Wrote a phenomenal essay about the decline of the Ultimate for yall, friends.
As the UFC approaches its 20th anniversary, it is in a unique situation, not at all unlike pro wrestling.
It is financially on stronger footing than at almost any time in its history, but it is hard to ignore the signs of a decline in domestic popularity. The historical ups-and-downs that the more Wild Wild West versions of Brazilian Vale Tudo and the Japanese game have shown historically cant be ignored, even if economics today and roots are very different and seem to guarantee the sport being around at a significant level for the long haul.
In the case of both, there is a situation regarding the future as if escalating television rights fees can keep the piggy banks strong if the traditional revenue streams and measures of popularity start to weaken.
UFC has shown some softness in recent months on PPV, but the real state of what has historically been the revenue stream that carries the company wont really be known until early next year. If the next two shows dont do well, there is a problem. Nearly all predictions months ago when the last four months schedule was put together were that the company would have one of the most, if not, the most successful PPV period in its history.
With two shows down and one a few days away, there has to be concern. A show headlined by Jon Jones, thought to be the companys third biggest star and best rising star, did maybe 325,000 buys, when hed nearly headlined to less than 415,000 before. There were excuses as to why that was the case, including opponent Alexander Gustafsson not having much of a buzz about him nor did most give him a chance. But I dont know that anybody had given most of Jones previous foes a chance. More concerning was the 10/19 show with Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos only beating that number by a slim margin, because it was the heavyweight championship and a battle between the two best heavyweights in company history who had split their two previous bouts. Plus the show had a strong undercard.
Saturdays 20th anniversary show features Georges St-Pierre, the top PPV draw, against a very legitimate top contender in Johny Hendricks. But interest in the fight doesnt seem close to the level of St-Pierres most recent fight with Nick Diaz. Then again, it would have been almost impossible for it to be. The 12/28 show is one that should do 1 million buys, and Dana White is pushing that itll set the companys all-time record. That would feel like a longshot right now. With the softness of recent shows, what looked like something that should be a lock is far from it. Even if both shows do big numbers, that doesnt mean overall business is at that level.
This year, as compared with 2011 and 2012, will almost surely end up ahead in PPV. But that isnt a strengthening of PPV at all, but more this year has had far fewer big show main events destroyed by injuries.
Where one has to be concerned is on the ratings front. Numbers in Brazil, even for the big fights with Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort, are way down from the peak in 2011. In the United States, UFC has been hurt of late by being on a network that is new and struggling out of the box, even though its consistently a strong performer based on the standards of the station.
But this comparison shows the situation. In January, a Vitor Belfort vs. Michael Bisping fight from Brazil on FX did 1.86 million viewers, setting UFCs record on the station. Things looked like they had finally gotten untracked the early part of this year after a ratings decline on cable from 2011 to 2012 with the move from Spike. On 11/9, the same Belfort faced Dan Henderson, also from Brazil. In theory, Bisping and Henderson should be relatively close in drawing power. Henderson is more of a legend, but Bisping is a good talker, and thats clearly important to garnering interest in a fight.
But even if Bisping has the marquee edge, the numbers should be in the same ballpark for each fight. So a nearly equivalent fight on FS 1, ten months later, did 722,000 viewers, a decline of 61%. You can immediately explain about 9% of that drop as due to FS 1 being in fewer households. The rest of the drop is largely the station, and some may be a UFC decline in popularity, and stiffer competition from all the college football. But thats still a staggering figure.
