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MIT researchers: If things continue this way, "Global economic collapse" by 2030

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zomaha

Member
However, the study said "unlimited economic growth" is still possible if world governments enact policies and invest in green technologies that help limit the expansion of our ecological footprint.

Good luck getting conservatives on board.
 

Carcetti

Member
True enough. I'm just putting a little faith in the idea that we really can cooperate if faced with the prospect of imminent doom. Humans may be short-sighted and self-serving, but we're also innovative, determined little bastards when we need to be.

Except humans are very generally quite stupid and unable to see beyond their immediate actions. The 2005 book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive underlines this chillingly. There's lots of these vanished societies where people utterly destroyed themselves by not limiting their growth. You can't trust common sense or last-minute rescues.
 
Yes please, we need to stop slowing down the process at every turn because people are afraid of new technology. GM Foods are going to save millions (if not billions) of lives in the future.
I dont think the problem is fear for GM food, but companies like Monsanto. As long as such companies can exist i too really do not like GM food.
 

Red

Member
I dont think the problem is fear for GM food, but companies like Monsanto. As long as such companies can exist i too really do not like GM food.
There is a big distrust for GM food though. I doubt most people would know what Monsanto even is, but many of them would still be put off by the idea or principle of GM food.

Anecdotal, but I heard more arguments against GM food in my college bio classes than arguments for it. There's fear about ingesting something perceived as artificial, and a fear that "super crops" would wipe out existing crops and grow uncontrollably.
 

Tesseract

Banned
Which part do you think is pseudoscience?

the part where they gathers data and do such and so forth to forecast an event. it's nonsense. it's intimidation by so-called experts in a field without laws. they ride the coattails of real scientists. they and everyone like them (social scientists) bring great shame to the scientific community.
 

Orayn

Member
That still doesn't solve the infrastructure problem presented with replacing all our current electrical generation with solar. We need battery research to keep step with solar and wind research...
Of course. Personally, I'm rooting for nuclear, and perhaps one day fusion, as the main workhorse for our energy supply, with renewables filling in the gaps. I'd also love to see us make more progress on tidal, thermal-solar, and artificial geothermal power for the grid, and hydrogen fuel cells and ethanol from cellulose for transportation.

The solutions are definitely out there, we just need a fire lit under or collective asses to make it all work. If fossil fuel prices get high enough, expect people in high places to party more and more attention to this stuff.
 
Pretty sure there was a thread about this video, but its completely relevant here


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ&feature=watch_response It's long so if you're only interested in Energy, start ~ 49:00



Futurism-Got-Corn-graph-631-thumb.jpg

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#
 
Wait, so a controversial study ends up with the same results/model as a previous controversial study that it was based on, and that's a "warning bell"?

See, shit like that is part of why people tend not to give much regard to studies like this.
 

marrec

Banned
I dont think the problem is fear for GM food, but companies like Monsanto. As long as such companies can exist i too really do not like GM food.

Someone is going to make a profit off of GM foods, but with proper regulation and oversight companies like Monsanto can make a tidy profit while still providing safe and effective product.
 
Wait, so a controversial study ends up with the same results/model as a previous controversial study that it was based on, and that's a "warning bell"?

See, shit like that is part of why people tend not to give much regard to studies like this.

You don't even need a study, just common sense to see that the global economy and the direction the world is going today is fucked and we're headed towards a mountain pile of shit.

We've been going this way for the past few decades and no one is doing a damn thing about it.
 

The Lamp

Member

I'm taking a geography class that covers environmental issues, geopolitics, globalization, population demographics, world agriculture and production, human geography/culture and even some rough global history. My professor works with the local and national governments for Texas/U.S. and England.

After taking this class, there's no way shit isn't going to boil within 20 years. Basket cases in Europe, Africa, and Asia, with their exploding populations, terrible history, and turbulent economies are going to bring the world down with them.

Haiti's TFR is at a stable 4.7 and Niger's is at 7.5, isn't it? Good grief, our generation is in for a world of hurt.

And man, if Greece goes down...all the PIIGS will go down...
 
You don't even need a study, just common sense to see that the global economy and the direction the world is going today is fucked and we're headed towards a mountain pile of shit.

We've been going this way for the past few decades and no one is doing a damn thing about it.

We only change when we have to. Human ingenuity will rise to the challenge, it always does. Nothing to worry about.
 

marrec

Banned
I'm taking a geography class that covers environmental issues, geopolitics, globalization, population demographics, world agriculture and production, human geography/culture and even some rough global history. My professor works with the local and national governments for Texas/U.S. and England.

After taking this class, there's no way shit isn't going to boil within 20 years. Basket cases in Europe, Africa, and Asia, with their exploding populations, terrible history, and turbulent economies are going to bring the world down with them.

Haiti's TFR is at a stable 4.7 and Niger's is at 7.5, isn't it? Good grief, our generation is in for a world of hurt.

And man, if Greece goes down...all the PIIGS will go down...

I'm glad you're an expert on the global economy after taking a class.

I'll direct all my specific questions to you from now on.
 

marrec

Banned
Regardless of this study, I'm not sure if "it'll work itself out" is the best approach to take.

I do trust in human ingenuity, but a reactionary approach to this idea would lead to bad news for some people I think.

There are genuine economic incentives for governments and companies to research and develop green technology so it's going to happen.
 
