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MIT researchers: If things continue this way, "Global economic collapse" by 2030
- Thread starter shinobi602
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Count Dookkake
Member
Well, at least we can pray all the problems away.
V
Vilix
Unconfirmed Member
Gotta shotgun handy?
Rubbish King
The gift that keeps on giving
everyone owns a different pinkslip and will refuse to give the one they have up till they get their own back.. D:
damn you humanity
Holy shit they got a feature on there explaining the bannings, that's awesome
phosphor112
Banned
I say 2015 will be the downfall, and start of the next World War.
Bookmarking this for future reference.
Bookmarking this for future reference.
Rubbish King
The gift that keeps on giving
do bump when it happens..
"Ha ha Fuck-o I was right all along!"
"I'm also being drafted....
"Smokeydave's got more swag in his little finger than I have in my whole body.
Here_Try_This
Member
Wired: The Doomslayer[/QUOTE]
Just taking a short glance at that wired article, came across this:
"People are becoming more scarce," he says, "even though there are more of us."
As a Layman, i am not sure i can trust this guy any more than MIT's report. that's just a ridiculous thing to say.
According to These Guys around 330 million barrels of oil are used by america to make plastics, pesticides and even SOLAR PANELS. the problem is huge. and i think it's more about CHEAP oil, then it is about running out of oil. seems like we need to reduce our oil consumption by at least 25-30%, even according to mr simon. that sounds do-able.
Just taking a short glance at that wired article, came across this:
"People are becoming more scarce," he says, "even though there are more of us."
As a Layman, i am not sure i can trust this guy any more than MIT's report. that's just a ridiculous thing to say.
According to These Guys around 330 million barrels of oil are used by america to make plastics, pesticides and even SOLAR PANELS. the problem is huge. and i think it's more about CHEAP oil, then it is about running out of oil. seems like we need to reduce our oil consumption by at least 25-30%, even according to mr simon. that sounds do-able.
Something Wicked
Member
Laughably moronic Malthists trying to use the prestige of the MIT brand to perpetuate their simplistic drivel? Ugh...
However, much of the world is on a dire economic course for the 2030s, yet not from current ecological or energy problems, which already have solutions, but from projected massive debt to GDP ratios.
However, much of the world is on a dire economic course for the 2030s, yet not from current ecological or energy problems, which already have solutions, but from projected massive debt to GDP ratios.
orientalNoodle
Banned
I find it laughable when some one is putting others down, baseless or not, while making the same baseless claims themselves.
You mean the new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new iPad.
Something Wicked
Member
We have replacements for oil from the Earth's crust, but the US, UK, France, Germany, and Japan, whose collective economic leverage will be dwarfed by the current developing world in the 2030s, all have unsustainable social entitlement programs.
Here_Try_This
Member
Just curious, What is this crude oil replacement you are talking about? i honestly want to know.
Shale Oil?
takin a quick look at how much it costs just to get that deep stuff,
Oil extraction through deep sea drilling currently costs between $35 and $65 (€27 and €50) per barrel
How much energy (oil) will be used just getting to that "crustal" energy source, versus how much energy you get in return?
trolololo
hydragonwarrior
Member
storafötter;36673146 said:
We'll start caring once there's a way to take our attention away from short term distractions like food, family, friends, going out clubbing, finding a date, playing a video game, sports, surfing the internet, exercise, hobbies, etc.
Some of us do find time to worry about the environment and the future, thankfully. But a good majority of people it's just not on the radar until it can affect us directly and soon (or soon as in now).
SO unless it threatens us the same way as, say, a nearby nuclear power plant is melting down or a hurricane is coming or an earthquake just hit nearby, it'll be difficult to get the masses to throw their weight towards the future.
I just hope I'm proven wrong though lol
Exclamation-One
Member
We are already dead.
All these predictions come under 'based on how we are doing now' because obviously this is all they can go on.
We humans are survivors, when push comes to shove we come up with ingenious ways of sustaining ourselves. It's just unfortunate that most of the time we won't change until we have to.
We will run out of natural resources, but we will have alternatives. Plus we do have a history of having big wars when we suffer a global recession, but because of demand management, cheap labour, globalization and various other things, we have been staving it off, and I'm sure we will keep doing so for some time.
Unfortunately if it comes down to another war we have enough to end our civilization, but if we do end our civilization, you'd have to ask, how civilized were we really?
