated so far, and I think virtually everyone would agree with that.
 
Yeah it does feel like there is some synergy between Sony and SE.

When SE sold off those non Japanese bits it seemed like a structural reorganisation in preparation for something.

Perhaps they’ve been clearing out their multiplat pipeline before announcing anything just to avoid the Starfield theft criticisms aimed at MS.

Even so, a deal for SE would be contingent on the ABK deal - I don’t think Sony do that unless they feel forced into it by a shifting market. It’s not Sony’s “style” to make this kind of acquisition.
SE was a big part of Sony's initial success when they broke into the market with the PS1. This would be a completely natural (and personally acceptable) future purchase for Sony. Square has proven time and again they can't handle their own IP's. Let someone else call those shots.
 

RevGaming

Member
Zenimax =/= any of the 4 I listed. They were closer to Square or Capcom as far as market value. In other words, not a market leader. Your average person that is even remotely familiar with gaming has probably heard the names EA or Activision. I know people that have been gaming for their entire lives and didn't know the name Zenimax.

Ubisoft is worth 2B***. It's actually smaller than SE and Capcom. Bandai is almost worth as much as Take 2 too.

Ubisoft is becoming so worthless atm.
 
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