Probably open war among the classical first world and second world before that, so a WW or similar, with sides being drawn by multiple nations. Resources are tight and tightening without a massive change to our direction of consumption. I hate that it's basically inevitable, but it should make people aware of what they do take for granted now.
 

The Lamp

Member
I'm glad you're an expert on the global economy after taking a class.

I'll direct all my specific questions to you from now on.

I'm not an expert but it's been an enlightening class on what's going on in the world and my professor is incredible. Right now there are a few important issues going on that could trip the global economy fairly quickly, considering the way things are headed. I'm just gonna say I was fairly ignorant about any and all of this until I took this class; it makes me want to take more classes on it.

I mean, there's plenty of things that signal a bright economic future for places like the EU, like Britain's march towards a new stage in deindustrialization, but other factors like Greece and the PIIGS could take it down quickly if their economies collapse. It could go either way, but I wouldn't be surprised if stuff got crazy in 20 years.
 
I want to be on board with these conclusions, but it reeks a little bit of Malthusian hysteria. Like Malthus, it seems like models like these fail miserably at predicting the sort of revolutionary changes in technology that tend to render these projections incorrect. Not that I'm opposed to sustainable development, it just seems like we've been beating this drum for centuries.
That's exactly what it is. That is 18 years from now and I love how it states based on current patterns like they won't change. 18 years ago the Internet was in its infancy, not many people owned cell phones. Things are changing even faster now. This won't happen. Though what will happen is there will be predictions like this in 2030
 
http://media.smithsonianmag.com/images/Futurism-Got-Corn-graph-631-thumb.jpg[IMG]
[URL="http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#"]http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#[/URL][/QUOTE]



In no universe can there be a common Y axis for Industrial Output Per Capita, Population and Pollution Level.
 
I'm not an expert but it's been an enlightening class on what's going on in the world and my professor is incredible. Right now there are a few important issues going on that could trip the global economy fairly quickly, considering the way things are headed. I'm just gonna say I was fairly ignorant about any and all of this until I took this class; it makes me want to take more classes on it.

I mean, there's plenty of things that signal a bright economic future for places like the EU, like Britain's march towards a new stage in deindustrialization, but other factors like Greece and the PIIGS could take it down quickly if their economies collapse. It could go either way, but I wouldn't be surprised if stuff got crazy in 20 years.

I was a finance and economics double major in undergrad. I remember after taking my first few economic classes I thought I had it all figured out…..in reality I was just regurgitating theory from someone that was regurgitating theory from someone else.
 
Probably open war among the classical first world and second world before that, so a WW or similar, with sides being drawn by multiple nations. Resources are tight and tightening without a massive change to our direction of consumption. I hate that it's basically inevitable, but it should make people aware of what they do take for granted now.

Yea I'm expecting this as well. This will probably be the biggest reason why global population drops.
 

Red

Member
I do trust in human ingenuity, but a reactionary approach to this idea would lead to bad news for some people I think.

There are genuine economic incentives for governments and companies to research and develop green technology so it's going to happen.
I agree to a point. I don't subscribe to the "worst case" mentality, but I also disagree with the idea of accepting that success is an inevitability. There's another thread on the first page right now about internships and how unpaid positions exist to exploit workers. I see a connection between this thread and that one. "We'll make it" or "things will get better" is a concept everyone wants to hold, but you can't put blinders on and focus on just that or nothing will improve. Foresight is just as important as confidence is.
 
That's exactly what it is. That is 18 years from now and I love how it states based on current patterns like they won't change. 18 years ago the Internet was in its infancy, not many people owned cell phones. Things are changing even faster now. This won't happen. Though what will happen is there will be predictions like this in 2030

We've been going down this road for a few decades now, no one's doing anything to stop the snowball. I don't see something drastically changing that in the next decade.
 

ruxtpin

Banned
What's going to happen when I leave my house on the day the global economic depression happens?

I'm going to open the door, get on the floor, everybody walk the dinosaur.
 

marrec

Banned
I'm not an expert but it's been an enlightening class on what's going on in the world and my professor is incredible. Right now there are a few important issues going on that could trip the global economy fairly quickly, considering the way things are headed. I'm just gonna say I was fairly ignorant about any and all of this until I took this class; it makes me want to take more classes on it.

I mean, there's plenty of things that signal a bright economic future for places like the EU, like Britain's march towards a new stage in deindustrialization, but other factors like Greece and the PIIGS could take it down quickly if their economies collapse. It could go either way, but I wouldn't be surprised if stuff got crazy in 20 years.

It's great that you want to take more classes and you should, but don't expect to know anything about how complex the global economy is from one 3cr course. I would be extremely surprised if anything like a global population and economic collapse happened in 18 years.
 

The Lamp

Member
I was a finance and economics double major in undergrad. I remember after taking my first few economic classes I thought I had it all figured out…..in reality I was just regurgitating theory from someone that was regurgitating theory from someone else.

I know I don't have it all figured out...but everything I've learned has been backed up with demographics and statistics and research that he has shown us, and my professor recommends us academic sources to check out (and plenty of his own authored books as well) if we want to know more about the subject at the end of every lecture.

Anyway, I'm not here to convince people that I'm an expert on global economies or that my class was anything but an introduction to those issues, but it was a wildly fascinating class and I have an A in it and it's given me an interest in these issues.

And there's a good chance that my professor would lean towards thinking that a global economic collapse won't actually happen in 20 years (but could). He's just presented us with some interesting problems that our generation will have to figure out if we want to avoid things like global economic problems. Hopefully we will work to do that.
 
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