The Yankees have a puncher's chance to make it into the next round vs the Royals in the ALDS; to do so, they'll have to:
1. Work Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel is a lefty that has dominant stuff when it's low; when he's on (which he has been for much of this season), you'll be haplessly beating balls into the dirt when you aren't swinging and missing. Their best chance of beating him is making him throw pitches and challenging him to go deep into the game on short rest. He's thrown the most IP of his career, this is his first and biggest start yet - can the Yankees get him out of the game in 6 innings?
2. Tanaka has to have his ace stuff Tuesday
Tanaka is likely not getting high run support - he's going to need to have his best stuff and shut down the Astros' powerful core bats in Springer, Gattis, Correa and Altuve. Can he limit the HRs and keep his pitches consistently low and away to those guys? If he can do so and pitch long into the game, he can get it to the Yankees killer pen.
3. Veteran hitters need veteran performances
Since Mark Teixeira got hurt in August, the Yankees offense sputtered. They rely heavily on timely HRs to do big damage, and they'll need to do this once again. Can Beltran keep his resurgence going? Can A-Rod summon a 2009 postseason once again? Can Ellsbury and Gardner get on base consistently? Can McCann deliver with RISP? Can Headley not totally suck? If the Yankees can get on the board early, it would go a long way in making this a winnable game.
4. Young hitters need to rise to the occasion
Greg Bird has been excellent in place of Mark Teixeira, swinging a surprisingly powerful bat as a rookie. Rob Refsnyder's been pretty good in his little time here. Can these guys put some spark in the offense in a do-or-die game? Keuchel didn't see really them before - maybe they can get to him where the other hitters couldn't?
5. The pen
If the Astros strike early/often, it's not going to matter much...but if the Yankees can keep the game close or take a lead and get Keuchel out of the game, the Andrew Miller/Dellin Betances tandem can close the game out. If Tanaka is shaky or they need extra help, Adam Warren and Justin Wilson can get extra innings.
It's going to be hard to win this game...but that's why they play the games rather than just talk about them. Dallas Keuchel is an ace of aces in the AL this year...but he's pitching on very short rest, pitching on the road, pitching in the cold, and pitching as the front man of a team that hasn't been to the postseason before. The Astros are a powerful team, having hit a ton of HRs (second only to the Blue Jays, and almost 20 more than the Yankees) - but the Yankees have great power too, and also had more hits, had a higher team avg, a higher OBP, and more RBI than the Astros.
This game is on Ellsbury/Gardner (or Chris Young, if he plays instead of the lefty Gardner) to get on base to make it easier to Bird/A-Rod/McCann/Beltran/Headley to get runs in. This game is on the bottom of the order in Gregorius/Headley/Refsnyder to take advantage when they get opportunities. This game is on Tanaka to pitch deep into the game.
...man, fuck all this punditry. We got the Centaur; game's in the bag.