5. Kolby Allard, LHP
DOB: 08/13/1997
Height/Weight: 61 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 14th overall in the 2015 MLB Draft, San Clemente HS (San Clemente, CA); signed for $3.0424 million
Previous Ranking(s): No. 8 in MLB Draft top 125 prospects
2015 Stats: 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 12 K at Gulf Coast League
Future Tools: 60 fastball, 60 curveball, 55 command
Role: 55No. 3 starter
You could argue that with the addition of Newcomb and the selection of Allard, the Braves picked up the pitching steals of the last two drafts: one scout called Allard a Brady Aiken starter kit. Thats a good thing. Allard would have gone much higher if not for a stress reaction in his back, but he appeared plenty healthy in his limited time in the Gulf Coast League. His four-seam fastball sits 91-93, topping out at 96, but it plays up because of how easy the delivery is. The curveball is another plus offeringthe best curveball I saw from a prep last seasonand its tight spin and two-plane break make it a put-away pitch. Hes still gaining feel for the change, but he has improved his arm slot and has added deception .thanks to plus arm speed, and the aforementioned repeatable delivey helps him throw strikes with all three offerings.
The only question marks are size and health. Back injuries are a son-of-a-you-know-what, and because he doesnt have prototypical size, there are already concerns about whether he can handle 180-200 innings. Still, with a chance for three 60 tools, theres an awful lot to like here, and it shouldnt shock anyone if hes a top-50 prospect in 2017.
Fantasy Impact: The upside for Allard is high enough that its almost tempting to take him over Blair right now (that said, it may not be long before thats the right move). He should be the first prep pitcher off the board in dynasty league drafts this off-season and makes for a really strong early second round pick (or late first in a deep league).
Major league ETA: 2019
6. Touki Toussaint, RHP
DOB: 06/20/1996
Height/Weight: 63 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 16th overall by Arizona in the 2014 MLB Draft, Coral Springs Christian Academy (Coral Springs, FL); signed for $2.7 million; acquired by Atlanta in deal for Phil Gosselin.
Previous Ranking(s): #4 (Org., Diamondbacks)
2015 Stats: 4.83 ERA, 87.2 IP, 71 H, 48 BB, 67 K at Low-A Kane County and Low-A Rome
Future Tools: 70 fastball, 60 curveball
Role: 50+Mid-rotation starter/high-leverage reliever
In 10 years, the most shocking thing might be how little the Braves had to give up to get one of the most talented right arms weve seen: Bronson Arroyo wasnt even owed all that much. But for taking on the rest of his contract, the Braves got a guy whose electric stuff is led by a hard four-seam fastball that can get up to 97 mph and features explosive life. His curveball is often his best pitch, with two planes of break and silly amounts of spin. Unfortunately it moves so much that it is rarely a strike, so hitters looking for it will get themselves a free ball. The change is still in the developmental stages with a noticeable drop in arm slot. Given the rest of the arsenal, however, he need only mold it into a fringe-average compliment in order to stay in a rotation.
Toussaints command, however, may have other ideas about his future role. He struggles to repeat a delivery that consistently appears to be in a rush, and when he isnt missing the zone entirely, hes wild within it. If hes moved to the bullpen he could be Tom Gordon, but if he can stay in the rotation, he could be Tom Gordon.
Fantasy Impact: Pray for content. Settle for free rent. If youre a Toussaint owner, your fingers are constantly crossed that the light will flip and hell step forward to an SP2 ceiling. However, with a high-end relief (and likely closer) floor, there should be some payoff at the end of this journey. He could be a 200-plus strikeout starter with a WHIP in excess of 1.30.
Major league ETA: 2018
7. Mike Soroka, RHP
DOB: 08/04/1997
Height/Weight: 64 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 28th overall in the 2015 MLB Draft, Bishop Carroll HS (Calgary, AB); signed for $1.9747 million
Previous Ranking(s): No. 77 in MLB Draft top 125 prospects
2015 Stats: 3.18 ERA, 34 IP, 33 H, 5 BB, 37 K at Gulf Coast League and short-season Danville
Future Tools: 60 fastball, 55 change
Role: 50+Mid-rotation starter
When the Braves selected Soroka in the bottom of the first round, I thought it was a fairly significant reach. Heres my mea culpa: Im an idiot. The Canadian right-hander was very impressive as a pro, with one scout saying he looked like the best pitcher in the Atlanta system in 2015. Theres still some projection left, but his 90-92 mph fastball with good plane is already a plus pitch, and hell reach 94. The arm speed and fade also make his change a borderline plus pitch, and he can locate it for strikes or bury it out of the zone. The curveball has taken major strides: A pitch some had as a 40 in high school now routinely flashes average, and theres just enough depth to keep hitters off the other two offerings. He repeats his arm slot and delivery as well as you can for an 18-year-old, and though the command will never be elite, its good enough to start.
