On the contrary, casuals might enjoy a great looking cinematic experience provided by a top notch exclusive for some relaxing entertainment (sh*ts & giggle with friends/family whilst playing on story mode difficulty). Meanwhile from experience, I'd say those COD & Fifa players are some of the most literal hardcore enthusiast gamers you'll ever encounter, especially the first person shooter crowd. It's all about performance & online infrastructure. They spend hours upon hours playing multiplayer everyday & become experts at destroying casuals who might casually venture into a multiplayer match.
We'll see a lot of downplaying the power differential (if it's indeed evident), but it does matter to a lot of people. Xbox would get a large bulk of their lost 360 player base back if they have a reasonably priced console which is more powerful than the ps5.
Yes, they really have an exacerbated enthusiasm when playing fifa, cod and madden. But I would bet everything I have that 70% of that user base doesn't play exclusives. The majority of people I know who play fifa, who almost don't know the exclusives of any of the 2 consoles or if they know them, aren't interested, but what they do is buy the same sports game every year.
Regarding the last thing you said, I don't know if you didn't read me or I didn't express myself correctly. But don't minimize power per se, I said that if the power gap is not "substantial," nobody will care. Let's see, if there is a difference of 1 or 0.5 TF, the difference in performance in the real world is not going to be relevant.
In that case I think the exclusives will have a better criterion for enthusiasts.
One buys a console to play games, not to open the box and contemplate the gpu. By this I don't mean that exclusive of one console is better than the other, because that is completely subjective.
And yes, Xbox should have better performance in its markets where it has a better brand positioning, such as USA / UK