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NBC News: U.S. May Launch Strike If North Korea Reaches For Nuclear Trigger

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Joe

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CSIS compared data between North Korea provocations and South Korea elections and it suggests that a NK provocation is possible between April 25 and May 9.

http://beyondparallel.csis.org/rok-elections-and-dprk-provocations/

  • Under Kim Jong-un, the average window for a North Korean provocation bracketed around all ROK elections is 6.5 days (about 1 week). The average for presidential elections is 15 days or about two weeks.
  • This represents a significant change from previous periods: Under the leadership of both Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il the window was an average of about 10 and 11 weeks respectively.
  • There has been a transformation in the types of kinetic provocations that North Korea has carried out over the last 20 years. The provocations are now overwhelmingly comprised of missile and nuclear tests rather than other types of conventional kinetic military actions.
  • This pattern suggests a provocation as early as two weeks before the South Korean elections on May 9th. The start of the provocation window falls on Military Foundation Day (April 25), a holiday in North Korea, and 10 days after the 105th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday on April 15th (KST).
  • In terms of the total volume of provocations, the largest uptick in the number of events over the sixty year period occurred between 1966-1969 and 2012-2017.
  • Sample size: The sample size for the Kim Jong-un period is small (one presidential and two national assembly elections).
  • Provocation: We define a provocation as an intentional action taken by North Korea that breaches the sovereignty of another country, causes significant personal injury or damage to property, and/or constitutes a serious violation of international law for particular diplomatic, military, or political objectives.
  • Correlation only: Our study indicates a pattern in North Korean provocations around South Korean elections. We do not suggest that elections cause the provocations. Our findings also do not deny that there may be multiple causes for the timing of North Korean actions including technology-related goals, military variables, and domestic-political objectives.
 
And now North Korea threatens Australia with nuke strike. What's next? North Korea threatens Bolivia with nuke strike? North Korea threatens Mozambique with nuke strike? They're like a kid that just got a new toy and they are determined to fit it into every conversation. Nuke strike! Nuke strike!

I know that they would love to be able to bully the rest of the world like how they bully their citizens.
 
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