The sample size of the curve is small, but theres a chance Soroka becomes 60-60-50, and that would make him a no. 3 starter.
Fantasy Impact: Pitchers without high ceilings who have yet to pitch in full season ball are just one big collective yawn to most dynasty leaguers. Those in deep leagues could take a shot on him using his strong start as a jumping off point to increased trade value, but given the depth of the 2015 class (from a fantasy sense), he profiles as a late-round pick.
Major league ETA: 2019
8. Austin Riley, 3B
DOB: 04/02/1997
Height/Weight: 63 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 41st overall in the 2015 MLB Draft, DeSoto Central HS (Southaven, MS); signed for $1.6 million
Previous Ranking(s): Unranked
2015 Stats: .304/.389/.544, 12 HR, 2 SB at Gulf Coast League and short-season Danville
Future Tools: 60 power, 60 arm, 50+ hit
OFP: 50+Above-average regular at third base
Well, this certainly qualifies as a surprise. Most of the scouts I spoke with before last years draft thought Riley profiled best as a pitcher. The Braves saw a hitter, and in a limited sample it appears they may just be on to something. His impressive combination of bat speed and strength give him plus power from the right side, with a chance for more as he fills out his frame. This is not your typical swing for the fences hitter either, as Riley commands the strike zone well. The length of the swing creates some contact issues, but he stays through the zone well enough to project a potential above-average hit tool.
Defensively, Riley has more than enough arm strength to handle third basehe was clocked in the mid-90s during his senior seasonbut the rest of the defensive profile isnt ideal. Hes a below-average runner, doesnt have elite range, and his hands are only okay. That could mean a move across the diamond, dropping his value precipitously. If he can stay at third, this is a potential all-star, with as much offensive upside as any prospect in the system.
Fantasy Impact: Now heres where we have some fun. Riley has tons of potential at the platein fact, his fantasy ceiling is probably the highest in this entire system. The glimmer of hope for a .270 hitting third baseman with near 30-homer power is exciting, even if he does come with a very long lead time and some positional risk.
Major league ETA: 2018
9. Max Fried, LHP
DOB: 07/30/1993
Height/Weight: 64 185 lbs
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted seventh overall by San Diego in the 2012 MLB Draft, Harvard-Westlake School (Los Angeles, CA); signed for $3 million; Acquired in deal for Craig Kimbrel
Previous Ranking(s): Unranked
2015 Stats: DNP
Future Tools: 60 fastball, 60 curve
Role: 50mid-rotation starter
Fried missed all of the 2015 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, so this is a somewhat risky rankingif you believe these things can be risky, anyway.
When healthy, Fried shows impressive stuff, led by two- and four-seam fastballs that will hit 96 mph and sit comfortably in the low 90s with downhill plane. His curveball also flashes plus, with solid spin and hard downward break, but he hasnt thrown it for strikes as often as he did in high school. The same can be said of his average change. His smooth delivery lacks much effort, which certainly wont hurt his attempts to avoid future injury. We never know how a guy will recover from Tommy John, but if he comes back looking like the same guy we saw as a prep and for most of 2014, hell shoot up this list and contribute to the Braves rotation in the coming seasons.
Fantasy Impact: Ive long been an advocate for Fried, and how much that continues depends on how the stuff looks when he returns this year. If he carries the same ceiling, its an SP2/SP3 peak, not too far off from what Newcomb is capable of with a little more in the ratios and a little less in the whiffs. Were just in a holding pattern for now.
Major league ETA: 2018
10. Lucas Sims, RHP
DOB: 05/10/1994
Height/Weight: 62 225 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 21st overall in the 2012 MLB draft, Brookwood HS (Snellville, GA); signed for $1.65 million
Previous Ranking(s): #1 (Org.)