UFC numbers show just how important things like the strength of the station are for its product. Conversely, WWE has moved stations for Raw twice and Smackdown multiple times with only slight ratings volatility. It also has shown that for its product, what the value of a staggered feed as opposed to going live on the West Coast, which is also the case with WWE, but not with other sports. The numbers do point to the idea that the loyalty factor of the fan base to the product is more volatile than most would expect. For years it has been the case, like with boxing, that it is a star-driven business, but UFC also had a strong bottom line base that even a weaker marquee show was guaranteed to draw. Its that number that has declined greatly. Over the next two months well see how much, if any, that top-end number may have declined. When the decline is sudden, there are only two factors in play. The first is a severe and drastic weakening of the product, like WCW went through in 1999. That is clearly not the case here. The big cards have been strong. While not every show is a home run, and in a real sport that is impossible, by and large the shows have been very good. So the declines have to largely be attributed to the growing pains of a new station. And in theory, if that station grows in importance, UFC should grow with it. But still, it has to be concerning that half or more of the previous audience wasnt into the product at a level to find it with the move from really only a few months ago.
NFL ratings show huge differences depending on the station the games are on, as do that of every major sport, and virtually any television show. WWE is the exception.
But no matter how you slice it, when prelims before the big PPV shows are doing half as many viewers as they were six months ago, the trickle down effect when it comes to buys shouldnt be a big surprise. In addition, the key to growth and sustenance at current levels of overall popularity is the visibility and popularity of the next generation of viewers. If the show itself is not a hit with teenagers and young adults, and not on a station they regularly watch, long-term, it looks like a situation where they may take in more money on rights fees and be bottom line healthy, but it is not optimum for building the brand. Unlike with Spike and FX, the UFCs future growth is not tied in with its own show quality, star-making ability and promotional capability, because when the greatest Countdown programming in the world is drawing 125,000 viewers, inherently, it is not moving the needle no matter what the content is. Their popularity is instead, tied to whether or not the television station they are on takes off. FS 1 is expected to bid for and get more big-time major league sports, which would up its profile. But that isnt happening this month, or next, and at best this period looks like a fairly long period of growing pains. At worse, real damage is done. And as noted from the start, historically isnt guaranteed to repeat itself, but it also should never be ignored as a learning tool, because most often, it does.
MMA, or Vale Tudo, under previous ownership, whether it was the United States first success in the mid-90s, Brazilian hot periods in the 20s and 50s, and the Japan boom in the early 00s, all had something in common. Things go really big for a few years, but they dont sustain. Now, there has never been the kind of television financial backbone of revenue, both in the U.S. and Brazil, like now. Its not some local promoters looking for one big match and a score. This is a major worldwide company, with the ability to garner television deals and make major business partnerships.
But still, of the 1.86 million who saw Belfort beat Bisping ten months ago, you would think more than 39% of them would be loyal enough to find what was a strong marquee name value main event ten months later if it moved stations.
Even though UFC is 20, it has not proven the test of time. From 1997 through 2004, it was being propped up by companies who knew about the good days and thought if they could just get the right break, it would happen again. The second boom, which kicked off in 2005 and really hit in late 2006 in a huge way, was created by television and booking fights that people wanted to see. From 2008 to 2010,the company grew due to some great drawing champions like Brock Lesnar, St-Pierre, B.J. Penn, Anderson Silva and assorted grudge matches and characters on the periphery like Rampage Jackson, Rashad Evans, Forrest Griffin and Chael Sonnen.
Most of those names are older, and many are not around today. Nobody new has captured the interest of the public like the champions of three years ago did. And there is a real question as to whether this season of Ultimate Fighter hasnt damaged the drawing power of the one major star they had created this year in Ronda Rousey. Again, these statements right now about a decline in popularity sound silly because the next two shows should do great, and will both be among the largest live gates in history.
The plethora of shows has created an environment where the vast majority of fans are skipping most shows, or dont know about them even with more mainstream media giving coverage. This past week were two live events. On 11/6, Fight for the Troops from Fort Campbell, KY did 641,000 viewers for a show with limited star power. Three nights later, from Goiania, Brazil, on the more familiar Saturday night, a show with a strong marquee main event for television in Belfort vs. Henderson did 722,000 viewers. We already know the number of shows will continue to increase, with plans on greatly increasing international events in 2014.
The 20th anniversary show on 11/16 doesnt feel like it has anywhere close to the momentum of UFC 100. Its got a strong lineup on paper, starting at 7 p.m. with the Facebook prelims with Cody Donovan vs. Gian Villante and Will Campuzano against the debuting Sergio Pettis, the 20-year-old brother of lightweight champion Anthony Pettis.
