NeoGAF's Spring Box Office Prediction Game

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Toothless

Member
Introduction

We haven't scored the winter game yet, but with the oncoming arrival of some big name films, it's time to start the spring game. We will be continuing the streamlined format of the winter game, as I believe it makes the game have more participation.

General rules: There will be a list of ten films at the end of this post that are eligible for you to rank. There are three sections: A, which is the ten films ranked by how they will do domestically; B, which are the top five worldwide; and C, the top three opening weekends. B and C sections are completely bonus though, so do not worry much about them. The game ends on June 6th.

A. Top 10 of the Spring Domestically

This is pretty simple. Rank the top 10 of the summer in order. All questions will be scored on June 6th, so keep that in mind when putting together your predictions. Here’s an example of what a perfect score from last year would’ve looked like.

1. Furious 7 - 350M
2. Cinderella - 201M
3. Home - 172M
4. Fifty Shades of Grey - 166M
5. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - 163M
6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - 129M
7. Kingsman: The Secret Service - 128M
8. Get Hard - 90M
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 - 68M
10. Focus - 53M

Scoring works like this: For every film in the correct spot, you get 10 points. For the gross you predict, every film you call within 20M, you get 10 points. If you call it within 30M, you get 5 points. If you miss it by 30-40M, you don’t lose points. If you miss it by 40M to 60M, you lose 5 points. For every 20M you miss after the first 60M, you lose 1 point per 20M in gross. Even if you miss it by 61M, you still lose a point. If you call a film within 5M, you get a bonus of 20 points; and if you call it within 2M, you get a bonus of 25 points.

Bonus points: If you call the top three positions right, in order, regardless of the gross, you will get a 75 point bonus. If you are able to call the top four positions right, in order, regardless of the gross, you will get a 150 point bonus. If you call five right, in order, regardless of gross, you will get a 300 point bonus. If you can call seven right in order, you get 750 bonus points. If you can call all 10 right, in order, you will get a 1000 point bonus. If you call spots 2-4 correctly, regardless of order, you will get a 150 point bonus (so if last year, I had Home as #4, Fifty Shades as #2, and SpongeBob as #3, I’d still get the bonus). If you call spots 5-7 correctly, you get a 200 point bonus.

B. Top 5 of the Spring Worldwide

In this one, don’t worry about gross; international numbers are hard to predict. These are all about the order. Once again, you need two for back-up in case of studios moving the films. For movies opening before January 29 worldwide, all the money will still be counted even if it’s made before January 29. Here’s an example of what a perfect score from last year could’ve looked like.

1. Furious 7
2. Fifty Shades of Grey
3. Cinderella
4. Kingsman: The Secret Service
5. Home

If you call the top 2 spots in order, you get a bonus of 100. If you can call the top 3 in order you will get a 250 point bonus. If you can call between the top 4 in order, a bonus of 400 and if you can call the top 5 WW films in order you will get a bonus of 750 points.

C. Top 3 Domestic Opening Weekends of the Spring

Gross once again does not matter, but the order does. Only 3-day weekends are counted; if the movie opens on a Wednesday, the Friday-Saturday-Sunday gross is what counts as the opening weekend. Night-before-previews are included on Friday openers, but not with movies that open earlier than Friday. Example:

1. Furious 7 - 147M
2. Fifty Shades of Grey - 85M
3. Cinderella - 68M

For every film you call correctly in the top three, regardless of order, you will receive 15 points. For every film you call in the exact spot it opens, you will get 25 points. If you are able to call 2 of the 3 correctly, you will receive a 75 point bonus. Call all three correctly, you get a 250 point bonus.

Bonus points: For every film in the top 3, and within 1M, you get 40 points. For every film in the top 3 and within 2.5M, you get 35 points. For every film in the top 3 and within 5M, you get 30 points. For every film in the top 3 and within 10M, you get 25 points. For every film in the top 3 and within 15M, you get 20 points. For every film in the top 3 and within 20M, you get 15 points. For every film in the top 3 and within 30M, you get 10 points.

You do not lose any points for films that are not in the top 3.

D. Eligible Films

Here’s a list of the films I've decided to deem eligible films for all the questions, with a trailer attached along with genre and release date:

Kung Fu Panda 3 - Animation - January 29
Deadpool - Action - February 12
Zoolander 2 - Comedy - February 12
Zootopia - Animation - March 4
10 Cloverfield Lane - Thriller - March 11
The Divergent Series: Allegiant - Action/Adventure - March 18
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - Action/Adventure - March 22
The Boss - Comedy - April 8
The Jungle Book - Adventure - April 15
The Huntsman Winter's War - Action/Adventure - April 22

E. FAQ

I’ll add some frequently asked questions here once you guys ask me questions. Maybe we won’t even have to use it! I’ll start it out though.

Q: When do I need my answers in by?
A: By January 28, 7PM EST as that’s when the first showings of Kung Fu Panda 3 begin in the United States.

Q: But I wanted to predict a film that's not one of the ten you chose! Why don't you add it in?
A: If there's a film that a lot of people want to predict that I skipped over (like not God's Not Dead 2 or something), I'd be happy to add it as an option. Otherwise, tough luck.