2015 Stats: 4.37 ERA, 92.2 IP, 75 H, 54 BB, 100 K at Gulf Coast League, High-A Carolina and Double-A Mississippi
Future Tools: 70 fastball, 60 curve, 50+ change
Role: 50Back-end starter/high-leverage reliever
You may recall that Sims was listed in my Say Something Im Giving Up On You article to end the 2015 season. He said something: In the Arizona Fall League, I saw a right-hander with two borderline plus-plus pitches. He can get his four-seamer up to 97 with mild run and decent plane. He paired it with a nasty curveball with good depth and spin that made a couple of hitters look silly. His change has quality movement with deception, but its so rarely in the strike zone that its hard to call it more than an average offering at this point.
As impressive as the stuff is, Sims control and command both leave a lot to be desired. Its not a case of failing to repeat the delivery, but more a question of feel; he creates too much self-inflicted damage to project as more than a back-end starter. If he starts throwing more quality strikes he could become a no. 2, but theres no evidence he can do that at this point, and the bullpen is very much a realistic landing spot.
Fantasy Impact: If youre into name recognition and risk, Sims might just be your guy. He has enough still in that arm to profile as a mixed league starter with a step forward or two, but were getting close to the point where hell be drop-worthy in leagues that roster 250 prospects if that doesnt happen at some point in 2016.
Major league ETA: 2017
Five who are just interesting:
Mallex Smith, OF Smith is a true 80 runner who is a threat to steal a baseor twoanytime he reaches. The question has always been whether or not he can get on base enough to put that speed to use, but hes made progress over the past few years, shortening the swing and making more consistent hard contact. His diminutive frame and linear swing path give him no chance for power, and theres a frustrating amount of swing-and-miss for someone who should be focusing on putting the ball in play to make use of his speed. He also takes questionable routes in the outfield and possesses a below-average throwing arm, so sticking in center field isnt a lock. But running fast is running fast, and theres a great chance Smith shows up as a competent fourth outfielder in Atlanta as soon as next year.
John Gant, RHP Gant was acquired by Atlanta in the trade that sent Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson away, and the former 21st-round pick settled in nicely. The right-hander doesnt have an overpowering fastballsitting 89-91, with some sinkbut he gets downhill from his 6-foot-5 frame. He gets that same sink on a solid-average change, and hell throw both pitchesand an average curveballfor strikes with improving command. The upside is somewhat limited, but Gant is as likely as any name here to be pitching in the rotation this summer.
Mauricio Cabrera, RHP The Braves made the decision to move Cabrera to the bullpen, and while the stat line illustrates how much work the 21-year-old needs, there are flashes of brilliance that suggest he can become a dominant reliever. His fastball is a double-plus offering that has been clocked in the triple-digits, and he complements it with an above-average slider with enough hard tilt to spin hitters around when theyre sitting on the heater. Hell also show a fringe-average change, though that pitch might get scrapped as he advances through the system. If he can figure out where his two best pitches are going, Cabrera could become a future closer. If he cant, hell be an up-and-down reliever.
Johan Camargo, SS Camargo doesnt have a standout tool, but as a shortstop with a chance for four average tools he does have an outside shot to become a starter someday. He controls the strike zone and uses the whole field from both sides of the plate, and his short swing allows him to make consistent contact. That contact isnt always the hardest, as Camargos frame is slight and the lack of loft to his swing essentially eliminates any chance for power. Theres work to be done defensively, but he has the athleticism to stay in the middle infield and his plus throwing arm gives him a chance to play the majority of his career at shortstop. The upside here is bottom-of-the-order hitter who helps you with the glove; a floor as a quality bench bat with utility is valuable, too.
Zachary Bird, RHP Bird was acquired from the Dodgers in the Hector Olivera/Alex Wood deal in July, and while he doesnt have the talent of those names he does have a chance to become a big-league pitcher. The impressive arm strength that made him intriguing as a prep now allows him to consistently hit the high 90s with some sink. Hell show a solid-average slider with hard tilt, and a softer curveball and change. Neither of the latter pitches grade as average yet, and the control and command are not where they need to be. If the command does take a step forward, theres back-end starting potential in Birds right arm, with high-leverage relief also a possibility.
Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/90 or later)
1.Ender lnciarte
2.Julio Teheran
3.Dansby Swanson
4.Sean Newcomb
5.Ozhaino Albies
6.​Aaron Blair
7.Jace Peterson
8.Arodys Vizcaino
9.Matt Wisler
10.Kolby Allard
First, a moment of silence for those lost in the pursuit of the Next Great Braves Team. Since last years list went live in November of 2014, Jason Heyward (no. 1 that year), Alex Wood (no. 4), and Andrelton Simmons (no. 5) have been shipped out of town, leading to much ink-and-paper handwringing among the Atlanta commentariat and also to their absence from this list. The only other big-league player on last years list not eligible for consideration in 2016 is Freddie Freeman (no. 2), who, despite his many other virtues, turned 26 in September, making him an Old Man and not worthy of further discussion here.
Do you feel appropriately solemn yet? Well, stop it, because theres an embarrasingly rich collection of talent up for consideration here, headlined by new number one in Inciarte. The industry consensuswhich Im happy to contribute tois that the Braves fleeced the Diamondbacks good and proper in acquiring Inciarte (alongside Swanson and Blair) in exchange for Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier. Thats partly on the strength of Swanson and Blairs potential, which youve already read about, but also on the back of Inciartes actual, honest-to-god performance in 2015, which made him the most valuable Diamondback not named Paul Goldschmidt or A.J. Pollock and one of the very best center fielders in baseball.
The problem with Inciarte, insofar as there is a problem, is the lack of a track record, and the degree to which his performance is driven by a sterling but possibly unsustainable defensive record (hes at a +27.4 FRAA over the last two years) and a largely power-free offensive profile. If Inciarte puts up another season like his 2015, hell be on lists like this until hes too old to feature. If his knocks find fewer holes in 2016, though, or he loses a step in the outfield, hell have to prove himself all over again in 2017. For now, though, Im impressed enough with a 4.1 WARP season as a 24-year-old position player that Ill put him just above Teheran, who may never reach his potential but whos pretty darn good nonetheless.
A quartet of brilliant prospects follow the two big-leaguers, followed by a trio with intriguing upside, moderate present value, and second-half-of-the-alphabet last names (Im a fan). Peterson I rank behind Blair because Blair, at his best, could be a pretty good big-league starter and Peterson, who appears to be somewhere near his best, is a relatively ok big-league infielder. Thats not a bad thing to beremember, this is a good list in generalbut if I was forced to pick one of the two (for the record: Im not) Id take the high-floor mid-rotation starter over the low-ceiling second-division infielder. So I did.
Vizcaino, whos been racking up Delta SkyMiles shuttling between Atlanta and Chicago for the past few years, is a tantalizing case. Hes always had talentjust take a gander at some of his BP Annual comments over the yearsbut hes consistently struggled to put it together when hes on the mound, which hasnt been that often over the last few years. He remains on this list because the upside is so darn high, but each passing year he fails to break out is progressively more damaging to his case for inclusion.
Wisler had some previously unknown command issues in the second half last year and likely profiles as no more than a mid-rotation starter. That (and Ive used this phrase before) is not a bad thing to be at all, and it gets him a place right above Allard, who might one day be what Wisler is now, but doesnt get him past the hope and dream that is Vizcaino. In a year, though? Braves fans may be happier to have Wisler than Vizcaino on their roster. Heck, they might be at that point right now.
The broader point, though, is that fans should be happy they have both, and those that come after them: talent like Shae Simmons, Paco Rodriguez, and all the prospects you just read about. The Next Great Braves Team has already claimed some victims, sure, but its got some victories in its future as well. - Rian Watt
The Executives
General Manager: John Coppolella
Director, Scouting: Brian Bridges
Director, Player Development: Dave Trembley
Special Assistant to the General Manager: Roy Clark
Outside of perhaps the Cardinals, there is no team that has done a better job over the past 25 years with player development than the Bravesparticularly with pitching and the middle prospects. Not all of that is due to continuitythere have been plenty of changes in that time frame but theyve also promoted from within a great deal, and that has helped keep a consistent process in the organization. Despite rarely spending massive amounts of cash on international free agents, and usually picking in the middle or back of the first round, they find a way to consistently churn out productive players, a reason you dont see many Braves prospects bust.
Im slightly biased, but even if i didnt call Kiley McDaniel a friend, Id call him a tremendous addition to the front office as the Assistant Director of Baseball Operations. There are few people Ive spoken with who do a better job scouting the draft, and hell be a big help to an already strong scouting department that includes Bridges and Roy Clark. Clarks is recognized as one of the most respected Scouting Directors of the 2000s, having led the drafts that saw Atlanta procure Brian McCann, Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, and others
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