FS 1 will air two hours of prelims at 8 p.m. with Edwin Figueroa vs. Erik Perez, Brian Ebersole vs. Rick Story, Thales Leitis vs. Ed Herman and Donald Cerrone vs. Evan Dunham.
The PPV show at 10 p.m. has Ali Bagautinov vs. Timothy Elliott, Josh Koscheck vs. Tyron Woodley, Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler Chael Sonnen vs. Rashad Evans and GSP vs. Johny Hendricks for the welterweight title.
Both shows this week were strong. Fight for the Troops, the UFC equivalent of WWEs Tribute to the Troops show, saw an octagon cage put in a hanger on an air force base. When the show started, in this little hall, with it raining on the outside and the doors open, it at first looked like something that would look bad for television. But that wasnt the case. The crowd of about 4,000, all clad in uniform, was almost a perfect crowd. They were enthusiastic and appreciative. The fighters sensed that and responded in kind. It seemed like everyone was trying to put on the best fights, as a show with few big names was loaded with excitement.
In Brazil, Belfort drew a sellout of 10,565 fans that were hot in a very different way. They were loud, but they would boo when things were slow, or when their favorite was not doing well, or even when things went to the ground. But they saw an amazing show where only two of 11 fights went the distance and seven ended in the first round.
Not a lot on the shows affected the main event and title picture much. The Fight for the Troops really only had big crowd favorite Liz Carmouche seemingly not her usual self in losing a decision to Alexis Davis.
Carmouche, a former Marine, usually does well by being aggressive and using her physical strength to dominate on the ground. In this fight, she wasnt aggressive at all, and seemed content to stay on the outside and lose the striking battle.
The star of the show and headliner, Tim Kennedy, a decorated Army Special Forces sniper, had no business fighting after tearing his quadriceps a week earlier in a freak accident. He was sprinting on the track in his final hard day of training when a woman, who he thought was between 60 and 65, out of nowhere jumped into his path. He said he had two choices, to either run her over or put on the breaks immediately. He did the latter and collapsed. He faced Rafael Natal with one leg, and he also was clearly not himself. Worse, he was getting leg kicked over and over until he landed a left to the jaw of Natal and the servicemen exploded as he got the finish and got regular rotation coverage the next day on Sports Center. If he had not landed that perfect punch, it looked like it was going to be a long and painful night.
In Brazil, the star was Belfort, who knocked Henderson skyward before gravity took him back down with a left uppercut. Henderson, never stopped by strikes in his long career, got to his feet and was met with an immediate head kick and put down again.
For Belfort, it broke any logjam there may have been over who is the top contender for the winner of the Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva fight. Even Silva, who beat Belfort in early 2011, and was adamant about not fighting him again, admitted Belfort earned the next title shot.
For Henderson, the circumstances are a lot different. It was the final fight of his contract. Hes 43 years old and has lost his last three fights, although he was competitive in losing close decisions to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans, before this knockout. But he has a high dollar contract, as it was the final fight of the deal he signed with Strikeforce. He was not a big draw when he was winning, and his fight with Evans was the lowest drawing PPV the company has put on in years.
I dont sense Henderson could headline a PPV now, although he could headline a TV show, although hes not a ratings draw. If he was cut, one would think Bellator would pick him up just for the name value.
On the Wednesday show, the $50,000 bonuses went to Kennedy for best knockout, Michael Chiesa for best submission, and Rustam Khabilov vs. Jorge Masvidal for best fight. That show had plenty of good fights but I thought the best was either Yancy Medeiros win over Yves Edwards, Michael Chiesa vs. Colton Smith or Dennis Bermudez vs. Steven Siler.
On Saturday, Belfort got best knockout, Adriano Martins got best submission and the debuting Omari Akhmedov vs. Thiago Perpetuo got best fight, all with $50,000 bonuses.