Today, we consider whether Sanchez should be an even tougher sell. Damning evidence came into focus when we pulled conventional wisdom into a room with an NFL personnel evaluator, a defensive backs coach (who wished to remain anonymous) and some advanced stats.
"It's not all Mark's fault, but you can clearly see pressure is not his friend in any way, and it's getting to him," ESPN analyst and former Philadelphia Eagles pro personnel director Louis Riddick said. "Every team that goes against him knows it. It's a given, known throughout the league, that he will crack."
The decision to play Sanchez four minutes into the fourth quarter against the Giants two weeks before Sunday's regular-season opener became a leading NFL storyline this preseason. It became one more symbol of organizational futility and another slap across Sanchez's face.
None of the other veteran quarterbacks competing for starting jobs this summer entered a preseason game as late as Sanchez did on the night he suffered his shoulder injury against the Giants. However, unlike Sanchez, none of the others finished 2012 as just the sixth qualifying quarterback in five years to perform at less than replacement level. And by replacement level, we're talking about the types of QBs teams might sign off the street, not the ones sought even as primary backups.
"What you don't see is a progression of the game slowing down, making fast decisions and getting rid of the ball regardless of the coverage," the defensive backs coach said. "Move around on him and it's almost like he has to wait to see what is going on. The game has never slowed down for the kid. If it's too fast now, there is no opportunity for growth."
Sanchez ranks last in Total QBR (34.7 out of 100, with 50 as average) and NFL passer rating (71.7) among 30 qualifying quarterbacks since entering the NFL in 2009. He ranks second to Ryan Fitzpatrick in the highest number of QB turnovers and 40th in touchdowns, both on a per-start basis. Last season brought a new low as Sanchez -- stripped of the supporting cast that had covered for him -- joined Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Jimmy Clausen, JaMarcus Russell and J.T. O'Sullivan as the only qualifying QBs since 2008 to finish a season as a sub-replacement contributor.
We're accustomed to hearing about replacement-level players in baseball. The metric has been adapted for football and applied to quarterbacks by taking into account efficiency (QBR) and usage (number of QB action plays) to reveal approximately how many points a team would lose if forced to replace its quarterback with a low-level backup for the same number of plays.
Last season, Peyton Manning was a league-high 147.8 points above replacement. He was a league-leading 86.0 points above what an average quarterback might provide. For reference, note that Josh Freeman ranked 17th in PAR (63.0) and 19th in points above average (6.4). Sanchez was last in PAR (minus-3.8) and PAA (minus-50.2).
Riddick and the defensive backs coach we consulted hit on a common theme with Sanchez. They think he has the smarts to master an offense and recognize in the film room what needs to be done. They suspect he can execute efficiently in practice. But they were certain he struggles to process information in real time consistently enough during game situations.
Jets fans might recall the time two years ago when the Baltimore Ravens' Ed Reed tipped off a likely blitz by creeping toward the line of scrimmage on the first play of a Sunday night game. Sanchez, who would go on to have four turnovers in that game, never saw Reed. And while there was some debate as to whether the offensive line should have adjusted the protection, this was the sort of play that recurs with Sanchez. It is one reason he has had at least five turnovers in a league-worst three games since 2009.
"I'll bet if he was sitting in the meeting room watching cutups of all Baltimore's favorite blitzes and running through it on Saturday night at the team hotel, immediately he could identify the blitz and how to check out of it," said Riddick, a former NFL safety. "Get in the game, though, put the helmet on, now you see Terrell Suggs, you see Ray Lewis across from you, the clock is ticking, the crowd is loud. That is functional pressure. It's not about your Wonderlic score, your 40 time or how you handle a 15-minute interview with a bunch of coaches and scouts. Now it's just you and your heartbeat is up there and it's time to perform. Some guys can't cross that divide."