We humans are survivors, when push comes to shove we come up with ingenious ways of sustaining ourselves. It's just unfortunate that most of the time we won't change until we have to.
We will run out of natural resources, but we will have alternatives. Plus we do have a history of having big wars when we suffer a global recession, but because of demand management, cheap labour, globalization and various other things, we have been staving it off, and I'm sure we will keep doing so for some time.
Unfortunately if it comes down to another war we have enough to end our civilization, but if we do end our civilization, you'd have to ask, how civilized were we really?
Earthstrike
Member
If the graph was looking to compare the results of the studies, couldn't the y-axis simply a normalized valued that doesn't have a unit?
There are distinctions between private sector debt and public sector debt. Not everyone is going into debt at the same time.
Himynameischris
Member
Watching the world end has to be an amazing sight, hopefully I'll be there to share it with everyone!
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
I've been slowly dying since the day I was conceived.
The most worrying thing for population scientist is the K capacity of the human race, and if we can continue to push that capacity up until the world as a whole stabilizes its growth. If not, then yes, we will go through a period of economic collapse and/or war until populations descend back to K capacity levels.
Everything else has the potential to be fixed with technology and war.
Everything else has the potential to be fixed with technology and war.
ThisWreckage
Banned
This coincides with the predictions that the unemployment rate worldwide could be as high as 50% by 2030.
radioheadrule83
Banned
I bet you all anything it would come to war before economic collapse. And I also bet that it would come to social unrest followed by fascist-style lethal authoritarian clamp downs / extremist madness sooner too. The countries either of those things would be more likely to occur in are the ones presently without power / money as well.
jts
...hate me...
Pretty sure there was a thread about this video, but its completely relevant here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ&feature=watch_response It's long so if you're only interested in Energy, start ~ 49:00
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#
astroturfing
Member
after watching the BBC Horizon documentary "Out of Control" last night, about how our subconscious guides us and makes believe/behave in certain ways.. i fear for humanity. it is very obvious that people in general do not take these kinds of dire warnings seriously, until its too late. we are simply programmed to be wishful thinking idiots. we have brains that refuse to take in new information if it contradicts with our hopeful visions of the future. we all do this constantly without even noticing.
this stuff will keep falling on deaf ears until its way too late. sad but most likely true. i would bet on it.
and even though i hate alarmism, sometimes it is needed. i really hope this isnt the time, but i think thats just my subconscious tricking me into wishful thinking...
this stuff will keep falling on deaf ears until its way too late. sad but most likely true. i would bet on it.
and even though i hate alarmism, sometimes it is needed. i really hope this isnt the time, but i think thats just my subconscious tricking me into wishful thinking...
Gouty
Bloodborne is shit
Well yeah. If we reacted to every piece of potential bad news we'd be exhausted and neurotic.
To heed every warning isn't practical.
This stuff will keep falling on deaf ears because in developing nations and classic 1st world nations people have never had it better. Innovations will continue to speed progress and 2030 will come and go with narry a whimper because there is lots of money in not letting the world go to hell in a handbasket.
I put my faith in the greed of humanity.
The fallacy of human ingenuity is an amusing one.
We are the social, cultural, genetic product of millions of years of winners.
Because all the losers are too dead to tell their tales.
That we have been the product of millions of years of winners doesn't exempt us from failure, just as it didn't exempt the lines of millions or billions of other species and cultures that had a good deal of success right up to the point they failed.
The sooner we accept the need for drastic action, the more likely we are to overcome catastrophic collapse.
If this thread, depsite the demographics and the level of knowledge and intelligence on NeoGaf... is any indication... people are going to be oblivious to the signals that sound their demise until the evidence is so blindingly obvious that they'll be dead soon thereafter.
I mean... consider for a moment, if you don't accept the premise and argument of what is been discussed in the report - at what level of evidence are you willing to accept its premise and argument? And what are you doing to procure such evidence? Do you need to actually record temperature highs month after month after month, for 36+ months straight?
Do you need to see reports of increasing crop failures and widespread famine?
How about reports of things that lead up to crop failures, like bees dying off? Is that evidence too tenuous for you?
By the time you see the evidence with your limited vision, with your short term, immediacy focused brain, beyond your well honed ability to obfuscate the information... well... as kenshiro says: You are already dead.
We are the social, cultural, genetic product of millions of years of winners.
Because all the losers are too dead to tell their tales.
