We'll have a better idea when there's a release date as "2025" is quite vague. If it's the first few months I'd agree with you, but for all we know it could be December which means they have a loooong way to go.
As hard as they're pushing it right now, and given how Capcom normally does things, it would be highly, highly irregular if this wasn't coming out by early 2025.
In other words, if Capcom had a major AAA coming that was planned to be released earlier than MH Wilds, they'd be pushing that right now instead.
World was announced in June 2017, released January 2018, a super tight marketing cycle. Being they announced Wilds a bit earlier, the marketing will be more like 12-15 months this time around, but that would still put it out by March 2025.