F. Conclusion

I'm glad that I keep on getting a decent response on this game. As we await Star Wars results (and the rest of Winter), this will be fun for another certain mega-movie and the other big films. I hope everyone has fun posting their predicts and hopefully, we'll get even more participation this go-around! Enjoy!
 

inm8num2

Member
A. Top 10 of the Spring Domestically

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 465M
2. The Jungle Book - 225M
3. Zootopia - 175M
4. Kung Fu Panda 3 - 155M
5. Deadpool - 120M
6. The Huntsman Winter's War - 110M
7. The Divergent Series: Allegiant - 95M
8. The Boss - Comedy - 80M
9. 10 Cloverfield Lane - 75M
10. Zoolander 2 - 70M

B. Top 5 of the Spring Worldwide

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
2. The Jungle Book
3. Kung Fu Panda 3
4. Zootopia
5. The Huntsman Winter's War

C. Top 3 Domestic Opening Weekends of the Spring

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 165M
2. The Jungle Book - 70M
3. Zootopia - 55M
 

Toothless

Member
Thinking of switching in Cloverfield instead of London Has Fallen, because come on, LHF looks like a boring bomb in waiting
 
Both make for great date movies
Deadpool should warm hearts worldwide
Z5gxHFg.jpg
 

LaNaranja

Member
As someone who knows nothing about box office predicting, here come some predictions straight out of my asshole:

A. Top 10 of Spring Domestically

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 650m
2. The Jungle Book - 250m
3. Zootopia - 200m
4. The Huntsman Winter's War - 180m
5. Kung Fu Panda 3 - 150m
6. The Divergent Series: Allegiant - 115m
7. Deadpool - 110m
8. 10 Cloverfield Lane - 100m
9. The Boss - 80m
10. Zoolander 2 -75m

B. Top 5 of Spring Worldwide

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
2. The Jungle Book
3. Kung Fu Panda 3
4. Zootopia
5. The Huntsman Winter's War

C. Top 3 Domestic Opening Weekends of Spring

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 220m
2. The Jungle Book - 70m
3. The Huntsman Winter's War - 65m


Edit: For some reason I thought Divergent was that terrible looking movie staring Chloë Grace Moretz and thus had it at the very bottom. Turns out I was thinking of "The 5th Wave." Predictions have been adjusted accordingly.
 
Top 10 Domestic
  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 575m
  2. The Jungle Book - 200m
  3. Deadpool - 175m
  4. Zootopia - 150m
  5. Kung Fu Panda 3 - 140m
  6. Zoolander 2 - 120m
  7. The Divergent Series: Allegiant - 115m
  8. The Huntsman Winter's War - 110m
  9. The Boss - 100m
  10. 10 Cloverfield Lane- 95m
Top 5 WW
  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 1.5b
  2. The Jungle Book - 750m
  3. Kung Fu Panda 3 - 6500m
  4. Zootopia - 550m
  5. The Huntsman Winter's War - 350m
Top 3 Opening Weekend
  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 195m
  2. Deadpool - 95m
  3. The Jungle Book - 85m
 

Toothless

Member
Well, sorry to the two people who already posted, but I've decided to change London Has Fallen to 10 Cloverfield Lane. That said, if you don't bother to edit beforehand, I'll score your two entries as if London Has Fallen was still in the game.
 

Toothless

Member
My entry:

A. Top 10 of the Spring Domestically

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 479M
  2. The Jungle Book - 291M
  3. Zootopia - 281M
  4. Kung Fu Panda 3 - 184M
  5. Deadpool - 125M
  6. The Boss - 106M
  7. The Huntsman Winter's War - 95M
  8. Zoolander 2 - 92M
  9. The Divergent Series: Allegiant - 88M
  10. 10 Cloverfield Lane - 87M

B. Top 5 of the Spring Worldwide

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
  2. Kung Fu Panda 3
  3. The Jungle Book
  4. Zootopia
  5. Deadpool

C. Top 3 Domestic Opening Weekends of the Spring

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 181M
  2. The Jungle Book - 92M
  3. Zootopia - 64M
 

Toothless

Member
Sorry to double-post, but this closes on Thursday. If we don't get at least three more participants, I'll just cancel the game. Don't really see much of a point with so little people caring.
 

jackdoe

Member
I'll throw my half-assed predictions into the ring. I'm surprised to see so many of you have Jungle Book as number 2. I personally think it's going to be Tomorrowland and Lone Ranger all over again.

Top 10 of Spring Domestically:

1) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - $400 million
2) Zootopia - $200 million
3) The Huntsman Winter's War - $180 million
4) Kung Fu Panda 3 - $150 million
5) Deadpool - $130 million
6) The Divergent Series: Allegiant - $125 million
7) The Boss - $110 million
8) Jungle Book - $95 million
9) Zoolander 2 - $85 million
10) Cloverfield Lane- $75 million
 

Thewonandonly

Junior Member
Domestic box office

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 700 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 300 milion
3. The Jungle Book 250 million
4. Zoolander 2 170 million
5. Deadpool 150 million
6. 10 Cloverfield Lane 120 milion
7. The divergent series: Allegiant 100 million
8. Zootopia 80 milion
9. The huntsman winter's war 70 million
10. The boss Never heard of it so 50 million

Damn am I to late :(
 

Toothless

Member
Domestic box office

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 700 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 300 milion
3. The Jungle Book 250 million
4. Zoolander 2 170 million
5. Deadpool 150 million
6. 10 Cloverfield Lane 120 milion
7. The divergent series: Allegiant 100 million
8. Zootopia 80 milion
9. The huntsman winter's war 70 million
10. The boss Never heard of it so 50 million

Damn am I to late :(

Yes, but no worries. Thanks to general lack of interest, the game has been cancelled. :(
 
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