That we have been the product of millions of years of winners doesn't exempt us from failure, just as it didn't exempt the lines of millions or billions of other species and cultures that had a good deal of success right up to the point they failed.
The sooner we accept the need for drastic action, the more likely we are to overcome catastrophic collapse.
If this thread, depsite the demographics and the level of knowledge and intelligence on NeoGaf... is any indication... people are going to be oblivious to the signals that sound their demise until the evidence is so blindingly obvious that they'll be dead soon thereafter.
I mean... consider for a moment, if you don't accept the premise and argument of what is been discussed in the report - at what level of evidence are you willing to accept its premise and argument? And what are you doing to procure such evidence? Do you need to actually record temperature highs month after month after month, for 36+ months straight?
Do you need to see reports of increasing crop failures and widespread famine?
How about reports of things that lead up to crop failures, like bees dying off? Is that evidence too tenuous for you?
By the time you see the evidence with your limited vision, with your short term, immediacy focused brain, beyond your well honed ability to obfuscate the information... well... as kenshiro says: You are already dead.
Gouty
Bloodborne is shit
ElectricBlue187
Member
Civilization has been on the brink of collapse since it began. Never has that been less true than today.
astroturfing
Member
greed of humanity = everyone wants to eat meat, everyone wants a smartphone, everyone wants a car etc = impossible.
there just isnt enough resources for everyone to live like the average American or European. and that is going to cause a lot of problems, unless.. we become less greedy.
or of course we westerners can try to just straight up deny these luxuries from most of the world population when they really start demanding them. good luck against China and India though..
i REALLY hope im just talking out of my ass here and that you are right though.
radioheadrule83
Banned
That comic applies well to analyst expectations of PS3, but I don't think it applies very well to that study.. the post you quoted is disconcerting in that the facts of present day seem to overlap ominously, albeit with slight variances, with the 70s study.. I hope its wrong as much as anyone.
But there is incentive in having a very small group of people living extremely well above average that make their money off other people trying to join that very small group. Whether it's a developing nation or America. There is no incentive for people to share in a sustainable way, so the extremely well above average people will find a way to continue driving the current model.
These types of simulations have an inherent bias against greed, when really it should be factored in as a plus for humanity.
ManDudeChild
Member
Another fun thing about our species is that we need to know. If we don't know we'll guess. We like to jazz up our guesses with data and make predictions. Fact is, while we're likely in for some rough times ahead, our ability to actually predict where things are going is quite limited. The fact the study involved MIT is the only reason we're discussing this, as there have been doomsday dates assigned and passed in decades gone by. I'm not saying it's all bullshit, but certainly to be taken with a grain of salt in the grand scheme of things.
Alarmism by its very definition alone is never needed. It causes drastic, often short-sighed action that usually amounts to creating new fun problems ... which we can get alarmist about and then act rashly again. The human experience is cyclical for a reason, and that is the pattern we must break for any meaningful change that isn't just more of the same.
Beerman462
Member
It can only go up hill from there.
TNG Encounter at Far point trial
Unregistered007
Banned
did you preorder PS4 and 720?
Their model is so complex it cannot be tested within the timeframe anyone cares about.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
We rebuild. We adapt and react. We're pretty good at that if you look at history.
Why the hell am I thinking about the Matrix?
Why the hell am I thinking about the Matrix?
speculawyer
Member
So you only collect 10 to 18% of something that IS COMPLETELY FREE AND DOESN'T POLLUTE AT ALL! Useless? LOL.
The efficiency number doesn't matter at all. The only thing that matters is how much it costs to produce the electricity. And it is still a bit pricey. But if you install it yourself and compare to retail electricity prices . . . it is very effective.
speculawyer
Member
A big problem with the innovation argument is that people seem to forget that innovation is caged in by the laws of physics and the laws of thermodynamics.
I'm certainly we will invent many new amazing things. But a lof things that people seem to think will happen just won't because they can't. We have this lie we like believe about the 'developing world' as if they are just a little behind and in a few years they'll catch up on development and each family will have a house in the suburbs and two cars. Not going to happen. There are not enough resources on the planet to implement that with current technology. Perhaps we can do it by inventing some new technology and lowering standards. But the rest of the world cannot be brought up to US/European standards of living.
A house in the suburbs and two cars are not necessary to match or exceed the US's standard of living. That's how things are done in America because resources are cheap and plentiful, but you could achieve a similarly high standard of living in other ways.
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